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Looking Backward While Moving Forward: welcome back King Chris; Rays blank Orioles, 2-0

Welcome back, Chris Archer! The Tampa Bay Rays ace returned to form on Monday with his best, and longest, outing of the season. Meanwhile Archer’s battery mate, Curt Casali, drove in both runs. That was enough for Tampa Bay, who handed the Baltimore Orioles their first shutout of the season, 2-0.

It all started with an impressive start by Archer, who, prior to Monday night, was winless in his first four starts. Archer set the tone by throwing first pitch strikes to 11-of-the-first-12 batters he faced. He also mixed his pitches well, baffling the Orioles batters by mixing in a dangerous, yet unfamiliar weapon: a filthy changeup that had split finger action.

Archer established his changeup (20 thrown, 16 strikes, 6 whiffs) early, using it to collect four of his first five strikeouts. It also made his slider (18 thrown, 15 strikes, 5 whiffs) ― which while not in top form ― that much better. In the end, however, it all began with fastball command, which the righty had in spades. Of the 47 fastballs thrown, 31 went for strikes.

The Orioles had their best chance against Archer in the third after Pedro Alvarez doubled to left to start the inning. Unfazed, Archer got Jonathan Schoop to line to second, Joey Rickard to strike out swinging and Manny Machado to bounce to third, ending the inning.

The Orioles only got a pair of runners as far as second base against Archer (both coming on Alvarez doubles). All told, he scattered five hits over 6-2/3 innings, and didn’t walk a batter while striking out 10. In nine starts with Casali behind the plate, Archer now owns a 2.30 ERA.

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By the by, if there is still a concern over a presumed drop in fastball velocity, Archer averaged 95.4 mph Monday night and maxed out at 98.2 mph.

Tampa Bay broke the 0-0 deadlock in the fifth. Steven Souza Jr. walked (yes, you read that right) on a borderline 3-2 pitch with one out. After Kevin Kiermaier flew-out to center, Casali ran the count full before lashing a double to left. Off with the pitch, Souza scored all the way from first.

It looked like a breakout inning was in the making after Kevin Gausman hit Logan Forsythe and walked Steve Pearce. Yet an offensive outburst was not to be ― Evan Longoria flew out to right, ending the threat. Gausman needed 32 pitches to get through the inning.

Baltimore’s starter was pulled, in favor of Brian Matusz, in the sixth after throwing 92 pitches. The left-handed Matusz began the sixth by walking Corey Dickerson. After the southpaw retired the next two batters, Souza singled to left and Kiermaier walked to load the bases.

Vance Worley, replaced Matusz, and hit Casali with an 89 mph 1-1 fastball, forcing home Dickerson from third and giving Tampa Bay a two-run advantage. Forsythe grounded out one pitch later, but not before the damage was done.

Alvarez stepped to the plate as the tying run with two outs in the seventh, although Enny Romero ― who entered the game in relief ― got Baltimore’s DH to pop out to first.

After Romero got the last out in the seventh, Everyday Erasmo Ramirez took over in the eighth and put together a perfect 1-1/3 innings of work, coaxing a trifecta of groundouts and a strikeout (swinging) on an 81 mph, thigh-high changeup.

Xavier Cedeno took over for Ramirez and made up for his shotty outing on Saturday by inducing a ground ball out of Chris Davis for the second out of the inning. Finally Alex Colome took over and got the final out of the game, completing the shutout. For Colome, it was his fourth save of the season.

The New What Next

Chasing .500. Rays RHP Jake Odorizzi (0-1) will go against Orioles RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (1-1) on Tuesday night. Odorizzi has a 2.56 ERA in home games since the start of the 2014 season and allowed one earned run or fewer in 19-of-32 starts over the stretch. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 4/26/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Miller SS
Longoria 3B
Dickerson DH
Jennings LF
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

― Why that particular mix of pitches for Archer?

#Rays Archer mixed in his changeup tonight, because the fastball/slider combo has not worked well vs. the O’s.

— Roger Mooney (@RMooneyTBO) April 26, 2016

Of his 10 strikeouts, PITCHf/x had 5 on sliders, 4 on changeups and 1 on his fastball — Roger Mooney (@RMooneyTBO) April 26, 2016

― The Process Report broke down Archer’s start. Check out what the writers had to say.

― From the pregame notes: since 2015, Archer is 10-1 when allowing 1 run or fewer and 3-16 when allowing 2 runs or more.

― Also from the pregame notes, Monday was Archer’s fifth career scoreless start with 10 or more strikeouts, surpassing Scott Kazmir for the club record.

