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The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees part four — a series preview

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The difference in the series finale against the Marlins: A two-out walkoff grand slam by INF Daniel Robertson. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

On Monday evening a pair of American League East rivals will begin a three-game series at the Trop, where the Tampa Bay Rays are set to grapple with the New York Yankees. The Rays are coming off their second consecutive series loss, while Yankees split a weather shortened series against their cross town rivals.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay has struggled of late, and the Rays did lose their first two games against Miami, but they were able to avoid an embarrassing home sweep at the hands of the Fish thanks to a five run rally in the bottom of the ninth to walk away with a 6-4 win. The big blow for the Rays came off the bat of Daniel Robertson, who hit a pinch-hit walkoff grand slam.

New York has the third best record in the American League, yet they have been average of late — entering the series 5-5 in the Yankees last 10 games. They have not been as strong on the road as at home, and have gone 16-22 at the Trop extending back to 2013. Still, the Yankees have a potent offense and will need to be pitched well against.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

It’s not often you see the Rays out-performing the Yankees in the batter’s box, but the numbers don’t lie. A pitching glitch prior to the All-Star Break overshadows a Rays offense that has plated at least five runs in nine of their last 13 games, and has averaged 6.1 runs per game over that stretch.

Can they continue that trend against Luis Severino and company? That clearly will be a challenge. But, if the Rays are going to stave off the vultures at the trade deadline, and if they truly see themselves as a Wildcard contending club, albeit a fringe one at that, they will have perform well this week — and, ideally, walk away with a series win.

New York leads the season series 5-4 so far, although Tampa Bay swept the most recent matchup at Tropicana Field (June 22-24).

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on the bullpen led by Hunter Wood (0-0, 2.70 ERA), Chih-Wei Hu (3-6, 5.02 ERA at AAA) — who could make a spot start for LHP Blake Snell, who was placed on the 10-day DL — and Nathan Eovaldi (3-4, 4.26 ERA) over the next three days. Aaron Boone will counter with Luis Severino (14-2, 2.31 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.54 ERA), and Luis Cessa (1-1, 3.00 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Hunter Wood will serve as the opener for Monday’s “bullpen day” game. The right-hander has been effective in his limited opportunities this season, performing to a 2.70 ERA and compiling 12 strikeouts over 13-2/3 innings. This will mark Wood’s second start of the season, with the first having come July 11, when he tossed 22 pitches in a scoreless first inning against the Tigers. Long relievers Ryan Yarbrough (8-5, 3.65 ERA) and/or Matt Andriese (2-4, 4.34 ERA) will likely follow.

Luis Severino yielded four runs on nine hits and a walk over five innings on Thursday. He gave up two home runs and struck out just one batter in the no-decision. Severino came into Thursday’s start with a 10.4 K/9, so the one-strikeout performance was surprising. He had lowered his ERA to 1.98 before allowing seven runs across 10 innings in his last two appearances. Still, the Yankees ace has been particularly tough against the Rays this season, allowing a combined two runs on eight hits in two starts (15-1/3 innings of work) with 16 punch outs. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (1-2, BB), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-5, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-7)

On Blake Snell the Rays placed Blake Snell on the 10-day DL with left shoulder fatigue, retroactive to Friday, July 20. An MRI on his shoulder showed no structural damage, and he is expected to miss only one start. Snell told the local sports media his shoulder has felt fatigued for a couple weeks, although he is confident he will be back soon.

It’s just been fatigued for a little while, Snell said. Talked to (manager Kevin) Cash. Talked to the training staff, (pitching coach) Kyle (Snyder), everybody. We did what we thought was best for me moving forward.

I got an MRI, that was good. So I’m happy about that. Just, it’s been going on for a little bit. So we felt like taking one start off and resting and having this long break would be the best thing for me moving forward.

