Rookie RHP Alex Cobb dominating the Orioles. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times. Click here for a full set of photos from the game)
Update: Go to sleep happy, wake up groggy… Well, it was a nice run, but with the Rangers 4-3 loss, the Rays are officially (mathematically) out of the playoff hunt. The emphasis officially shifts to “Rodney Watch: 2012,” and ending the season strongly. One would assume that the next two games will be the last for Carlos Peña and BJ Upton, at least in a Rays uniform. Get out to the Trop and send them off in style folks!
I’m not sure about the other Raysbaseball.co folks, but my emphasis now changes and I’ll be writing about the Rays Hot-Stove rumors shortly. Who we should expect to see on the roster next season? I’m on it! In any case, enjoy these last two games, and Let’s Go Rays! I love my small market team!
With their backs up against the wall, the Rays walk into the Trop to face the Orioles in this all important series. The entire season depends on what the Rays and the A’s are able to do over the next three days. We could very well be talking about getting out to the Trop to send BJ Upton off in style. Or, we could possibly be talking about a team that needs to win in order to see the light of another day. Rinse and repeat Wednesday too! Oh the drama of meaningful baseball! Personally, I’ll be on “Rodney makes history” watch. Whatever the case, Let’s Go Rays!
Rays October 1, 2012 Starting Lineup
Jennings LF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Keppinger 1B
Francisco DH
Fuld RF
Roberts 2B
Gimenez C
Cobb RHP
Noteworthiness: Chris Gimenez will get his third consecutive start tonight. It bears mentioning that Gimenez is 3-6 with a homer since he’s gotten the nod behind the plate. Sam Fuld will hold down the duties in right-field, while Jeff Keppinger finds himself at first with Chen (a lefty) on the mound.
CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 30: Fernando Rodney #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays gets a hug from manager Joe Maddon #70 after their win against the Chicago White Sox on September 30, 2012 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-2. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
Its come down to this. Tampa Bay has three more games to play in the regular season, and those three games are against the Baltimore Orioles, a team that’s already clinched a playoff berth. Throughout the season detractors have wondered when the O’s would sink. It’s finally set in: Buck Showalter and the Orioles are the real deal. And now both teams will face one another one last time within the framework of the regular season.
There is a lot on the line for both teams. Tampa Bay enters the upcoming home-stand with a slim hope of making it to the postseason. They also sit three games behind the Athletics for the last wildcard spot. They’ll look to continue their current hot streak down to the end, while we all scoreboard watch to see if the A’s lose their next three games against the Rangers. The Orioles, on the other hand, look to win the east outright, avoiding a potential tie-breaker and/or the one game wildcard playoff.
Tampa Bay needs the Rangers to do them a big by sweeping the Athletics. If Texas can take all three games, and the Rays can sweep the Orioles, Tampa Bay would face the Athletics in a one game tie-breaker for the last wildcard spot. I know what you’re thinking, if only this season could be as clear-cut as 2010…sigh. In any case, the fight is on.
The Rays knew what was at stake when they entered the stretch, following that miserable road trip against the Orioles and Yankees. And they really have done a great job since, going 10-1 in their last 11, while averaging six plus runs a game. Just the sheer thought that they could go 13-1 in their last 14, while accruing 91 victories overall is a testament to a team that has striven overcome their offensive struggles all season. Sadly, there is an all to real possibility that they could accomplish those feats yet miss the postseason entirely.
All is not lost. After all, the Rays have really set themselves up well for 2013. We know what holes in the lineup need to be filled, and the opportunity to start filling those holes is not that far down the road. But that’s fodder for a future piece that’s…ahem, already in the works. Nevertheless, both David Price and Fernando Rodney are battling it out for the Cy Young award, BJ Upton is a mere two homers shy of joining the 30-30 club. And speaking of Fernando Rodney, he’s just a 1/3 of an inning away from breaking Dennis Eckersley’s record of forty-plus saves and a 0.61 ERA. It would still be really nice to see Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the third season in a row. Whatever the case, it all starts Monday.
Rays and Orioles series starters over the last 14 days.Rays and Orioles offensive production at home and away, (respectively) and over the last 14 days.
Apparently there was a fire aboard the Orioles chartered flight en route to the bay area.
It’s pretty remarkable how similar the Rays and O’s are offensively. A brief peek at the production numbers (above) find mirror like images of one another.
