The New What Next: Rays vs Red Sox — yet ANOTHER series preview

17,685 attended the series finale between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)
17,685 attended the series finale between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their current 10-game home stand with a four-game series against AL East rivals, the Boston Red Sox, starting Monday.

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Led by one of the hottest pitching staffs in baseball since the All-Star Break, Tampa Bay took two of three from the AL West leading Texas Rangers over the weekend. Chris Archer (Tuesdays starter) is coming off of one of his best starts of the season, while Jake Odorizzi (Thursday’s starter) is 5-0 since the All-Star Break.

Drew Smyly got the start in the series finale, and though he left two mistake pitches up in the zone, bot of which were hammered by Texas’ hitters, he is now  4-0 in his last six starts.

We’re very capable of winning, said Smyly, who will not make an appearance in the upcoming series. Texas is a first-place team, they’ve been in first place all year. It’s just consistency.

In that series, the Rays showed something they hadn’t all season: the ability to string together wins after posting a losing effort.

It just seemed like for a while we would win two or three and then turn around and lose five or six in a row and we struggled with those comeback games, Rays skipper Kevin Cash said. But if you look at the Texas series and the way we started it and turned things around quickly to finish strong. That’s what I want to see from this team.

Boston split their weekend four-game set with the Tigers, including a disappointing 10-5 loss in the series finale (editor’s note: you won’t hear me crying). Overall, the Rays are 4-5 against the Massholes this season, with a -1 run differential. That is, in spite of some sloppy play earlier in the season on the part of the good guys, both teams have played one another fairly close.

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Over the next four days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (4-5, 3.06 ERA), Archer (7-17, 4.05 ERA), Matt Andriese (6-5, 3.66 ERA), and Odorizzi (8-5, 3.63 ERA). John Farrell will counter with David Price (11-8, 4.19 ERA), Clay Buchholz (4-9, 5.42 ERA), Rick Porcello (17-3, 3.22 ERA), and Drew Pomeranz (10-9, 2.95 ERA).

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Rays Series Starters

Snell allowed one run on five hits and four walks over five innings in Tuesday’s 15-1 win over the Padres. He struck out eight. Although he was inefficient yet again — needing 95 pitches to make it through five frames, while walking four for the second consecutive start — the southpaw was given help by his team’s offensive explosion. His fantastic 13.50 K/9 over the last 14 days is offset by a 10.8 BB/9 over the same stretch, significantly damaging Snell’s ability to make hitters swing swing through pitches.

Archer hurled 7-1/3 shutout innings against the Padres on Wednesday, allowing just four hits, while striking out nine and walking one. The righty threw 70 of his 107 pitches for strikes, and induced a whopping 20 swings and misses. Archer now has now fanned 18 and walked just one over his last 13-1/3 frames, while also notching nine strikeouts on August 12 (although he allowed five runs).

Andriese surrendered five earned runs on seven hits and two walks over 5-1/3 innings in a 6-2 loss on Friday. He struck out four. In all fairness, he wasn’t as bad as the final line might indicate, although he did give up some untimely hits. 66 of Andriese’s 95 pitches went for strikes, including 12 whiffs, however, the two homers surrendered were enough to sink his battleship. The righty has endured consecutive rough starts, while allowing 11 earned runs on 15 hits (including six homers) over 10-1/3 innings work.

Odorizzi allowed just one earned run on six hits and a walk over six innings in an 8-2 victory over the Rangers. He struck out four. Of his total 101 pitches, 65 went for strikes, with his only mistake being a solo shot to Roughned Odor. Odorizzi has been very good over his last seven starts, posting six quality starts over that stretch.

Red Sox Series Starters

Price gave up one run on four hits over six innings on Wednesday night. He struck out four. The former Ray finally put together a solid start in which he allowed just two base hits after a second-inning homer. And while he didn’t blow the opposition away, Baltimore managed mostly weak contact and never generated much of a threat — they had only one at-bat with a man in scoring position. Price posted eight scoreless innings against Tampa Bay in July, however, the Rays have tagged their former ace with a 6.00 ERA in three starts this season. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (1-3), Logan Forsythe (5-17, 2B, RBI, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (2-5, 2B, HR, RBI, BB), Steven Souza Jr. (2-8, 2B, RBI), Bobby Wilson (2-2, 2B, 2 RBI)