Chih-Wei Hu was recalled from Triple-A Durham on Monday as the corresponding move when Snell was placed on the DL. There’s a chance Hu will take Snell’s place in the rotation for Tuesday’s start, although that will be determined in the coming hours. Across two long-relief appearances with Tampa Bay this season, Hu has performed to a 5.87 ERA and 0.78 WHIP over 7-2/3 innings. Most recently Hu allowed five earned runs on eight hits during a four-inning start with Durham.

Masahiro Tanaka allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while fanning five over 6-1/3 innings on Sunday. He did not factor into the decision. The right-hander gave up a two-run lead in the fourth inning after surrendering a home run to Edwin Encarnacion. In spite three straight solid performances (six runs allowed over 15-2/3 innings), Tanaka doesn’t have a win to show for his efforts. The splitter throwing Tanaka has not faced the Rays this season. He has a 7-2 record against Tampa Bay in 11 career starts, but with a 4.10 ERA, and is 3-2 with a 5.96 ERA in five starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3), Matt Duffy (1-3), Carlos Gomez (3-10, 2B, RBI, BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (3-5, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (7-15, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-1, 2B), Jesus Sucre (1-2, 2B, RBI)

Nathan Eovaldi rebounded from his worst start of the season, allowing one run on six hits while fanning eight over six innings on Friday. The right-hander put together an impressive showing with his only earned run coming off a third inning solo homer by Derek Dietrich. Eovaldi managed to lower his ERA from 4.59 to 4.26 after his most recent performance, and remains the stuff of trade fodder leading up to the trade deadline.

Luis Cessa will be promoted from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to replace Domingo German as the Yankees’ fifth starter. German took the hill in the Yankees’ first game out of the All-Star break and failed to escape the fourth inning, allowing four runs on five hits and two walks. Over 16 career starts in the big leagues, Cessa has performed to a 4.37 ERA in 82-1/3 innings, with 61 strikeouts. The Rays last saw him on June 22nd, when he tossed two shutout innings in relief of CC Sabathia. He gave up no hits, walked a pair, and struck out two. Over his career he is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 24 innings of work against the Rays. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-2, RBI), Carlos Gomez (1-3, HR, 2 RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (2-8, BB)

Noteworthiness

— The Rays are hopeful to have Kevin Kiermaier back in the lineup on Monday. Kiermaier had a cortisone shot in his bruised right foot on Saturday. Adeiny Hechavarria (left oblique soreness) also could be available after missing yesterday’s game, writes Neil Solondz (Rays Radio).

— Hopes for a series win hang on how well Mallex Smith, CJ Cron, Joey Wendle, and Carlos Gomez perform at the plate, especially in the Wilson Ramos’ absence. You can see their beefy slash lines in the month of July below:

Smith .432 BA/.476 OBP/.757 SLG/1.233 OPS/.505 wOBA/233 wRC+
Cron .373 BA/.431 OBP/.686 SLG/1.117 OPS/.460 wOBA/202 wRC+
Wendle .370 BA/.433 OBP/.648 SLG/1.081 OPS/.453 wOBA/197 wRC+
Gomez .349 BA/.472 OBP/.535 SLG/1.007 OPS/.439 wOBA/187 wRC+

— Wilson Ramos (hamstring) says he is feeling “a lot better,” and thinks he could return in about 10 days — in early August, but after trade deadline. He played catch on the field Monday, his first baseball activity since he suffered the injury on July 14.

The New What Next: Rays vs Marlins part two — an interleague series preview

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Coming off a 1.2 IP/1 ER/3 K performance in the All-Star Game, Blake Snell could be the “TBA” starter on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to kick off the ceremonial second half of the season against the Miami Marlins at home, in the final arm of the 2018 Citrus Series, starting Friday. The Rays dropped two of three against Miami at the start of July.

