Do the Creep! Happy Never Forget 9/28/11 Day!

Tampa Bay Rays closer Fernando Rodney celebrates after the Rays defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-2 in a baseball game in Chicago, Thursday, Sept. 27, 2012. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Yesterday we wrote about Fernando Rodney’s success. Call me a fan boy, but I just feel the need to write about him again today. Why? Call me crazy, but being a mere 2.1 innings shy of breaking Dennis Eckersley’s record, potentially ending the season with a sub 0.61 ERA while accruing forty or more saves, is pretty well…incredible. Will he be able to set the with only six games left of the season? That fails be seen just yet.

Let me clarify a bit. In my eyes, it isn’t a question of whether he has the capacity to make history. Having given up only four earned runs in 71 innings of work is evidence enough that Rodney is capable of this feat. That Rodney has a 5:1 K/BB ratio (72 K’s, 15 BB) only gives credence to that. Rather it’s a question of whether he’ll get the opportunity to make history with only six games left. I, for one, hope he will.

There’s been much to do over who should win the AL Cy Young Award, as many people have mentioned Rodney’s name with the other greats on the list. I’d prefer to not get into the fray. One thing is certain though, our closer undoubtedly has the stuff to be a Cy Young contender. Even to be mentioned as a potential candidate is an honor. Esteemed company as it were.

Sometimes I wish a good back story would be considered, when deliberating who is deserving of the honor. Sure, it is to some extent. I’d note that David Price having to do more heavy lifting than Weaver or Verlander this season will more than likely be considered.

But that’s not the type of prologue that I’m talking about. I’m, more or less, referring to the trials and tribulations that any given player has had to face; the things that cannot be quantified. If it was, Rodney would easily capture the vote of the baseball writers. After all, who’d ever have imagined that a 35 year-old pitcher in the tenth year of his professional career…a pitcher that has mediocre career numbers at best, would be the second coming of Dennis Eckersley? Certainly not me.

In the end, I’m confident that Rodney will be lauded with his fair share of honors. At least he should be, and the more the merrier in my opinion. The question then begs, should he be considered in the running for MVP, along with Ben Zobrist and David Price? The simple answer: yes. But I’m jumping the gun a bit. We’ve still got six games to go!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward

Much to the chagrin on the O’s, A’s, and Angels, the Rays improved their odds of a postseason berth by 9%, according to Cool Standings. Tampa Bay now finds itself in the thick of the playoff hunt thanks to losses by both the A’s and Angels, an Orioles off-day, and the Rays hard fought win. It wasn’t pretty, but the outcome is all that matters. (Bulleted highlights and low-lights are below)

The Rays will, again, take on the ChiSox tonight in the Windy City. Jeremy Hellickson (9-10, 3.20 ERA) and Gavin Floyd (10-11, 4.56 ERA) will toe the rubber, as both teams attempt to continue to play meaningful baseball into October. The Rays are in the throes of an eight game winning streak, their longest winning streak since 2004, and their longest with Joe Maddon at the helm. I could be crazy, but the Rays actually look like they want this.

With the events of 366 days ago ever present in the collective consciousness of the Rays, the fans, and baseball aficionados alike, could we expect a little magic out of our guys in the remaining six games of the season? Here’s to hope.

  • James Shields didn’t have the Juego G stuff last night, but he certainly had enough to keep the score close. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the ChiSox are batting .128 with runners in scoring position over the last 11 games, while averaging 2.4 runs in their last nine. Shields posted a 6.1 IP/6 H/2 ER/4 BB/2 HBP/6 K line on 117 pitches. (69 for strikes)
  • Hey Jake Peavy, it was clearly obvious that you balked in the second inning. You’d better count your blessings that the umps recalled their initial, well…call, and forced Keppinger to come back to third. I will say however, that you pitched a pretty damn good game otherwise.
  • Evan Longoria and Luke Scott going yard, while plating two runs? We like that. How’s about y’all do that again tonight? While I’m thinking about it, LUKE had a good night at the plate, going 2-3 with a run and an RBI on the aforementioned homer.
  • ‘Los, you’re starting to make up for your inadequacies at the plate this season. That sac-fly, driving home Ben Zobrist, proved to be huge.
  • The ChiSox went 1-8 wRISP, stranding ten men on the bags. Credit the Rays pitchers for getting out of a pair of bases loaded situations relatively unscathed. McGee, the double play you induced in the seventh was big.
  • The Rays start their day of action within two games of the second wildcard spot and tied with the Angels, and three games behind the O’s. So let’s go Rays, Rangers, Red Sox, and Mariners!
Rays 9/28/12 Starting lineup

