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The New What Next: Athletics vs Yankees — a Wildcard game preview

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The AL Wildcard game takes place Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. (Photo Credit: Oakland Athletics)

The New York Yankees will host the Oakland Athletics in the AL Wildcard game Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. Oakland will send right-hander Liam Hendriks to the mound as the opener, while New York will oppose with right-hander Luis Severino. Each team won three games in the 2018 season series.

(Stats Credit: ESPN)

The Athletics were 34-36 (.486) at the conclusion of play on June 15, and 11 games out in the Wildcard race. Yet from that point on they went 63-29 (.685) and ended up seven games ahead of the third place team in the Wildcard race (the Rays).

The keys to their success? The bullpen — like the Rays, Athletics manager Bob Melvin utilized the opener/long reliever model to great effect — and a high slugging powered offense. Oakland ranked second in the big leagues in doubles (322) and extra-base hits (569), third in home runs (227), fourth in runs (813) and slugging (.439), and fifth in OPS (.764).

True, the Yankees have scored more runs and hit more homers than the Athletics, yet they are a single faceted team in a sense because they depend heavily on the home run. Because of it, they can be pitched to and tend to strike out a lot. Expect Melvin to lean on groundball hurlers that can keep the ball in the park.

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Oakland has averaged 5.02 runs per game this season, ranking fourth in all of baseball, while the pitching staff features a 3.81 team ERA, good for 11th in the Majors.

New York’s powerful lineup averaged 5.25 runs per game this season, ranking second in the big leagues. However, the Yankees have underperformed the Athletics in the second half of the season.

Pitching Probables

(Stats Credit: FanGraphs)

Liam Hendriks served as an opener in eight of his 25 regular-season appearances, logging a 2.08 ERA and 2.33 K/BB across 8-2/3 innings in those outings. Hendricks has worked to a 0.00 ERA/2.06 FIP/0.190 OBA/.250 BABIP/0.79 FIP over the last 14 days, with a 56.3 GB% and a 37.5% FB%. He has not given up a homer over that stretch (6-1/3 innings overall). Hendriks is 2-2 with a 6.32 ERA in career nine appearances (two starts) against the Yankees. Key Matchups: Greg Bird (1-2, 2B), Brett Gardner (1-2), Didi Gregorious (1-2), Andrew McCutchen (2-5, 2B, 3B, 3 RBI), Giancarlo Stanton (1-2)

Oakland will use its bullpen for the entire game. After Hendriks, the Athletics could turn to either Mike Fiers or Trevor Cahill in a long relief role. Fiers had been solid across 30 starts this season, performing to a 3.56 ERA, while Cahill registered a 3.76 ERA across 110 innings of work. The A’s bullpen ranked third in the big leagues with a terrific 3.37 ERA on the season.

Luis Severino had some rough patches this season yet still finished the season with a 3.39 ERA, backed up by excellent strikeout (28.2%) and walk (5.9%) rates. He finished the season strong, allowing just four runs in 17-2/3 innings over his final three starts. He’ll look to shake the memory of his performance in last season’s AL Wildcard game against Minnesota when he allowed three runs while getting just one single out. Severino is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA in four career starts against the Athletics. Key Matchups: Matt Joyce (1-4, 2 BB), Ramon Laureano (1-2, 2B), Jed Lowrie (6-11, 3 RBI), Jonathan Lucroy (1-2), Chad Pinder (1-4, RBI), Stephen Piscotty (1-2, 2 RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Congratulations to Colorado for a big, extra-inning NL Wildcard win on Wednesday. The Rockies will move on to yet another area code (but same time zone) where they’ll face the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS.

The New What Next: Twins Vs. Yankees — an American League Wildcard Game preview

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The 2017 MLB Postseason is upon us!

The 2017 MLB Postseason kicks off tonight when the New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins in the AL Wildcard Game in the Bronx. Paul Molitor will hand the ball to 34 year old right-hander Ervin Santana, while 23 year old right-hander Luis Severino will take the mound in his first postseason appearance. The Yankees won the season-series, 4-2, including a three-game sweep of the Twins toward the end of September. 

The winner of the Wildcard Game will move on to face the number one seeded team in Cleveland.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Brian Dozier was the offensive leader for Minnesota this season, collecting a .269 average with 34 home runs and 93 RBI. Dozier fared well against the Yankees this season, going 6-19 but with just one RBI. Miguel Sano was activated from the disabled list last weekend and could add some thump to the lineup for this one. The slugger belted two homers and collected four RBI in three-games against the Evil Empire in 2017.

