Update: James Shields is a bit like Marty McFly. See, he revisited 2011 in his start against the Mariners on July 20th, then revisited 2010 in his last start against the Orioles yesterday. A lot has been made over why he isn’t performing in that “somewhere between 2010 and 2011” range that many of us assumed he would. With Shields the topic of many trade rumors, I figured that maybe we should revisit this topic with some updates at the bottom.
Going into this season, I don’t think any of us assumed that James Shields would be as good as he was last season. Still, most of us felt that if Shields put up numbers somewhere between what he did in 2010 and 2011, he’d be an effective starter and an asset to the team…hence the reason the Rays didn’t trade him when his trade equity was, arguably, at its highest.
Now with just over half of the 2012 season in the record books, we find an 8-7 pitcher with a 4.52 ERA and a 3.84 FIP. Shields has become a pitcher who’s averaging just over six innings per start, when he averaged seven plus innings per start last season. The question begs, why is Shields pitching more like he did in 2010 than he did in 2011? A couple of things could be holding Shields back: an inconsistent release point and an increase in velocity. Both may be effecting location of his pitches. Let’s see if the charts and graphs can tell us anything.
First off, James Shields is a pitcher whose primary pitch is the fastball. His changeups, curveballs, cutters, and sliders tend to work off of the fastball, and most pitchers use the fastball early in the game to get command of the strike zone. If one thing holds true, Shields is a fairly unpredictable pitcher. He’ll throw any pitch in any count. It bears mentioning that Shields has thrown his fastball less this season than he has in the previous five seasons; 17% of the time in 2012 vs 28% of the time in 2011.
If this years All-Star game taught us anything, it’s that starters, like Justin Verlander, like to set a rhythm. Any tweaking here or there could throw them off. Case in point, Verlander quickly amping things up to 95-97 MPH in a short period of time. Verlander typically throws around 93 MPH early in the game, working up to 97+ MPH as the game progresses. What happened when Verlander had to go out there blazing and wasn’t able to set a rhythm? He lost command of his pitches.
In kind, if today taught us anything, it’s that when Shields loses command of his pitches when amps up the velocity. Shields threw 24 fastballs Sunday, yet only 14 were for strikes. Of those 14 strikes, only two were whiffs. When you include two-seam fastballs and cutters, about half counted for strikes including three were swing and misses. In short, the command of his fastball (including the two-seam fastball and cutter) was lacking, yet the average velocity of those pitches were higher than the 90-92 MPH comfort zone.
This wasn’t an isolated crappy start, rather it’s indicative of a larger issue at hand. The lot share of his pitches have increased anywhere from one to three miles per hour in 2012, up from last season.
A quick look at the vertical release point graph (above) shows the difference in release points over the years. There is a noticeable trend upward between the 2011 season and now. What’s more, you can see an upward trend between the beginning of this season and now.
In Addendum
A lot has been made about Shields cutter. Is he throwing it too often? Is he missing his location with it? Have hitters figured this pitch out? I feel like every time I listen to or watch a Rays game, a large amount of time is spent on the subject of his cutter. But what I find interesting, is that though he is throwing his cutter more often (he’s thrown it almost as many times as he did all of last year), the level of punishment for the cutter isn’t as high as you may think. His ground ball and line drive percentages are down, while his fly ball percentage is up, which tells me that he may be leaving the ball up in the zone. He’s also walking more batters, yet he’s also striking more of them out. Though to be fair, three more walks and one more strikeout is a bit negligible.
That he’s throwing the fastball less often (as mentioned above) is another point of contention. Yet what’s interesting on that end, is that his fastball isn’t as effective this year, as it was last season. In short he’s throwing it less often, and at a lower level of effectiveness than he did just a season prior. Could Shields be using the cutter less as a put away or secondary pitch, and more as a primary pitch because of the ineffectiveness of his fastball?
So it all comes back full circle to the initial argument. I suspect that these two things may correlate with a reversion back to All Fields like starts, as well as a lack of command. Perhaps an inconsistent release point could account for higher velocity as well? Nevertheless, Shields is an absolutely critical part in the Rays success. If Shields is going to be part of the 2012 roster after the trade deadline, he is going to need to solve whatever problems may be holding him back. In any case, the next four days will be interesting with concern to Shields’ future with the Rays.