― Casali became the third No. 9 hitter to drive in all of the runs in a win since 2008. The others are Nathan Karns on July 21, 2015 at PHI (solo HR, won 1-0) and SS Ben Zobrist on July 18, 2008 vs. TOR (2-run HR, won 2-1).

The New What Next: Rays 4/25/16 starting lineup, etc

Chris Archer looks to pitch through the sixth inning for the first time this season tonight against the Orioles. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Times)

Rays 4/25/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Pearce 1B
Longoria 3B
Dickerson DH
Jennings LF
Miller SS
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

― Good luck charm? Curt Casali will catch Chris Archer for the first time this season.

― As it was written elsewhere (via Marc Topkin), this validates some of confidence the Rays have maintained in the offense:

Hard-Hit Rate – Top 5 Teams
Rays 18.5%
Pirates 18.3%
Diamondbacks 17.6%
Cubs 17.4%
Orioles 16.8%

Bottom 3
ATL 8.7%
SD 10.4%
TEX 10.7%

— Mark Simon (@msimonespn) April 25, 2016

― You can read about tonight’s pitching matchup, and so much more, in our series preview.

The New What Next: Rays vs Orioles part two ― a series preview

After thumping the New York Yankees 8-1 on Sunday afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays return home to open a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles.

It was a glorious end to a less than glorious series against the Yankees. After dropping the first two games 6-3 and 3-2 respectively, the Rays’ offense woke up, plating eight runs on 12 hits including five home runs. Birthday boy Steven Souza Jr. crushed two of the five, while Corey Dickerson, Steve Pearce and Logan Forsythe each hit one apiece.

Tampa Bay, overall, has looked rather lackluster at the plate. However, when looking at things through a different set of lenses, the Rays are getting better. Even though the scoring opportunities haven’t really presented themselves, they’ve done a fairly good job of bringing runners home when they’ve had men in scoring position. Consider this: their wRISP batting averages over the last three series have been, well…better than most of last season: .222 vs the White Sox, .267 vs the Red Sox and .571 vs the Yankees. They are leaps and bounds better than a few weeks ago when the Rays last faced Baltimore, a series in which Tampa Bay hit .203 wRISP and had just two hits with runners in scoring position. I certainly wouldn’t expect the team to hit +.500 with runners in scoring position regularly, however, there is hope that they can drive in runs at a far greater clip than they had in the first three series.

We’ve been a little bit quiet here and there, but these guys can hit, manager Kevin Cash said following Sunday’s contest. Evident today.

Rays and Orioles offensive production (as of Sunday).

After starting the season on a torrid seven-game win streak, the Orioles have come down to Earth ― dropping seven of their last 11. That’s not to say they aren’t a good team; at 11-6 on the season, the O’s are the only +.500 team in the AL East. That they are second in the American League in runs (80), first in the AL in SLG (.494) and first in the AL in homers (27) proves that Baltimore indeed is a formidable opponent.

What better time than now for Chris Archer to prove that he’s a true ace, and for Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore to bounce back from a pair of starts where each hurler gave up four runs or more.

Archer (0-4, 7.32 ERA) was torched for six runs in just 4-1/3 innings of work Wednesday night. The righty is still winless on the season and has yet to pitch past the fifth inning of any game. Wednesday marked the second time in three starts that he’s given up six runs. Suffice it to say, Archer has performed well below expectation. Nevertheless he has the talent to turn things around, and he has pinpointed what he thinks may be the problem. We’ll see if the adjustments made can make a difference in the outcome on Monday.

Odorizzi (0-1, 3.97 ERA) threw four innings Thursday afternoon and allowed five runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out three. Thursday’s game marked the first time this season (four starts) that Jake did not make it into the sixth inning. Through 22-2/3 innings, Odorizzi sports an attractive 23/4 strike-to-walk ratio.

Moore (1-1, 3.60 ERA) allowed four runs on eight hits, while walking two and striking out five over 6-2/3 innings Friday night. The southpaw battled, but the Yankees kept chipping away at Moore. He, however, continues to show good control while maintaining a solid 26/5 strike-to-walk ratio.

Rays and Orioles series starters over the last 14 days.