Minnesota ranked seventh in the majors after they averaged 5.03 runs per game, combining to hit .260 as a team. 

Aaron Judge will be in the spotlight after he put together a phenomenal rookie campaign in which the 25 year-old slugger paired 52 homers with 114 RBI. Judge damaged the Twins in six games, going 6 of 19 at-bats with two home runs and six RBI. Judge, however, can be pitched to; the Rays were incredibly successful against Judge because they kept the ball at the bottom of the zone and on the outside corner. Thanks to his time with the ChiSox, Todd Frazier is very familiar with Minnesota. Frazier went 5-39 with four RBI against the Twins this season, and belted two homers with three RBI in 21 career at-bats against Santana.

The Bronx Bummers ranked second in the majors after they averaged 5.30 runs per game, combining to hit .262 as a team. 

(Stats: FanGraphs)

The Twins 4.59 team ERA is worrisome, placing them in the bottom third in the Major Leagues. The Yankees pitching staff, on the other hand, was terrific, performing to a 3.73 team ERA — ranking them fifth in the big leagues.

As Adam Rauzino (Winners and Whiners) noted, Ervin Santana has been outstanding on the road this season, going 10-3 with a stifling 2.71 ERA in his 17 road starts. Furthermore, Santana has pitched well against the Yankees over the last three seasons, limiting them to 10 runs (nine earned) in 25.2 innings which equates to a solid 3.16 ERA. The Twins did score three runs in three innings against Severino this season, plus the Twins feature solid Postseason experience as Santana and Mauer have seen action in the playoffs.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchup

Santana will make his ninth career postseason appearance. The right-hander turned in an excellent season, performing to a 16-8 record and a 3.28 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP over 211-1/3 innings of work. He was solid in his lone start against New York, limiting the Yankees to just two runs over 5-2/3 innings in a game Minnesota lost 2-1. The 34 year-old has struggled against the Yankees over his career, going 6-10 with a sub-optimal 5.66 ERA in 20 career starts. He, however, has limited the Yankees to only 10 runs (nine earned) in 25-2/3 innings of work over the last three seasons. Santana has struggled in his postseason career, notching a poor 5.56 ERA in 22-2/3 innings. Key Matchups: Greg Bird (2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI), Jacoby Ellsbury (10-34, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Brett Gardner (11-31, 3 2B, 2 BB), Chase Headley (4-13, 2B), Matt Holiday (2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Aaron Judge (1-3, HR, RBI), Austin Romine (2-3, 2B, RBI)

Severino will make his first career postseason appearance after he turned in a solid 2017 campaign. The right-hander accompanied a 14-6 record over 31 starts with an impressive 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He made one career start against Minnesota on September 20, allowing three runs over three innings in a game the Yankees won 11-3. Severino has amassed 230 strikeouts over 193-1/3 innings, resulting in a 10.71 K/9 ratio. Key Matchups: Jason Castro (1-1), Brian Dozier (1-1, BB), Joe Mauer (1-2, RBI), Jorge Polanco (1-2, 2 RBI), Kennys Vargas (1-1)

Royals Walk It Off in the 12th, Take the AL Wildcard Game 9-8

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The Kansas City Royals celebrate their 9 to 8 win over the Oakland Athletics in the 12th inning of the American League Wild Card. (Photo courtesy of Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

The Kansas City Royals celebrate their 9 to 8 win over the Oakland Athletics in the 12th inning of the American League Wild Card. (Photo courtesy of Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

Goonies never say die, and apparently neither do the Kansas City Royals. Down 7-2 in the bottom of the eighth inning, with only six outs to go and Jon Lester on cruise control, the Royals scratched out five runs to take the game into extra innings. While Kansas City and Oakland traded their scoring in extras, the Royals struck last with on Salvador Perez walk-off single to left, giving them a 9-8 victory and sending Kansas City to the ALDS where they’ll face the Angels. My favorite stat of the game: the Royals ran wild on the Athletics, swiping a total of seven bags.

While “Big Game” James Shields faltered in his start last night, both he and Wade Davis live to see another day. In his game recap over at DRaysBay, Ian Malinowski wrote,

…Every Rays pitcher since has been made, to some degree, in the image of James Shields. That’s why Shields still captures the imagination, heart, and loyalty of Tampa Bay like no other former player.

