Let’s call it what it is, the last few days have not been ideal for the Tampa Bay Rays. Nevertheless, they enter Sunday’s homestand finale in salvage mode as they look to pick up one last win before they head out west. At 13-15 on the season (and 3-6 during the homestand), the Rays could avoid starting the upcoming road trip three games under .500 with a win this afternoon.
Much has been said about the Rays wRISP woes, and for good reason — their lack of productivity is primarily the result of struggles with runners in scoring position. Tampa Bay is 1-for-10 in this series and 3-for-their-last-54. The team has scored two runs or fewer in four straight games. However, this goes deeper than not driving in runners at second and third, as they have had difficulty at the plate, in general, the last week to two weeks. Enter the BABIP luck dragons.
Looking at things in context, over the last seven days, the Rays combined BABIP has hovered around the .207 mark — roughly .082 (give it take) below their season mark, and .093 below last season’s mark. Put another way, they have made contact, but they’ve hit the ball where the fielders were, not where they weren’t. That number will eventually change, and their production will increase.
Does the offense need to figure things out? Yes, 100%. But, as I mentioned in the opening series preview, the team is in the midst of the toughest part of the schedule, and things will progressively get easier … especially around July and beyond. In short, they need to hang around where they are in the W/L columns — and ideally get over that .500 hump — until then, and after they should be able to rattle off wins more consistently. By then, too, we should see the promotion of some prospects including a certain number one overall prospect. The pitching has stabilized for the most part, and the BABIP tides will eventually turn.
That being said, it won’t be any easier for them this afternoon.
The New What Next
Rich Hill (1-1, 7.25 ERA) will get the start, pitching opposite of Cristian Javier (3-0, 0.87 ERA). Kevin Cash is also planning to use Michael Wacha in relief this afternoon, which sets up a pretty good matchup Monday night in Anaheim: Tyler Glasnow vs. Shohei Ohtani.
Rich Hill surrendered two runs on two hits and two walks across six innings against the Athletics on Monday. Hill struck out 10 on 93 pitches (59 strikes, 63% strike rate), and made only one real mistake which Sean Ryan Murphy drove into the first row of the left-field seats. Hill came through with his first quality start of the season, which allowed him to lower both his ERA and FIP. He now boasts a 3.43 K/BB across 22-1/3 innings this season. Hill is 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 10 career outings (six starts) against the Astros.
Michael Wacha gave up just one run on five hits over five innings against the Athletics on Tuesday. He struck out two without walking a batter. Wacha was far from dominant although he did pound the strike zone, tossing 52 of 69 pitches for strikes (75% strike rate) while walking none. Wacha now maintains a 3.86 ERA and 2.88 K/BB through 25-2/3 innings on the season. Wacha is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA in one career outing against the Astros.
Cristian Javier pitched seven scoreless innings against Seattle on Tuesday. He allowed just two hits — both to Kyle Seager — and three walks while striking out six and preventing the Mariners from reaching third base. He completed seven innings for the first time in his career and now has thrown 17 consecutive scoreless frames. Javier’s ERA now stands at a sterling, yet unsustainable, 0.87 across 20-2/3 innings, with a 4.33 K/BB. Javier has never faced the Rays. He relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball and an 81 mph slider, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup.
You can read about the series in our preview while the starting lineup and Noteworthiness are below.
Rays 5/2/21 Starting Lineup
- Arozarena DH
- Meadows LF
- Wendle 3B
- B. Lowe 2B
- Kiermaier CF
- Adames SS
- Tsutsugo 1B
- Mejía C
- Phillips RF
- Hill LHP
Noteworthiness
— Prior to the game Collin McHugh (lower back strain) will throw a simulated game while facing Ji-Man Choi (meniscus surgery). McHugh could then be activated during the upcoming road trip. Meanwhile, Choi will continue his rehab by playing games for the Durham Bulls.