X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

The New What Next: Rays look for 90th win Sunday afternoon

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Austin Meadows hit his first homer as a Ray on Saturday, a missile to right field. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to play their final game of the season this afternoon with the hope of finishing the season with 90 victories. Tampa Bay has had five previous 90 win seasons, although this would be the first since 2013. A nice, round number like 90 would give the Rays the opportunity to join an elite club of just six teams that have won 90 games six times over an 11 season stretch.

The Rays also enter play with 50 home wins — it’s just the fourth time the team has reached that milestone. As Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) made mention of, Tampa Bay has gone 18-9 in the month of September, and 40-25 since the All-Star Break.

Russell Martin is slated to handle the managing duties for the Blue Jays, in what technically is the final game for Toronto’s skipper, John Gibbons. Martin will make the lineup and handle in-game moves in what is a risky, albeit fun, send off for the longtime manager of the Blue Jays.

For his part, Rays manager Kevin Cash said he won’t have a veteran player “manage” Sunday’s finale:

I don’t plan on it; I don’t know that I could deal with Sergio (Romo) standing next to me for nine innings.

Speaking of taking a gamble, the Rays did just that with Blake Snell’s Cy Young chances by starting him yesterday, especially had the game gone bad. And in all fairness, the first inning of Saturday’s ballgame appeared to be a disastrous one, as Snell labored through 29 pitches (mostly breaking balls) resulting in three walks and a run on a sac-fly. Yet Snell locked it in once he got through the initial frame, tossing five innings on 82 pitches (49 strikes, 60% strike rate) and striking out 10. When all was said and done, Zilla hit the 180-innings mark he wanted.

Even though he didn’t notch his 22nd win, as he left the game with the score tied, he still finished the season with the majors’ most wins and 221 punch outs.

I feel like I’ve put up a good case, Snell said. They’re going to pick who they pick. I don’t have a say. But the work that I did put together I feel like it’s a good case to have.

Austin Meadows came up big in the seventh inning, turning on a 0-1, 82 mph changeup and sending it to deep right field for his first homer as a Ray.

OF Austin Meadows showed the Rays a glimpse of what they hope to see more, hitting a clutch homer to put them ahead in the seventh. Manager Kevin Cash said that Triple-A skipper Jared Sandberg told him Meadows hung in well against lefties, and he did just that, writes Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times).

CJ Cron also hit his 30th home run of the season, waiting back on three consecutive high and outside fastballs only to crush a 3-0 heater that caught too much plate. Cron spoke about the milestone after the game:

He’ll get a chance to hit number 31 this afternoon.

The New What Next

Ryne Stanek (2-3, 3.08 ERA) will open the Rays in a bullpen day, pitching opposite of Sam Gaviglio (3-9, 5.19 ERA).

Stanek is opening for the 29th time in 59 appearances. He has allowed runs in his last two opening roles, giving up homers in each.

Per Solondz, the Rays allowed two homers yesterday, and have given up 21 in the last 10 contests. That said, Tampa Bay has given up 164 homers this year, a total that is the second fewest in the American League, and sixth fewest in the majors.

Gaviglio will face the Rays for the fourth time this season. Gaviglio has allowed just two runs in each of the last two starts against Tampa Bay. However, he has not worked more than five innings in any of his September outings. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3, 2 RBI, BB), Jake Bauers (2-3, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Ji-Man Choi (1-4, 2B), CJ Cron (1-4), Matt Duffy (3-9), Tommy Pham (1-2, 3B, RBI), Mallex Smith (3-8, 2B, RBI), Joey Wendle (4-6, 2 2B, 3 RBI)

Rays 9/30/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Pham LF
Wendle 3B
Cron DH
Lowe 2B
Adames SS
Meadows RF
Bauers 1B
Ciuffo C
Stanek RHP

You can read about the series on our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the final series preview of the regular season

Noteworthiness

— Don’t expect to see Matty Duffy or Ji-Man Choi this afternoon in the season finale.

— Sunday also likely marks the final games (for the Rays that is) for a pair of veteran free-agents to be: Sergio Romo and Carlos Gomez.

— Thank you for another fun season, dear readers!

We’ll take a couple of days off then return with our preview of the AL Wildcard game between the Athletics and Yankees on Wednesday. We’ll also start our autopsy of the Rays season sometime thereafter. Keep checking back.