Tampa Bay is coming off a 1-3 road trek in Minneapolis, although they outscored the Twins 35-33 thanks in part to a 19-6 shellacking in the third game of the series. Meanwhile, the Marlins took two of three from the Phillies ahead of the All-Star Break.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The series against the Twins was an odd one. On one hand, the Rays pushed across 35 runs — including 12 with two outs — and went 24-58 with runners in scoring position (.414 batting average). Yet the pitching staff royally crapped the bed, relinquishing 33 runs — including 16 when they should have slammed the door shut on Minnesota — and allowing a .404 opponent batting average wRISP (19-47). Either way, the Rays’ offense has been clicking of late, averaging five runs per game over a 22-game stretch.

Credit where it’s due, the Marlins have won four of their last five series, including the above mentioned three-game set against Tampa Bay in Miami. Similarly though, the Rays have won five of their last six meetings, including a pair of five-game win streaks.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

It fails to be seen what impact the loss of Wilson Ramos might have on the team, and who will take his place while he is on the shelf. Can Carlos Gomez lead the team in Ramos’ absence? After all, Gomez has sizzled throughout the month of July, slashing .343 BA/.439 OBP/.543 SLG/.982 OPS with an ISO of .200, and lowering his strikeout rate some 3-1/2% — from 23% to 19.5%. Will Kevin Kiermaier ever get toasty in the leadoff spot which he, frankly, shouldn’t be hitting out of?

Whatever the case, Tampa Bay looks to exact some revenge on Miami, and further increase its win/loss separation since it starts the “second half” as fringe contenders in the American League Wildcard race — 8.5 games behind the slumping Mariners, who currently hold the final Wildcard spot. A hot streak could give the Rays some solid footing as they seek their first playoff berth since 2013, while a stretch of sloppy play out the gate could change their presumed holding position at the trade deadline, to that of sellers.

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Nathan Eovaldi (3-4, 4.59 ERA), a TBA hurler thought to be Blake Snell, and Chris Archer (3-4, 4.29 ERA). Don Mattingly will respond with Dan Straily (3-4, 4.29 ERA), Pablo Lopez (1-1, 6.35 ERA), and Trevor Richards (3-5, 4.74 ERA).

(Stats credit: FanGraphs)

Nathan Eovaldi allowed eight runs on nine hits in a loss to Minnesota last Friday. Eovaldi fanned just one and walked two over 2-2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has had an uneven campaign since coming off the DL at the end of May, putting together three scoreless starts in nine outings, but coughing up four runs or more in four others. Friday’s performance was his worst yet, which really doesn’t bode well for he or the team, especially since the Rays have noted they are open to dealing the soon to be free-agent at, or before, the trade deadline.

Dan Straily didn’t factor into the decision in the 5-4 extra-inning win over the Brewers on Wednesday. Straily allowed two runs (one earned) on four hits and two walks over six innings while striking out seven. The right-hander left the game after 101 pitches (67 strikes, 66% strike rate) and in line for the win, but Drew Steckenrider blew the lead in the eighth inning. Straily has now turned in four quality starts in a row, allowing him to lower his ERA to 4.29. This season Straily has relied primarily on his 91 mph four-seam fastball boasting some added backspin and an 84 mph slider, while also mixing in a whiffy 85 mph circle changeup that has some natural sink to it. He is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in his career against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-2, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-4), Mallex Smith (1-2, RBI, BB)

The Rays haven’t listed a starter for the middle game of the series, and I’ll update this piece when a hurler becomes clear.

Pablo Lopez gave up five runs on six hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings against the Brewers on Tuesday. He took the loss. The Brewers made their hits count in this one, as they were able to pummel Lopez early for the first big league loss of his short career. He settled down later on, not allowing a hit or a walk over his final four frames of work. This season Lopez has relied primarily on his 93 mph worm-killer sinker and a 93 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in a 78 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and a whiffy 86 mph changeup. All of his offerings boast natural sinking action.

