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Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Sweep O’s, Head to Toronto For A Three Game Set

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Matt Joyce and Yunel Escobar celebrate after highly contested home run in Sunday's Rays/Orioles game in Baltimore. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times)

Matt Joyce and Yunel Escobar celebrate after highly contested home run in Sunday’s Rays/Orioles game in Baltimore. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times)

The Tampa Bay Rays ride into Toronto Monday on a huge wave of momentum, following the Rays 3-1 win against — and series sweep of — the Baltimore Orioles. Sunday’s match-up wasn’t a high scoring affair like the previous two games, however the Rays scored just enough to win the game, while Matt Moore shut the door on the Orioles in an excellent outing. Matt Moore became the second left handed starter age 24 or younger to start a season 8-0, following an outstanding 7.0 IP/5 H/1 R/1 ER/1 BB/3 K outing. The first pitcher to do so? Oh, just some guy named Babe Ruth.

Moore certainly wasn’t overpowering, only striking out three Orioles hitters. He was able to smother any of the Orioles uprisings though, giving up just one hit in four wRISP scenarios. You wouldn’t know that Moore has had a problem with walking batters by looking at his final line; Moore walked only one Sunday. If there is one criticism of Moore’s outing, it would be the number of three ball counts he got himself into. He, however, was able to execute the perfect pitch, inducing a good numbers of ground-outs and pop-outs.

The surging Tampa Bay Rays have now won eight of their last ten games, while the Blue Jays have lost their last two games, going five-and-five over the same ten game stretch. We — for the most part — are familiar with what the Blue Jays have to offer since both teams faced off against one another on their recent ten-game home stand. The Rays are now three games over .500 for the first time this season, tied with the Orioles for third place in the AL East. Though a series win against the Jays may not help Tampa Bay with divisional placement, it would provide a springboard of momentum for the Rays who are set to take on the Yankees in the following series.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters

Rays and Blue Jays series starters

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days

Rays and Blue Jays offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days

Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers

Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers

Rays Hitters Vs. the Blue Jays Series Starters

RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, “Dickey will take the mound Monday against Tampa Bay, as Sunday’s game at the Yankees has been postponed due to the weather, Sportsnet reports.” The Rays last saw Dickey a few weeks back at the Trop in a game where he posted a 6.0 IP/5 H/3 R/2 ER/ 5 BB/5 HR slash line. Dickey improved on things in his following start against the Giants, giving up two runs on six hits, while striking out 10 and walking two. As has been his year, it’s kind of hard to guess which RA Dickey you’ll face. Only one thing is certain: he’s not the dominant pitcher that he was in 2012. The hot hitting Tampa Bay Rays will look to pounce on Dickey and the Blue Jays Monday, though you can’t rule out the idea that he could string together a second consecutive quality start. Too, Dickey’s numbers against the Rays don’t really make a compelling argument in favor of Tampa Bay. Key Match-ups: Kelly Johnson (2-7, 2B, BB).

Ramon Ortiz: Per Rotowire, “Ortiz will make his scheduled start Tuesday against the Rays, Barry Davis of Sportsnet reports.” The current Rays have little-to-no experience against the 39 year-old Ramon Ortiz. In fact, only three players have accrued any at-bats against the fastball/slider/changeup pitcher — Kelly Johnson, James Loney, and Luke Scott. Largely a pitch to contact pitcher, hitters have made Ortiz pay for any mistakes, especially on his two-seam fastball. Key Match-ups: Kelly Johnson (2-5, HR, 3 RBI), Luke Scott (2-5, 3B).