Fuld LF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Scott DH
Keppinger 2B
Pena 1B
Joyce RF
Lobaton C
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness: Super Sammy Fuld is ready to play in the field once more, and will get the start in left-field tonight over Desmond Jennings, and leading off. Carlos Peña and Evan Longoria will again get the start at first and third respectively. Can they go for their ninth straight for the first time since 2004? Well, it is the anniversary of game 162, so why not?

Rays 9/27/12 Starting Lineup

Rays 9/27/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Pena 1B
Keppinger 2B
Scott DH
Joyce RF
Lobaton C
Shields RHP

Noteworthiness: Jose Lobaton gets the start behind the plate with Jose Molina still day-to-day. “Molina said quad feels a little better but not enough to play. Cold weather here a concern too. Plans to try to run today,” tweeted Mark Topkin. Also, we could expect Sam Fuld to return in this series.

Do the Creep! The Fernando Rodney Edition

Seriously, how good has this guy been?!

Last night Fernando Rodney saved his 45th game of the season, tying the franchise single season save record which was previously set by a former closer (he who shall not be named) back in 2010. Better yet, Rodney still has ample opportunity to lay claim to soul possession of the Rays save record with seven games left in the season. And though 45 (or more) saves is quite an accomplishment for any pitcher, it’s not the only mark of greatness that the Rays closer has the opportunity to surpass. If Rodney can accrue a mere 3.1 scoreless innings between now and the end of the season, he will go down in the annals MLB history as the only relief pitcher to have a sub 0.61 ERA with more than forty saves, breaking the record previously set by Dennis Eckersley in 1990. Not to shabby for a pitcher with a career 3.77 ERA who’s only had a sub 3.00 ERA once in ten years of big league experience. Suffice to say, the Rays should pick up his option in the upcoming off-season. But that’s neither here or now.

Tampa Bay picked up Rodney for a cool $1.75 MM, (and a $2.5MM option for the 2013) season following a lackluster 2011 season, where the hard throwing RHP went 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA. Andrew Friedman and Co. saw something in Rodney, a player that’s had a storied history of control issues. Rodney posted a 1:1 K/BB ratio on the backs of 28 walks just a season prior.

There was a fair share of chatter over why the Rays would even want to sign Fernando. But Tampa Bay has had a track record of rejuvenating the careers of pitchers that have found themselves traveling down a wayward path, and maybe they could do the same with Rodney. In any case, at only $1.75 MM, it was easily worth the risk. Considering that he’s posted an almost 5:1 K/BB (71 K/15 BB) ratio, it almost seems silly that any of us questioned Friedman’s move.

He’d be the first to tell you that he’s always had good stuff, and he has. So what’s the difference? We think that he made a simple tweak: Rodney’s pitching from the first base side of the rubber.

On the left is Rodney’s set-up from a game in late-April, 2011. On the right is Rodney from earlier this season. Look at Rodney’s foot placement relative to the rubber. Rodney was closer to the third base side in the older image, (left) while he is now all the way to the first base side of the rubber. (Photo courtesy of Baseball Prospectus)

Also, take a look at the chart below which shows Rodney’s horizontal release points by the year. At no point has Rodney been this far to the first base side of the rubber.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball

Sure, it could all be a coincidence. But you really can’t help but wonder if shifting over to the left has made a huge difference in his previous control issues. You’ve also got to also wonder if it helped his Bugs Bunny change-up, while also making it easier for Rodney to nestle the inside corner of the plate, making it a more attractive pitch for a batter to swing at.

