After dropping two of three in Boston, the Tampa Bay Rays will cap a five-game, six-day road trip in Miami, when they start a two-game series against the Marlins, on Tuesday. Miami dropped three of four in its series against the Dodgers.
At 70-57 on the season, the Rays enter play 13 games above .500 and with an 85.3% chance of a playoff berth per FanGraphs (78.0% chance per Baseball-Reference).
Despite the series loss, Tampa Bay has been on a roll over the past couple of weeks, winning seven of their last 10 games. With the Yankees faltering since the All-Star Break, their once insurmountable lead atop the division has been reduced to 7.5 games, giving the Rays a shot at catching up to them.
The Rays are averaging 4.26 runs per game overall (4.31 RPG on the road), yet that run average is a robust 6.57 runs per game over the last week. Isaac Paredes, who hit two homers on Sunday (and leads the team with 18 home runs), went off last week, going 6-for-17 with four homers and a 307 wRC+. Meanwhile, patient Randy Arozarena posted a 261 wRC+ over the same stretch on the back of 11 hits including five doubles and a homer. Overall, Tampa Bay put up a 135 wRC+ against the Red Sox and Angels.
On the other hand, the Marlins aren’t playing well at the moment as they’ve lost four of the last five contests. Miami is averaging 3.65 runs per game, although the RPG average plummeted to 2.71 over the last seven days. Over that stretch, they’ve put up a 62 wRC+ with an ice-cold -10.2 wRAA.
Despite a few bumps in the road, the Rays’ pitching staff has been strong in August, putting up a combined 2.97 ERA and a 2.97 FIP (3.11 xFIP). The starting rotation has been fantastic, performing to a 2.79 ERA and a 2.88 FIP, with an 8.86 K/9, while the relief corps has also been strong, putting up a 3.21 ERA and a 3.09 FIP. Miami’s pitching staff has also been good in August, putting up a combined 3.69 ERA and 3.66 FIP (3.85 xFIP), which breaks down to a 3.26 ERA and a 3.47 FIP by the starters, but a 4.46 ERA and a 3.99 FIP (4.18 xFIP) by the relievers.
The Rays are 2-0 against the Marlins this season.
Pitching Probables
Over the next two days, Kevin Cash will lean on Shane McClanahan (11-5, 2.20 ERA), and Drew Rasmussen (9-4, 2.77 ERA). Don Mattingly will counter with Jesús Luzardo (3-5, 3.34 ERA), and a pitcher to be named before the series finale.
Shane McClanahan continued to bounce back from a pair of bad starts by not allowing a run on four hits and one walk over six innings with nine strikeouts against the Angels on Wednesday. The southpaw returned to form Wednesday, firing his first scoreless start in 12 turns dating back to June 9 and the most strikeouts in a game since July 2. He was in command all night, throwing 62 of 90 pitches for strikes (69% strike rate) and allowing just five runners. All told, McClanahan owns a 2.20 ERA and a 2.65 FIP, with a 6.07 K/BB, and a 0.86 WHIP across 147.1 innings. He blanked the Marlins across 6.0 innings previously, scattering four hits and two walks while striking out nine.
Jesús Luzardo gave up two runs on three hits and two walks over seven innings against the Athletics. He struck out four. While he wasn’t at his most dominant, Luzardo did take a no-hitter into the sixth inning before Jonah Bride broke it up with a leadoff single. The southpaw tossed 66 of 102 pitches for strikes (65% strike rate) en route to his second consecutive quality start and fifth in 11 trips to the mound this season. Luzardo owns a 3.34 ERA and a 3.06 FIP, with a 3.00 K/BB through 59.1 innings. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA in one career start against Tampa Bay. Luzardo relies primarily on an 84 mph 12-6 slider that has some two-plane movement, a 97 mph four-seam fastball that has some natural sinking action, and an 87 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, while also mixing in a 96 mph sinker.
Drew Rasmussen allowed one earned run on six hits and one walk while striking out nine across 5.1 innings on Thursday against the Angels. Rasmussen allowed only a solo home run to Taylor Ward and tallied a win in his third consecutive turn. He has allowed only four earned runs across 19.1 innings in that span while also maintaining a 12.0 K/BB. Overall, he maintains a 2.77 ERA and a 3.21 FIP, and a 1.07 WHIP across 110.2 frames. Rasmussen is 1-0 against the Marlins this season, having allowed three runs on six hits (including a home run) and two walks across five innings.