12/19/15 update: On Friday I wrote about the Los Angeles Dodgers’ alleged interest in RHP Jake Odorizzi (below). On Saturday, Jon Morosi (Fox Sports) tweeted that both the Cardinals and Rangers are interested in a trade that would send a starting pitcher from Tampa Bay to St. Louis or Texas. Morosi noted that Odorizzi, who grew up not far from St. Louis, is the likely target.
Sources: #STLCards have had trade talks with #Rays aimed at acquiring a starting pitcher. Jake Odorizzi is from the St. Louis area.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 19, 2015
#Rangers still trying to trade for a starter, as I just reported on @MLBNetwork: Odorizzi, Carrasco, Salazar, Cashner among possibilities.
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 18, 2015
It should be mentioned that the Odorizzi part is merely speculation, and no deal is imminent. I would add that if the Rays front office truly views the team as contenders in 2016, it would make more sense to deal Drew Smyly ― or even Matt Moore or Alex Cobb ― than it would the presumed number two starter. True, at an estimated surplus value of $75-million, the haul for Odorizzi would be greater. Yet with Smyly, it’s a matter of when the proverbial shoe will drop, leading to left shoulder surgery. A deal for Drew would allow the Rays to defer the potential for injury. As for Cobb ― who is recovering from Tommy John surgery ― since he wouldn’t be activated from the DL until August, he would likely be paired with another trade piece.
Moments after Zach Links (MLB Trade Rumors) broke the news that the Tampa Bay Rays discussed a starting pitcher/outfielder swap with the Colorado Rockies, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers fired up trade discussions for Jake Odorizzi.
With pitching depth and soaring prices, #Rays are exploring a number of trade options. @JonHeymanCBS has them talking Odorizzi w/#Dodgers
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) December 17, 2015
The Dodgers hoped to fill the hole in their starting rotation by inking Hisashi Iwakuma to three-year, $45-million deal. However, reported concerns over a failed physical forced the Dodgers to rework the contract with the veteran hurler. Uncertainty over the new terms with ensued, causing Iwakuma to re-sign with his former team, the Mariners. Andrew Friedman and company now have to weigh the alternatives ― in this case, Odorizzi.
In spite of an oblique strain that limited the righty to 169-1/3 innings in 2015, Odorizzi pitched well for Tampa Bay in each of the past two seasons. And while he doesn’t possess an overpowering fastball ― averaging around just 91 mph ― Odorizzi has shown the ability to rack up strikeouts at an above-average clip. In his last 337-1/3 innings (extending back to 2014), the righty collected a 3.74 ERA/3.73 FIP/8.6 K9/2.8 BB9 line.
The timing of the news is rather interesting, coming shortly after the team made a proposal for a multi-year contract extension. Odorizzi’s agent referred to the proposal as a “very nice initial offer,” and suggested that a counter proposal should expected in the near future. However, Odorizzi being mentioned in trade discussions could be a signal that the extension negotiations have stalled or totally broken down.
Jake is controllable for another four years, so it should be assumed that Tampa Bay would expect a significant haul to part with Odorizzi. That question begs, what is he worth? Thanks to Danny Russell (DRaysBay), we have a rough estimate of his surplus value.
Using the recent WAR projections from FanGraphs, Odorizzi is projected to be worth a combined 12 WAR/$96-million by 2019 ― his age 29 season. Given that arbitration normally yields $20-million across three arbitration years, it’s a safe assumption that Odorizzi has surplus value in the neighborhood of $75-million.
With that number in mind, Topkin noted that Los Angeles boasts a roster with a fair number of “young big-leaguers (OF Joc Pederson, for example) and veterans whose contracts they could pay large chunks of that might appeal to the Rays, with OF Yasiel Puig the most intriguing.” Additionally, after Wednesday’s three-way deal with the White Sox and Reds, the Dodgers are flush with prospects and they can afford to make a strong offer to Tampa Bay.
Odorizzi’s name sparked interest during the 2015 Winter Meetings, yet the discussions that followed only fueled speculation over the 26 year-old right handed hurler. Even now, despite rumors that may suggest otherwise, nothing between the Rays and Dodgers is imminent (Twitter link).
Whatever the case, we’ll keep you abreast of any updates if or when things unfold.