After taking two of three from the Bronx Bummers, and winning five of the six contests during the last homestand, the Tampa Bay Rays depart for Baltimore, where they’ll start a three-game series against the Orioles on Monday. Baltimore dropped two of three to Atlanta over the weekend.
At 28-7 on the season, the Rays enter play 21 games over .500, and 5.5 games up on the second-place Orioles in the division.
Questions abounded as to whether the Rays were up to facing the stiff competition of top-tier ball clubs, like the Pirates and Yankees, heading into their last homestand. The offense appears to be coming back down to earth a bit — the Rays put up a .265 BA/.347 OBP/.529 SLG/.876 OPS line over the last week, with a 145 wRC+ and a 9.9 wRAA. Don’t get me wrong, those are definitely above-average numbers, however, they have slipped beneath where they had been previously.
Nevertheless, Tampa Bay is averaging a robust 6.38 runs per game (although that’s down slightly, and they’ve fallen to second in MLB), while their combined .277 batting average is the best in the game, as is their .872 OPS. The Rays also lead the league in home runs, at 71, and have stolen the fifth-most bases (32).
They will face a familiar Baltimore team that is averaging a healthy 5.58 runs per game. The Orioles’ combined .260 batting average is a respectable eighth in the league, while their .771 OPS lands them seventh. Led by Ryan Mountcastle (eight home runs), Cedric Mullins (28 RBI), and Adley Rutschman (.408 OBP), the Orioles have hit 41 homers and swiped 36 bases thus far.
Tampa Bay’s pitching staff boasts a 2.90 ERA and a 3.51 FIP (starters: 2.94 ERA and 3.15 FIP, relievers: 2.86 ERA, 3.92 FIP), with a 1.10 WHIP and 11 quality starts. Baltimore’s pitching staff has boasts a 4.58 ERA and a 4.37 FIP (starters: 5.50 ERA and 5.00 FIP, relievers: 3.37 ERA and 3.55 FIP), with a 1.35 WHIP and seven quality starts.
While the Rays went 10-9 against the Orioles a season ago with an eight-run differential, they went 3-6 at Camden Yards.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will roll out Shane McClanahan (6-0, 2.03 ERA, 3.31 FIP), Zach Eflin (4-0, 2.25 ERA, 2.97 FIP), and Yonny Chirinos (1-0, 1.86 ERA, 3.62 FIP). Brandon Hyde will counter with Kyle Gibson (4-1, 4.61 ERA, 4.51 FIP), Grayson Rodriguez (1-0, 5.46 ERA, 4.33 FIP), and Dean Kremer (3-1, 5.80 ERA, 5.44 FIP).
Shane McClanahan allowed one run on five hits and two walks over six innings during on Wednesday against Pittsburgh. He struck out nine. McClanahan gave up a solo home run to Andrew McCutchen, but he got plenty of run support and recorded at least nine punchies for the third time this season. The left-hander has given up four homers over his past three starts after not allowing one through his first four outings, although he’s yet to give up more than two runs in a game through his first seven turns. McClanahan has been one of the best pitchers in baseball thus far and currently sports a 2.03 ERA and a 3.31 FIP, with a 1.10 WHIP, and a 3.19 K/BB through 40 innings.
Kyle Gibson allowed six runs on 10 hits and no walks over 6.2 innings on Wednesday against the Royals. Gibson’s outing started well, as he surrendered just one run over his first five innings. Yet, the Royals tagged him for another run in the sixth inning before the wheels fell off an inning later. Gibson gave up four hits in the frame — including a double and a triple — and was charged with four runs by the time the inning was over. The six runs and 10 hits allowed were both season-worst marks. Overall, Gibson maintains a 4.61 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, with a 1.34 WHIP, and a 2.45 K/BB across 41.0 innings. He relies primarily on a 92 mph two-seam sinker that has some natural sinking action and an 82 mph slider that sweeps across the zone, while also mixing in an 85 mph changeup that dives down out of the zone and has slight arm-side fade, a 92 mph four-seam fastball, a 90 mph cutter, and an 80 mph 12-6 curveball. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (2-5), Yandy Díaz (3-7, BB), Brandon Lowe (4-13, 2B, 3B, RBI), Isaac Paredes (3-3, 2B)
Zach Eflin allowed three hits over seven scoreless innings against the Pirates on Thursday. He struck out 10. Eflin went over six innings for the first time in this season and set a season high with double-digit punchouts. Through 28.0 frames, Eflin holds a 2.25 ERA and a 2.97 FIP, with a 10.33 K/BB.
Grayson Rodriguez allowed six runs on eight hits and a walk while striking out three batters over 3.2 innings against Kansas City on Thursday. Rodriguez entered Thursday having pitched a combined 10 scoreless frames over his previous two turns, although he couldn’t maintain that momentum against the Royals. The right-hander served up three home runs and five runs between the third and fourth innings, departing two outs in the fourth inning having thrown 77 pitches. The eight hits and six total runs he allowed were both season highs, while the three punchouts were a season low. Rodriguez’s ERA jumped from 4.07 to 5.46 (with a 4.33 FIP) as a result of the poor outing. He relies primarily on a 97 mph four-seam fastball and an 84 mph changeup that has some natural sink to it, while also mixing in an 81 mph slider that sweeps across the zone, a 90 mph cutter that has some natural sink, and a 79 mph 12-6 curveball.
Yonny Chirinos allowed three runs on three hits and four walks over 5.1 innings against the Yankees on Friday. He struck out zero. Chirinos made his first start of the season Friday after posting a 0.64 ERA over 14 frames as a multi-inning reliever. He got early run support and put up zeros for the five innings before getting into trouble in the sixth. He allowed one run to come in before he was pulled with two on and one out, although both those baserunners came around to score on a Harrison Bader home run. It wasn’t the best performance for Chirinos, who walked four and didn’t record a strikeout, but he was able to mitigate the damage. Overall, Chirinos maintains a 1.86 ERA and a 3.62 FIP, with a 0.78 WHIP, and a 1.33 K/BB across 19.1 innings.
Dean Kremer allowed one run on six hits and two walks over six innings Friday, striking out three Atliens. Kremer coughed up a run in the first inning before settling in for a nice quality start. Despite recording just three punchouts, he forced a season-high 15 whiffs. Kremer lowered his ERA to 5.80 (and a 5.44 FIP) through 35.2 frames. He’s given up at least four runs in five of his seven starts, yet he’s surendered just one run in a combined 12.2 innings in the other two. Kremer relies primarily on a whiff 95 mph fourseam fastball, while also mixing in a 90 mph cutter that has strong cutting action, an 85 mph changeup, an 83 mph slider that dives down out of the zone and has slight armside fade, a 92 mph sinker that has slight arm-side run, and a 78 mph curveball that has slight glove-side movement. Key Matchups: Randy Arozarena (3-7, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Brandon Lowe (3-5, 2 BB), Josh Lowe (1-2, 2B), Isaac Paredes (1-4), Harold Ramírez (1-4, BB), Taylor Walls (1-4)
The Music That Influenced This Preview
Hardcore for the freaks is Gel’s mission statement, and Only Constant — their first full length — is full of rippers that kicks the door in kind of like the mutant biker scene from Weird Science. The band members are also sweethearts, but shhhh…let’s keep that a secret since punk rock isn’t about sugar and spice and everything nice (or something).