Chris Archer lasted just 4-1/3 innings on Saturday, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits and a walk while striking out seven. The erratic right-hander failed to finish five innings for the second straight start, laboring with just 59 strikes on 93 pitches (63% strike rate). On the bright side, he induced 16 swinging strikes (27% SwStr), allowing him to supplement his line via the strikeout column. It was only his second start since returning from the DL, so maybe he still has some rust to shake off. For Archer, the hope is for a turnaround in the second half, pushing him more toward his 3.79 FIP.

Trevor Richards threw 3-/23 innings in a no-decision against Washington on Sunday, allowing two earned runs on four hits, while striking out five but walking seven (a season-high). Richards couldn’t put himself in line for a win thanks to his command issues, resulting in him tossing 87 pitches over the course of his outing. Overall, Richards’ 5.24 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP through 56-2/3 innings. Richards allowed four runs on nine hits (including a homer) against the Rays on July 3. Key Matchups: Adeiny Hechavarria (2-2, 2B, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Daniel Robertson (1-2, 2B), Mallex Smith (2-2, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-3)

The New What Next: Rays vs Twins part two — a series preview

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How do you spell sweep? D-E-T-R-O-I-T T-I-G-E-R-S. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

After rattling off five consecutive wins, including a three-game seep of the Tigers, the Tampa Bay Rays are set to open a four game series against the Minnesota Twins, in Minneapolis. The Twins won the rubber game of their three game series with the Royals on Wednesday. The Rays, who enter the series four-games over .500 for the first time this season, swept the three-game series between the teams at home earlier this season (April 20-22).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay looks to build on its 48-44 record heading into the All Star Break. They still trail the Red Sox by 16 games in the AL East entering Thursday night, however, the Rays made up a game in a half in the Wildcard rankings, sitting 9.5 games out of the final spot with 70 left to play.

Minnesota bounced back from a loss in the middle game of the set with Kansas City, improving to 41-49 on the season with their sixth win in seven games. Although the Twins trail Cleveland by 8.5 in the AL Central, and the Rays by six games in the AL Wildcard rankings.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Minnesota has put 75 runs on the board over the last 14 days, as compared to Tampa Bay which has scored 23 fewer. Yet the Rays pitching staff has performed to a combined 2.47 ERA/3.19 FIP (1.66 ERA/2.21 FIP by starters, 3.00 ERA/3.84 FIP by relievers) over the same stretch. Compare that to the Twins, which have performed to a combined 4.95 ERA/4.69 FIP (4.92 ERA/5.33 FIP by starters, 5.00 ERA/3.83 FIP by relievers). Good pitching beats good hitting, advantage Tampa Bay.

If the Rays can win the series, they’ll enter the All-Star Break with a 51-45 record in the very least, six games over .500.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will start Blake Snell (12-4, 2.09 ERA), Nathan Eovaldi (3-3, 3.35 ERA) and Chris Archer (3-4, 4.41 ERA), then rely on the bullpen (23-22, 3.46 ERA) in the series finale. Paul Molitor will counter with Kyle Gibson (3-6, 3.59 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (4-6, 4.28 ERA), Jose Berrios (9-7, 3.41 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the game on Sunday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Blake Snell allowed six hits and three walks while striking out nine across 7-1/3 scoreless innings against the Mets on Sunday. Snell threw 112 pitches (70 strikes, 63% strike rate), generated an impressive 16 swinging strikes (23% SwStr rate) and stayed out of trouble by coaxing 10 groundouts including two double plays. While the Mets typically struggle against left-handers, Snell has been dominant in his last three starts, fanning 29 batters across 21-2/3 innings. Those three turns on the mound have added to his impressive 2018 campaign, as Snell ranks among the AL leaders in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. (Cough, yet he was still snubbed for the All Star Game)