— Just sayin’:

LBWMF: Rays look to bounce back on Saturday following a 7-6 loss to the Jays

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Tyler Glasnow (on the mound) allowed three runs across 5-1/3 innings Friday night. (Photo Credit: X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays got off to a good start on Friday yet couldn’t finish off the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays squandered three leads in the 7-6 loss, leaving them with no wiggle room for mulligans in the quest for 90 wins with just two games left to play.

After a terrific month-long stretch of play, Tampa Bay has dropped four of five.

The Rays took a three-run lead in the first inning against southpaw Thomas Pannone, who previously held them to just two runs. Mallex Smith led off the game with a triple to left-centerfield, while Tommy Pham walked — extending his on-base streak to 30 games.

Joey Wendle drove in the Rays first run when he doubled down the left field line, plating Smith from third and moving Pham up 180 feet.

CJ Cron was next, sending a sacrifice fly to left and pushing the lead to 2-0. Finally, Willy Adames capped the inning with an RBI single to right-center.

Yet Toronto immediately answered against Tyler Glasnow when Teoscar Hernandez homered to right-center on the first pitch of the second inning, drawing the Blue Jays within two.

Still, the Rays stretched the lead back to three runs in the fifth inning after Smith reached on an infield hit. Even though it appeared that he was picked off first, the throw to second went off of Richard Urena’s glove which allowed Smith to scamper into third on what was scored a stolen base and an error.

Pham followed with a sac fly to right for a 4-1 advantage. However, the Blue Jays tied the game in the sixth.

Rowdy Tellez started the rally with a homer to right, then with one out Reese McGwire singled and Dwight Smith Jr. walked, chasing Glasnow. Enter Adam Kolerek.

Even though McGwire was thrown out trying to advance to third for the second out, Urena singled to left — putting two on for second baseman Jon Berti, who punched a ground ball into center field for a hit. Both Smith and Urena scored as the throw came in to second.

Tampa Bay was able to take the lead back in the bottom of the inning. Willy Adames led off with a walk, moved up to third on a one-out single to right by Austin Meadows, and came home on a safety squeeze bunt single by catcher Adam Moore off reliever Jake Petricka.

Be that as it may, the Rays scored just the one run in the frame, which allowed Toronto to take the lead back for good in the top of the seventh.

Chaz Roe started the inning by allowing a leadoff hustle double to left-center to Kevin Pillar. Yangervis Solarte grounded to third, as Roe was pulled in favor of Jose Alvarado. Tellez grounded to second but Brandon Lowe committed his first big league error, putting runners on the corners with one out. Hernandez walked to load the bases before pinch-hitter Randall Grichuk cleared the bases with a three-run triple to right.

Tampa Bay was able to get within a run on a no-doubter to center by Adam Moore, his first MLB homer in six seasons.

Smith, who was a homer* shy of the cycle, then doubled to left-center off Jose Fernandez, leading John Gibbons to call upon Ryan Tepera, the sixth pitcher of the night for Toronto. Tepera struck out Pham and Wendle and got CJ Cron to fly to right, ending the threat.

Ken Giles closed out the game with a scoreless ninth.

*Smith crushed a ball to the deepest part of the park in the sixth, just shy of the wall in center.

The New What Next

The second game of the series is on Saturday as Blake Snell (21-5, 1.90 ERA) makes his final start of 2018 opposite of fellow southpaw Ryan Borucki (4-5, 3.76 ERA).

Snell blanked Toronto across 6-2/3 innings on Sunday, allowing three hits and two walks. He struck out 11. The southpaw was outstanding once again, winning his ninth consecutive start. Snell relinquished just three singles and during his nine-start winning streak has given up only six earned runs in 46 innings. He has a sterling 1.90 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP this season.

For Snell, who became the Rays’ third starting pitcher to win the team MVP award on Friday (joining Tanyon Sturtze in 2001 and James Shields in 2011), consider this his final tuneup ahead of a potential Cy Young Award win.