Mark Buehrle: Per Rotowire, “Buehrle allowed five runs on six hits, walking three and striking out four over six-plus innings of a 5-0 loss to the Yankees on Friday night.” Tampa Bay lost to the Blue Jays by a score of 8-7 the last time the Rays faced Buehrle. It should be noted that the Jays win had absolutely nothing to to with Buerhle’s performance though. Buehrle got tagged for seven runs (all earned) on nine hits — including a pair of homers — and two walks in a six inning outing. His last outing against the Yankees wasn’t much better, posting six innings of five run ball. The Rays have now posted a combined .324 BA/.356 OBP/.468 SLG/.824 OPS slash line, with eight players hitting over .300 against Buehrle. Key Match-ups: Yunel Escobar (4-9, 2B, RBI, BB), Sam Fuld (1-3), Desmond Jennings (1-3, BB), Kelly Johnson (3-9, RBI), James Loney (3-9, 2 2B), Evan Longoria (6-18, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Jose Molina (9-27, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Sean Rodriguez (4-10, 2B, RBI).

Noteworthiness

  • Tampa Bay split the recent four-game series with the Blue Jays at two games apiece. 
  • The Rays seek their 13th win in 18 games at Rogers Centre on Monday.
  • Per Yahoo Sports, “The Blue Jays were outscored 12-2 in those two games in New York after posting a 36-15 margin in their previous four.”
  • The Rays have outscored the Blue Jays 93-54 in their last 17 road games in the series.
  • Monday marks Jake Odorizzi’s debut with the Rays. Odorizzi is 4-0 with a 3.83 ERA in eight starts at Triple-A Durham this season. He was 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his first two major league starts last September with the Royals, both against Cleveland.
  • Also per Yahoo Sports, “Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria doubled off the right-hander in that game as part of his career-high, 13-game hit streak. Longoria, batting .385 (20 for 52) during that run, is 17 for 33 (.515) during an eight-game hit streak against the Blue Jays.”

 

Rays Option Three Players, Noteworthiness

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Chris Archer signing autographs during Spring Training. (Photo courtesy of TBO)

Chris Archer signing autographs during Spring Training. (Photo courtesy of TBO)

Note: I already wrote about the optioning of three more pitchers on our Tumblr page, but felt it might be worthwhile to re-post it here.

The Rays have optioned three more pitchers to Triple-A Durham — Chris Archer, Alex Torres, and Jake Odorizzi.

Rays beat writer Marc Topkin noted, “Archer initially was surprised to be sent down this soon, but after a “Great conversation” with team officials (he) understood, and expects to be back.”

“Mixed with my conviction that I can compete at this level and with that conversation that we just had, there are no malicious feelings, there’s no like negative feelings going to Triple-A, going to the minor leagues for who knows how long,” Archer said. “I know I have to continue to develop, and something’s going to happen – every year someone goes down or they need an extra arm. So I’m going to make the most of my opportunity when I come up but continue to maximize my potential in the minor leagues.”

I’m frankly a bit surprised by this move. Archer posted an excellent 7 IP/1 H/0 R/3 BB/5 K/0.00 ERA/0.045 OBA/0.57 WHIP line in three Grapefruit League appearances, and seemed poised to appear on the opening day roster. This leaves Roberto Hernandez and Jeff Niemann to battle it out for the fifth spot in the starting rotation.

A few questions lay in the wake of this move.

Will Archer’s imminent return occur sooner or later? What’s more, what roster moves could accompany his return? Also, is this an acknowledgment that Niemann will more than likely get the fifth starting spot, leaving Hernandez to work in the long reliever role? With Niemann’s history of injuries, I’d imagine that the Rays may be assuming that the tall RHP will go down, and it’s just a matter of time when. Finally, Could the Rays be priming the pump for a mid-season Niemann trade?

Rumors of the willingness for the Rays to trade Jeff Niemann have circulated the last few years, however his trade value has plummeted because of chronic injuries. It would make sense for Tampa Bay to rebuild Niemann’s trade equity, inevitably using him as leverage for some sort of deal in July. As the late Joe Strummer once said, “The future is unwritten.” We’ll just have to wait and see how all of this pans out.