Kyle Gibson fired seven strong innings to earn the win over Baltimore on Saturday, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks while striking out nine. Gibson has been solid for most of the season and he continued that on Saturday, with most of the damage coming on a first-inning home run hit by Chris Davis. Even so, Gibson is 1-1 with a 5.21 ERA over his last three starts (19 innings), with seven walks but 19 strikeouts. The right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.81 ERA in eight career starts against Tampa Bay, including a 6-1/3 inning four run, five hit loss on April 21. Key Matchups: Ji-Man Choi (1-3, HR, RBI), CJ Cron (4-11, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Carlos Gomez (4-15, 2B, RBI), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-1, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (5-8, 3 2B, BB), Wilson Ramos (1-3, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (2-3, 3B)

Nathan Eovaldi blanked the Mets across seven innings, allowing just one hit while striking out nine. The right-hander has had his best stuff over his last three starts, allowing just two runs across 19 innings while striking out 23. Even considering the hefty number of punch outs he collected, Eovaldi was extremely efficient Sunday, needing just 79 pitches (59 strikes, 75% strike rate) to breeze through seven innings, but manager Cash decided to pull the starter due to a seven-run lead.

Jake Odorizzi allowed five hits and a walk while striking out five over six innings against the Orioles on Sunday. He now has thrown two scoreless outings in his last three starts. And while both of those starts have come against weak lineups — the White Sox and Orioles — the former Ray is making up for a rough stretch from late May and June, during which he allowed 22 earned runs across 20-1/3 innings. He has gone at least five innings without surrendering more than two earned runs in 10 of his 19 starts this season. Odo has never faced his former team, although a handful of batters have faced him over the last few years. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (2-4, HR, RBI), Matt Duffy (1-2, 2B), Carlos Gomez (2-7, BB)

Chris Archer did not fare well in his return outing after spending on the DL with an abdominal strain, allowing three runs on six hits and two walks over 3-1/3 innings Monday night. He struck out three. Archer threw 15 of 18 first pitch strikes and induced 11 whiffs, although he had a hard time putting batters away efficiently. He struggled in the third inning, when he allowed three runs on three hits and a walk, running up his pitch count before his removal with one out in the fourth. Archer appeared to be turning a corner leading up to his DL stint, firing off five quality starts over a stretch of seven appearances that was bookended by an injury marred, five inning outing against Seattle on the fifth of June. Over his last four previous starts against the Angels, Red Sox, Athletics and the Mariners, Archer allowed a total of three runs, while sporting a 2.18 K/BB.

Jose Berrios held the Royals to just one run on six hits over seven innings on Monday night. He struck out eight. Berrios has now thrown quality starts in six of his last seven outings. The right-hander leaned heavily on his curveball Monday, throwing it 41 times, inducing five swinging strikes and four outs in play with it. Overall, Kansas City’s batters whiffed 16 times (22% SwStr rate) on 111 (74 strikes, 67% strike rate) pitches as Berrios showed why he’s the ace in Minnesota. Aside from his 82 mph curveball, this season Berrios has relied on his 94 mph four-seam fastball and an 84 mph changeup. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-3), Kevin Kiermaier (2-6, 2B)

I will update this piece when the pitching probables for the series finale are announced.

The New What Next: Rays vs Mets — an interleague series preview

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Kevin Kiermaier hasn’t fared well since his return from the DL, slashing .163 BA/.250 OBP/.233 SLG/.483 OPS with 13 punch outs (28.9% K%). (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The scuffling New York Mets play host to the Tampa Bay Rays, as the pair open a three-game interleague series Friday night at Citi Field. The series marks the team’s first trek to Queens since the Rays called Citi Field home for three-games last season, in the wake of Hurricane Irma.