Wherever he goes, he still represents The Rays Way, and it was easy for Rays fans to latch on to the Royals, and more specifically, the American League Wild Card game, started by Shields. The Royals, once a hapless franchise, now lead by our talisman, were the next best thing to watching the Rays in the playoffs.

You can read his reacp in its entirety at DRaysBay (linked above) Below are a few GIFs from the game. We’ll put together an ALDS preview later.

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Royals vs. Athletics — An AL Wildcard Preview of Sorts

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The Royals have won 42 of the 68 starts James Shields has made for the team in the last two seasons, their first consecutive winning campaigns in two decades. (Photo courtesy of Kyle Rivas/Getty Images, caption courtesy of the New York Times)

The Royals have won 42 of the 68 starts James Shields has made for the team in the last two seasons, their first consecutive winning campaigns in two decades. (Photo courtesy of Kyle Rivas/Getty Images, caption courtesy of the New York Times)

While I am grizzled by the fact that my team isn’t in the playoffs, I’m pretty excited that my favorite pitcher, James Shields, is getting another shot at the postseason. Since Shields and teammate Wade Davis, along with more than a handful of Athletics, are former Rays, covering Tuesday night’s AL Wildcard Game seemed like a no-brainer.

This being a one-game, winner-take-all elimination round scenario, the winner will earn the right to face the Angels. The Royals — much like the traditional form of the Tampa Bay Rays — aren’t a powerful team, though their rotation and bullpen has leveled the playing field. The Athletics, on the other hand, were baseball’s best team for four months until they were one of its worst for the last two. That is, the Royals were a game from clinching their division thanks to pitching, defense, and timely hitting, while the Athletics legacy was predicated on powerful hitting until the trade deadline, and good pitching overall.

Interestingly enough when you account for Kauffman Stadium, as well as the respective play of both the Royals and A’s on the road at home, both teams are fairly evenly keeled — excepting the GB%, FB%, GB/FB, and HR/FB percentages. While the Royals were last in the AL in both walks and homers, as well as the all-encompassing OPS+, Shields has held opponents to a .43 HR/9 over the last month, and a .91 HR/9 overall. If Juego G can mitigate the powerful, yet slumping Athletics, Kansas City has a chance to be successful by doing what they’ve done all season long.

On the other hand, in 13 games against the Royals in his career, Lester has held Kansas City to a .196 BA/.276 OBP/.264 SLG/.540 OPS line while allowing a single home run in 353 plate appearances. Lester’s posted a 1.84 ERA over 88 innings of work while averaging 6-2/3 innings per outing.

As Mark Narmandin (of SB Nation) notes,

The Royals’ offense is, but they’re pretty used to that by now. They finished last in the AL in OPS+, as mentioned, but just to rub in how poor that is, they finished behind last-place teams like the Red Sox, Rangers and Twins, as well as lineups full of mostly anonymous players in Houston and New York. Again, Gordon can hit, Butler is capable of things that resemble hitting and Cain has his uses at the plate, but otherwise this is not an exciting lineup. Players like backstop Salvador Perez are good enough for their position, but no one truly stands out other than Gordon.

As for the A’s, much was made of them losing Yoenis Cespedes and with him their ability to hit, but there are still plenty of bats here. Josh Reddick came on strong while the rest of Oakland burned around him, and finished with a 115 OPS+. Josh Donaldson had another season that should merit him some MVP consideration. Brandon Moss had a brutal second half at least in part due to injury, but he’s a high-quality hitter who can send the ball into orbit. The strength of Oakland’s attack relies entirely on which version of the team shows up. If it’s the one that outscored opponents by 164 runs in their first 106 games, then Shields will have a tough day on the job. If it’s the A’s from August and September, this is going to be a thrilling 1-0 game lost by the first team to have a pitch catch too much of the plate.

Given that, it’s worth noting that the Royals have two of the game’s faster players on the bench in Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore. Manufacturing a run might not only work, but could be the best idea depending on when Yost decides to go that route.

James Shields, Jon Lester, and the Royals and Athletics bullpen (over the last 30 days).

James Shields, Jon Lester, and the Royals and Athletics bullpen (over the last 30 days).