Noteworthiness:

The Rays lost their third straight Grapefruit League game yesterday in a low scoring, 3-1 game against the Yankees. Offensively speaking, the Rays were quiet. However, Alex Cobb absolutely dominated in his five inning stint on the bump. Cobb posted an impressive 5 IP/2 H/0 R/0 BB/6 K line Tuesday, now boasting a 14 IP/8 H/2 R/2 ER/1 HR/1 BB/18 K/.167 OBA/0.64 WHIP slash line, with a 1.29 ERA on the spring. Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, and Will Inman weren’t half bad either, combining for three innings of one hit baseball, allowing no walks while striking out three. The Rays have another off-day today.

Of the First Games of Spring Training and David Price (Updated)

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David Price in the foreground, Roberto Hernandez on the mound. (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

David Price in the foreground, Roberto Hernandez on the mound. (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

With Spring Training now in full gear, the Rays will see their first Grapefruit League action Saturday, taking on both the Pirates and the Red Sox in a pair of split-squad games. The Rays will not have an intraleauge game this week because of the split squad games. Slated to pitch against the Pirates are Roberto Hernandez and Jeff Niemann – two pitchers battling it out for the last spot on the rotation. Enny Romero will get the start against the Red Sox in Ft. Myers. Chris Archer, who’s also battling for a spot on the rotation, will get the start Sunday, with Alex Cobb and David Price following on Monday and Tuesday respectively.

Roberto Hernandez has apparently been impressive so far this spring, which could make the battle for the last spot on the rotation interesting. Rays skipper Joe Maddon was quoted as saying,

I love the quality of the seven or eight, whatever it’s going to be, I love the quality of the decision-making there. It’s going to be very difficult.

Hernandez is expected to stick as a long reliever, though a quality spring will make it very hard on Maddon to make a final decision. In all honesty, I think the final spot on the rotation is up for Niemann to lose. Chris Archer is ready, and hungry, for a spot, as are both Hernandez and Jake Odorizzi. A weak spring on Niemann’s part will, arguably, spell the pen for him.

In other news, according to an MLB Trade Rumors piece, David Price was quoted as saying that he “would love” to continue pitching for the Rays over the long-term, though the odds of the Rays retaining him over the long-term are nil at best. Price mentioned that he’s “not taking a discount” to sign long-term with the Rays, while also noting,

I don’t play this game for the money, but I don’t want to be under-appreciated. What I’ve done for this organization so far, I feel like I’ve helped this organization a great deal. So if they want to show me some appreciation, then fine.

Put it this way, I highly doubt that the Rays will be able to net enough money via the projected new revenue streams, and ticket sales, to keep Price here past the 2014 season. Many have speculated that this could be his last season with the Rays. Whatever the case, it’s all but certain that King Felix’s huge contract will have an impact on any contract talks between Price and the Rays, or any other team that may be looking to get their hands on the 2012 Cy Young Award winner. And though a long-term contract with Price may not surpass that of King Felix, whatever he may be seeking will likely be more than the Rays can dole out. In the words of a friend, “I’d say enjoy Price while he’s here and hope like hell the Rays can get some impact pieces in return for him before he hits free agency.”

Noteworthiness

If you missed our Links For Finks post, you missed the MLB 411 composite projections. You just may want to check that out.

Also, the Tampa Tribune published an article titled, Ybor City apartments pitched as Tampa Bay Rays stadium site in their February 21st issue. The author of the article asserts that the property in question, sandwiched between Ybor City and Downtown Tampa, addresess a number of issues the city has been dealing with for years in that neighborhood, such as blight and lack of economic growth.  However, as Noah Pransky noted in his latest piece,

But before you waste too much time giving the proposal any credibility, realize a few things:

1. Finding land isn’t the problem in the Stadium Saga, it’s finding money to build a stadium.  And of course, this proposal mentions nothing of a stadium funding source.

2. There are a dozen reasons why a stadium in blighted Ybor City doesn’t make sense.

3. Fixing blight is a big reason why the Trop sits where it does, and how is that working out for baseball fans?

In short, I wouldn’t hold my breath on this one. Then again, I reckon a trip to Ikea followed by an early evening game could be nice.

