The Tampa Bay Rays haven’t played the best baseball of late, losing 10 of their last 12 contests while yielding at least six runs on six occasions during that stretch. They head to Minneapolis on Thursday, where they’ll face another underperforming team, the Minnesota Twins, in a four game weekend series.
Tampa Bay is coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the reigning World Series champs, losing Wednesday’s series finale by a 6-3 margin. That loss concluded a series in which the Rays’ vaunted pitching staff posted a 7.50 ERA with a .375 OBA. It’s all but certain that the team is excited by the change of scenery, away from the house of nightmares that is Kauffman Stadium.
As of now, the Rays rank 13th in the AL in scoring, although they have allowed the fifth-fewest runs in the league.
In all fairness, the Twins haven’t made much noise in any venue this season. Minnesota is coming off its ninth sweep this season, this time by Oakland, as the Twins return to Target Field where they are just 5-18 this season ― losers of 11 of their last 13 and four straight series defeats.
The Twins took 2-of-3 last season at home, however, the Rays are 16-6 all-time at Target Field. Until last season, the Twins had not won a season series against the Rays since 2006.
Rays skipper Kevin Cash will throw Matt Moore (2-3, 5.31 ERA), Jake Odorizzi (2-3, 3.36 ERA), Matt Andriese (3-0, 2.36 ERA), and Drew Smyly (2-7, 4.77 ERA) over the next four days. Paul Molitor will counter with Kyle Gibson (0-3, 6.10 ERA), Ricky Nolasco (2-3, 5.28 ERA), Ervin Santana (1-4, 4.13 ERA), and Tyler Duffey (2-4, 4.57 ERA).
Rays series starters
Moore tossed 6-2/3 innings Saturday against the Yankees, allowing just three runs on eight hits and three walks, while striking out seven. The 26-year-old southpaw lasted more than six innings for the first time since April, with Saturday’s performance being the best over the course of May. While Moore continues to struggle with the long ball ― allowing at least one in eight of his last 10 starts ― he at least he showed an improvement over what he’s done since his first five starts.
Odorizzi took a hard-luck loss on Sunday, allowing just one hit against the Yankees over seven innings. That one hit, however, was a two-run homer by Starlin Castro, providing the margin of defeat. Jake retired the first 16 batters he faced before one batter reached on an error. He allowed just the one hit and one walk, while fanning six.
Andriese allowed just two runs (one earned) on five scattered hits, two walks and two balks, with three strikeouts over seven innings on Monday. Andriese continues to be a bright spot in the starting rotation since his May 8 call-up, collecting four quality starts in his five appearances this season. And while he has just 20 strikeouts in 34-1/3 innings, Andriese has coaxed at least eight groundball outs in each of his starts. He induced 13 groundball outs against the Royals, and has only allowed just one long ball all season.
Smyly lasted just four innings Tuesday night, allowing eight runs on 12 hits while walking one and striking out three. The left-hander’s tough month came to a head in his worst defeat of the season, and Smyly has now struck out a season low in consecutive weeks. As it was written elsewhere, it’s hard not to wonder if Smyly’s early-season success was simply a mirage. It’s probably wise not to count much on the 26-year-old until he makes some sort of adjustment.
Twins series starters
Gibson (shoulder) will be activated from the disabled list before his start Thursday. Gibson will take Phil Hughes’ spot in the rotation, as Hughes will be moved to the bullpen. Gibson didn’t have much success earlier in the season (6.10 ERA/5.34 FIP), although he did well in his two rehab starts, and could be in line for improvement. Eno Sarris (FanGraphs) wrote about Gibson at the precipice of the season:
Maybe it’s just his team ― the Twins often espouse pitching to contact, and Kyle Gibson is a product of their system. Or maybe it’s his fastballs ― they don’t get great whiff rates. Whatever it is, Gibson hasn’t yet struck out batters at a major league average rate. Maybe that’s not remarkable, plenty of other pitchers have chosen grounders over strikeouts, especially in that organization. But what makes it remarkable in the case of Gibson is that he has the tools to get strikeouts. His slider gets whiffs a fifth of the time, which is top twenty for a starter. His curve gets average whiffs, and the changeup is above-average. The sinker is average. It’s enough to get average strikeouts, if he just upped the usage of his whiffier stuff. The good news is that he’s doing it, slowly, cutting his fastball usage incrementally in each year, and upping his K rate accordingly. The bad news is that there is some ways to go still ― he’s been bottom ten in strikeout rate among qualified starters ― and he might not be in the right environment to do it. Anyway, you might notice a slightly suppressed batting average on balls in play over the last two years. Don’t consider it too fluky. Research shows that pitchers with elite ground-ball rates on one or two of their pitches can suppress ball in play results even with more muted overall ground ball rates. And Gibson gets 60+% grounders on both his sinker and change. Worst case scenario, he basically repeats his work. Best case, he finds a way to mix the whiffs and grounders and takes another step forward.
Key matchups: Curt Casali (1-3), Brandon Guyer (1-3, RBI), Desmond Jennings (3-7, BB), Evan Longoria (4-10, 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (5-11, 2 2B, 2 BB)
Nolasco fanned seven and walked just one while allowing two runs across six innings on Sunday, earning his second win of the season. Prior to that Nolasco was pounded, but he rebounded with one of his best performances of the season. The scuffling Twins stand to benefit from starts like this from Nolasco, although he will need to outperform his current 5.28 ERA in order to make that happen. So far this season, Nolasco has relied upon his 83 mph slider and 92 mph four seam fastball, while also mixing in a 92 mph sinker, 75 mph knuckle curveball, and an 81 mph splitter. Key matchup: Evan Longoria (4-16, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB)
Santana threw seven strong innings on Monday, allowing three runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out five. Santana didn’t receive enough support from the offense to get a better result. The righty lowered his ERA to 4.13 after an outing where he allowed six runs on 3-2/3 innings in his previous turn. In 2016, Santana has relied primarily on an average 93 mph four seam fastball and an 85 mph slide, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup with cut action, and a 92 mph worm-burner of a sinker. Key matchups: Corey Dickerson (2-3, 2 2B), Desmond Jennings (2-8, HR, RBI), Evan Longoria (7-17, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Brad Miller (1-4, 2B, RBI), Logan Morrison (2-6)
Duffey allowed five runs on 10 hits with six strikeouts and one walk over 4-2/3 innings on Tuesday. Duffey has allowed 16 runs and 28 hits over his last 17-1/3 innings of work. It’s been said that he’s in danger of being demoted if he has another poor outing. While he has a healthy 13:4 K:BB ratio in his last three starts, he’s given up just too many hits. He has relied primarily on an 81 mph worm burner of a curveball, and a heavy 91 mph four seam fastball. He’s also mixed in a 91 mph sinker and an 83 mph changeup that result in a fair number of fly balls. Key matchup: Evan Longoria (1-3, 2B)
Noteworthiness
― Evan Longoria has collected six RBI during his five-game hitting streak.
― Taylor Motter is 1-17 over his last seven games.
― Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Brandon Guyer reached 50 HBP in 281 games ― faster than any player in the modern era, passing Jason Kendall (288).
― Byron Buxton has hit safely in both games since being recalled from Triple-A Rochester on Tuesday.
― Miguel Sano, who hit four homers in his previous six games, was placed on the 15-day DL with a hamstring injury.