The Rays started their six-game road trip on a rather inauspicious note, dropping two of three games to the Miami Marlins. The Mets split a two-game set with Toronto.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay, again, has the opportunity to jump above the .500 mark with a series win. Furthermore, if playing competitive baseball is their raison d’être, then the Rays — who have gone 7-3 over over a 10-game stretch — need to use this series as a springboard to another one of their patented winning streaks leading up to the All-Star Break. New York has had the had the opposite success over its last 10 games, flailing to a 3-7 record.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Pitching Probables

Kevin Cash will lean on Ryne Stanek (1-2, 1.98 ERA) to open the first game of the series, Blake Snell (11-4, 2.24 ERA) and Nathan Eovaldi (2-3, 3.92 ERA). Mickey Callaway will counter with Steven Matz (4-5, 3.46 ERA), Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.84 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale on Sunday.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek saw his 12-appearance scoreless streak come to an end on Monday, in a relief loss to Miami. Still, the right-hander has a 0.85 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 17-2/3 innings. Andrew Kittredge looks like the top candidate to cover the bulk of the innings behind Stanek, due to the heavy workloads that many of the Rays’ other long-relief options have assumed lately.

Steven Matz threw 5-1/3 innings on Sunday, allowing one unearned run on three hits and two walks while fanning six. The only run that scored was off an error by Matz. The southpaw lowered his season ERA to 3.46 alongside a respectable 3.62 K/BB. Even so, he has allowed six runs over his last 12 innings of work. This season Matz has relied primarily on his 94 mph sinker, while also mixing in a firm 84 mph changeup with slight armside fade and some natural sink, a 79 mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and an 89 mph worm-killer slider. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (2-6, 2 RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-6, RBI)

Blake Snell allowed one run on four hits and a walk while striking out 10 over 7-1/3 innings on Sunday. Snell’s lone earned run came on a seventh inning solo shot off the bat of Evan Gattis giving Houston a one-run lead, but Tampa Bay struck back for two in the bottom half of the frame, setting Snell up for the win. In 18 starts this season, Snell sits with an outstanding 2.24 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with a 3/1 K/BB over 108-2/3 innings. His last start, in front of AJ Hinch, may have solidified Snell’s first All-Star nomination.

Jacob DeGrom allowed three runs on six hits and a walk over six innings on Sunday. He struck out eight. The right-hander cruised through five scoreless innings before allowing a two-run homer. A misplayed grounder gave deGrom his third, and final, earned run on the night. Despite delivering nine consecutive quality starts, deGrom somehow has a 2-4 record over that stretch. He is 0-0 with a 2.84 ERA in one career start against Tampa Bay. This season deGrom has relied primarily on his 96 mph four-seam fastball and a 91 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph changeup, a 96 mph sinker and an 83 mph curveball. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-2, BB), Carlos Gomez (4-10, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2)

Nathan Eovaldi threw six innings of two-run ball on Monday against the Marlins. Eovaldi allowed eight hits and walked one, while punching out five along the way. Eovaldi endured his share of baserunners in this outing, although he allowed just two extra-base hits and induced 11 groundball outs to limit the damage. The righty allowed a run on three hits in the second inning and another on a solo home run in the fifth. Things are looking up for Eovaldo, who’s thrown two consecutive quality starts, posting a 4.67 K/BB while allowing just two earned runs across 12 total innings of work.

Noteworthiness

— Following the series finale with the Marlins, the Rays optioned RHP Ryan Weber back to Triple-A Durham. A countermove will be announced before the series opener with the Mets.

The New What Next: Rays vs Astros part two — a series preview

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The Rays look to continue their spate of winning against the Astros, starting Thursday. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros are set to start a four-game series on Thursday night, when they collide at Tropicana Field. The Rays have won five in a row — all at the expense of the Yankees and Nationals — and seven of their last nine. Houston is 4-1 in its last five contests after recently taking two of three from the Jays.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

Tampa Bay started an incredibly tough stretch of play back on May 8, playing 51 games in 54 days. Over that span the Rays faced eight teams with a +.500 record, and went 24-27 overall, with four winning streaks of three or more games, and four losing streaks of three or more games. That seesaw certainly isn’t eye popping to say the least. However, they made hay against the Angels and Athletics, and most recently the Yankees and Nationals.

