After taking two of three from the Yankees, and apparently breaking every fan donning a NY hat along the way, the Tampa Bay Rays head to Miami, where they will start a brief, two-game set against the Marlins on Tuesday. The Marlins most recently dropped two of three to the Nationals.
At 80-52 on the season, the Rays enter play 28 games above .500 with 30 left to play. Meanwhile, the Marlins enter play one game over .500 and 2.5 games back in the NL Wildcard chase.
Tampa Bay has won eight of the last ten contests, keeping within 2.5 games of the Orioles. It’s one of only four teams with 80 wins on the season. Thanks to a 15-8 month of August — in which the team slashed a combined .282 BA/.348 OBP/.449 SLG/.797 SLG line with a 125 wRC+ — the Rays have all but rinsed the bitter taste of a shitty month of July out of their mouths. They are one game shy of matching the high-water mark of 29 games over .500, and are primed to pounce should the Orioles falter.
And while Tampa Bay has started to come back to earth (as compared to the last couple of weeks) offensively speaking, they still put up 12 runs on the Yankees, thanks in part to a .304 wRISP batting average over the life of that series, and are slashing an above average .275 BA/.345 OBP/.445 SLG/.790 OPS over the last seven days, with a 123 wRC+ and a 4.5 wRAA.
The Marlins have won just six of their last 15 games, and three of their last seven, as they cling to the slimmest of hopes for their second postseason berth in four years. Over the last week, Miami has put up an ice-cold 64 wRC+ thanks to a combined .210 BA/.269 OBP/.333 SLG/.632 OPS slash line. They are averaging under two runs per game over that stretch, which is about 2.5 fewer runs, per game, than their season average of 4.02.
The Rays enter play with an overall 3.87 ERA and 3.89 FIP (3.77 ERA and 3.59 FIP for the starters, 3.99 ERA, and 4.23 FIP for the relievers). Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay has put up an improved 3.60 ERA and 3.56 FIP (3.86 ERA and 4.16 FIP for the starters, and a 3.28 ERA and a 2.83 FIP for the relievers).
Meanwhile, Miami’s pitching staff has performed to an overall 4.15 ERA and 4.05 FIP (4.19 ERA and 4.14 FIP for the starters, 4.09 ERA, and 3.93 FIP for the relievers). The pitching staff has been the only bright spot the last seven days, pitching to a combined 2.66 ERA and a 2.89 FIP (2.45 ERA and a 3.35 FIP for the starters, 2.95 ERA and a 2.44 FIP for the relievers).
The Rays are 1-1 against the Marlins this season with a -3 run differential.
Pitching Probables
Over the next couple of days, Kevin Cash will call on Aaron Civale (6-3, 2.59 ERA, 3.30 FIP) and Zach Eflin (13-8, 3.55 ERA, 3.13 FIP). Skip Schumaker will counter with Sandy Alcantara (6-11, 4.16 ERA, 4.03 FIP) and Jesús Luzardo (9-8, 3.77 ERA, 3.83 FIP).
Aaron Civale gave up three runs on four hits over five-plus innings against the Yankees. He struck out nine without walking a batter. It was Civale’s most dominant performance since joining the Rays at the deadline, as he generated an eye-popping 35 called or swinging strikes on only 80 pitches. Civale has a 3.54 ERA and a 2.39 FIP, with a 1.33 WHIP, and a 10.00 K/BB through 20.1 innings in August.
Sandy Alcantara gave up four runs on seven hits and three walks over 6.2 innings as the Marlins against the Padres. He struck out three. Last season’s NL Cy Young Award winner didn’t have his best stuff, managing only eight whiffs on 105 pitches. The right-hander sports a 4.16 ERA and a 4.03 FIP in the second half, with a 1.19 WHIP and 3.27 K/BB. Alcantara allowed just one run on five scattered hits and a walk in a complete game start against the Rays in July. Key Matchups: Brandon Lowe (5-12, 3 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Josh Lowe (1-3, 2B), Luke Raley (1-3, BB), Harold Ramírez (1-3), José Siri (1-3)
Zach Eflin took a hard-luck loss Friday, allowing two runs on seven hits and a walk over six frames versus the Yankees. He struck out 11. Eflin matched counterpart Gerrit Cole with a season-high 11 punchouts, but he exited with Tampa Bay down a run. It was the right-hander’s second double-digit strikeout game of the season after he fanned 10 Pirates back in early May. All told, Eflin boasts a 3.55 ERA and a 3.13 FIP, with a 1.04 WHIP, and a 7.35 K/BB on the season.
Jesús Luzardo allowed two hits and a walk while striking out seven over six shutout innings on Tuesday against the Padres. Luzardo was locked in, a significant departure from his last four starts in which he allowed a combined 21 runs (20 earned) over just 17 innings. This was his fifth scoreless start of the season and his first since July 4. He’s now at a 3.77 ERA and a 3.86 FIP, with a 1.26 WHIP, and a 3.98 K/BB through 143.1 innings over 26 starts. Luzardo relies primarily on a 97 mph fourseam fastball that has some natural sinking action and slight arm-side run, a whiffy 85 mph 12-6 slider, and a hard 88 mph changeup that has slight arm-side fade and some natural sink to it, while also mixing in a whiffy 97 mph sinker. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (1-4, BB), Yandy Díaz (3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI), Harold Ramírez (1-3, RBI), José Siri (2-2, 2B, RBI)