Updated: Rays vs. Yankees, 5/8/12 (Starting Lineup Included)

Update: It was announced earlier that Brandon Guyer would be recalled from Triple-A Durham. However, the role he’d be filling on the roster was not noted. In his post-game conference, Joe Maddon made mention that Guyer is being called up to add more right-handed depth to the roster. It doesn’t look as though he’d be filling in for a somewhat ailing Desmond Jennings.

Tampa Bay is scheduled to take on the Yankees tonight at the new Yankee Stadium, at 7:10. However, there is a very good chance that the game could be, in the least, delayed by a couple of hours because of rain. Hey, that’s a first, innit?

Assuming that the game does take place, Rays ace James Shields (5-0, 3.05 ERA) will attempt to improve his record against the Yankees to 5-0, following his opening day no decision. Since his opening day kerfuffle, Shields has been very good, giving up only eight runs in 36.1 innings of work, while striking out 36 and walking nine. He’s also been able to keep his WHIP at a low 1.23. With a win tonight (cough…assuming there’s a game) Shields could tie the franchise record by winning his first six decisions.

If the past holds true, the Rays can expect to see Nova paint the high inside (or outside vs. lefties) corner of the plate. Courtesy of Baseball IQ

On the flip side of things, Ivan Nova (3-1, 5.58 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Yankees. The Rays have not had much success against Nova in the past, hitting .170 against the right handed pitcher. They’ve hit only two home runs against Nova, while striking out 10 times, and walking four. There is a caveat: Nova hasn’t had the hottest of seasons thus far, posting a 5.58 ERA/19 ER/6 HR/9 BB/28 SO line in 30.2 innings of work. Nova has also given up 11 runs in 11 innings of work spanning his last two starts. His opponents are hitting .341 against him, and the Rays have the tools to touch him up for runs.

Nova hasn’t exactly pounded the strike zone against the Rays, by any stretch of the imagination, with only 41% of his pitches finding the zone over the course of his career, against Tampa Bay. Also Nova has only lasted six innings, on average, per start in 2012. All this is to say, if Tampa Bay can work the count and force Nova to pitch in the zone, they could force mistakes and find themselves on base.

As was expected, Desmond Jennings will not appear in the lineup following a left knee strain Sunday. Matt Joyce, who’s a bit under the weather himself, will take his spot in LF, with Ben Zobrist in RF. Jennings is still listed on the active roster, yet remains day to day.

Finally, Marc Topkin has tweeted that something is afoot as, “Guyer is on way to New York to join(the) Rays but not to replace Jennings, so something else is brewing. May know more after game.” The starting lineup is below. As always, Let’s Go Rays!

Tampa Bay Rays (19-11) Starting Lineup:
Zobrist RF
Upton CF
Pena 1B
Joyce LF
Scott DH
Keppinger 3B
Rhymes 2B
Rodriguez SS
Molina C
Shields RHP

This Piece on Attendance Poses LOL’s and Nothing More

You know, I typically really like DRaysBay. I feel as though they usually do a really good job analyzing the data supporting the nuts and bolts surrounding the Rays. Every now and again I find myself vehemently disagreeing with what they have to say. My affect is especially so when they are making arguments concerning a Rays move to Tampa. This too, is one of those times.

DRaysBay recenty posted a piece (re-posed below) titled, “Are the Blue Seats Suppressing Home Runs?” which asserts that the number of home runs to center field is directly related to the number of fans at the Trop on any given night. I feel as though that this is just another piece of useless fodder trying to find any reason at all how the attendance issues might be effecting play on the field. Sure, I’ll concede that it affects the players mindsets, but that wasn’t the gist of the DRaysBay piece in the first place. I seriously doubt that the distance of Luke Scott’s homer to center last week was what it was because only nine to ten thousand fans were in attendance. I’m almost certain that neither Luke Scott, or any other Ray says, “Sigh…there are less than twenty-five thousand fans in the seats tonight, I may as well waive the white flag and submit to the center field wall.” Is it alarming that homers may not be jumping out of the park at a greater clip? Of course. Does this issue elicit further inquiry? Surely. However, this means to an end seems preposterous.

In the end, his non-objective piece doesn’t take into consideration of how the ball jumps out of other parks that may have attendance issues, nor does it take into consideration of simple physics that may determine the flight trajectory of a ball. I can all but guarantee that the decision to bring the OF walls in at Citi Field in the off-season was not predicated on the number of fans (or lack thereof) walking through the gate. Personally, I think the comments at the end of the piece speak volumes. You can read the piece, including the comments, here. Otherwise, the original piece, sans comments, is below.

Are the Blue Seats Suppressing Home Runs?

By: FreeZorilla on May 7, 2012 12:42 AM EDT

On Sunday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times had a blurb that caught my attention claiming that Tropicana Field has turned into a dead zone in centerfield turning would-be home runs into outs:

The other reason is the number of balls going out of it. The Rays seem convinced that for some reason, well-struck balls are not carrying to centerfield as they should, drives last week by Matt Joyce and Luke Scott the latest examples after the team noticed it last season. Ideas have been tossed out, and some looked into, such as the temperature (lower with fewer people?), humidity and air-conditioning currents.

There is some merit to the claim: From 2005-10, 10.7 percent of the homers hit at the Trop by all teams went to centerfield (112 of 1,046) and 30.4 percent from left-center to right-center (318). In 2011-12, entering Saturday, 3.8 percent (7 of 187) had gone to center and 20.9 percent (39) to left-center and right-center. (The only one to center this year was the Scott ball Seattle’s Michael Saunders knocked over the fence.) “I think it’s real,” hitting coach Derek Shelton said. “I guess the wind’s blowing in all the time.”

