Cleveland, OH, USA; San Diego Padres catcher Rene Rivera (44) throws against the Cleveland Indians in game two at Progressive Field. San Diego won 2-1. (Photo courtesy of David Richard/USA Today Sports)
Rene Rivera throws against the Cleveland Indians in a game at Progressive Field. (Photo courtesy of David Richard/USA Today Sports)

I’ll admit it, my first reaction when yesterday’s mega deal was preliminary announced — a deal which sent catcher Ryan Hanigan to the Padres in return for a no-named, journeyman catcher named Rene Rivera — was a bit boisterous and, well…reactionary. It went something like this, ahem, “WHAT THE FUCK?!” After all, Hanigan was the presumed catcher of the future, and the Rays dealt him to the Padres.

Hanigan was supposed to be the savior of sorts. He is intelligent, frames pitches well, boasts a career .319 OBP, and works with pitching staffs better than most. Moreover, the Rays were in need of a backup catcher, and my initial gut reaction was that Rivera was nothing more than a replacement level catcher — that is, he would have been the backup catcher to Hanigan. In the words of Dillinger Four, Sell the House Sell the Car Sell the Kids Find Someone Else Forget It I’m Never Coming Back Forget It!

But at some point between 8:30 Wednesday night and the moment I started to pen this piece, I had a change of heart. A question I dared ask myself, what if this portion of the trade was positive? I fully acknowledge that I had a change of heart, partly because of what I’ve read about Rivera — despite the fact that he’s now with his seventh organization in 11 years, Rivera is a solid backstop.

Let’s expand on that premise.

Money Matters

The Rays were able to wipe $8M off the books in the trade — Hanigan was set to earn $3.5M in 2015 and $3.7M 2016, and his contract also boasted an $800K buyout on his $3.75M option for 2017. While the average savings of $3.65M per year isn’t a terribly high (relatively speaking, of course), for a small market team like the Rays, it’s an awful lot of money to be spending on Hanigan who was injured for much of last season. On the other hand, Rivera is projected to make $5.85M over the same span — $1.3M in 2015, and a projected $1.95 M in 2016 and $2.6M in 2017* — 1/4 – 1/3 less than Hanigan overall.

Defensive Stuffs

The ability to frame pitches is a skill the Tampa Bay Rays find incredibly important. Both Jose Molina and Ryan Hanigan were known for their ability to frame pitches, and Rivera is pretty impressive in his own right. Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) wrote about Rivera’s framing skills at length, noting,

By the Baseball Prospectus numbers, Molina has been worth 31.6 framing runs per 7000 chances (roughly what a full season of playing time would look like) over the course of his career, while Hanigan has been worth 16.3 runs per 7000, and Rivera 18.0 runs per 7000.

Recently, though, Hanigan’s framing numbers have declined, perhaps due to injury or age, while Rivera has improved on a mediocre 2011, his only other year in the books. Last season specifically, Hanigan produced at a rate of 12.7 runs per 7000, while Rivera bought his pitchers 22.1 runs per 7000. Rivera was simply better.

StatCorner also boasts some bang-up numbers. At 1.75 stolen strikes per game, Rivera is the fourth best framer in baseball — just behind Christian Vazquez (1.80 per game), former Ray Jose Molina (1.81 per game), and Hank Conger (2.21 per game).

Miles Wray (Hardball Times) was quick to note,

Back in May, Jeff Sullivan noticed that the Padres — then as now dawdling along, winning 45 percent of their games — were leading the league in “stolen” strikes, or pitches that PITCHf/x deemed out of the zone but were called strikes anyway. Writing for Fox Sports, Sullivan showed that the Padres had “stolen” a net of 52 extra strikes through the first month and a day of the season, a comfortable margin ahead of Jonathan Lucroy and the second-place Milwaukee Brewers (then with 47), considerably ahead of the Jose Molina/Ryan Hanigan duo of the Tampa Bay Rays (then with 22), and so far ahead of the last-place Minnesota Twins (who had “lost” 44 strikes at that point) that they couldn’t be seen around the earth’s curvature. Writing for FanGraphs later that same month, Sullivan noticed that, of all the pitchers in baseball, Padres starter Andrew Cashner was experiencing the biggest jump in stolen strikes from 2013 to 2014.