Pitching has been key to the Rays of late. Their five-game winning streak includes three shutouts and a 22-inning scoreless streak, while they have pitched to a combined 2.87 ERA since May 19 (best in the majors) when they launched their “game opener” strategy, with a .207 opponents batting average and a 1.11 WHIP (second best in the majors).

The pitching’s been outstanding, keeping us in every single ball game, manager Kevin Cash said. It’s kind of how we’re built. We’ve got to take advantage of it when we get it. And we’re getting it here of late.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Even thought they don’t have much to show for their success at the plate over the last 14-days, the Rays have performed well offensively since they last faced the Astros — averaging four runs per game, and slashing a combined .269 BA/.354 OBP/.450 SLG/.804 OPS/.349 wOBA/.325 BABIP line over the last week, with 25 runs (63% of all the runs they’ve scored over the last two weeks), a .181 ISO, and a 5.7 Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA).

True, Tampa Bay closed out its most recent road trip by losing two of three in Houston, yet the team is perfect on its current nine-game home-stand. And in all fairness, the Rays could have won two of three against the Astros, as the loss in the first game of that particular series came by a run.

To be sure, it would be a fool’s errand to seek a four-game sweep of the Astros. The question then should be how will Tampa Bay bounce back from loss? Will the Rays drop three or more consecutive games, as they have throughout the season, or will they recover from a loss to win the very next game? A series split, in the least, will give them a far better chance to again climb over the .500 mark against their next four, sub .500, competitors: the Marlins, Mets, Tigers, and Twins.

Pitching Probables

Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Ryne Stanek (1-1, 1.99 ERA) — who will likely be followed by Ryan Yarbrough (7-3, 3.96 ERA), Wilmer Font (1-1, 1.64 ERA), Matt Andriese (1-3, 4.02 ERA), and Blake Snell (10-4, 2.31 ERA). AJ Hinch will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. (8-3, 3.82 ERA), Gerrit Cole (9-1, 2.56 ERA), Justin Verlander (9-3, 1.82 ERA), and Charlie Morton (10-1, 2.54 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Ryne Stanek is one of the prime reasons for the team’s pitching success, having not allowed a run in 10 consecutive appearances, including five lead-off outings. Stanek has allowed just four hits during this stretch, while striking out 14 and walking five over 13 innings. Ryan Yarbrough threw 3-1/3 shutout innings against the Yankees last Friday, walking three but fanning four.

Lance McCullers Jr. picked up his fifth consecutive quality start, but settled for his second straight no-decision after allowing three runs on four hits over six innings of work in his last turn. McCullers struck out nine. The Tampa product owns a 5-2 record in nine starts away from Minute Maid Park, yet with a 4.83 road ERA. This season he has relied primarily on a hard 87 mph 12-6 curveball and a 95 mph sinker with some armside run, while also mixing in a whiffy 88 mph changeup with obvious armside fade. The right-hander is 0-2 with an alarming 6.00 ERA in losing both of his careers starts at Tropicana Field.

Wilmer Font shut down one of baseball’s most potent offenses on Saturday, stymying a silent Yankees team.

Font threw 5-2/3 solid innings — his longest outing in the Majors — and allowed just three hits, walking just one and striking out four. It was the 28-year-old’s first big league victory (in his 26th appearance and fourth start). He has progressively increased the length of his appearances, from 2-1/3 innings to 3-1/3 to 4-2/3 and now 5-2/3.

It’s exciting, and I’m very happy, said Font, who was acquired by the Rays on May 25 and is playing with his third organization (Dodgers, Athletics) this season. I was trying to attack from the start. The first pitch was very important. After that, work the corners. I felt very, very good today.

Since joining the Rays, he is 1-1 with a 1.63 ERA in eight appearances (four starts). While there is still a lot of work for him to do, as Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) writes, Font may turn out to be a steal for the Rays off the discard pile given his physical tools, maturity and hunger at age 28 to finally succeed.

