Let’s turn the clock back to 2013, the last season the Tampa Bay Rays found themselves in the postseason. Marred by inconsistent production and pitching at the start of the season, the Rays posted a sub par 12-14 record in April, although they improved the following month with an 18-10 May.
Still, even with the May bounce back, the team was in a funk that former manager Joe Maddon tried to alleviate through a myriad of Semi-Pro like stunts.
Maddon did a pregame interview with a cockatoo on his shoulder. He brought penguins into the locker room. At one point, he had his players line up to hold a 20-foot python. Maddon also brought a merengue band, Sol Caribe, into the locker-room, telling his Twitter feed that the band brought a “great vibe” to the clubhouse. Somehow the Rays snapped out of their malaise, and eventually went on a 21-5 tear in July, which helped keep them relevant.
Moving forward, the 2016 squad started the season similarly, going 11-14 in April. However, May was not kind to the current squad that went 11-16. The losses of Logan Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier, due to the injury bug, certainly didn’t help.
Since the calendar month just flipped, and since the 2013 and 2016 squads are similar to a point, I decided to look back at the month of May by comparing the output — both offensive and on the mound — of the two teams.
On one hand, the 2016 Rays outperformed the 2011 squad…at least as it relates to runs scored — 130 in 2016 vs 117 in 2011. However, that output is 36 runs shy of the 2013 mark. In fact, the new and improved Rays only beat their former selves in two categories: ISO and HR/FB ratio.
Sure, they hit a shocking number of homers in May — 44 as compared to 31 in 2013 — but on the whole, the team hasn’t much to show for its efforts. The only saving grace: the team has a 26-27 Pythagorean Expectation at the moment, which is much more palatable than the actual 23-30 record. Even then, the Pythagorean Expectation was precipitated by the May 16-20 win streak, in which Tampa Bay scored 38 runs and allowed 12. That is, they’ve score in clumps, not consistently.
As compared to the 2013 team, the current squad isn’t reaching base as often, it isn’t driving in as many runs, and it is striking out too much.
As for pitching, starting with the front five, there really isn’t much of a difference between then and now — at least on paper. That isn’t necessarily a good thing, as a high-water mark wasn’t set in May 2013.
On a base level, the current rotation is walking more batters than the 2013 team, which included both Jeremy Hellickson and Roberto Hernandez. The starting rotation didn’t do the team any favors in May of 2013, nor was it pristine last month. Drew Smyly, Chris Archer and Matt Moore all snubbed the month of April by bloating their overall ERA and FIP, forcing the team’s inconsistent offense to try to cover for their mistakes.
Then there are the relievers, who were not dominant by any stretch of the imagination. And while there could be some bad luck at play, as evidenced by the .318 BABIP and 48.6 GB%, the ‘pen — led by Steve Geltz — gave up 12 homers in 83-2/3 innings, good for a 1.51 HR/9 rate. That’s nearly twice the .85 HR/9 rate collected by the 2013 bullpen in the month of May.
Everything is bad forever, and nothing will ever be good again…right? Not necessarily.
Moving forward
It should be remembered that at this point last season, the Blue Jays were 23-29, and went on to win the division. I’ll concede the point, much of Toronto’s ultimate success was based on the acquisitions of David Price, Troy Tuluwitzki, and LaTroy Hawkins down the stretch. Still, even if the Rays don’t make any trades by the deadline, they will upgrade the roster over the next two months.
Logan Forsythe not only is fielding ground balls, he is also taking batting practice. He is expected to return at some point in the next home stand. After the June Super Two date passes, we could see the addition of top prospect Brett Snell. Then there’s Alex Cobb and Chase Whitley, who are expected to retake the mound in July.
To that end, the current players who are underperforming should start hitting for their career average and pitching more deeply into games.
In the end it’s easy to get mired in the muck, but it’s too early to give up hope. When you take into consideration the peripherals, Tampa Bay should start to play better baseball and collect more wins.