Hot-Stove: Scarce Updates on the Odorizzi Trade Front

Tampa Bay Rays de facto closer Brad Boxberger collected 41 saves in 2015. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Times)
Tampa Bay Rays de facto closer Brad Boxberger collected 41 saves in 2015. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Times)

All I know is that I don’t know,
All I know is that I don’t know nothing.

― Jesse Michaels, Operation Ivy vocalist

A week deferred from the trade whispers surrounding Jake Odorizzi, and we’re none the wiser as to whether a deal between the Tampa Bay Rays and now two other reported suiters is anything more than hearsay. Still, a few newsworthy nuggets broke the surface of the baseball blogosphere ― clods which added a touch of clarity to the murky rumors.

On Tuesday, the St. Louis Cardinals ― one of the teams supposedly in discussions on Odorizzi ― inked a five year, $80-million deal with RHP Mike Leake. And while it’s thought that they may look to further improve their starting rotation, the Cardinals are no longer in need of an arm to fill the rotational hole left in the wake of John Lackey.

Later that afternoon, Jon Morosi (Fox Sports) wrote of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ interest in 27 year-old Japanese hurler Kenta Maeda.

Furthermore, according to Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports), even as the Dodgers pursue Maeda, the team is continuing to show interest in former Rays’ ace Scott Kazmir. Too, there is some thought among rival executives that L.A. could make a play for yet another veteran southpaw, Wei-Yin Chen.

The interest in Maeda, Kazmir and Chen is telling, as it relates to the Dodgers pursuit of, and interest in, a Rays hurler — namely Odorizzi.

Still Jim Duquette (MLB.com) sees things differently, and it is his opinion that Andrew Friedman should make a play for both Odorizzi and reliever Brad Boxberger. In spite of the organizational view that they (the Rays) see themselves as contenders in 2016, a package of high and mid-level prospects would balance out the fact that they would be giving up a pair of impact players:

In return, the Rays would be targeting a package featuring left-hander Julio Urias (The Dodgers’ No. 2 prospect), righty Jose DeLeon (No. 3 prospect) and second baseman Micah Johnson (No. 8), as well as some other mid-level prospects. Urias, DeLeon and Johnson are all close to contributing at the Major League level, and would balance out the fact that they would be giving up a pair of cost-controlled impact players.

In my opinion, the interest in free agent hurlers speaks to Friedman’s reluctance to deal away top and mid level prospects. I still believe that if the Rays front office truly views the team as contenders in 2016, it would make more sense to deal Drew Smyly ― or even Matt Moore or Alex Cobb ― than it would the presumed number two starter. True, at an estimated surplus value of $75-million, the haul for Odorizzi would be greater. Yet with Smyly, it’s a matter of when the proverbial shoe will drop, leading to left shoulder surgery. A deal for Drew would allow the Rays to defer the potential for injury. As for Cobb ― who is recovering from Tommy John surgery ― since he wouldn’t be activated from the DL until August, he would likely be paired with another trade piece.

Noteworthiness

― The Pittsburgh Pirates announced on Twitter Wednesday that they signed DH/OF John Jaso to a two-year, $8-million contract. Jaso will join a platoon with Michael Morse at first base, where he has only played two games in his career.

 

Hot-Stove: Dodgers, Cardinals, and Rangers Interested in Jake Odorizzi

The Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly in talks with Tampa Bay Rays' hurler Jake Odorizzi. (Photo Credit: Gammons Daily)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly in talks with Tampa Bay Rays’ hurler Jake Odorizzi. (Photo Credit: Gammons Daily)

12/19/15 update: On Friday I wrote about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ alleged interest in RHP Jake Odorizzi (below). On Saturday, Jon Morosi (Fox Sports) tweeted that both the Cardinals and Rangers are interested in a trade that would send a starting pitcher from Tampa Bay to St. Louis or Texas. Morosi noted that Odorizzi, who grew up not far from St. Louis, is the likely target.

