After splitting a four-game series with the red-hot Athletics, the Tampa Bay Rays will open a three-game set against the Houston Astros beginning on Friday. The Astros most recently took three of four from the Seattle Mariners. This will be the first time the two franchises will meet in a regular-season series since facing one another in the postseason in each of the last two years.
The Rays’ pitching staff really shined the last seven days, allowing three runs or fewer in six of the last seven contests — giving them a 2.33 ERA/3.18 FIP over that stretch. However, you can’t win games if you don’t score runs, which Tampa Bay had a very difficult time doing against Oakland. While they plated six two-out runs, the Rays also averaged 2.25 runs per game and hit .065 wRISP (2-for-31). That is, how you say, not good.
Meanwhile, Houston’s offense is third in the big leagues, averaging 5.1 runs per game, and fourth in batting (.258). Expect Kyle Snyder and Kevin Cash to have Rays’ hurlers key in on Yuli Gurriel, who boasts a .443 on-base percentage with four home runs, and 16 RBI; Yordan Alvarez, who is batting .309 with 14 RBI; and Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa who each has collected 12 RBI on the season.
The Astros have outperformed the Rays overall, yet Tampa Bay bested Houston in just about every offensive category over the last two weeks. Per usual though, the Astros don’t really strikeout or walk, rather they put the ball in play often and put pressure on opposing pitchers and defenses. The Rays have done pretty much the opposite; strike out a bunch and get on base often, yet they haven’t been able to put the ball in play with runners in scoring position. Could this be the series where the tides turn for the good guys?
The Rays most recently won the best of seven ALCS against the Astros four-games-to-three.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Ryan Yarbrough (1-2, 4.28 ERA), Josh Fleming (1-2, 1.22 ERA), and Rich Hill (1-1, 7.25 ERA). Dusty Baker will counter with Lance McCullers Jr. (1-1, 4.58 ERA), José Urquidy (1-2, 4.67 ERA), and Cristian Javier (3-0, 0.87 ERA).
Ryan Yarbrough took the mound in the second inning of Saturday’s contest and served as the bulk-guy, pitching 5-2/3 scoreless innings, scattering three hits (one on the infield) and a walk while striking out six. Yarbrough put together the best performance of the season by doing what he is wont to do: keep Toronto’s batters off balance while also inducing weak contact. He’s pitched much better in 10-2/3 bulk-innings this season, allowing just one run (a 0.88 ERA) compared to 16-2/3 innings as a traditional starter in which he’s performed to a 6.48 ERA. Yarbrough is 0-1 with a 2.92 ERA in two career outings (one start) against the Astros.
Lance McCullers Jr. yielded two runs on three hits and two walks over six innings on Sunday against the Angels. He struck out five. McCullers missed his last time through the rotation as he dealt with side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine although was able to throw 106 pitches Sunday. The right-hander threw a fairly clean outing aside from a fifth-inning two-run single. He now boasts a 4.58 ERA with a 1.91 K/BB across 19-2/3 frames. McCullers is 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. He relies primarily on a 94 mph sinker and an 85 mph curveball, while also mixing in an 87 mph changeup. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2), Manuel Margot (1-3), Joey Wendle (1-3)
Josh Fleming allowed one run on four hits and two walks while striking out three across 4-1/3 innings against the Blue Jays on Sunday. Fleming entered Sunday’s contest as the bulk guy behind right-hander Luis Patiño and was relatively effective in Sunday’s series finale, although he was charged with the loss since he gave up the only run of the game in the top of the fifth inning. Fleming has posted a 1.23 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 14-2/3 innings to start the year.
José Urquidy held the Mariners to two runs on five hits and no walks while striking out a pair of batters across six innings on Monday. All of Urquidy’s damage came from a pair of solo homes off the bats of Kyle Lewis and Kyle Seager. The right-hander did not issue any free passes for the second time this season while throwing 67 of his 96 pitches for strikes (70% strike rate). The 25-year-old carries a 4.67 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the season. Urquidy has never faced the Rays. He relies primarily on a 92 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 83 mph changeup, a 79 mph slider, and a 76 mph curveball.
Rich Hill surrendered two runs on two hits and two walks across six innings against the Athletics on Monday. Hill struck out 10 on 93 pitches (59 strikes, 63% strike rate), and made only one real mistake which Sean Ryan Murphy drove into the first row of the left-field seats. Hill came through with his first quality start of the season, which allowed him to lower both his ERA and FIP. He now boasts a 3.43 K/BB across 22-1/3 innings this season. Hill is 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 10 career outings (six starts) against the Astros.
Cristian Javier pitched seven scoreless innings against Seattle on Tuesday. He allowed just two hits — both to Kyle Seager — and three walks while striking out six and preventing the Mariners from reaching third base. He completed seven innings for the first time in his career and now has thrown 17 consecutive scoreless frames. Javier’s ERA now stands at a sterling, yet unsustainable, 0.87 across 20-2/3 innings, with a 4.33 K/BB. Javier has never faced the Rays. He relies primarily on a 93 mph four-seam fastball and an 81 mph slider, while also mixing in an 86 mph changeup.
Noteworthiness
— Of luck dragons and such…
Willy Adames, like a few other Rays, has been nipped by the BABIP luck dragons. Adames entered the series finale with Oakland on Thursday with seven barrels — four fewer than he had last season — and a 51% hard-hit rate. Yet, his xBA (.225) and xSLG (.508) are noticeably higher than his actual statistics.
We’re confident that it’s coming. Talking to him, he’s confident that it’s coming. I’m really impressed and encouraged with the way Willy has gone about his early season lack of results — I don’t even want to say scuffles, just lack of results.
— Kevin Cash
Tampa Bay’s .289 BABIP (.299 over the last 14 days) speaks to an overall struggle to hit it where they’re not.
— Rays manager Kevin Cash said the team to have Yoshi Tsutsugo back on the roster and in the lineup for Friday’s series opener against the Astros. Like reliever Diego Castillo before him, Tsutsugo was placed on the COVID-19 IL due to the effects of a vaccination shot. Meanwhile, Rich Hill was placed on the COVID-19 IL due to, you guessed it, effects of a vaccination shot. The team is hopeful he will be available on Sunday.
— Baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, Wander Franco, will start the season at Triple-A — altogether leap-frogging Double-A Montgomery, and setting up a potential late-July promotion. Next stop: the big leagues!