Rotowire has this to say of the Orioles starters: Chen struggled Monday night against the Blue Jays, allowing five runs over his five innings of work. Gonzalez gave up two earned runs in seven innings as the Orioles beat the Blue Jays, 12-2, on Wednesday. Tillman was brilliant Friday night against the Red Sox, allowing one unearned run on one hit, walking two and striking out four over eight innings of a 9-1 decision.
Alex Cobb (10-9, 4.18) gets the ball for Tampa Bay Monday, hoping to continue his team’s excellent run of starting pitching. Rays’ starters are 7-1 with a 2.32 ERA in the past 11 games.
The Rays have averaged 6.8 runs during their last 11-games. Jeff Keppinger is hitting .425 (17 for 40) with three homers in that stretch. And though Keppinger is hitting .250 (11 for 44) this season against the Orioles, he is 4 for 8 against Wei-Yin Chen (12-10, 4.11 ERA). Chen is 0-3 with a 5.14 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed five runs and nine hits — two of them homers — over five innings in a 9-5 loss to Toronto last Monday.
How do the Rays bats stack up against the Orioles starters? Let’s see:
Wei Yin Chen: Just because Chen got batted around by the Blue Jays doesn’t mean the Rays are going to have an easy outing. Posting a .222 BA/.290 OBP/.233 SLG/.523 OPS line against, Tampa Bay has driven in a measly six runs in 90 at-bats against. Key match-ups: The Rays have put up some fairly lackluster numbers against Chen, posting a .222 BA/..290 OBP/.233 SLG/.523 OPS line against. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (1-3), Sam Fuld (2-5, BB), Chris Gimenez (1-3), Matt Joyce (1-4, BB), Jeff Keppinger (4-8, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (1-3), Ryan Roberts (2-6), Ben Zobrist (5-12, RBI)
Miguel Gonzalez: The Rays have put up decent numbers against Gonzalez. I hope the Gonzalez that showed up on Wednesday doesn’t show up tomorrow. Tampa Bay has posted a .268 BA/.414 OBP/.464 OPS/.879 OPS line against Gonzalez. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (2-3, 2B, RBI), Elliot Johnson (1-2, 2 RBI, 2BB), Evan Longoria (1-2, BB), Carlos Pena (2-6, RBI, 2 BB), Ryan Roberts (2-6, HR, 2 RBI, BB), BJ Upton (3-8, 2B, HR, RBI)
Chris Tillman: The Rays have put up odd numbers against Tillman. They have a hard time getting base-hits, yet their slugging percentage and OPS aren’t bad. The Rays have posted a .236 BA/.375 OBP/.500 SLG/.875 OPS against, with 11 RBI in 72 at-bats. Key match-ups: Sam Fuld (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Matt Joyce (3-9, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (4-10, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), BJ Upton (3-11, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Ben Zobrist (3-16, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)
Yeah yeah, the Orioles clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 1997. Actually, that is pretty awesome. I more bummed that the Yankees have found themselves in contention again, while the Rays probably won’t make it at all. How cool would it have been to see the changing of the guard this season. The Rays and O’s in the postseason would be golden.
The Rays sit with a tragic number of one. Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, put the importance of this series as well as the probability of them even getting to the postseason into perspective. You can check that out here.
According to Cool Standings, the Rays chances of making it to the playoffs have dwindled to 1%, with Oakland claiming a 97.6% chance of making it past game 162. Tampa Bay would have to sweep the O’s, while the Athletics would have to be swept by the Rangers in order for the Rays to even get the opportunity to play Oakland in a game 163 tie-breaker. Weirder things have happened. I suppose the Rays need to have the theories that surround particle physics on their side.
David Price effectively claimed the Cy Young Award yesterday by getting his 20th win of the season. Price wasn’t nearly as dominating as he could have been, yet his 7.0 IP/5 H/2 ER/2 BB/4 K line was more than enough to solidify a win, while becoming the first Ray to win 20 games. Congrats Pricey! Next up: Fernando Rodney needs only a 1/3 of an inning of scoreless baseball to propel him past Dennis Exckersley’s 22 year-old milestone record. I remember when Eckersley set the record back in 1990. A 0.61 ERA after 70-plus innings of work seemed like an impossible feat to overturn. I never thought that I’d see the day when someone would even come close…not even Mariano Rivera. I hope you people make it out to the Trop, or watch any of the games on TV this week. History begs to be broken by Kimbo!
Did I mention how phenomenal this is?