Borucki was dealt a loss on Sunday even though he allowed just two runs on three hits and four walks while striking out seven over seven innings. Borucki was solid once again, limiting the opposition to two runs or fewer for his fourth straight start. Borucki was nicked for RBI doubles in the fourth and sixth innings, saddling him with the loss. He is 0-2 but with a 2.77 ERA against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Tommy Pham (1-4, 2 BB), Joey Wendle (1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 BB)

Rays 9/29/18 Starting Lineup

Smith CF
Pham LF
Adames SS
Cron 1B
Lowe 2B
Gomez RF
Meadows DH
Sucre C
Velazquez 3B
Snell LHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the final series preview of the regular season

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the final series preview of the regular season

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Tommy Pham and the Tampa Bay Rays look to end the 2018 campaign on a high note this weekend. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays are ready to open their season-ending series on Friday against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field. Both teams are coming off series losses to the Yankees and Astros (respectively).

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Rays are looking to close the book on a stellar second half after starting the season with a disappointing 4-13 overall record. Tampa Bay has a legitimate shot of winning 90 games for the first time since 2013, making the small market heroes a popular pick to sneak into the postseason in 2019. More than that though, the players are looking to set some individual achievements this weekend.

Blake Snell will take the hill on Saturday with one last start to solidify his AL Cy Young Award bid. 1B/DH C.J. Cron, who had hit 16 homers in each of his three seasons with Los Angeles, enters the series with 29 and a shot to get over 30. 3B Matt Duffy has a chance to become the first qualifying Ray (3.1 plate appearance per team game, 502 for a full season) to hit .300 in seven years, since Casey Kotchman in 2011. Then there is Joey Wendle, who is vying for an AL Rookie of the Year nomination.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Recently-acquired OF Tommy Pham has been on fire since coming over at the trade deadline. Pham is batting a healthy .346 with seven home runs, seven doubles, and five triples as a member of the Rays, sporting a 2.3 fWAR and a 1.087 OPS in 35 games with his new team.

But Pham insisted you have not seen the best of him yet in an interview with the Tampa Bay Times, saying:

Offensively, I’m still trying to figure out some things. And I think when I do figure it out, whether it be this year or the offseason because it will be figured out before next season, I think I could truly be the player I think I’m capable of being. I just haven’t figured out how to fix myself just yet.

I have a lot of ability. The key to this game is just putting it all together. The guys that are really good in this game, they know how to put it together. And when you showcase it consistently, you get the great you. I haven’t showcased my ability consistently like I did last year. … The key is being consistent all year.

Pitching Probables

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.23 ERA), Blake Snell (21-5, 1.90 ERA), and an as of now unnamed array of hurlers in the season finale. John Gibbons, who could be managing in his last series with Toronto, will counter with Thomas Pannone (4-1, 3.86 ERA), Ryan Borucki (4-5, 3.76 ERA), and Marco Estrada (7-14, 5.64 ERA).

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Tyler Glasnow took the loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday despite throwing a quality start. The right-hander allowed six hits (including a home run) and two walks while striking out six across six innings. Glasnow gave up all three runs in the fourth inning on a Rowdy Tellez two-run homer and Reese McGuire’s run-scoring double. It was his fourth quality start in five outings although he is just 1-5 in his last six turns on the mound.

Thomas Pannone earned the win Saturday against Tampa Bay, pitching 6-2/3 innings while allowing two runs on six hits (including two home runs) and three walks. He struck out five. Pannone has won each of his last three outings, all quality starts. He, however, has struck out only 6.2 batters per nine innings and doesn’t boast much velocity (88.4 mph average before Saturday’s outing). The Rays seek to pay him back. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (2-5), CJ Cron (1-2, BB), Brandon Lowe (1-2), Tommy Pham (1-3, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 2B), Jesus Sucre (1-3, HR, RBI), Joey Wendle (1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, BB)

Blake Snell blanked Toronto across 6-2/3 innings on Sunday, allowing three hits and two walks. He struck out 11. The southpaw was outstanding once again, winning his ninth consecutive start. Snell relinquished just three singles and during his nine-start winning streak has given up only six earned runs in 46 innings. He has a sterling 1.90 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP this season.