Cashner’s jump can be directly attributed to Rivera.

Here’s a small sampling of Rivera earning his pitchers 0-1 counts, thanks to his ability to frame pitches that are low in the zone:

[youtube_sc url=”http://youtu.be/8jHVlJ8sJPo”]

While the ability to frame a pitch is important, there are other skills that are equally as important, like controlling the running game. Rivera holds a career 39% caught stealing percentage, gunning down 36% of would be base stealers in 2014. Juxtapose that with Hanigan who has a career 38% caught sealing percentage (gunning down 21% in 2014), and Molina who holds a career 37% caught stealing percentage (27% in 2014).

Another facet of Rivera’s game is his ability to block pitches in the dirt; a pretty crucial facet of the game when you take into consideration that Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi, Chris Archer, and Drew Smyly like to entice whiffs by throwing filthy breaking pitches in the dirt. A quick question — if you were on the hill, would you feel comfortable enough to throw a breaking in the dirt with Molina behind the plate?

Hanigan was an excellent pitch blocker who saved an average of about three runs per season. On the other hand, Molina was abysmal, costing the Rays an average of six runs per season. The pitch f/x data finds Rivera nestled between the two.

The Offensive End of Things 

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Rene Rivera, Ryan Hanigan, and Jose Molina’s career offensive numbers. (Source: FanGraphs)
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Rene Rivera, Ryan Hanigan, and Jose Molina’s 2015 offensive projections. (Source: FanGraphs)

Offensively speaking, Ryan Hanigan has been pretty good over his career — at least for a catcher. He’s posted a pretty good BB%/K% (11.9% vs 10.7%), and he owns a career .353 OBP. He knows the zone and works good at-bats.

Need I even bring up Molina’s offensive prowess?

Rene Rivera has been less successful at the plate which can be partially explained by his infrequent number of plate appearances until last season, when he came to the plate 329 times in 103 games. Over the span of his career Rivera’s walked 6.1% of the time while striking out in 24.5% of the time, culling together an ugly .279 OBP along the way.

However, what Rivera lacks in consistent at-bats, he makes up for in the power department — something neither Hanigan nor Molina can blow their horns about. Don’t get me wrong, Rivera is no Puig — his .130 ISO is merely average. However, when you compare his ISO to that of Hanigan (.085) and Molina (.094), one thing becomes abundantly clear: Rivera has a measured amount of pop. What’s more, Steamer projects that both Rivera and Hanigan will produce similarly in 2015 in weighted runs created (90 wRC for Rivera, 85 wRC for Hanigan) and overall offensive output.

In conclusion, there is no doubt that Ryan Hanigan is a quality catcher who would be an asset to any team. However, that doesn’t change the fact that Rene Rivera is also a solid catcher. While the 34 year-old, injury prone Hanigan could be entering the twilight of his career, Rivera is trending upward and has a decent chance of bolstering the Rays roster over the next couple years — making less money and carrying less risk all-the-while.

*Based off the 40/60/80 model; those figures may or may not be wholly accurate

Noteworthiness:

  • “It seems to make more sense to at least start the season with free-agent-to-be INF/OF Ben Zobrist, but there may be a scenario in which he gets moved before that if the Rays are overwhelmed by an offer,” writes Marc Topkin.
  • Topkin went on, “Without Myers (and Matt Joyce), it sure seems the Rays need more offense, someone else to try to protect Evan Longoria. Looking over what Silverman acknowledged was a dwindling free-agent market, options could include Ryan Ludwick, Colby Rasmus, Ichiro Suzuki, Chris Denorfia, and ex-Rays Jonny Gomes and Delmon Young. Another scenario is to wait and see which team blinks first and eats almost all the bad-contract money on a distressed veteran such as Ryan Howard, ex-Ray B.J. Upton or, dare we say it, Alex Rodriguez.”
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