After taking two of three from the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays cap their nine-game road trip in Detroit, where they will start a three-game series against the Tigers on Friday. Detroit most recently split a two-game set with the Pirates.
At 66-45 on the season, the Rays enter play 21 games over .500 with 51 games left to play.
The Rays, slowly but surely, continue to slip out of the offensive malaise that’s plagued them throughout the month of July. The long ball reemerged in Houston and New York resulting in a hefty .464 SLG and .235 ISO over the last seven days. They are still having a difficult time getting timely hits with men on the bags, resulting in a .176 batting average with runners in scoring position against the Astros, and a .083 wRISP batting average against New York. Part of that is due to poor base running — I’m looking at you, Manuel Margot, and René Pinto — but they also continue to be unlucky in the box; Rays’ batters put up a .254 BABIP over the last seven days. All they can do is continue to put together quality at-bats, earn their walks, and make solid contact. The batting average will eventually regress to the norm and change in Tampa Bay’s favor.
The Tigers are 4-6 over the last 10 games, and it’s easy to see why. They average a little more than three runs per game and have slashed .228 BA/.306 OBP/.349 SLG/.655 OPS over the last seven days, resulting in an 87 wRC+ and a -5.6 wRAA. They have also kept the ball on the ground (1.73 GB/FB) across that stretch resulting in a light .349 SLG. Credit where it’s due, they don’t strike out at an extreme rate … well, that is unless their name happens to be Javier Báez.
The Rays enter play with an overall 3.80 ERA and 3.91 FIP (3.73 ERA and 3.56 FIP for the starters, 3.88 ERA, and 4.32 FIP for the relievers). Over the last seven days, however, Tampa Bay improved a touch (as compared to the previous seven days), maintaining a combined 5.54 ERA and 4.27 FIP (4.75 ERA and 4.03 FIP for the starters, 6.65 ERA and 4.61 FIP for the relievers).
Meanwhile, the Tigers have been okay on the bump, pitching to an overall 4.48 ERA and 4.17 FIP (4.75 ERA and 4.23 FIP for the starters, 4.15 ERA, and 4.10 FIP for the relievers). The pitching staff regressed over the last seven days, putting up a combined 5.55 ERA and a 4.09 FIP (6.23 ERA and a 3.62 FIP for the starters, 4.62 ERA and a 4.73 FIP for the relievers).
Tampa Bay is 3-0 this season against the Tigers this season.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Zack Littell (1-2, 4.39 ERA, 3.35 FIP), Aaron Civale (5-2, 2.34 ERA, 3.54 FIP), and Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 3.15 ERA, 3.18 FIP). AJ Hinch will counter with Reese Olson (1-4, 4.71 ERA, 4.08 FIP), Tarik Skubal (1-1, 4.57 ERA, 1.33 FIP), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.
Zack Littell allowed two runs on eight hits over five innings against the Astros on Sunday. He struck out four. While Sunday’s game was expected to be a bullpen day for the Rays, Littell managed to last five innings and was stretched out to 82 pitches (58 strikes, 71% strike rate, 13% SwStr%) after having thrown fewer than three innings in all but one of his appearances this season. While he scattered eight hits, Littell held the Astros scoreless heading into the fifth, where he allowed back-to-back singles and a double during a two-run frame. Overall, he maintains an improved 4.39 ERA and 3.35 FIP, with a 1.48 WHIP, and a 6.00 K/BB across 29.2 innings.
Reese Olson allowed four runs on eight hits over six innings against the Marlins on Friday. He struck out two and did not record a walk. Olson made his third straight start since the All-Star Break and completed at least six innings for the first time this season. However, Olson continues to struggle with the long ball, having now allowed four over his past three turns and eight across 11 total appearances. Olson has been able to eat up innings at the big-league level, but his results have been subpar and his role remains in flux. Overall, he maintains a 4.71 ERA and a 4.08 FIP, with a 1.13 WHIP, and a 4.70 K/BB across 49.2 innings. Olson relies primarily on a 95 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action and an 85 mph slider that has short glove-side cut, while also mixing in a firm 88 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, a 95 mph sinker that has slight arm-side run, and a 79 mph curveball that has exceptional bite and has slight glove-side movement.
Aaron Civale tossed six shutout innings while allowing three hits and two walks. He struck out four. Civale worked an efficient outing after needing only 81 pitches (51 strikes, 63% strike rate, 9% SwStr%) to complete six frames. He has allowed five hits or fewer in each of his six starts in July and capped things off this month with his fourth quality start. Overall, he maintains a 2.34 ERA and a 3.54 FIP, with a 1.04 WHIP, and a 2.64 K/BB across 77.0 innings.
Tarik Skubal allowed four runs on six hits across 4.2 innings on Sunday against the Marlins. He had no walks and struck out four. One game after logging five scoreless frames, Skubal was less dominant, and he failed to complete five innings for the fourth time in five starts. The Tigers are being cautious with their lefty in his return from flexor tendon surgery, and he was limited to 77 pitches in this contest. Overall, Skubal maintains a 4.57 ERA and a 1.33 FIP, with a 0.97 WHIP, and a 9.00 K/BB across 21.2 innings. He relies primarily on a whiffy 96 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action and an 88 mph work-killer slider, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone, a 96 mph sinker, and a 76 mph curveball that has sharp downward bite. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (2-4), Manuel Margot (1-3), Harold Ramírez (1-2, 2B)
Tyler Glasnow allowed one run on three hits and two walks over seven innings against the Yankees. He struck out eight and threw 94 pitches (61 strikes, 65% strike rate, 18% SwStr%). Glasnow now has eight or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts while pitching to a 2.08 ERA in that span. He has returned to elite form after missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury. Overall, Glasnow’s ERA is down to 3.15 with a 3.18 FIP, a 1.08 WHIP, and 4.36 K/BB across 12 starts (68.2 innings) this season.
TBA
Noteworthiness
— Another day, another injury. After leaving Wednesday’s contest in the fourth inning due to tightness on the outside of his forearm, Shane McClanahan made his way back to St. Pete where he underwent imaging. The MRI showed “something,” and the team placed the left-hander on the 15-Day Injured List. The Rays still don’t have a set diagnosis from initial testing, and McClanahan is slated for further evaluation in the coming days. He will need at least two weeks on the shelf. We will have more on this as news becomes available.
— Tampa Bay could receive reinforcements this weekend in one, Andrew Kittredge. The right-hander has been with Triple-A Durham for each of his last seven appearances. He allowed six earned runs across just one-third of an inning in an outing on July 23 (resulting in a bloated 9.00 ERA, but a 3.32 FIP), and one run five days later, but has otherwise been effective.