Buchholz was slotted back into the rotation in place of Steven Wright on Tuesday. His spot in the rotation depended on Wright’s status, so Tuesday’s start could be the last for him if he doesn’t do well, and/or pending the return of Eduardo Rodriguez. Buchholz’s overall numbers this season aren’t impressive (5.42 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), though he maintains an 8-7 record with a 2.63 ERA against Tampa Bay over his career. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (3-7, 2B, RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (5-12, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI)

Porcello notched up his 17th win of the season on Friday, allowing just two runs (one earned) on four hits and two walks in a win over Detroit. He struck out eight. The righty hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any game since the middle of June, and has won 11 of his last 12. Porcello posted six innings of one run ball against Tampa Bay in his last start on July 9th. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (3-10, 2 2B, HR, RBI), Matt Duffy (1-3), Logan Forsythe (6-20, 3B, 2 BB), Kevin Kiermaier (5-20, 2B, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (9-36, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Luke Maile (1-1, 2B), Brad Miller (3-11, 3 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Logan Morrison (6-16, 2B, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (6-18)

Pomeranz allowed one run on four hits over five innings Saturday against Detroit. He struck out three. The one run he allowed came on a James McCann solo shot, though a long rain delay knocked Pomeranz out of the game in the bottom of the fifth. He had thrown only 51 pitches over the first five innings, and now is 10-9 overall this season. He also has an impressive 2.95 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 140-1/3 innings this season. Pomeranz relies upon an 80 mph, worm-killer knuckle curveball and a whiffy 92 mph four-seam fastball. He’ll also mix in an 87 mph cutter and a hard 87 mph changeup. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (2-8, BB), Brad Miller (2-5, HR, RBI)

Noteworthiness

— Tampa Bay continues its ascension back to .500 as one of the unluckiest teams in baseball; 63-59 BaseRuns record, 59-63 Pythagorean Expectation, 52-70 actual record.

— Logan Forsythe, who sat out four games with a back injury, returned on Sunday and homered for the third time in as many starts.

— Sandy Leon recorded multiple hits in six of his last nine starts and is batting .386.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays take second game of series vs. Rangers, 8-2

Brad Miller hit his 19th homer at home, tying Mike Napoli and Mark Trumbo for the AL most. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays broke the game open with a four-run seventh inning on Saturday, en route to an 8-2 win over the Texas Rangers. Tampa Bay has split the first two games of the series against the number one team in the American League West, and has won five of six.


Source: FanGraphs

Tampa Bay built an early two-run lead against starter A.J. Griffin. In the first inning, Corey Dickerson hit a one-out, ground-rule double up the right field line, then came around to score on Evan Longoria’s single to left-center. With two outs in the second, Luke Maile blasted a solo homer to deep left field, his first big league home run.

As it turns, a fan named Luke caught Maile’s homer. In the end, the pair of “Lukes” traded the home run ball for a game used bat.

The Rangers struck back in the fourth inning after Jake Odorizzi left a 1-2 hanger up in the zone to Rougned Odor, who knocked it out to left field.

Odorizzi received some help from his defense in the sixth inning, helping to maintain what was then a one-run lead. With two outs and Adrian Beltre at first, Jonathan Lucroy hit a liner to right-center that Steven Souza Jr. made a diving attempt on. The ball deflected off his glove, but toward Mikie Mahtook, who fired a strike to the cutoff man, Tim Beckham. T-Bex made a perfect relay throw to Maile at the plate, cutting down Beltre — who also never even touched the plate on his slide. And while the Rangers third baseman was originally ruled safe, the call was overturned upon replay, keeping Tampa Bay up by a run.

Thankfully Longoria was able to pad the Rays lead in the bottom of the sixth when he blasted his 28th homer of the season to left, also setting the stage for the seventh inning outburst.

Odorizzi departed the game before the seventh inning after hurling six innings of 6 H/1 R/1 BB/4 K baseball on 101 pitches (65 strikes), giving way to Xavier Cedeno. The X-Man, as Orestes Destrade calls him, got through a scoreless frame, stranding Elvis Andrus on third to maintain the lead.