Kevin Gausman (shoulder) is slated to start Monday. The righty cleared the final hurdle on his road back from a shoulder injury, tossing 5-2/3 innings for Triple-A Norfolk on Wednesday (91 pitches). Across three levels during his rehab assignment, Gausman collected a 19/5 strike-to-walk ratio. In 2015 he relied primarily on his four seam fastball (96 mph) that had good “rising” action, also mixing in a splitter (86 mph) that tends to result in ground balls, curve (81 mph) that generates fly-balls, and a sinker using a one-seam fastball grip (94 mph) according to Brooks Baseball. Tampa Bay has taken advantage of Gausman over the last three seasons, tagging him with a 2-3 record and a 6.16 ERA. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-3), Curt Casali (1-3), Logan Forsythe (4-5, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (4-16, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (6-18, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB)

Ubaldo Jimenez (1-1, 3.71 ERA) tossed five innings against the Blue Jays, allowing two runs, five hits and four walks while striking out six. Through three starts in 2016, Jimenez has a sub-four ERA, but a concerning 1.59 WHIP. And while he’s been nipped by a .378 BABIP, he’s managed to strand 80% of runners. More concerning though, his 2.5 strike-to-walk ratio and 89.9 mph average fastball. Jimenez is 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA over his last two starts against the Rays. Key matchup: Logan Morrison (3-3, 2 2B, 2 RBI)

Chris Tillman (1-1, 4.42 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings against Toronto. He fanned four and didn’t factor into the decision. Tillman was actually in line to lose, however, the offense bailed him out. Tillman didn’t fare well last season, and he doesn’t look much better now. That being said, he allowed just one run on four hits in five innings of work against Tampa Bay on April 8. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-4, RBI, BB), Corey Dickerson (1-2, 2B), Logan Forsythe (7-22, 2 2B, RBI, BB), Brandon Guyer (3-11), Evan Longoria (17-51, 4 2B, 7 HR, 10 RBI, 5 BB), Steven Souza Jr. (4-14, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB)

Noteworthiness

― According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), the Rays swung their way to history, the first team to hit five homers and strike out 15 or more times in a nine-inning game. It was the third time they won in regulation with 16 or more Ks, also at the White Sox on Sept. 29, 2012, and at the Red Sox on May 6, 2000.

― Manny Machado has been a nemesis to Chris Archer. Machado is 9-22 with a home run off the Rays ace, while Chris Davis is 5-14 with two homers and Jonathan Schoop 4-7 with one homer. All three homered on April 8.

― The good folks at the Process Report put together an excellent, easy to understand, recap of the Rays/Yankees series. It’s worth your time.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Snell sharp in debut; Rays fall 3-2

Chris Archer #22 of the Tampa Bay Rays greets Blake Snell #4 before the game against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on April 23, 2016 in the Bronx borough of New York City.This is Snell’s major league debut. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Blake Snell had a solid Major League debut on Saturday, yet the Tampa Bay Rays ‘pen lost the lead and the game as they fell to the Yankees, 3-2.

What follows are some highlights and low-lights from the contest in the Bronx:

― A shaky first. After collecting a pair of fly-ball outs to center and short from Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner (respectively), Snell walked Carlos Beltran on four pitches to begin a first inning rally. Beltran went to third on a Mark Teixeira single to right-center, and came home when Snell threw a wild pitch past Hank Conger. Desmond Jennings ended the frame by making a leaping catch at the wall in left, taking away an extra-base hit from Alex Rodriguez.

― From that point on Snell went into lockdown mode, retiring 12-of-the-next-13 batters, including a three strikeout second inning. The lefty collected his first Major League strikeout in the frame, catching Brian McCann looking at a perfectly placed 2-2 off-speed pitch.

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Snell got into a bit of trouble in the third after he allowed a one out single to Ellsbury, who moved to second on a pitch in the dirt that Hank Conger seemed incapable of keeping in front of him. Conger looked gun shy when he finally corralled the ball, and no attempt was made to catch Ellsbury at second. The play would have been close had he made a good throw, and there’s no certainty he would have nabbed Ellsbury, however, we’ll never know due to his pensivity. A comebacker and a fly-ball got Snell out of the jam.

(The jitters) were there. I didn’t think they were. It was more like I was really anxious, Snell said of adjusting from the first to the second. I was trying to do too much. But after that I feel like I kind of got into my groove. From what I did, you can say (I got over them). But yeah, I felt more confident. I didn’t feel as anxious out there.

― That’s not to say Snell was perfect. The lefty got into eight three-ball counts over the course of his 90 pitch outing (an average of 18 pitches per inning), making for a somewhat inefficient start. He also uncorked a pair of wild pitches and walked a batter. Still, he was able to keep the leadoff man off the bags and threw first pitch strikes to 13-0f-the-19 batters he faced.

