CHICAGO, IL – SEPTEMBER 30: Fernando Rodney #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays gets a hug from manager Joe Maddon #70 after their win against the Chicago White Sox on September 30, 2012 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Chicago White Sox 6-2. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)

Its come down to this. Tampa Bay has three more games to play in the regular season, and those three games are against the Baltimore Orioles, a team that’s already clinched a playoff berth. Throughout the season detractors have wondered when the O’s would sink. It’s finally set in: Buck Showalter and the Orioles are the real deal. And now both teams will face one another one last time within the framework of the regular season.

There is a lot on the line for both teams. Tampa Bay enters the upcoming home-stand with a slim hope of making it to the postseason. They also sit three games behind the Athletics for the last wildcard spot. They’ll look to continue their current hot streak down to the end, while we all scoreboard watch to see if the A’s lose their next three games against the Rangers. The Orioles, on the other hand, look to win the east outright, avoiding a potential tie-breaker and/or the one game wildcard playoff.

Tampa Bay needs the Rangers to do them a big by sweeping the Athletics. If Texas can take all three games, and the Rays can sweep the Orioles, Tampa Bay would face the Athletics in a one game tie-breaker for the last wildcard spot. I know what you’re thinking, if only this season could be as clear-cut as 2010…sigh. In any case, the fight is on.

The Rays knew what was at stake when they entered the stretch, following that miserable road trip against the Orioles and Yankees. And they really have done a great job since, going 10-1 in their last 11, while averaging six plus runs a game. Just the sheer thought that they could go 13-1 in their last 14, while accruing 91 victories overall is a testament to a team that has striven overcome their offensive struggles all season. Sadly, there is an all to real possibility that they could accomplish those feats yet miss the postseason entirely.

All is not lost. After all, the Rays have really set themselves up well for 2013. We know what holes in the lineup need to be filled, and the opportunity to start filling those holes is not that far down the road. But that’s fodder for a future piece that’s…ahem, already in the works. Nevertheless, both David Price and Fernando Rodney are battling it out for the Cy Young award, BJ Upton is a mere two homers shy of joining the 30-30 club. And speaking of Fernando Rodney, he’s just a 1/3 of an inning away from breaking Dennis Eckersley’s record of forty-plus saves and a 0.61 ERA. It would still be really nice to see Tampa Bay in the playoffs for the third season in a row. Whatever the case, it all starts Monday.

Rays and Orioles series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Orioles offensive production at home and away, (respectively) and over the last 14 days.
  • Apparently there was a fire aboard the Orioles chartered flight en route to the bay area.
  • It’s pretty remarkable how similar the Rays and O’s are offensively. A brief peek at the production numbers (above) find mirror like images of one another.
  • Rotowire has this to say of the Orioles starters: Chen struggled Monday night against the Blue Jays, allowing five runs over his five innings of work. Gonzalez gave up two earned runs in seven innings as the Orioles beat the Blue Jays, 12-2, on Wednesday. Tillman was brilliant Friday night against the Red Sox, allowing one unearned run on one hit, walking two and striking out four over eight innings of a 9-1 decision.
  • Alex Cobb (10-9, 4.18) gets the ball for Tampa Bay Monday, hoping to continue his team’s excellent run of starting pitching. Rays’ starters are 7-1 with a 2.32 ERA in the past 11 games.
  • The Rays have averaged 6.8 runs during their last 11-games. Jeff Keppinger is hitting .425 (17 for 40) with three homers in that stretch. And though Keppinger is hitting .250 (11 for 44) this season against the Orioles, he is 4 for 8 against Wei-Yin Chen (12-10, 4.11 ERA). Chen is 0-3 with a 5.14 ERA in his last six starts. He allowed five runs and nine hits — two of them homers — over five innings in a 9-5 loss to Toronto last Monday.
  • How do the Rays bats stack up against the Orioles starters? Let’s see:
  1. Wei Yin Chen: Just because Chen got batted around by the Blue Jays doesn’t mean the Rays are going to have an easy outing. Posting a .222 BA/.290 OBP/.233 SLG/.523 OPS line against, Tampa Bay has driven in a measly six runs in 90 at-bats against. Key match-ups: The Rays have put up some fairly lackluster numbers against Chen, posting a .222 BA/..290 OBP/.233 SLG/.523 OPS line against. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (1-3), Sam Fuld (2-5, BB), Chris Gimenez (1-3), Matt Joyce (1-4, BB), Jeff Keppinger (4-8, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (1-3), Ryan Roberts (2-6), Ben Zobrist (5-12, RBI)
  2. Miguel Gonzalez: The Rays have put up decent numbers against Gonzalez. I hope the Gonzalez that showed up on Wednesday doesn’t show up tomorrow. Tampa Bay has posted a .268 BA/.414 OBP/.464 OPS/.879 OPS line against Gonzalez. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (2-3, 2B, RBI), Elliot Johnson (1-2, 2 RBI, 2BB), Evan Longoria (1-2, BB), Carlos Pena (2-6, RBI, 2 BB), Ryan Roberts (2-6, HR, 2 RBI, BB), BJ Upton (3-8, 2B, HR, RBI)
  3. Chris Tillman: The Rays have put up odd numbers against Tillman. They have a hard time getting base-hits, yet their slugging percentage and OPS aren’t bad. The Rays have posted a .236 BA/.375 OBP/.500 SLG/.875 OPS against, with 11 RBI in 72 at-bats. Key match-ups: Sam Fuld (2-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Matt Joyce (3-9, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (4-10, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), BJ Upton (3-11, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Ben Zobrist (3-16, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)
  • Yeah yeah, the Orioles clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 1997. Actually, that is pretty awesome. I more bummed that the Yankees have found themselves in contention again, while the Rays probably won’t make it at all. How cool would it have been to see the changing of the guard this season. The Rays and O’s in the postseason would be golden.
  • The Rays sit with a tragic number of one. Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, put the importance of this series as well as the probability of them even getting to the postseason into perspective. You can check that out here.
  • According to Cool Standings, the Rays chances of making it to the playoffs have dwindled to 1%, with Oakland claiming a 97.6% chance of making it past game 162. Tampa Bay would have to sweep the O’s, while the Athletics would have to be swept by the Rangers in order for the Rays to even get the opportunity to play Oakland in a game 163 tie-breaker. Weirder things have happened. I suppose the Rays need to have the theories that surround particle physics on their side.
  • David Price effectively claimed the Cy Young Award yesterday by getting his 20th win of the season. Price wasn’t nearly as dominating as he could have been, yet his 7.0 IP/5 H/2 ER/2 BB/4 K line was more than enough to solidify a win, while becoming the first Ray to win 20 games. Congrats Pricey! Next up: Fernando Rodney needs only a 1/3 of an inning of scoreless baseball to propel him past Dennis Exckersley’s 22 year-old milestone record. I remember when Eckersley set the record back in 1990. A 0.61 ERA after 70-plus innings of work seemed like an impossible feat to overturn. I never thought that I’d see the day when someone would even come close…not even Mariano Rivera. I hope you people make it out to the Trop, or watch any of the games on TV this week. History begs to be broken by Kimbo!

Did I mention how phenomenal this is?
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0PRyyNwL0Y]

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