Ryan Borucki was dealt a loss on Sunday even though he allowed just two runs on three hits and four walks while striking out seven over seven innings. Borucki was solid once again, limiting the opposition to two runs or fewer for his fourth straight start. Borucki was nicked for RBI doubles in the fourth and sixth innings, saddling him with the loss. He is 0-2 but with a 2.77 ERA against the Rays this season. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Tommy Pham (1-4, 2 BB), Joey Wendle (1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 BB)

TBA

Marco Estrada allowed four runs on seven hits and one walk across 4-2/3 innings. He struck out one. Estrada got off to a rocky start, giving up a run in the first inning, two in the second and another in the third. Two of the four runs allowed came via the home-run ball. Estrada owns a 5.64 ERA and 103 strikeouts across 143-2/3 frames in what could be his final outing as a Blue Jay. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-1, 2B, BB), Ji-Man Choi (2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI), CJ Cron (2-7, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-6, 2B, 3 RBI), Carlos Gomez (3-6, BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Kevin Kiermaier was shut down for the rest of the season after he was hit on the foot by an 84 mph slider from Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka on Wednesday.

It didn’t feel good from the start, Kiermaier said. I hate coming out of games and I wanted to try and tough it out.

After being pulled from the game in the third inning, an X-ray revealed a hairline fracture in a small bone on the side of the foot.

It’s just an unfortunate way for me to end the season but that’s kind of my 2018, in a nutshell, Kiermaier said. I feel like everything that could’ve went wrong for me did.

I just want to let everyone know that I wasn’t the player that I know I could have been this, obviously the worst of my career dating back my whole life, ever since I was born. I take my job and what I do very seriously. But it seems like every ball I hit hard this year was an out. Every diving play that could have been made was made on me. And of course an 84 mph slider breaks a bone in my foot.

— Matt Duffy left Wednesday’s game after the first inning with right quad tightness that he said had been bothering him for several days. Duffy said he isn’t ruling out returning this weekend although he is going to be cautious.

Tampa Bay Rays 9/25/18 pregame notes, etc

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Blake Snell is donating his jersey from win No. 21 to the Rays display in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After being officially eliminated from the Wildcard race on Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays look to get back to their winning ways on Tuesday against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field.

We’re obviously proud of what we’ve accomplished this year, third baseman Matt Duffy said. It is unfortunate, you can go back and look at a game here, a game there that we let get away or should have won. The reality is that’s baseball. … With where we stood coming into the season, the expectations that were on us, I think everybody kind of expected us to have as many losses as we have wins now.

We’re not a hidden little secret anymore. I think the Red Sox and Yankees and other teams in the league are going to approach us with a little more caution going forward. That’s going to make our jobs tougher next year.

The Rays fought hard for a postseason berth, going 25-8 since August 19 and 38-22 since the All-Star Break.

Well, Marc, to answer your question, Baseball Prospectus had the Rays pegged for 84 wins (+/- six games), so my guess is them.

With the immediate postseason window settled, Tampa Bay’s focus now shifts to winning at least 90 games for the first time since 2013. The Rays will need to win three of their final six games to get to 90 victories, and two more to reach 50 wins at the Trop.

Tampa Bay is 8-8 against the Bronx Bummers and would need to take two of the final three games to take the season series. That will be a challenge, however, as the Rays will face Luis Severino tonight.

The New What Next

Jake Faria (4-3, 5.17 ERA) will get the start for Tampa Bay, pitching opposite of Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA).

Faria threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Rangers. The right-hander has made just three appearances in September, allowing five runs across five innings. Faria last started on August 1- against New York, allowing one run in 3-1/3 innings in a 6-1 victory. Jalen Beeks is also available to provide length today.

Beeks allowed two runs on two hits (two solo home runs) across three innings on Friday. That outing came on the heels of a two-inning shutout appearance on Wednesday in Arlington. Beeks hasn’t given up a ton of runs, just six in his last seven appearances, however, he also has thrown more than four innings just once (8/24 vs Boston).