It should be mentioned that the Odorizzi part is merely speculation, and no deal is imminent. I would add that if the Rays front office truly views the team as contenders in 2016, it would make more sense to deal Drew Smyly ― or even Matt Moore or Alex Cobb ― than it would the presumed number two starter. True, at an estimated surplus value of $75-million, the haul for Odorizzi would be greater. Yet with Smyly, it’s a matter of when the proverbial shoe will drop, leading to left shoulder surgery. A deal for Drew would allow the Rays to defer the potential for injury. As for Cobb ― who is recovering from Tommy John surgery ― since he wouldn’t be activated from the DL until August, he would likely be paired with another trade piece.

 

Moments after Zach Links (MLB Trade Rumors) broke the news that the Tampa Bay Rays discussed a starting pitcher/outfielder swap with the Colorado Rockies, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers fired up trade discussions for Jake Odorizzi.

The Dodgers hoped to fill the hole in their starting rotation by inking Hisashi Iwakuma to three-year, $45-million deal. However, reported concerns over a failed physical forced the Dodgers to rework the contract with the veteran hurler. Uncertainty over the new terms with ensued, causing Iwakuma to re-sign with his former team, the Mariners. Andrew Friedman and company now have to weigh the alternatives ― in this case, Odorizzi.

In spite of an oblique strain that limited the righty to 169-1/3 innings in 2015, Odorizzi pitched well for Tampa Bay in each of the past two seasons. And while he doesn’t possess an overpowering fastball ― averaging around just 91 mph ― Odorizzi has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts at an above-average clip. In his last 337-1/3 innings (extending back to 2014), the righty collected a 3.74 ERA/3.73 FIP/8.6 K9/2.8 BB9 line.

The timing of the news is rather interesting, coming shortly after the team made a proposal for a multi-year contract extension. Odorizzi’s agent referred to the proposal as a “very nice initial offer,” and suggested that a counter proposal should expected in the near future. However, Odorizzi being mentioned in trade discussions could be a signal that the extension negotiations have stalled or totally broken down.

Jake is controllable for another four years, so it should be assumed that Tampa Bay would expect a significant haul to part with Odorizzi. That question begs, what is he worth? Thanks to Danny Russell (DRaysBay), we have a rough estimate of his surplus value.

Using the recent WAR projections from FanGraphs, Odorizzi is projected to be worth a combined 12 WAR/$96-million by 2019 ― his age 29 season. Given that arbitration normally yields $20-million across three arbitration years, it’s a safe assumption that Odorizzi has surplus value in the neighborhood of $75-million.

With that number in mind, Topkin noted that Los Angeles boasts a roster with a fair number of “young big-leaguers (OF Joc Pederson, for example) and veterans whose contracts they could pay large chunks of that might appeal to the Rays, with OF Yasiel Puig the most intriguing.”  Additionally, after Wednesday’s three-way deal with the White Sox and Reds, the Dodgers are flush with prospects and they can afford to make a strong offer to Tampa Bay.

Odorizzi’s name sparked interest during the 2015 Winter Meetings, yet the discussions that followed only fueled speculation over the 26 year-old right handed hurler. Even now, despite rumors that may suggest otherwise, nothing between the Rays and Dodgers is imminent (Twitter link).

Whatever the case, we’ll keep you abreast of any updates if or when things unfold.

 

 

Hot-Stove: Rays Close to Finalizing A Deal with Dana Eveland

The Rays are close to signing 32 year-old LHP Dana Eveland to a Minor League deal. (Photo Credit: Atlanta Sports Page)
The Rays are finalizing a Minor League deal for 32 year-old LHP Dana Eveland. (Photo Credit: Atlanta Sports Page)

The Tampa Bay Rays are close to finalizing a Minor League deal for 32 year-old LHP Dana Eveland, with an invitation to Spring Training as they seek to add pitching depth.

Eveland pitched to a 5.40 ERA (7.33 FIP) across 10 games and 3-1/3 innings for the Atlanta Braves last season. He, however, fared better in stints at Triple-A for the Red Sox, Orioles and Braves, garnering a 4-0 record and 1.95 ERA over 33 games and 55-1/3 innings of work.

Converted to a reliever in 2014, Eveland fanned 23.5% of batters faced over 27-1/3 innings while walking just 5.2%. He was also able to coax a groundball 53.8% of the time. The result was a healthy 2.64 ERA/.220 OBA/.321 SLG/.261 OBP/.582 OPS line.

