Rays vs. the Jays, 5/14/12 (Update with Jennings DL Information)

Update: It looks as though Rays left-fielder, Desmond Jennings, is headed to the DL at some point tonight or tomorrow. Out-fielder, Stephen Vogt, looks to be his likely replacement. Vogt hit did not reach base in his seven game, 13 plate appearance stint earlier in the season. Audible groans could be heard.

Any speculation that the newly acquired Hedeki Matsui would be filling in for the ailing left-fielder is unfounded. Odds are good that Matsui will be added to the Triple-A Durham roster by the middle of this week, but not to the Rays roster at this time.

A battered, and somewhat beleaguered, Rays (21-14) makes its way into the Rogers Center tonight for a bang-bang, two game set against the Blue Jays (19-16). Coming off of a big, yet shaky, victory in Baltimore yesterday, Tampa Bay will attempt to take the next two game, and return home with a 4-4 following their current road trip. Tampa Bay can make up some ground against Baltimore with a couple of wins, and a few Orioles losses against New York. Conversely, the Blue Jays are looking to make up some ground against the Rays with a couple of victories.

Taking the hill for the Rays will be Jeff Niemann (2-3, 3.48 ERA) who’s coming off a big start in New York. Jeff Niemann received a no-decision while posting a 7.0 IP/6 H/1 ER/1 BB/5 K line. Niemann had a decent start against the Jays back in April, giving up two earned runs on three hits while striking out five. He only lasted five innings in that start though, being pulled out of the game in the sixth because he got into some trouble, compounded with a somewhat high pitch count. Niemann inevitably got the loss. You’ve got to believe that Niemann can be successful if he uses the momentum from his last start to his advantage, along with David Price’s plan of attack against the Jays in his last start.

Brandon Morrow (4-1, 2.27 ERA) gets the start for the Jays tonight. , Morrow has been nearly flawless following his last start against the Rays, where he posted a 6 IP/8 H/6 ER/3 BB/2 K line. Morrow’s given up a combined two earned runs, while striking out 30, in 27.2 innings of work since that woeful start. Over the course of the last three years, the Rays have averaged a very cold .153 BAA against Morrow in 13 meetings. In turn, Morrow has a posted a 2.26 ERA against Tampa Bay. All of this is to say that Morrow is a very good, very dangerous, pitcher who the Rays have dutifully handled only four times, in 13 previous outings against the righty.

There is still no word whether Desmond Jennings will be placed on the DL or not. Nevertheless, don’t expect to see him in the lineup tonight. Defensive powerhouse, Sean Rodriguez, will get the start at third. In his words, he is “More sore,” today than he was the last two days. Also in the lineup for the third day in a row is Chris Gimenez. Something tells me that Jose Molina may still be feeling the effects of his start against the Yankees last week where he had the proverbial crap beat out of him. Starting lineup is below. As always, Let’s Go Rays!

Tampa Bay Rays (21-14)

Zobrist RF
Upton CF
Joyce LF
Pena 1B
Scott DH
Rodriguez 3B
Rhymes 2B
Gimenez C
Johnson SS
Niemann RHP

Looking Back While Moving Forward; Rays Say Goodbye to Charm City and Hello to Toronto

“Big Game” James Shields improved his record to 6-1 in a rather crazy 9-8 victory over the Orioles, Sunday in Baltimore

I’ll be blunt, I’m damn happy that the series against the Orioles is over. Baltimore, I like you. I really respect your team and what Buck Showalter’s done. And to be honest, I’m excited about the idea of a future competitive rivalry between the Rays and the O’s similar to that of the Red Sox and Yankees…minus the Neanderthal like fans of course. However, your bullpen is no joke, and I’m more than happy to see the Rays walk into Toronto, where the potential to get more than two runs on three hits in 10 plus innings is greater.

Today’s game was a hairy one to say the least. But at least the Rays offense can put a feather in their collective caps over something: after averaging a mere 3.2 runs per game in the first five games of their current eight game road trip, the Rays really broke the door open by scoring nine runs. I’m not breaking out the ticker-tape and streamers just yet; the Rays have scored, on average, only 4.16 runs per game which is just under their season average of 4.51 runs per game. What’s more, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.65 runs per game, and have won four out of their last five at home, while scoring 33 runs.

The Rays haven’t been so hot on this road trip. Going 2-4 so far, they will need take the next two games from the Blue Jays if they’re to come home Wednesday 4-4 following this eight game stint on the road. Beating a very good Blue Jays team may not be so easy. Without even focusing on the Jays, a couple of things stand in the way of the Rays going into Toronto: A) The Rays offense not scoring enough runs, and B) The starting rotation not getting quality starts.