The New What Next
Rays and White Sox series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and White Sox offensive production at home and away, (respectively) and over the last 14 days.
  • Chicago has averaged 2.5 runs and hit .226 the last eight games.
  • The Rays start the day three games behind Oakland for the second AL wild card and must also overtake the Los Angeles Angels.
  • Tampa Bay, has outscored opponents 55-17 during their seven game winning streak, and looks to win eight in a row for the first time since a club-record 12-game run June 9-22, 2004.
  • The White Sox swept a three-game series against the Rays on the road in May.
  • How do the Rays match-up to the ChiSox starters? Let’s see.
  1. Jake Peavy: The Rays have posted a .309 BA/.350 OBP/.545 SLG/.895 OPS against Peavy, though they haven’t faced him since 2010. Key match-ups: Reid Brignac (3-6, 2B, 3 RBI), Carlos Pena (3-10, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Ryan Roberts (1-3), Sean Rodrigues (1-2), BJ Upton (2-5, 2B, BB), Ben Zobrist (3-4, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)
  2. Gavin Floyd: Tampa Bay has posted a .242 BA/.307 OBP/.438 SLG/.745 OPS line against Floyd, with a handful of players putting up some good numbers. Key match-ups: Reid Brignac (2-7), Sam Fuld (2-7, 2B, 2 RBI), Chris Gimenez (2-6), Matt Joyce (3-8, 2B, BB), Jeff Keppinger (1-3), Luke Scott (5-17, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (4-14, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB)
  3. Chris Sale: Ugh. The Rays have posted a .100 BA/.229 OBP/.100 SLG/.329 OPS line against Sale, with only Jose Lobaton posting good numbers against.
  4. Francisco Liriano: Tampa Bay has posted much better numbers against Liriano than, well…Chris Sale. They’ve put up a .264 BA/.398 OBP/.460 SLG/.858 OPS line against. Key match-ups: Sam Fuld (1-2, 2B, 2 BB), Chris Gimenez (2-6, 2B, 2 BB), Desmond Jennings (1-2, HR, 3 RBI), Elliot Johnson (1-3, RBI), Evan Longoria (5-16, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Jose Molina (2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), BJ Upton (5-17, 2 2B, RBI, 2 BB)
  • Rotowire had this to say about the White Sox series starters: Floyd took the loss against the Angels on Sunday after allowing four runs on seven hits over six innings. Sale was impressive Monday night against the Indians, allowing three runs over seven innings of work. Liriano was knocked around Tuesday, giving up four runs on seven hits and two walks over 3.2 innings, in the White Sox’s 4-3 loss to the Indians.
  • The A’s lost Thursday, so with a Rays win tonight they would be within two games of second wild card.

Do the Creep! Price Dominates As the Rays Take Down Boston (Rays 9/26/12 Starting Lineup Included)

BOSTON, MA – SEPTEMBER 25: David Price #14 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the game on September 25, 2012 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

Knowing first hand what Clay Buccholz is capable of, the Rays needed a great start out of their co-ace David Price. And a great start they got, as Price and Tampa Bay rolled to a 5-2 complete game victory over the Red Sox last night. The Rays were able to pull within three games of the wildcard and 3.5 games of the Orioles in the AL East following losses by the A’s and O’s. The Rays will try to make it seven consecutive victories tonight, when Alex Cobb and the Rays take on Jon Lester and the Red Sox in their final match-up of the season.

Price was outstanding last night. Though had you asked me, after the second and third innings whether I thought he’d go deep into the game, I’d have said no.

The Cy Young candidate started things off on a good note, coercing a 1-2-3 inning on a pop out, a ground out, and a strike out. But Price ran into trouble in the second and third innings, giving up two runs on six hits and a rather embarrassing balk. But then something happened, following a meeting on the mound between Jose Molina and Price. “I felt like their approach to me in the second and third inning was very good,” said Price. “I felt like they were trying to hit all the fastballs to right field, [and] that put ’em on time with the cutter. Granted it was catching too much plate and it was too much middle away. Molina came and talked to me after the third inning, told me we’re going to switch some stuff up and give them some different looks and we kept doing that and it was pretty smart words,” Price would tell MLB.com after the game.