― All told Snell allowed just one run on two hits over five innings, and left the game ahead 2-1. His pitch mix on the day: 95 mph fastball (62 thrown, 40 strikes, 7 whiffs), 83 mph changeup (6 thrown, 5 strikes), 83 mph slider (5 thrown, 0 strikes), 74 mph curveball (16 thrown, 8 strikes).

― The Rays tied the score at one in the fourth inning after Logan Morrison doubled to right-center (yes, LoMo) with one out, and advanced to third on Evan Longoria’s deep fly to right-center. Corey Dickerson followed with a double over the head of Brett Gardner in left, knotting the score at one apiece. Tampa Bay appeared to be in the makings of a big inning after Desmond Jennings walked and Brad Miller worked a full-count. Yet Miller went down swinging to end the threat.

― Tampa Bay took the when Kevin Kiermaier homered off the right-field foul pole for a one run advantage off Tanaka.

Click the photo to be redirected to video of Kiermaier's solo homer off Tanaka. (Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II) — Click the photo to be redirected to video of Kiermaier’s solo homer off Tanaka. (Photo Credit: (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

― Enny Romero took over in the seventh inning with a new battery mate; Curt Casali replaced Hank Conger. Romero walked McCann on four pitches before Starlin Castro flew to center for the first out of the frame.

Xavier Cedeno entered the game in relief and exhibited an uncharacteristic lapse in command from the start. Chase Headley walked on four pitches before after Didi Gregarious went down swinging. But with base runners on first and third, and a full count, Ellsbury reached on catcher’s interference ― a pitch that would have been strike three had contact with Casali not been made. Brett Gardner then lined an infield single off Cedeno (literally), tying the score.

― With the game knotted at two, the two-headed monster of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller took over in the final two innings. Betances retired the side for the second straight day in the eighth, and Miller threw a scoreless ninth…although he did allow a base hit to Steve Pearce.

― Erasmo Ramirez entered with the bases loaded in the seventh and got Carlos Beltran to ground out. Ramirez worked around a pair of two-out singles in the eighth for another scoreless inning, and got the first two outs in the ninth on three pitches. Yet the typically dependable Ramirez fell behind 3-1 on Gardner before leaving an errant pitch over the plate. The outfielder capitalized, homering into the upper deck in right for the walk-off win.

The New What Next

Drew Smyly and the Tampa Bay Rays will try to steal a game from the Yankees in the series finale Sunday afternoon. The left-handed Smyly will pitch opposite of Michael Pineda. Drew is Smyly is 0-2, but he’s collected a 0.65 WHIP ― good for the second-best mark in the Majors, ahead of Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.82 ERA in six appearances against New York. He’s allowed just five earned runs in 24-2/3 innings, but all five of the runs have come via the long ball (three solo shots and a two-run homer). Pineda, who is 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA, is struggling to prevent contact. The righty is allowing an ugly 10.59 hits per nine innings, and his 1.41 WHIP is more than double his counterpart’s. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 4/24/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe DH
Morrison 1B
Longoria 3B
Dickerson LF
Pearce 2B
Miller SS
Souza RF
Kiermaier CF
Casali C
Smyly LHP

Noteworthiness

― The Rays have optioned Snell back to Triple-A Durham, and will select RHP Jhan Mariñez from the Bulls.

― Brian McCann on Snell:

I was impressed; good arm, live heater, and you don’t see many curveballs like that. He’s got a bright future.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Ellsbury, McCann lead Yanks to 6-3 victory over the Rays

Logan Forsythe swings for a two-run double in the second inning to give the Rays a 2-0 lead, but they give it back quickly. (Photo Credit: Associated Press)

Blame their inability to push across crucial runs in the early goings, or critical gaffes committed by the Tampa Bay Rays, which allowed New York to take the lead, the Yankees snapped their three-game skid in a 6-3 victory in the Bronx Friday night.

Source: FanGraphs

Things started well for Tampa Bay, and the Rays were able to take an early lead in the second inning.

After Matt Moore shut down the Yankees on four pitches in the bottom of the first, Steve Pearce worked a one out walk against the swarthy CC Sabathia in the top of the following frame. Steven Souza Jr. came up with a single to left, while Tim Beckham worked the second free pass of the inning, loading the bases for Curt Casali. Yet, per usual, Casali went down swinging when he tried to put an off-speed pitch (that sat well below the zone) into play, leaving things up to the dependable Logan Forsythe to take advantage of the Grimmace-like hurler.

Forsythe did not disappoint. He hit an 89 mph fastball, on the inside corner, down the left-field line for a two-run double. However, with runner in scoring position and two outs, Brandon Guyer left some chicken on the bone, grounding out to second to end the threat.