The Rays have scored 25 runs over the course of the last six games. In that span of time, Tampa Bay has stranded 46 runners on the bags. Too, they’ve had runners in scoring position 62 times, yet they only capitalized on those 62 runners in scoring position 12 times. That’s way too many runners left on base in critical situations.

It was, however, encouraging to see Tampa Bay depend on base-hits to drive in runners instead of leaning on the big bats to hit home runs. Only two of the Rays nine runs came off of, clutch, one run blasts from Elliot Johnson and Ben Zobrist. Those runs were, in the scheme of things, very important. But, the BJ Upton/Luke Scott/Carlos Pena’s on the roster, all too often, try to play the role of hero by hitting dingers, when RBI base-hits would suffice. Tampa Bay was ultimately able to get on base and drive in runs today, with only Scott and Sean Rodriguez not finding they way on base. It was also encouraging to see Pena start to come out of his slump, going two for five with two doubles, two RBI, and one run. With the uncertainty of whether Desmond Jennings will be in the lineup in the forthcoming days, the Rays will need to make sure that approach the Blue Jays similarly to how they approached the plate today.

One problem the Rays were having was that the starting pitchers were not able to go deeper into games. But, with the exception of Matt Moore who only went 4.1 innings Saturday, the starting rotation has been able to start chewing up the innings. Jeff Niemann, who will take the bump opposite of Brandon Morrow in the first game of two two game set against the Blue Jays, was able to go seven solid innings against the Yankees. Niemann gave up only one run on four hits in that start. James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson are the two other pitchers that have been able to get quality starts on this road trip.

To me, it’s not a question of whether the pitchers are going deep enough into games. Rather, it’s a question of whether they’re giving up too many runs. Tampa Bay’s pitching is going to have to shut down a very potent Joey Bats and Co, which in turn gives the offense the opportunity to chip away a very good Brandon Morrow and Co. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Tampa Bay could walk away from the Rogers Center on a four game winning streak.

Notable Stat Lines

  • Ben Zobrist 3-4. HR, 3 RBI
  • Matt Joyce 2-5. RBI
  • Will Rhymes 2-4. RBI
  • Matt Joyce 2-5. Run, RBI
  • Carlos Pena 2-5. Two doubles, Run, 2 RBI
  • Elliot Johnson 3-4. HR, 3 Run, 2 RBI
  • James Shields W (6-1)  6.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K’s
  • Fernando Rodney S (10) 1 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 K
  • Joel Peralta H.  1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 K

Dear Joe

Dear Joe,

Just a quick note before I move on to today’s game stuff. I know, I really shouldn’t hold any residual angst toward you or the team, especially after more than 12 hours have passed since the 27th out of the game. That’s what you preach in the clubhouse, and that is definitely a good way of going about your daily business. But if I may, I’ve got some frustration left over from last night, and I’ve got to get it off of my chest. Okay, here goes.

See, you decided to leave two major cogs out of the lineup last night: Matt Joyce and Carlos Pena. Because those two were left out, two inferior defensive replacements were put in the lineup instead; Brandon Guyer in left field, and Jeff Keppinger at first. I understand the reasoning behind this move, and it makes sense to an extent. And it’s true, both Joyce and Pena have a harder time hitting lefties than righties, with Joyce hitting .267 vs lefties and .288 vs righties, and Pena hitting .217 vs lefties and .230 vs righties. Plus, Pena needed a day off to gather his whits about him, and come back into today’s game with a clear head.

However I contend, that though Joyce and Pena may have had a null effect at the plate, their gloves could have have taken away two to three runs that the Oriole’s scored on or directly because of errors. How so? In the second inning, Adam Jones reached first on an errant throw by Sean Rodriguez. Now, the error was credited to Sean-Rod, and it was indeed a poor throw. However, a visibly uncomfortable Jeff Keppinger at first wasn’t able to snag the throw as it sailed over his head. Then, Keppinger wasn’t able to catch the pick-off attempt by Matt Moore, advancing Jones to second. If Pena was in the game, at least one of those errors never happens, and Adam Jones doesn’t make it into scoring position with no outs. Simple as that. Then, had the sure handed Joyce been in left-field instead of Guyer, the error on the Steve Tolleson double never happens, and Matt Wieters never scores. A two run inning becomes a one run inning, at most. Surely, in this day and age of Baseball Info Solutions, WAR, etc, you had to have weighed the pro’s/con’s of throwing two inexperienced players (read: inexperienced at the positions they were playing) in the game which directly resulted in runs that would, inevitably, sink the ship. Alright, I’m done with the Joe Maddon/Schmitty heart-to-heart.