Links For Finks

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It’s a fairly slow Rays news day – at least so far. That said, here are a few links to some mandatory reading. You will be tested on the subject matter, so no Cliff’s Notes for you skimmers!

Hot-Stove: Welcome Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery and Leonard

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Welcome to the Rays, Wil.

Welcome to the Rays, Wil.

To say that Monday night’s seven player trade between the Rays and the Royals was contentious would be an understatement. The move made ripples in all corners of the baseball world, while setting the local sports talk radio airwaves ablaze. Gone are RHP James Shields and Wade Davis. In return, the Rays received über OF prospect Wil Myers along with Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. The initial opinion is that the Rays raked in this deal, at least in the long-term.

We Rays fans have watched our team deal some of the bigger named players for years now. Players like Matt Garza, Delmon Young, Edwin Jackson, and Scott Kazmir (among others) rose to prominence with the Rays, only to be traded. Trades that found many a Rays fan scratching his/her head. Those moves were easier to swallow, after all the above mentioned players haven’t been nearly as effective since parting ways with the Rays.

This one stings a bit more. Shields really doesn’t have the downsides of Garza, Jackson, or Kazmir. And well, if the Rays could have afforded to keep Shields and Davis on the roster, they would have. The fact of the matter is that the Rays have not been able to sustain consistent rosters on a $35-$70MM payroll. Ahem, I guess we could point the fingers of blame at those that are more than willing to offer excuses for why they cannot get out to the Trop as opposed to actually going to games. I digress.

This move isn’t all doom and gloom. In fact this trade is pretty damn great, especially for the Rays. So who are the new faces that will eventually be seen around the clubhouse? Let’s take a peek.

Wil Myers, OF
Wil Myers (Matt Ryerson/US Presswire)

Wil Myers (Matt Ryerson/US Presswire)

Described as having “big time power” OF Wil Myers has a very real chance of winning a starting position with his new team following Spring Training. Furthermore, Myers has above average defensive skills, and an accurate plus arm which make him an Myers has been called the best power-hitting prospect in the minor leagues, and his ranking as the best minor league player by Baseball America only bolsters that reputation. Myers hit .303 with 64 home runs, 259 RBI and has a slugging percentage of .522 in his four minor league seasons. Last season he posted a .314 BA/.387 OBP/.600 SLG/.987 OPS line, with a combined 37 home runs and 109 RBI. Not to shabby for the 22 year-old prospect. Flaws? Myers has the tendency to swing and miss. Bleacher Report put it best,

Last season, between two minor league levels, he struck out 140 times in 522 at-bats. In 2011, he struck out 87 times in 354 at-bats. Those numbers could be worse, but no one is going to mistake this kid for a contact hitter anytime soon.

Myers struck out 140 times in 134 games in 2012. It was also his first season implementing a new, more aggressive approach at the plate. As his pitch recognition inevitably improves with experience, his strikeout and walk rates will even out. Whether that comes from time spent with Triple-A Durham fails to be seen at the moment. Nevertheless, Tampa Bay has Myers under their control for (at least) six years. That’s more than enough time for Myers to become a force with the Rays.

Acquiring Myers may have been a risky move, especially since he has no major league experience. However Myers’ upsides, by and far, outweigh any of the risks therein.

Wil Myers offensive statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Wil Myers offensive statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Jake Odorizzi (Peter Aiken-USA Today Sports)

Jake Odorizzi (Peter Aiken-USA Today Sports)

Selected in the supplemental first round of the 2008 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers, and ranked as the Royals fifth best prospect in 2012 by Baseball America, Odorizzi has a fairly impressive minor league résumé.

Odorizzi has posted a 3.50 ERA in five minor league seasons, with a 3/1 K/BB ratio. In 2012, Odorizzi spent most of his time in Triple-A where he was able to boast some pretty good numbers against righties and lefties alike, posting a .279 OBA/.339 OBP/.442 SLG line against righties, and a .229 OBA/.301 OBP/.332 SLG line against lefties.