Royals and Athletics offensive production (at home and away).

Royals and Athletics offensive production (at home and away).

Key matchups vs. James Shields: Alberto Callaspo (6-24, 2 RBI, BB), Craig Gentry (1-3, 2B), Jonny Gomes (1-2, BB), Nick Punto (4-14, 4 BB), Josh Reddick (4 BB), Stephen Vogt (2-6).

Key matchups vs. Jon Lester: Aoki Norichika (4-9, 2 RBI, BB), Lorenzo Cain (5-16, 3 2B, BB), Alcides Escobar (5-17, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Eric Hosmer (4-13, HR, RBI, 3 BB),  Mike Moustakas (3-12, 3 RBI, 3 BB), Jayson Nix (8-26, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Salvador Perez (3-6, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB).

Noteworthiness

  • There was an excellent piece on James Shields in the NY Times, yesterday.
  • Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote on the return of James Shields’ change-up.
  • Also from FanGraphs, per staff writer Dave Cameron, “The A’s/Royals match-up is interesting for a number of reasons, and the difference in performance for wins versus expected wins is one of the more notable story lines. The A’s underperformed their BaseRuns expected total by seven wins; the Royals overperformed their expectation by eight wins. The Wild Card game matches up the team with the largest positive differential against the team with the second largest negative differential, and all of our playoff models are going to put more emphasis on the underlying performances rather than win-loss totals. Thus, the A’s grade out as slight favorites on Tuesday, even given their recent struggles and the fact that they are on the road.”
  • In Rays news, a few Tampa Bay related tweets were brought upon the world on the heels of Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman’s final presser of the 2014 season:

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The Rays Are Division Series Bound!

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Evan Longoria celebrates with his teammates after defeating the Cleveland Indians in the American League Wild Card. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Evan Longoria celebrates with his teammates after defeating the Cleveland Indians in the American League Wild Card. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

It’s crazy when you consider that though the Rays are in the postseason for the fourth time in six years, they hadn’t made it past the first round of the playoffs since 2008… That is, until last night. Alex Cobb, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee and Fernando Rodney did what they are wont to do, shutting down the Indians in their first postseason appearance since 2007. On the other end of things, the offense did just enough, tagging Salazar and Co for four runs in last night’s 4-0 victory. How sweet it is! I live blogged the game, and you can read all of my annoying witticisms at out Tumblr site. A few hungover thoughts and game peripherals are below.

  • It all starts with Cobb. It was obvious from the get go, Alex Cobb didn’t have his A+ stuff Wednesday night — the fastball was spotty and his change-up was all over the place. A+ stuff be damned, Cobb was still able to throw goose eggs on the scoreboard over the span of his 6-2/3 inning outing. The Rays dependable righty scattered nine hits over the course of his start, getting into three wRISP jams along the way. But, akin to a seasoned vet, he was able to make the all important big pitch to put down any Indians uprising — subsequently preserving the shutout.Cobb got into a major jam in the fifth inning with men on the corners and no outs. Cobber wrung up Michael Bourn, then coaxed a ground ball out of Nick Swisher to James Loney at first base. Loney stepped on the bag for the second out, then threw home to hold the runner at third. Though the play allowed Lonnie Chisenhall to advance to second, it prevented a run from scoring. My only criticism of the play, is that the Rays could have caught the runner at third in an inning ending run down. Alex worked two outs into the seventh, allowing the bullpen to rest up for the series in Boston. Not bad for his first postseason start.
  • Delmonster strikes again! Delmon Young got the scoring started in the third inning, blasting a letter high 95mph fastball to deep left field. As Erik Hahmann of DRaysBay noted, “Right handed batters slugged over .550 against Danny Salazar’s fastball this season. Delmon Young is a fastball hitter who isn’t afraid to swing. On this night, Delmon came out on top.” Then with two outs and two on in the fourth inning, Desmond Jennings ripped a two run double down the left field line, giving Tampa Bay a three run lead. Yunel Escobar drove in an insurance run in the ninth, giving the Rays a 4-0 lead they’d never relinquish. 

Tampa Bay has an off-day ahead of game one of the ALDS in Boston, Friday — the fourth game in the fourth different city inside of a week for the Rays. On the bright side, at least they won’t be eliminated right away if they lose the first game this time — a welcome feeling for sure. We’ll have an ALDS preview either later today, or early tomorrow.