Price made an adjustment toward the end of the third inning, relying as he started to rely heavily on his off-speed stuff. Price threw 34 curveballs (78% for strikes, 24% whiffs) and 18 changeups (85% for strikes, 24% whiffs) in the innings that followed his shaky start. What’s more, Price used an off-speed pitch to record 13 of the final 18 outs. David Price would go on to finish what he started, ultimately posting a 9.0 IP/7 H/2 ER/0 BB/13 K line, giving up only one more after he gave a total of six in the second and third innings combined, while striking out 13.

With this, his 19th win of the season, Price became the third pitcher (since 1918) to have at least 13 strikeouts and no walks in a complete game against the Red Sox. David Price and James Shields, became one of pair of seven teammates to post 200+ strikeouts in back-to-back years, while they both have also accrued 200+ innings for the second consecutive season.

I’d be hesitant to call Price the absolute hero of the game, as the Rays hitters were able to do something that many have failed to do against Clay Buccholz since the end of May: score more than four runs. Tampa Bay was able to tag Buccholz for five runs (four earned) on eight hits and two walks, including a huge Jeff Keppinger three-run blast over the Green Monstah in the second inning, giving the Rays a lead they’d never relent. I should mention that Kepp had flu like symptoms, and didn’t know if he was even up to playing until just before the game. That kids, is called grittiness.

I’d like to give a shout out to Jose Molina, who went 2-3, driving in Jeff Keppinger on a sixth inning single to left. Molina pulled a quad muscle on that play, and is listed as day-to-day. I’ve got to give credit where it’s due; Molina has raised his batting average 39 points and his slugging percentage 61 points since August 1st. Perhaps that he has seen more consistent play has benefited him well. And to be fair, the Rays looked good at the plate overall, striking out six times while plating five runs and converting 33% of men in scoring position.

Having dropped his last three starts to the Rays, Jon Lester is 10-7 in 21 career outings against Tampa Bay, with a 4.29 ERA. But I’m certainly not dumb enough to call this a sure win for the Rays. I will say however, that it would suit them well if they approached Lester like they did Buchholz the night before. And if the Rays could repeat what they did to Lester back in May, that would be cool too. Anything to give the Rays momentum going into their next big series against the other Sox is okay by me.

Rays 9/26/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings RF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Keppinger DH
Pena 1B
Francisco LF
Roberts 2B
Lobaton C
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness: Francisco in left and Jennings in right…wha??? Odd? Yes. Without reason? Absolutely not. Joe Maddon chose to put Jennings and Francisco in these positions because there’s much more ground to cover in right than in left.

Do the Creep! A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words (Rays 9/25/12 Starting Lineup Included)

20120925-065843.jpg
What a wonderful way to start the day.

Thanks to losses by both the O’s (who lost game two of the double header against the Jays) and the A’s, Tampa Bay didn’t lose any ground in the AL East, and now find themselves 3.0 games out in the wildcard race.

Tampa Bay will start an important two-game series against those bastards in Boston, tonight. On the mound for the Beantown bums: Clay Buccholz and Jon Lester. The Rays will counter with David Price and Alex Cobb.

The Red Sox are 0-1 against the Rays this season, when Lester is on the mound. He finds himself with a 15.75 ERA in his only start against when he gave up seven earned runs on seven hits, while lasting only four innings.

Buccholz, on the other hand, has been a tougher nut to crack. He’s 1-1 in his three starts this season against Tampa Bay. He was outstanding in his last start against last week, which ended up as a no-decision. He’s really cleaned up his act of late, posting a sub three ERA in June, July, August, and September. Buccholz has given up seven runs in his three starts against the Rays, though they’ve only been able to squeeze two runs out of him in the last two games.

It’ll be tough on our resurgent Rays, but I have to think they’re more than up to the task.

Rays 9/25/12 Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Scott DH
Keppinger 2B
Joyce RF
Pena 1B
Molina C
Price LHP

Noteworthiness: With Evan Lingoria at third and ‘Los at first, Luke Scott and Jeff Keppinger find themselves at DH and second respectively.

Let’s go Rays! #162Strong.