The good guys immediately rallied in the bottom of the frame, and it all started with Beckham’s leadoff triple to the right-center gap against reliever Keone Kela. Souza followed with an RBI single to right-center, making it a 4-1 contest. Maile then laid down a beautiful bunt, and Mitch Moreland’s indecision and subsequent throw to second (in an attempt to nab Souza) was late, putting two on with nobody out. Kela got the next two batters including Mahtook, who made a perplexing decision which Hatfield (DRaysBay) wrote about in his game recap:

What happened next still has me completely perplexed. With two on and no outs, Mikie Mahtook looked to make it back to back sacrifice bunts. He showed bunt very early every pitch, in the middle of Kela’s windup, erasing any doubt. Eventually Mikie ended up with two strikes on him, clearly ending the bunt show. Only it didn’t end the bunt show. Mikie continued to show bunt early, for several pitches with two strikes. He eventually fouled one off, resulting in a foul bunt strikeout and walking back to the dugout to a chorus of boos. I mean… what on earth was happening there? Did Mikie take it upon himself to continue the bunt attempt with two strikes pitch after pitch? Or was this Kevin Cash’s genius idea? Either way, I learned not to do that when I was about eight years old. I’m not a fan of the sac bunt, period, and I’m even less of a fan of it when it happens at such a silly and ill-advised time.

After the failed bunt attempt, Longoria walked to load the bases just before Miller cleared them on a three-run double into the right-field corner.

Tampa Bay added another run in the eighth inning when Beckham hit his second triple of the night into right-center, and scored on an bloop double to right by Souza.

Texas outfielder Nomar Mazara homered for the final run of the game against Kevin Jepsen with two outs in the ninth. The homer was reviewed, as it appeared a fan reached over the railing to make the catch, however, the call was upheld.

All in all, Tampa Bay collected 12 hits: three from Matt “Baby Zobrist” Duffy, and two apiece from Longoria, Souza and Beckham.

The New What Next

LHP Drew Smyly (5-11, 4.85 ERA) will get the start opposite of fellow Martin Perez (8-8, 4.09 ERA) in the series finale. Smyly is coming off strong outing against the Padres, allowing just one hit over seven-plus innings. He’s now made five consecutive starts in which he’s allowed two runs or fewer over six-plus innings. Smyly is 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA in those starts, and 2-2 with a 3.25 ERA in 10 games against the Rangers. Perez is 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA over his past four starts, and has induced a big league most 33 ground-ball double plays. He’s also held lefties to .170 average and a .516 OPS. Perez, however, is 0-1 with a 3.86 in three games versus Tampa Bay. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/21/16 Starting Lineup

Forsythe DH
Duffy SS
Longoria 3B
Miller 1B
Beckham 2B
Souza RF
Dickerson LF
Mahtook CF
Wilson C
Smyly LHP

Noteworthiness

— The Rays enter the day with a 62-59 BaseRuns record and 59-62 Pythagorean Expectation. Compare that to the Yankees and Rangers, who enter the day with a 58-64 and 61-63 BaseRuns record (respectively). I’d argue the Rays are at least as good as those two ball clubs.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: sloppy defense leads to Rays 6-2 loss to the Rangers

Steven Souza Jr. owns the longest homer of the year at the Trop — 459 feet, trailing Evan Longoria (462' at Coors Field) for the longest of the season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
Steven Souza Jr. owns the longest homer of the year at the Trop — 459 feet, trailing Evan Longoria (462′ at Coors Field) for the longest of the season. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
The Texas Rangers snapped the Rays’ four-game win streak on Friday night, beating Tampa Bay 6-2 at Tropicana Field.

Matt Andriese worked around a handful of early situations in the second, third and fourth innings, stranding runners in scoring position in the second and third.

However, the Rangers broke the 0-0 deadlock in the fifth inning with Mitch Moreland’s opposite field homer (21) to start the frame. Then with one out, Elvis Andrus walked and eventually scored all the way from first on Ian Desmond’s single to center. The play was exacerbated by Mikie Mahtook, who lobbed the ball into second assuming Andrus was going to stop at third. He didn’t, however, and Andrus beat a high relay throw to the plate from Tim Beckham.

Mahtook slotted into center field when Kevin Kiermaier left the ballgame after one at-bat with left hip tightness, while Beckham was at second base for Logan Forsythe, who missed a third straight game with back spasms.

Mahtook took full responsibility for the gaffe, saying,

We had a few lapses and defensive miscues. It’s not the type of team we are. The play in center field was all on me. It was one of those things where he just, he got me. … He baited me into it. I lobbed it to Beckham at second, and he took the extra base. That won’t ever happen again. That’s not a good feeling to have that happen to you.

But Mikie wasn’t the only Ray who had a hard time in the field Friday night, and the sloppy defense cost the team runs. In the sixth inning, after Adrian Beltre homered to center off Matt Andriese, Beckham allowed the lead runner (Nomar Mazara) to reach second base instead of throwing there to get the easy force. At another point in the game, three defenders converged on a ball that was the second baseman’s.

