After splitting a four-game series against the A’s, the Tampa Bay Rays will cap their seven-game west coast road trip in San Diego, where they will start a three-game series against the Padres on Friday. The Padres took two of three from the Guardians this week.
At 50-22 on the season, the Rays enter play 28 games over .500, and 5.0 games up on the second-place Orioles in the AL East.
Pitting their big-league-best record against a team that is the worst in all of baseball should’ve been easy for the Rays. Yet, the Athletics entered on a hot streak and took the first two games of the set before the Rays bounced back to earn the split. That’s baseball, flush it.
Tampa Bay, who’s scored the second most runs per game in ’23, was held to a measly four in the first two contests but came back with six on Wednesday and four on Thursday. The cooler air dampened their home run-hitting ways until the series finale when they popped a couple, including one off the bat of Manuel Margot, who hadn’t hit a homer since April. Speaking of Margot, the outfielder started to get toasty in Oakland, going 6-12 with four doubles, a homer, four runs scored, and three RBI over the life of the series.
The Rays still lead the league in stolen bases and slugging percentage, along with the second-highest on-base percentage although they hit a weird rut against a typically terrible pitching team.
The Padres have been an underperforming team this season, yet a 5-2 stretch finds them just two games below the elusive .500 mark. It’s anyone’s guess how a team that boasts Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis Jr. struggles to tread water for 70 games, yet here we are. Nevertheless, they are averaging 4.25 runs per game, which is in the bottom third of baseball. It should be noted that San Diego has MLB’s best walk rate and is top 10 in steals, although they struggle to get base hits.
Credit where it’s due, the Padres were pretty good the last week, slashing .275 BA/.359 OBP/.541 SLG/.900 OPS with a beefy 145 wRC+ (27 points higher than Tampa Bay despite the fact they have scored the same number of runs over that stretch) and a gaudy .266 ISO. In other words, in spite of the middling season numbers, San Diego is absolutely capable of inflicting damage. Be that as it may, that production was over a very small sample size. It will be up to the Rays’ pitching staff to put the kibosh on the Padres for the next three days.
While there have been some bumps in the road, pitching hasn’t been as much of an issue for the Rays, who held the A’s to nine total runs. They enter play boasting an overall 3.53 ERA and 3.99 FIP (3.11 ERA and 3.48 FIP for the starters, 4.01 ERA and 4.56 FIP for the relievers). Over the last week, Tampa Bay maintains a 3.54 ERA and 3.64 FIP (4.68 ERA and 3.62 FIP for the starters, 2.22 ERA and 3.67 FIP for the relievers) which is an improvement for the maligned bullpen, but a regression for the starting rotation. Pitching also hasn’t been much of a problem for the Padres, who maintain an overall 3.77 ERA and 4.14 FIP (4.10 ERA and 4.21 FIP for the starters, 3.27 ERA and 4.03 FIP for the relievers).
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Shane McClanahan (10-1, 2.18 ERA, 3.22 FIP), Zach Eflin (8-2, 3.28 ERA, 3.22 FIP), and Yonny Chirinos (3-1, 2.35 ERA, 4.51 FIP) in some capacity. Bob Melvin will counter with Yu Darvish (5-4, 4.30 ERA, 3.77 FIP), former Ray Blake Snell (2-6, 3.78 ERA, 4.47 FIP), and Joe Musgrove (4-2, 4.37 ERA, 4.23 FIP).
Shane McClanahan allowed three runs on four hits and one walk while striking out five over seven innings against the Rangers on Sunday. McClanahan had some trouble in the third inning when he allowed all three runs and four of his five baserunners. Nevertheless, this was his fourth quality start in his last five outings, and it’s just the second time he’s given up three or more runs all season. He now maintains a 2.18 ERA and 3.22 FIP, with a 1.11 WHIP, 3.07 K/BB through 82.2 innings (14 starts) on the season.
Yu Darvish allowed four runs on five hits and four walks with six strikeouts over 5.1 innings against the Rockies on Friday. He had a strong start going before fading in the sixth inning. Darvish has given up 14 runs over his last 21 innings, although seven of those runs came in a short start versus the Yankees. On the season, the veteran right-hander has managed a 4.30 ERA and a 3.77 FIP, with a 1.16 WHIP, and 3.36 K/BB through 69 innings (12 outings). He relies primarily on an 84 mph slider that sweeps across the zone, while also mixing in a whiffy 95 mph fourseam fastball, a 94 mph sinker, a 91 mph cutter, a 75 mph curveball that has exceptional bite and glove-side movement, and a hard 90 mph splitter that has slight cutting action. Darvish is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Yandy Díaz (1-3, 2B), Luke Raley (2-5)
Zach Eflin allowed four runs on five hits and two walks over 4.2 innings against the Athletics on Monday. He struck out six. Eflin had arguably his worst showing of the season, and he failed to reach five innings for the first time in the ’23 campaign. However, he is still in the midst of a career year. His 1.00 WHIP is eighth-best in the majors, and he’s on pace to set career highs in strikeouts and wins. Overall, he maintains a 3.28 ERA and 3.22 FIP across 71.1 innings, with a 6.53 K/BB. Eflin is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in five career starts against the Rays.
Blake Snell was removed from Sunday’s contest against the Rockies due to swelling in his ankle after he was hit by a comebacker on his left ankle in the bottom of the seventh inning. In the outing, he allowed a run on three hits and no walks while striking out 12 in seven innings on 85 pitches (57 strikes, 67% strike rate). Overall, the former Ray maintains a 3.78 ERA and a 4.47 FIP, with a 2.19 K/BB, and a 1.33 WHIP across 69.0 innings. Snell relies primarily on a 95 mph fourseam fastball, while also mixing in an 87 mph swing-and-miss changeup, an 82 mph curveball that has sweeping glove-side movement and sharp downward bite, and a whiffy 89 mph slider. He has never faced his former team. Key Matchup: Harold Ramírez (1-3, RBI)
Yonny Chirinos allowed two hits and a walk while striking out two over 3.2 scoreless innings Tuesday versus the Athletics. This was his first scoreless outing since April 23. It’s unclear if the right-hander will be deployed as a traditional starter or a bulk guy going forward. He’s pitched to a 2.35 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, with a 0.94 WHIP, and a 1.42 K/BB through 38.1 innings over nine appearances (two starts) this season.
Joe Musgrove allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out five over six innings against the Guardians on Tuesday. Musgrove allowed multiple runs for the first time in four starts, although he picked up his third quality start over that stretch. The right-hander has started to get through six innings more regularly after failing to do so in his first five starts of the season. He’s now at a 4.37 ERA and a 4.23 FIP, with a 1.33 WHIP, and 3.36 K/BB over 47.1 innings through nine starts. Musgrove relies primarily on a whiffy 93 mph fourseam fastball that has heavy sinking action, a 90 mph cutter with strong cutting action, and an 81 mph curveball that has slight glove-side movement, while also mixing in an 83 mph slider that sweeps across the zone, an 87 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, and a 93 mph sinker with strong sinking action. Musgrove is 0-0 with a 4.00 ERA in two career outings (one start) against Tampa Bay. Key Matchup: Francisco Mejía (1-3, 2B)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
San Diego’s finest supergroup. One part Pinback, one part Mrs. Magician, and two parts Rocket From The Crypt…among others. Their 2022 eponymous LP ruled and still does.