Meanwhile the Yankees quickly answered against Moore after Mark Teixeira hit a leadoff single to left. Two batters later, Brian McCann homered to the short porch in right-center to tie the score.

Nevertheless Tampa Bay moved in front once more after mounting a fourth inning, two-out rally. Forsythe reached down and golf clubbed a nasty breaking pitch over the head of Aaron Hicks and to the wall in left-center for his second double of the day. Guyer, who has never had much success against Sabathia, looped an RBI single to left-center, snapping a personal 1-22 stretch against the lefty.

Be that as it may, the Yankees rallied once again to even the score in the bottom of the frame. Jacoby Ellsbury, who entered the game for the injured Hicks, started the key rally with a single to left. After Didi Gregorius singled to right, both runners were balked into scoring position. The balk also stole from Moore’s focus, which proved costly just one batter later.

As Moore delivered ball four on a 3-2 pitch to Brett Gardner, Ellsbury broke for the plate, scoring just ahead of Curt Casali’s tag on a straight steal of home ― tying the score at three.

I’m not sure if I actually saw it or felt it, Moore said. I could hear different things — ‘Step off, hurry up.’ It was some time about when my hands were over my head I tried to shorten everything up to get it there. If it was just a foot lower, Curt doesn’t have to reach as high and go back down.

Ellsbury took advantage of two things on the play. First Moore, pitching with his back to third, never checked on Ellsbury. Second, the lefty opted to go with a high leg-kick, as opposed to pitching from the stretch. Casali, sensing that something was amiss, attempted to call time before the pitch was thrown, however, it was not granted. Moore tried to adjust mid-windup, but instead threw a high fastball — making it more difficult for the Rays’ catcher to tag Ellsbury out at the plate on the ensuing play.

It was definitely a risky play on their part and if I would have executed a little bit better then we would have had an out right there, said Moore.

Moore spoke to why he opted for the high leg kick in the first place,

There’s a reason that starting pitchers go into the windup when nobody is on base. You set your rhythm; you’re a little bit more comfortable there. It’s just one of those things where I didn’t think they were going to put their scoring opportunity at risk with, especially, their center fielder. Tip the cap to him for being able to execute and take advantage of it.

It was the first steal of home by a Yankee since Derek Jeter did so in 2001, and the first time in their 2,930-game history the Rays allowed a straight steal of home.

New York took the go-ahead lead the very next inning. Carlos Beltran reached on a well struck base-hit to center, and Mark Teixeira followed with a hard hit single off the left-field wall that was within a foot of being a two-run homer. Thankfully the ball caromed perfectly right to Desmond Jennings, who was able to hold the runners at first and second…not that it mattered. Two batters later, McCann, who has terrorized the Rays (15 RBI in 17 games against the Rays in 2015), singled to left — scoring Beltran for their first lead of the night.

They added two more in the eighth, at which point it was already to late for the Rays. Why, you may be asking? The lead stood because the Yankees bullpen was perfect after Sabathia was lifted after 4-2/3 innings of work, much to his chagrin. Ivan Nova thew 2-1/3 hitless innings, and then handed the ball to the two-headed monster of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller.

All told, the Rays stranded nine total runners over the front five innings, thanks in part to eight of the nine hits collected against Sabathia coming with two outs.

The New What Next

The Rays No. 1 prospect Blake Snell will make his major league debut Saturday, opposite of Masahiro Tanaka. Snell is 1-1 with a 2.51 ERA in three starts with Triple-A Durham. The lefty has fanned 21 in just 14-1/2 innings while scattering 15 hits and seven walks (a 3/1 K/BB). The lefty put together an incredible season where he led the minor leagues in ERA (1.41) and opponents batting average (.182), posted a ridiculous 31.3% K%, and ranked among the overall leaders with 15 wins (third) and 163 strikeouts (fourth). He becomes just the ninth pitcher in 35 years to claim the honor of Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year. You can read about Tanaka in our series preview.

Rays 4/23/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe 2B
Morrison 1B
Longoria DH
Dickerson RF
Jennings LF
Miller SS
Pearce 3B
Kiermaier CF
Conger C
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— To make room for Snell on the 25-man active roster, Tampa Bay optioned reliever Danny Farquhar to Durham. Farquhar posted a 3.38 ERA in six appearances this season and allowed seven hits while striking out five.

Farquhar is expected to pitch “more meaningful innings” with Durham, while Cash wants him to get in “some consistent work.”