Rays skipper Kevin Cash was made upset by the sloppy effort. “We got out-pitched. We got out-hit, out-defended,” Cash said. “They didn’t make any mental mistakes. We made a handful. Pretty disappointing effort.”

On the other side of the coin, Rangers starter Cole Hamels surrendered just two hits over the first seven innings, and didn’t allow a hit until the sixth when Corey Dickerson hit a two-out single. Steven Souza Jr. ended the chance of a shutout when he blasted a 459 foot to start the eighth, and Evan Longoria drove home the second run of the inning with a base hit to center off RHP Tony Barnette.

The New What Next

RHP Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA) will toe the rubber for Tampa Bay Saturday night, opposite of RHP A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.09 ERA). Odorizzi leads all American League pitchers (minimum 25 innings) with a 1.66 ERA since the All-Star Break. He is 4-0 in six starts since the unofficial start of the second half of the season. Griffin has a 6.69 ERA in his last seven starts, yet the Rangers have won four of his last five turns. He’s held right-handed batters to a .201 batting average this season. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 8/20/16 Starting lineup

Mahtook CF
Dickerson LF
Longoria 3B
Miller 1B
Duffy SS
Morrison DH
Beckham 2B
Souza RF
Maile C
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

— Nick Franklin departed the ballgame after the fifth inning due to dizziness. He will be placed on the seven-day concussion disabled list, and the Rays corresponded by recalling INF Richie Shaffer.

Franklin was hit on the head during the first inning Wednesday afternoon when Kevin Kiermaier swung a bat on the on-deck circle. He left that game, but passed a concussion test and felt fine prior to Friday.

All that changed after he ran out a fly ball in the fourth inning.

I had cotton mouth when I went out to left (field), Franklin said. I felt like I could pass out there. It was a really weird feeling. Hopefully it goes away and I’m back to normal.

— Oswaldo Arcia, who was reinstated from the DL on Friday, has been designated for assignment. Arcia was claimed off waivers by Tampa Bay in the middle of June, but spent 20 days on the DL with a right elbow strain. The outfielder is out of options, and — unfortunately for him — there was no room left on the 25-man roster. The team reportedly would like to sign him to a minor-league deal if he clears waivers. Should that happen, Arcia could rejoin the team in September when the rosters expand.

— Tampa Bay made another roster move, activating LHP Enny Romero from the DL, and optioning RHP Ryan Garton to Triple-A Durham.

Important information regarding tonight’s Baseball Forever event at the Trop

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Via a City of St. Petersburg press release:

Thank you, thank you!

Thank you for your support throughout this entire campaign. We could not have done this without you and look forward to seeing everyone TONIGHT!

Please tell your friends and family there is STILL TIME to purchase tickets to Baseball Forever Night – the game starts at 7:10 p.m.

Ticket Information:

With each lower level individual ticket sold ($25), you’ll receive a free Rays baseball cap. Upper level tickets are $10 each. Tickets are available online at www.raysbaseball.com/baseballforever

OR purchase a group of tickets (10 or more) by emailing: jgallo@raysbaseball.com.

Important Information In Case You Missed It

ALL Baseball Forever Ticket Holders:

When you arrive, please pick up your Baseball Forever spirit fan inside the Rotunda at Gate 1. Be sure and save your cheering voices for when the Rays welcome the Baseball Forever group to the stands and thank us for our support. Get up from your seat, wave your spirit fan and SHOW the team you want them to stay. The time is NOW!

Lower Level ($25) Ticket Holders:

Each $25 ticket includes a free hat. The hats are going to be distributed the Redemption Center, located at Gate 3 near the Guest Services table – next to the 1st base Food Court. Each Baseball Forever ticket has a code on it for the hat. At the redemption center, you will need to show your ticket, it will then be stamped by the fan host in exchange for a hat.

The New What Next: Rays vs Rangers — a series preview

On Wednesday, Evan Longoria became the Rays leader with 1,236 games played, surpassing Carl Crawford. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)
On Wednesday, Evan Longoria became the Rays leader with 1,236 games played, surpassing Carl Crawford. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays continue their 10-game home stand on Friday, with the first game of a three game set against the AL West leading Texas Rangers.

The Rays enter the series with a lot of momentum after winning four straight, and scoring a franchise-record 35 runs over a three-game span to finish a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres. The Rangers, likewise, are coming off their own three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics, and have won nine of 12 entering the series.