Note: We had a lot more written following what you see above, yet WordPress got all buggy, didn’t auto save, and inevitably erased it when I hit the “publish” tab. Fist shaking and some cursing ensued. This smaller piece, sans discussion of today’s game and the starting lineup, will have to suffice.

Of Note: Tampa Bay is, on average, leaving about four runners (3.91 to be exact) in scoring position on road in 2012. That number is down from last year, yet it’s no less disconcerting, especially after the last five games where the Rays have gone 1-4. Sean Rodriguez is getting an off day today. Rodriguez, who’s currently in the throes of a ten game hitting streak, has a sore left pec following multiple diving plays over the course of the last few games. We can expect him back in the lineup tomorrow. Speaking of injuries, Maddon is mulling over putting left fielder, Desmond Jennings, on the DL following last weekends knee strain.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward, Rays Vs. O’s 5/12/12 (Updated with Starting Lineup)

Bring me the head of Matt Wieters! Sean Rodriguez collides at the plate with Matt Wieters in the fourth inning. Somehow Wieters held on to the ball…and kept his head attached to his body. (Photo by, Keith Allison)

Update: Neither Matt Joyce or Desmond Jennings will be in tonight’s lineup. They are, presumably, available as pinch hitters.

5/12/12 Starting Lineup:

Zobrist RF

Rodroguez 3B

Upton CF

Keppinger 1B

Guyer LF

Scott DH

Johnson SS

Gimenez C

Rhymes 2B

Moore LHP

I’m not a huge fan of what can be deemed pointless statistics. Call me crazy, but the color of the pitchers hair, compounded with the barometric pressure of the third row of seats in section 143 at precise moment a home run is hit, seems like fairly useless information.

As much as Twitter can offer loads of useless information and pointless statistical analysis, I periodically check the @BARaysFanSite (hint-hint) account during Rays games, last night being no different. What can I say, I’m a glutton for punishment when it comes to random (read: somewhat inane) bits of information and, well…pointless statistical analysis. Besides, you never know when those nuggets of knowledge may come in handy on Jeopardy, or something.

Low and behold, DRaysBay posted a few stats that I, at the time, thought were pointless. Yet in retrospect, they’re absolutely relevant now. The most relevant tweet being:

“#rays and #orioles tied at 1 thanks to an Adam Jones HR. #Orioles are 19-7 when they homer in a game this year.”

When I initially read that tweet, I thought to myself, “yeah-yeah, the Rays are up 3-1, and Hellickson seems in full control of his game.” And to be fair Hellickson was in control of his game last night. The two big hits that Hellickson gave up were mistakes that he left out over the plate. Otherwise, he did a great job of inducing ground-outs and pop-outs, while striking out six, and walking one in his 6-2/3 innings of work. One could argue that he probably could have finished off the seventh inning himself. Nevertheless, the stat above was a good predictor for what was to come, and now the Orioles at 20-7 when hitting a home run in a game.

I’ll be honest, I was a bit jealous of the Orioles when I watched their on field celebration following the Jim Johnson 1-2-3 KO punch to end the game. But, good on the O’s; they beat the Rays at their own game. Namely, consistently keeping the pressure on Tampa Bay offensively, while also relying on a very good bullpen to suppress, any late inning Rays threats.

Let’s not kid ourselves, Dana Eveland certainly wasn’t exactly Cy Young last night. The Rays could and should have taken full advantage of the gifts (cough…five hits, six walks, and two hit batters) that Eveland dished out. Instead, they left eight men on the bags, including runners in scoring position in both the second and fourth innings.

There’s an old adage: You can’t win games if you don’t score runs. And when you look at the final score, 4-3, you realize that, as with the Yankees series that preceded the current series, Tampa Bay opportunities to win the game. Yet they couldn’t get the timely hitting that they needed to drive in two or three more runs.

History is history, and Tampa Bay will need to exploit two things if they’re going to be successful tonight: Baltimore leads all of baseball in the home run column, and the O’s are ranked 29th out of 30 in fielding. I know what you’re thinking, if Baltimore is leading all of baseball in home runs, how exactly can the Rays exploit that?