In a recent piece on Eveland, Ian Malinowski (DRaysBay) found that the lefty was most effective against left-handed batters:

Eveland’s work was evenly split between righties and lefties that season, but the success came mostly against the lefties ― 1.78 FIP compared to 4.71 FIP.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) opined that Eveland could be slotted into either a starting or relief role, and I would add that his 2014 L/R FIP splits would allow him to slip into the left-handed specialist role. Malinowski came to the same conclusion.

According to his Texas Leaguers player’s card, Eveland boasts a 90 mph four-seam fastball/sinker combination, and a low 80’s slider with sweeping movement to the glove side of the plate (see the video below). What’s more, the deception created by his arm-slot would undoubtedly play well against left-handed hitters.

Would he be an apt replacement in the rotation should the Rays deal a starter? Probably not. In spite of that, if you are looking for a reliever that could excel in a one-and-done capacity against a left-handed batter, Eveland could be your man.

Hot-Stove: Trade Discussions Surrounding Jake McGee Are Intensifying

According to the internet, the trade rumors surrounding Jake McGee (above) are intensifying. Then again, according to the internet, big foot exists. (Photo Credit: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports)
According to the internet, the trade discussion surrounding Jake McGee (above) are intensifying. Then again, according to the internet, big foot exists. (Photo Credit: Adam Hunger/USA Today Sports)

Trade discussions surrounding Tampa Bay Rays’ LHP reliever Jake McGee have intensified over the past 24-to-48 hours reports Jon Morosi (FOX Sports). Both McGee and RHP reliever Brad Boxberger have drawn significant interest, and several have suggested that half of the back end duo is likely to be moved.

McGee fired off 37-1/3 solid innings of work last season, collecting a 2.41 ERA/11.6 K9/1.9 BB9/38.9% GB rate along the way. Over the past two seasons, he has accumulated a 2.07 ERA and 138 strikeouts with just 22 unintentional walks (spanning 108-2/3 innings). 

McGee makes a bit more sense as a trade candidate, given his projected $4.7-million salary in 2016, and the fact that he has only two years of club control remaining. Despite his reliability out of the Rays’ bullpen, McGee has just two remaining years of arbitration eligibility which will only make him more expensive. Compare that with Boxberger, who is slated to earn $500-thousand next season, won’t be arbitration eligible until 2017, and won’t be a free agent until after the 2019 season.

Morosi also noted that the Dodgers* make sense as a landing spot, given Andrew Friedman’s familiarity with the left handed hurler.

Both McGee and Boxberger have been linked to a handful of other teams, however, it’s thought that two clubs — namely the Astros and Phillies — are out of the running since they already have acquired relief help. Minnesota is said to be in the market for left-handed relief help, and the Twins aren’t expected to make a play for top-of-the-market free agent lefties.

Assuming a trade could be agreed upon, McGee would undoubtedly boost any ball-club’s bullpen — while also fetching the Rays a considerable return.

On a related side note, it’s thought that Tampa Bay could re-engage Chicago on a deal for Javier Baez, with the news of the Jason Hayward acquisition.

The Cubs reportedly have had talks with the Padres about Tyson Ross and the Indians about both Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco, yet it isn’t known if any discussions have been extended toward the Rays.

As I wrote yesterday, in four of the past five years, the Rays returned home from the Winter Meetings and closed a deal within a couple of weeks at most. With the team normally being very deliberate, one could assume that we may be in for an interesting couple of weeks.

*The Dodgers are reportedly moving on from their pursuit of Aroldis Chapman after allegations of domestic violence. 

 

 

Hot-Stove: Winter Meetings Come to a Close; Rays Lose Two Players in Rule-5 Draft

Rays manager Kevin Cash speaking with Neil Solondz at the 2015 Winter Meetings. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
Rays manager Kevin Cash speaking with Neil Solondz at the 2015 Winter Meetings. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The 2015 Winter Meetings have come to a close, and the Tampa Bay Rays have nothing to show for their efforts aside from a handful of productive conversations. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, however, as the Rays entered the meetings with no glaring roster wants or needs.