Brad Miller has been a big part of Tampa Bay’s win streak, mashing three home runs in his last seven at-bats. The first baseman has hit 19 homers since June 17, matching the most in baseball in that span. He’s also been productive at home where 19 of his 25 home runs have been hit. Miller already set the Major League record for the most long-balls by a left-handed batter playing primarily at shortstop, as well as the franchise record for homers by a shortstop.

I think I’m picking the right pitch to swing at, Miller said after Wednesday’s contest with San Diego. When you do that, you can’t miss them, because you might only get one per at-bat. That’s all I’m trying to do is hit the one pitch I get per at-bat.

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While their 72-50 record sets the Rangers apart from the lowly Rays, when you dig a little deeper, you’ll come to the the conclusion that both teams are pretty evenly keeled — luck is one of the separating factors between the two. Compare their Pythagorean Expectations, for example. Texas should be 62-60, while Tampa Bay should be 57-62. And with a 61-58 BaseRuns record, the Rays are actually outperforming their counterparts by four games in the loss column (60-62). To put it another way, this season Tampa Bay has scored the same number of runs as the Yankees (498), and have allowed 18 fewer runs. However, the good guys are 10-½ games behind New York in the AL East and 19 games under .500, while the Yankees are two games over .500 and 7-½ back of first.

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Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will depend upon starters Matt Andriese (6-4, 3.36 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (7-5, 3.72 ERA), and Drew Smyly (5-11, 4.85 ERA). Jeff Banister will counter with Cole Hamels (12-4, 2.88 ERA), A.J. Griffin (5-2, 4.68 ERA), and Martín Pérez (8-8, 4.09 ERA).

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Rays Series Starters

Andriese fanned eight but surrendered six earned runs on eight hits over five innings of an 8-4 loss on Saturday. The righty allowed four homers in one game after having allowed just three all season. He, however, also recorded a season high in strikeouts and fired 56 of 76 pitches for strikes (13 whiffs overall).

Odorizzi has been fire since the All-Star Break. In his six starts since, the righty is 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA. He is 2-0 with a 1.37 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.

Smyly dominated the Padres on Monday, allowing just one run over seven innings. He gave up only one hit, walked a pair, and struck out four. Smyly allowed a one out, first-inning homer to Alexei Ramirez and then held San Diego hitless for the next six. Even though Smyly’s had his share of misfortune this season, he has allowed just eight total runs in his last five starts.

Rangers Series Starters

Hamels allowed two runs on six hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings on Monday against the Rockies. The tough lefty did enough to keep Texas in the game, and the Rangers eventually won late. Hamels coaxed 20 swinging strikes on 115 pitches, although he wasn’t the most efficient hurler, throwing just 12-of-24 first-pitch strikes. Still, Hamels hasn’t allowed more than three runs since July 8 against the Twins — a five start stretch, allowing him to drop his ERA from 3.21 to 2.89. Key matchups: Matt Duffy (3-6, 3 RBI), Logan Forsythe (2-3, 2 2B, RBI), Logan Morrison (11-28, 4 2B, 2 RBI, 5 BB)

Griffin posted at least six innings for the first time in his last 11 starts against Detroit on Sunday, although he was tagged for six runs and a season-high 11 hits. He now has a 6.69 ERA in his last seven starts, allowing a homer in 10 straight outings. Griffin has relied upon an 89 mph four seam fastball with good “rising action,” and an 84 mph cutter this season, while also mixing in a 67 mph curveball with excellent bite, and an 82 mph changeup with a ton of backspin. Key matchups: Nick Franklin (1-3, 2B), Brad Miller (1-3, HR, RBI)

Pérez held Oakland to two runs (one earned) on five hits on Monday, with one walk and six strikeouts over seven innings. The southpaw settled in after allowing a run in each of the first two innings, and was rewarded with his first win in nine starts. Be that as it may, he still has just one road win in 2016; something that may bode well for the Rays. This season he has relied primarily on a 94 mph worm killer of a sinker, while also mixing in a 94 mph four seam fastball, a hard 85 mph circle change grip, an 86 mph slider, and an 81 mph 12-6 curveball. Key matchups: Tim Beckham (1-2, BB), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Evan Longoria (4-7, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Brad Miller (4-10, 2B, RBI, 2 BB)

Noteworthiness

— Brad Miller is 8-20 with five homers and nine RBI in his last five games.

— Carlos Beltran is hitting .315 with two home runs and eight RBI in 15 games since being traded from the New York Yankees; he went 6-13 in the series with Oakland.

— The teams have not played one another in 2016, and will finish the season with a three-game set in Texas. They’ve split 40 meetings since 2011.