The majority of Baltimore’s home runs are one run homers. I’m not willing to wave the white flag and admit that the Orioles are, undoubtedly, going to hit home runs. However, the odds are good that they will hit one or two dingers tonight, especially if Matt Moore continues down this current path of mediocrity. Moore can limit any potential damage incurred, by limiting the number of Oriole base runners. Hellickson did a good job of that last night, and Moore should utilize his plan of attack against the O’s tonight. If I may, young Matt, 22 runs in 34.2 innings of work aint gonna cut it tonight, nor will a 1.5/1 strike out to walk ratio.

Tampa Bay will need to exploit both Brian Matusz (1-4, 5.91 ERA) and the worst defense in the AL. That is to say, the Rays will need to do what they do best: play small ball, rattle Matusz, and score runs early before the second best bullpen in all of baseball (a combined 9-2, 2.13 ERA) comes into the game.

Matusz is 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA in his career against the Rays. Though only five Ray batters have official at-bats against the tall lefty, both BJ Upton and Ben Zobrist have had considerable success against Matusz, hitting a combined .349 with four RBI and a home run in 23 at-bats. They will be very important in the lineup tonight. You’d have to imagine that a very hot Sean Rodriguez, as well as the LHP loving Jeff Keppinger will factor into things as well. It is absolutely imperative that the Rays RBI leader Luke Scott, as well as Carlos Pena will need to flex their power muscles too. No more of this bunting on two strikes, ‘Los. You’re a power hitter. I know, you’re trying to work out of a slump. But Tampa Bay needs your power, not a bunted foul-out.

Tonight’s starting lineup will be posted when it’s released. Until then, enjoy the video of Sean Rodriguez releasing a hockey like shot on Matt Wieters.

[mlbvideo id=”21337103″ width=”400″ height=”224″ /]

(Click the image above)

Rays vs. O’s, 5/11/12 (Starting Lineup Included)

As we, collectively, try to put the last series behind us, Tampa Bay walks into Cockroach City to take on the O’s for a three game set. Honestly, the Rays/Yanks series could have gone in either direction, and at least Tampa Bay avoided a sweep. Nevertheless, history is history, and now it’s time for the Rays to focus on the Orioles who they’re tied with for first place in the AL East.

It will be nice to have Matt Joyce back in the lineup tonight. Desmond Jennings, however, will be relegated to pinch hitting duties following a left knee strain on May 5th. Joe Maddon noted that Jennings is “truly is day to day.”

On Wednesday night, we all saw what could happen when the Rays are firing on, well, three out of four cylinders. Hey, it’s not perfect, and Longo’s absence leaves a huge offensive void/black hole in the lineup, but it’s better than nothing! Joyce and Scott’s bats will add some extra (read: well needed) oomph in the lineup.

Lest we forget that BJ Upton does freakishly as well at Camden Yards, and will look to do his part to get the Rays out of this six game funk, where they’ve gone 2-4. It was around this time last year that BJ had a huge four RBI night at Camden Yards, propelling the Rays to a big win. With all of those facets in working order, Tampa Bay could do some damage against the O’s, who Tampa Bay is currently tied with for first in the AL East.

Jeremy Hellickson (3-0, 2.75 ERA) looks to rebound from his shortest/least efficient start of the year on May 5th, where he lasted all of 3.2 IP while giving up 2 ER and 5 H. Hellickson threw 92 pitches (59 for strikes) in his short stint, which found the Rays, ultimately, going into extra innings and losing 4-3 in the 12th. Taking the bump against Jeremy Hellickson is LHP Dana Eveland (19-24, 5.52 major league career, 2-1, 2.84 ERA against the Rays) who will be getting his first start of the year for the Orioles, after being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk earlier in the week.

The Rays don’t have much experience against Eveland; only about 19 innings at best. Eveland’s performances haven’t really been much to write home about, posting a 14 H/6 ER/3 HR/8 BB/12 K line in those 19 innings of work. Eveland has fairly even splits against righties (.294 BAA) and lefties (.303 BAA), and is apt to leave his fastball and curveball hanging over the meat of the plate. His career 5.52 ERA speaks to that. That’s good news for Tampa Bay following the Sabathia/Soriano blunderbus that was last nights game. The starting lineup is below. Let’s Go Rays…reclaim soul possession of that number one spot in the AL East!

Rays Starting Lineup 5/11/12:

Zobrist RF

Pena 1B

Upton CF

Scott DH

Keppinger 3B

Joyce LF

Rodriguez SS

Molina C

Johnson 2B

Hellickson RHP