On Wednesday, Rays President of Baseball Operations Matt Silverman called the last three days busy, so busy that he reportedly wasn’t sure of the day or time. Yet Tampa Bay did not make a move, and Silverman didn’t classify anything as on the verge of occurring.

The Rays typically use the meetings more for the foundation building, using the productive conversations and gathered information as a means to construct trades.

In four of the past five years, the Rays returned home from the Winter Meetings and closed a deal within a couple of weeks at most. With the team normally being very deliberate, one could assume that we may be in for an interesting couple of weeks.

As of now, the likeliest move would be a trade that includes 1B James Loney. With Richie Shaffer and Logan Morrison waiting in the wings, there is quite the logjam at first base. According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays are willing to eat some of Loney’s $8-million contract, making him more attractive to a team, like the Brewers, who are in the market for a first baseman.

Meanwhile, Major League Baseball announced a series of recommendations to improve fan safety at ballparks. Among the proposals, teams will now be expected to lengthen their current foul-ball netting so that it extends from the near end of one dugout (the area closest to home plate) to the other one, covering field level seats. The Rays will be among the teams complying with this recommendation. The material used will be similar to what already is in place.

In spite of that, Vice President of Operations Rick Nafe says Tampa Bay’s spring training facility in Port Charlotte already meets Major League Baseball’s newly minted recommendations.

Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft took place Thursday, and Tampa Bay lost two players in the Major League portion of the draft ― oufielders Tyler Goeddel and Joey Rickard. Goeddel went first overall to the Phillies, while Baltimore selected Rickard.

This is the second consecutive season the Rays lost a player taken first overall in the Rule 5 Draft. The Arizona Diamondbacks selected catcher Oscar Hernandez with the first selection last season, and he remains with Arizona despite missing much last season due to injury.

The Rays protected Blake Snell, Jake Faria, German Marquez, Taylor Guerrieri, and German Marquez from this year’s Rule 5 Draft. Both Snell and Guerrieri have a shot at cracking the 25-man roster in 2016.

Goeddel converted to the outfield in 2015 and hit .279 BA with a .783 OPS over 123 games for the Double-A Montgomery Biscuits, collecting double digits in doubles, triples, and homers. He also swiped 28 bases. Rickard jumped from the Advanced-A Charlotte Stone Crabs to the Triple-A Durham Bulls over the span of one season, and was voted the Organization’s Baserunner of the Year after stealing 23 bags. Rickard also hit .321 BA with an .874 OPS between the three levels.

Goeddel and Rickard likely would have started 2016 with the Durham Bulls. Since Joey Butler was claimed off waivers by Cleveland, and Boog Powell was dealt to Seattle in November, Tampa Bay might need to bolster its Triple-A depth. Mikie Mahtook and Taylor Motter could start in Durham if they don’t make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training, while Johnny Field and Davron Varona are also possibilities within the organization.

In the minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft, Tampa Bay added three pitchers ― LHP Adam Kolarek (Baltimore), RHP Yoel Espinal (New York), and RHP Fernando Baez (St Louis) ― and lost catcher Maxx Tissenbaum, who was taken by the Miami Marlins.

Scott Grauer (DRaysBay) wrote about the three hurlers:

Kolarek, a 26-year-old lefty and Baltimore native, never threw a pitch in the Orioles organization. He was signed to a minor league deal in October after spending six seasons in the Mets organization, briefly reaching Triple A. In 351 innings in his career, he has 349 strikeouts and a 3.56 earned-run average.

His groundball rate was 62.3% in 2015, which is much higher than his rate in previous seasons. The Rays may have some familiarity with him because he’s pitching on the same Puerto Rican pitching staff as Edrick Agosto and Jesus Ortiz, a pair of Rays prospects.

Espinal, 23, has pitched for the Tigers and Yankees and briefly reached full-season ball in 2015. The Yankees gave him a shot after seeing him at an area showcase when he showed some mid-90s velocity. In two seasons pitching in the U.S., the Dominican has 95 strikeouts and 79 walks in 99 1/3 innings.

Baez, who is also 23, is a former catcher but converted to the mound after two seasons in the Dominican Summer League. He pitched for Class-A Peoria in 2015, and in 153 career innings, he has 186 strikeouts and 97 walks.