The Royals have won 42 of the 68 starts James Shields has made for the team in the last two seasons, their first consecutive winning campaigns in two decades. (Photo courtesy of Kyle Rivas/Getty Images, caption courtesy of the New York Times)
The Royals have won 42 of the 68 starts James Shields has made for the team in the last two seasons, their first consecutive winning campaigns in two decades. (Photo courtesy of Kyle Rivas/Getty Images, caption courtesy of the New York Times)

While I am grizzled by the fact that my team isn’t in the playoffs, I’m pretty excited that my favorite pitcher, James Shields, is getting another shot at the postseason. Since Shields and teammate Wade Davis, along with more than a handful of Athletics, are former Rays, covering Tuesday night’s AL Wildcard Game seemed like a no-brainer.

This being a one-game, winner-take-all elimination round scenario, the winner will earn the right to face the Angels. The Royals — much like the traditional form of the Tampa Bay Rays — aren’t a powerful team, though their rotation and bullpen has leveled the playing field. The Athletics, on the other hand, were baseball’s best team for four months until they were one of its worst for the last two. That is, the Royals were a game from clinching their division thanks to pitching, defense, and timely hitting, while the Athletics legacy was predicated on powerful hitting until the trade deadline, and good pitching overall.

Interestingly enough when you account for Kauffman Stadium, as well as the respective play of both the Royals and A’s on the road at home, both teams are fairly evenly keeled — excepting the GB%, FB%, GB/FB, and HR/FB percentages. While the Royals were last in the AL in both walks and homers, as well as the all-encompassing OPS+, Shields has held opponents to a .43 HR/9 over the last month, and a .91 HR/9 overall. If Juego G can mitigate the powerful, yet slumping Athletics, Kansas City has a chance to be successful by doing what they’ve done all season long.

On the other hand, in 13 games against the Royals in his career, Lester has held Kansas City to a .196 BA/.276 OBP/.264 SLG/.540 OPS line while allowing a single home run in 353 plate appearances. Lester’s posted a 1.84 ERA over 88 innings of work while averaging 6-2/3 innings per outing.

As Mark Narmandin (of SB Nation) notes,

The Royals’ offense is, but they’re pretty used to that by now. They finished last in the AL in OPS+, as mentioned, but just to rub in how poor that is, they finished behind last-place teams like the Red Sox, Rangers and Twins, as well as lineups full of mostly anonymous players in Houston and New York. Again, Gordon can hit, Butler is capable of things that resemble hitting and Cain has his uses at the plate, but otherwise this is not an exciting lineup. Players like backstop Salvador Perez are good enough for their position, but no one truly stands out other than Gordon.

As for the A’s, much was made of them losing Yoenis Cespedes and with him their ability to hit, but there are still plenty of bats here. Josh Reddick came on strong while the rest of Oakland burned around him, and finished with a 115 OPS+. Josh Donaldson had another season that should merit him some MVP consideration. Brandon Moss had a brutal second half at least in part due to injury, but he’s a high-quality hitter who can send the ball into orbit. The strength of Oakland’s attack relies entirely on which version of the team shows up. If it’s the one that outscored opponents by 164 runs in their first 106 games, then Shields will have a tough day on the job. If it’s the A’s from August and September, this is going to be a thrilling 1-0 game lost by the first team to have a pitch catch too much of the plate.

Given that, it’s worth noting that the Royals have two of the game’s faster players on the bench in Jarrod Dyson and Terrance Gore. Manufacturing a run might not only work, but could be the best idea depending on when Yost decides to go that route.

James Shields, Jon Lester, and the Royals and Athletics bullpen (over the last 30 days).
James Shields, Jon Lester, and the Royals and Athletics bullpen (over the last 30 days).
Royals and Athletics offensive production (at home and away).
Royals and Athletics offensive production (at home and away).

Key matchups vs. James Shields: Alberto Callaspo (6-24, 2 RBI, BB), Craig Gentry (1-3, 2B), Jonny Gomes (1-2, BB), Nick Punto (4-14, 4 BB), Josh Reddick (4 BB), Stephen Vogt (2-6).

Key matchups vs. Jon Lester: Aoki Norichika (4-9, 2 RBI, BB), Lorenzo Cain (5-16, 3 2B, BB), Alcides Escobar (5-17, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Eric Hosmer (4-13, HR, RBI, 3 BB),  Mike Moustakas (3-12, 3 RBI, 3 BB), Jayson Nix (8-26, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), Salvador Perez (3-6, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB).

Noteworthiness

  • There was an excellent piece on James Shields in the NY Times, yesterday.
  • Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wrote on the return of James Shields’ change-up.
  • Also from FanGraphs, per staff writer Dave Cameron, “The A’s/Royals match-up is interesting for a number of reasons, and the difference in performance for wins versus expected wins is one of the more notable story lines. The A’s underperformed their BaseRuns expected total by seven wins; the Royals overperformed their expectation by eight wins. The Wild Card game matches up the team with the largest positive differential against the team with the second largest negative differential, and all of our playoff models are going to put more emphasis on the underlying performances rather than win-loss totals. Thus, the A’s grade out as slight favorites on Tuesday, even given their recent struggles and the fact that they are on the road.”
  • In Rays news, a few Tampa Bay related tweets were brought upon the world on the heels of Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman’s final presser of the 2014 season:

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