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0PRyyNwL0Y]
Tampa Bay Rays’ Jeff Keppinger, left, celebrates with Ben Zobrist after hitting a two-run home run during the third inning of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox in Chicago, Saturday, Sept. 29, 2012. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
It all comes down to today folks. If the Rays can beat the ChiSox and the A’s, O’s, and Angels lose, Tampa Bay can enter their final home stand against Baltimore with a shot at the wildcard…assuming they can sweep the Orioles. A tall order indeed.
The only other conceivable scenario, at least that I can think of, would be if the Orioles win today yet the Rays are able to sweep them this week, and the other wildcard contention teams drop the rest of their games. In any case, the Rays have got to win the next four games. Is it Probable that the Rays will make it into the postseason? No. Is it possible? Sure.
“We have to believe we’re going to get the help while we take care of our own business. We’re 1-0 on Saturday, let’s go 1-0 on Sunday,” said manager Joe Maddon in his post game presser, following the Rays dominating win (synopsis below) against the White Sox. “I’m like the biggest scoreboard watcher, but at the end of the day I can’t worry about that.”
We also still believe in our guys chances of making it to the playoffs, until the math proves otherwise. And we’ll still cheer Tampa Bay on, even if the worst case scenario were to come to fruition.
Besides, there is still a lot to look forward to even if the Rays don’t make it to the postseason for the third year in a row. A win by Price would effectively lock him in for the Cy Young award. He’d also be the first Ray to win 20 games. Don’t forget that Fernando Rodney needs only 2.1 innings of scoreless baseball to break Dennis Eckersley’s 22 year-old record. And let’s assume that the Rays do win the next four games; they will end the season with 91 wins, going 13-1 down the stretch. That, in and of itself, is pretty incredible.
Okay, I’ll save the end of the season sappiness for game 162. Until then, here’s another pointless game synopsis as a series of tweets.
The Third Inning
Kepp follows Zobrists RBI double with a two run homer. Rays up 3-0 in the third with only one out. 162Strong!
I’d like to personally thank Fox for playing Van Halen’s Panama as their segue music into the between innings commercials. Nice touch!
The Fourth Inning
Now Upton with an RBI single, moving Gimenez to third. Sale pulled after 3-1/3 with men on the corners and only one out. Rays 4-0 in the fourth.
Longo singles home Gimenez, yet Upton is gunned down at the plate. Rays enter the Sox half of the fourth up by five.
@Ken_Rosenthal: We wish you’d call the game instead of McCarver. Can we fan ballet you into the booth?
RTMarc Topkin @TBTimes_Rays: Moore breaks Scott Kazmir’s Rays rookie record of 175 strikeouts in a season.
The Sixth Inning
Chris Gimenez with his first homer in a Rays uniform. Tampa Bay now up by six, 6-0 in the sixth. Three sixes, hmm. #ListentoIronMaiden
Desmond Jennings now with his second stolen bag of the game. Rays with three steals so far. Man on second, one out.
Zo walks and now two on with one out. Longoria at the plate. Someone call it. (editors note: Longoria ultimately struck out)
Farnsworth in one out into the sixth to face Youkilis. Moore threw a hell of a game, allowing three base runners on one hit and two walks.
Moore with a big bounceback though, 5 1/3 IP/1 H/2 BB/5 K. Hadn’t gone more than 4 IP in his previous 3 starts.
Farnsy gets Dunn on a hell of a change-up to end the inning. Rays are still up by six, going into the seventh. 6-0.
Question answered. Archer in for the seventh until ???
The Seventh Inning
Matt Joyce makes it 7-0 by going yard to center.
Luke Scott in to pinch hit for Sean Rod.
Now Scotty gets on base with a single to right. One on and one out in the seventh.
Rays strand two to end the inning. Still up 7-0. Archer was warming in the pen. Might he be coming in to close out the last three?
Wow, great play by Roberts ranging to his left, subsequently diving for the ball to end the inning. In other news, the Sox got another hit. (editors note: at this point, the Sox had only one hit on the day)
The Eighth Inning
Wow! Matt Joyce just hit his second blast to center. This time a three-run shot, and the Rays are up 10-0 in the eighth. #162Strong!
RTMarc Topkin @TBTimes_Rays: Rays get Longoria, Upton and Zobrist off their feet with 10-0 lead, as Brignac, Thompson and E. Johnson are in.