Severino picked up his 18th win on the season on Wednesday, allowing one run on six hits and one walk across seven innings. He collected six punch outs. Severino was in control all along, allowing just one extra-base hit en route to his first win, and quality start, of September. Prior to Wednesday’s outing, the right-hander hadn’t completed seven innings since August 8. Severino has now allowed just two runs over his last two starts (totaling 12-2/3 innings). He is 2-1 with a 3.54 ERA in three starts against the Rays this season, but 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA at the Trop after a disastrous five-inning, six-run outing on July 23. Key Matchups: Jake Bauers (3-5, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Matt Duffy (2-8), Carlos Gomez (1-4), Mallex Smith (3-10, 2B) 

Rays 9/25/18 Starting Lineup

Smith RF
Wendle 3B
Pham LF
Choi 1B
Lowe 2B
Cron DH
Kiermaier CF
Adames SS
Moore C
Faria RHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Yankees, one last time — a series preview

Noteworthiness

— Ji-Man Choi is getting the start at first base while Adam Moore will get the start behind the plate.

— Sure looks like the other Bay Area team, who we’ll be rooting for, is pretty excited for their playoff berth:

— Blake Snell is donating his jersey from win No. 21 to the Rays display in the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.

Tampa Bay Rays 9/24/18 pregame notes, etc

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In spite of a quality start by Tyler Glasnow, the Rays bats couldn’t provide any run support on Saturday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

Tyler Glasnow provided a quality start, yet took the loss for the second straight time in Toronto, as the Blue Jays beat the Tampa Bay Rays, 5-2, on Saturday afternoon. They look to bounce back and split the series with AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell on the mound.

The Rays got within a run in the seventh inning when Jesus Sucre delivered his first homer of the season, which followed a third-inning solo homer by Tommy Pham. Yet the bats went cold as they left a lot of chicken on the bone — going 0-5 wRISP.

The Rays remain mathematically alive in the AL Wildcard race, although they will need help from the Twins on Sunday, as they sit 7.5 games behind the Oakland Athletics for the final Wildcard spot with 8 games remaining. However, Tampa Bay’s tragic number is down to one, meaning one more Oakland win or Rays loss officially ends it.

Even if we win out, I don’t see Oakland losing six games anyway, Rays third baseman Matt Duffy said. I’ve been saying it for a while — we understand the situation.

The New What Next

Blake Snell (20-5, 1.97 ERA) will make his final road start of the season, pitching opposite of Ryan Borucki (4-4, 3.86 ERA).

Snell allowed one hit across five scoreless innings in a win over Texas on Tuesday, striking out five and walking two. Snell was stellar once again, earning his eighth consecutive win and his 20th win of his 2018 campaign. He became just the second Rays pitcher to tally 20 wins in a season (David Price won 20 games in 2012) and he’s the only pitcher thus far to reach the mark in the majors this season. Snell also became just the 12th pitcher this year to break the 200-strikeout threshold, doing so in only 169 innings pitched. The southpaw’s 1.97 ERA trails only Jacob deGrom (1.78) in the majors and his .179 batting average against leads all starting pitchers.

Snell told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he’s so serious about not wanting to hear, read or think about what he has done that when his mom started texting him links to stories and video clips after he won his 20th Tuesday, he blocked her on his phone. His own mom!

I don’t want to hear it, he said. I know I’m going to reply to my mom, so the only way I’m not is if I don’t see it. So I gave it a couple hours where I couldn’t see it, she had no clue, and then I unblocked her. Having to do that was funny in a way, and weird ’cause it was my mother, but I just don’t like hearing it.

Borucki threw eight scoreless innings on Monday, allowing three hits and one walk while striking out seven across eight innings. Borucki kept the Orioles off the board, eventually exiting the game after throwing 105 pitches (67 strikes, 64% K/BB). He’s been a reliable starter in 15 starts this season, owning a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP with 57 strikeouts across 84 innings. The right-hander allowed two runs on three hits on two walks in his last start against the Rays. Key Matchups: Carlos Gomez (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI)

Rays 9/23/18 Starting Lineup

Smith RF
Pham LF
Duffy 3B
Cron DH
Wendle SS
Lowe 2B
Kiermaier CF
Bauers 1B
Sucre C
Snell LHP

You can read about the series in our preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Blue Jays — the penultimate series preview

Noteworthiness

— Per Topkin, OF Carlos Gomez said he had not heard anything yet from Major League Baseball officials after his Twitter rant and comments criticizing home-plate umpire Andy Fletcher stemming from a called third strike and ejection on Thursday. MLB tends to look closely at those situations, and a fine or suspension would seem possible. Gomez said he wasn’t worried and would appeal any disciplinary action.