Gerrit Cole fanned eight over five one-run innings on Sunday against Kansas City. He allowed two hits and three walks along the way. Cole limited baserunners, with the only run against him coming on a Lucas Duda solo shot in the fourth. The Royals fouled off 27 pitches to help push Cole’s pitch count, resulting in his removal after collecting just 15 outs. Despite the short outing, Cole bounced back from allowing four earned runs in each of his last two starts, including four runs on three hits and five walks against Tampa Bay on June 18. Cole is now 0-0 with a 5.14 ERA against the Rays. Key Matchups: CJ Cron (1-4, 2B, RBI), Carlos Gomez (6-14, 3B, 2 BB), Wilson Ramos (3-12, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Joey Wendle (1-3, 2 RBI)

Matt Andriese gave up three runs on three hits and two walks while striking out one in the Rays’ bullpen day on Sunday. His ERA jumped from 3.68 to 4.02 after the outing. Andriese followed 16 consecutive appearances in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer, with two straight starts in which he gave up three runs in each — including a 2-2/3 inning, three run start against the Astros on June 18.

Justin Verlander allowed four runs on seven hits and two walks with six punch outs over 6-2/3 innings of a loss against the Blue Jays on Monday. Home runs have been an issue for Verlander lately, as he has allowed six homers in his past four starts after giving up just five over his first 13 outings. The result was the first time all season that Verlander allowed more than three runs, pushing his ERA all the way up to 1.82. The right-hander gave up a second inning solo shot to CJ Cron in a 1-2 loss to the Rays on June 19, but otherwise struck out 10. Verlander is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in eight career starts at Tropicana Field. Key Matchups: Matt Duffy (1-3), Wilson Ramos (1-3), Joey Wendle (2-3, 2B)

Blake Snell slammed the door on the Nationals over the balance of his seven inning, one hit start after he allowed a pair of first inning free passes.

I got pissed; I was annoyed, said Snell on the subject of walking the first two batters.

The left-hander carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning until Anthony Rendon led off the frame with a double off the left field wall. Snell walked two more batters in the frame, although he was able to escape with the shutout intact. Snell fanned 10 and lowered his home ERA from 0.96 to 0.70, extending his club record by allowing just one earned run or fewer in a 10th straight home start.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) also dished some noteworthiness relating to Snell’s phenomenal outing:

Retired 18 straight, tying the third-longest streak of consecutive batters retired in team history, behind Matt Garza (22) on July 26, 2010, vs.
Detroit and Chris Archer (19) on July 29, 2015 vs. Detroit.

Made the 11th scoreless start of his career and matched the longest scoreless start of his career.

Reached double-digit strikeouts for the fourth time in his career, third this season. No other Rays pitcher has done so.

Became the seventh Ray to reach double-digit wins
before the All-Star break, first since Matt Moore (13) in 2013.

Allowed two runs or fewer for an AL-most 14th time this season, matching Washington’s Max Scherzer for most in the majors. And allowed one run or fewer for the 10 time, matching most in the majors.

Charlie Morton struck out 13 over seven scoreless frames on Tuesday against the Blue Jays. Morton allowed four hits and two walks en route to a win. The right-hander relinquished zero extra-base hits and threw 67 of 98 pitches for strikes (68% strike rate) in his dominant outing — the fifth time this season that Morton has recorded double-digit strikeouts. Morton now sports a 3.13 K/BB over 95-2/3 innings and a .195 batting average against, making him one of only seven pitchers in the big leagues to hold opponents under a .200 average. In his last start against Tampa Bay, Morton allowed just one run on two hits and four walks, although he is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts at the Trop. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (1-1, 2B, 2 BB), Matt Duffy (1-3), Carlos Gomez (6-18, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (5-14, RBI, 3 BB)