In 2012 Odorizzi gave up 12 homers, striking out 88 and walking 40 in 460 total plate appearances, relenting 41 runs (35 earned). A contact pitcher by all accounts, Bleacher Report noted that,

Even though he didn’t miss as many bats in Triple-A, he did post a 2.93 ERA in 107.1 innings—all the more impressive in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Odorizzi has a 92-95 MPH fastball with some late sink to the arm side, a nice 12-to-6 curveball, a slider, and a changeup in his repertoire. His tendency to pitch up in the zone makes him vulnerable against keeping the ball in the yard. Too, the command on his curveball is a bit shaky. He will probably need a little work in Durham to refine his command, as well as to work on pitch sequencing.

Screen Shot 2012-12-10 at 8.26.04 PM

Jake Odorizzi pitching statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Mike Montgomery, LHP
Mike Montgomery (John Sleezer/Kansas City Star)

Mike Montgomery (John Sleezer/Kansas City Star)

Ranked as the Royals top prospect upon entering the 2011 season, Mike Montgomery is a left-handed pitcher who, as Bleacher Report put it, had been “on the fast track to the major leagues.” That was prior to suffering a forearm/elbow injury which cost him two months on the DL. He hasn’t been quite the same since his return, posting a 5.32 ERA and 4.12 BB/9 in over 150 innings in 2011.

Montgomery was then demoted to Double-A Northwest Arkansas after posting a 5.69 ERA and 4.22 BB/9 in 91.2 innings of work.

Pitch wise, Montgomery had a fastball that was sitting in the mid-90’s prior to his injury. He also had the ability ramp up the velocity when he needed. Whether he’ll regain that ability is a bit hazy at the moment.

Montgomery’s changeup has received above-average grades and he has a curveball that causes hitters to swing and miss. His curve is a pitch that will also need to be tightened and thrown with more velocity.

Make no mistake about it though; Montgomery was dealing prior to his injury. And if there’s any organization that can get the 23-year-old back on track, it’s the Rays. Perhaps a change of scenery will do him well.

Mike Montgomery pitching statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Mike Montgomery pitching statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Patrick Leonard, 3B
Patrick Leonard at the Trop no less. Kismet??

Patrick Leonard at the Trop no less. Kismet??

Patrick Leonard is the least experienced player of the group acquired by the Rays. Leonard is a 6’4”, 225-pound third baseman with power and good plate discipline. Leonard posted a .251 BA/.340 OBP/.494 SLG/.834 OPS line, with 14 homers and 46 RBI in 235 at-bats with Burlington in 2012. As per his scouting report, Leonard is a right-handed hitter that “has an impressive feel for the strike zone given his lack of experience, which, in turn, allows him to utilize his above-average raw power. Even though a majority of his pop is currently to the pull side, his advanced pitch recognition suggests he’ll learn to use the whole field with more experience.”

Whether he’ll stay at third, or eventually make the transition to first base or left-field as he matures is still up in question.

 

 

Patrick Leonard offensive statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Patrick Leonard offensive statistics (Courtesy of Baseball America)

Whatever your thoughts may be on this move, Lookout Landing offered a bit of perspective that may find you basking in the knowledge that the Rays absolutely raked:

The entire Rays front office, right this moment, is celebrating naked in a champagne jacuzzi. It was the cheapest champagne the corner store had available, but this champagne isn’t for drinking. And besides, the Rays just saved millions and millions of dollars. The Rays cut costs and improved the organization’s long-term outlook by leaps and bounds.

Last but not least, I wanted to take the opportunity to thank Shields for all that he’d done for and with the Rays. I can only hope that Shields’ impact will be felt among the younger pitchers on the starting rotation. I’ll be rootin’ for ya, Juego G…just not in games that you start against the Rays!