At the moment the Rays have plated 10 runs, yet have struck out 15 times. Wha??? #GoFigure
Ventura puts the great pumpkin in to pinch hit. C’mon Arch, strike him out! (editors note: Archer walked DanJo to load the bases)
Archer gives up a first pitch, pinch hit grand slam…with two outs no less. Ugh.
The eighth is finally over. Rays still own a six run lead, 10-4.
The Ninth Inning
Vogt is now 0-22 as he grounds out to short.
RT RMooneyTrib @RMooneyTrib: A’s rally for win against Mariners so Rays will remain 3 back of the second wild card spot providing they hold on to this 6 run lead.
Brandon Gomes in to close out the game.
Put a fork in it, Rays win 10-4 following a Tyler Flowers foul out to Carlos Peña.
Moving Forward
Here we go ladies and gentlemen. The Rays start the day four games behind the Yankees and Orioles who are tied for first, and 3.5 out in the wildcard race. They’ll be depending on losses by the teams in front of them if they hope to maintain some relevance going into their upcoming home stand. Nevertheless, this should be a fun one. David Price will take the mound, and we’ve all seen what he’s been able to accomplish this season. Let’s go Rays, Red Sox, Rangers, and Mariners!
Rays 9/30/12 Starting Lineup
Jennings LF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Keppinger 1B
Scott DH
Francisco RF
Roberts 2B
Gimenez C
Price LHP
Noteworthiness: Chris Gimenez gets the start behind the plate following a big day in the batters box yesterday. Luke Scott is back in the lineup at DH, with Jeff Keppinger getting another start at first.
Hey, at least Zo uncorked one. That’s a good thing, right? (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
Wait, you didn’t catch the game last night?! Worry not, you didn’t miss much. Here’s a brief rundown:
Beb Zobrist started the game by uncorking his 19th homer of the year in the first inning. Things looked on the up and up…
Then the rest of the game happened. Oof.
Gavin Floyd allowed seven base runners on five walks and two hits, but the Rays were only able to plate one run. The Rays weren’t without scoring opportunities, yet they ended the night 0-6 wRISP, stranding eight men on base.
As BA put it, Floyd was able to make that big pitch when he needed to. You can say that again. His line wasn’t too impressive, yet it’s almost like he mimicked Shields’ mediocre outing the night before, posting a 5 IP/2 H/1 ER/5 BB/6 K line, on 105 pitches. (57 for strikes) By the way, you read that right, Floyd had six strikeouts, yet only threw 57 strikes. (54% K/BB percentage) Remember how the Rays had been working better at-bats over the course of their eight game winning streak? Yeah well, at least someone did, because they certainly couldn’t remember.
Jeremy Hellickson wasn’t horrible, yet he wasn’t able to make it to the seventh innings for the 13th time this season. Ugh. Helly posted a 5.2 IP/9 H/3 R/2 ER/1 BB/2 K line, on 93 pitches. (61 for strikes)
The pen looked good though, working 2-1/3 innings, giving up only one hit while striking out five.
Oh yeah, the A’s, O’s, and Angels won last night. The Rays start the day three games back in the wildcard race, and four games behind the O’s.
Moving Forward
Matt Moore will face Chris Sale in the third game of this four game series. I hoped that the Rays could have two consecutive wins against the White Sox prior to facing Sale. Face it, his stats speak for themselves, and it seemed reasonable to assume that Tampa Bay wouldn’t have won this game. Even though Sale is winless in his last two starts, he was able to pitch through his mistakes against Cleveland on Monday, allowing three runs and 10 hits (matching a season high) in seven innings. It should be noted that Sale is 9-2 with a 1.89 ERA at home. He allowed one run and three hits while striking out a career-high 15 in 7 1/3 innings of a 2-1 victory against the Rays back in May.
Matt Moore is 0-4 with a 5.72 ERA in his last six starts with Tampa Bay winning just one of them. Though he contends that he doesn’t feel fatigued, asserting that fatigue is “definitely not the issue,” I have to feel that he’s running out of gas. A quick peak at his fastball velocity chart (below) shows a fairly dramatic drop in his velocity.
Matt Moore velocity chart (Courtesy of Fan Graphs)
Joe Maddon pulled Moore early in his last start, and I’d imagine that he’ll be on a very short leash today as well. The question begs, who will fill the long relief roll if he gets the old heave-ho early? Cesar Ramos? Chris Archer?
We’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.