Looking back from 2008 through the present, Rays hitters have only hit 21 balls out to straightaway centerfield at the Trop led by Carlos Pena’s seven blasts.

Pena 7
Longoria 5
Upton 4
Rodriguez 2
Zobrist 1
Scott 1
CC 1

Was there any relationship between the number of home runs to centerfield and the number of blue seats that were showing up to any given game? The attendance from 2008-2012 can be broken into the following quartiles:

 

Quartile Attendance # of HR to CF
Q1 15597.75 2
Q2 20929.5 9
Q3 28570.75 5
Q4 49197 5

Prior to Luke Scott’s glove assisted home run, Carlos Pena’s June 2010 blast against the Blue Jays was the only Rays home run to centerfield with fewer than 15,597 fans in attendance which is representative of 25% of the Rays games from 2008-present. It’s not as ominous as it sounds, because the 2nd quartile had the highest incidence with nine home runs. And if you look at the median of 28,57 fans, there actually was one more home run with fewer fans than more fans.

To get a larger sample I looked at all home runs hit by the Rays to any field from 2008-present and got the following results.

Quartile Fans HRs
Q1 15597.75 86
Q2 20929.5 98
Q3 28570.75 91
Q4 49197 93

It’s a surprisingly similar result with Q2 being the highest home run total, Q1 the lowest and Q1+Q2 = Q3+Q4. If you are of the belief that somewhere between 15,597 and 20,929 fans in attendance optimizes the Rays potential for home runs, I’ve got a shortstop that hits high velocity fastballs better than low velocity that I’d like to sell you. Its fashionable to blame the blue seats for a lot of things, the sapping of power should not be one of them. Now who wants to volunteer to do the air current analysis?

Rays Lose 9-5 to the A’s; A Game Synopsis As A Series of Tweets (Updated with News On Jennings Injury)

According to Joe Maddon, Jennings injury occurred in the first inning when he slid (pictured above) home, head first, on a Jeff Keppinger sac-fly. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

May 7 Update: Leftfielder Desmond Jennings was pulled in the second inning of yesterday’s game with knee soreness. Jennings had an MRI which revealed the root of his knee soreness: a left knee sprain. The good news is that Jennings will not go on the disabled list, and is expected to be with the Rays on their upcoming eight game road-trip.

It’s been speculated by Rays manager, Joe Maddon, that the injury occurred in the first inning when Jennings slid home, head first, on a Jeff Keppinger sac-fly.

According to the Tampa Bay Times Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, “Maddon said if Jennings can’t play Tuesday, more than likely it’ll be Matt Joyce in left, B.J. Upton in center and Ben Zobrist in right.”

We live tweeted the game today. May as well kill two birds with one stone, and use that series of tweets as the game synopsis. Enjoy.

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Line score, courtesy of Yahoo Sports.

First Inning:
And just like that, runners on second and third after two consecutive Milone walks, two steals, and a passed ball.
#Keppinger with a bases loaded sac-fly to drive in #Jennings. #Rays jump out early 1-0 in the first with two on and one out. #LukeScott AB.
#LukeScott HBP to re-load the bases with only one out.
#Joyce drives in two on a line drive to RF. #Rays up 4-0. Runners on the corners with two outs. #Jimenez AB.
After 40 pitches by #Milone, and four #Rays runs, the #A’s finally get out of the first on a Jimenez DP. #Rays strand one RISP.
Whoops, that was one out. Now the inning is over.

Second Inning:
#Moore with his fourth K on a beautiful changeup. #Rays still up 4-0, now in the middle of the second.
Defensive change with #Johnson in LF, and #Rhymes at 2nd. No word why #Jennings was pulled out of the game just yet.

Third Inning:
After getting the first two outs, #Moore looks shaky, giving up two runs. Runners on the corners with two outs. #Moores pitch count over 50.
#Moore gives up a 3-1, three-run blast to left. #A’s take the lead, 5-4.
#ElliotJohnson puts an end to that threat by grounding into a DP to end the inning. #Rays still down by one, 5-4.
@CorkGaines one wonders if they may have pulled him as precautionary move akin to pulling #BJUpton the other day. Keep him fresh for Tues.
#Jennings pulled b/c of left knee soreness. Precautionary move, akin to #Upton’s early exit a few days ago?
@CorkGaines they just did…left knee soreness. Mind you it took a couple of innings for news on BJ too.

Fifth Inning:
#A’s score another on a #JohnnyGomes RBI double to score Taylor.
A #Moore wild pitch moves the runners to second and third with two outs.
Two more runs on another double. #A’s up 8-4. #Moore getting pulled with a 100+ pitch count. He looked great in the 1 and 2nd innings.
Sinker baller, #BurtBadenhop in with two outs and one on in the fifth.
Now #Badenhop advances the runner on a wild pitch, but then induces a groundout on the very next pitch. On to the #Rays half of the fifth.
#BJUpton with a blast to the section 141/143 exit in left. #Rays now down by three. Could they eek it out?!
#LukeScott pops out to CF, ends the inning with #JeffKeppinger on first.

Sixth Inning:
Beautiful snag by #Rhymes to get the first out in the sixth, and a nice play by #Pena and #Badenhop to get out number two.
#Badenhop looks good after his wild pitch, getting four straight groundouts.
#Keppinger pops out to right-center to end the inning, stranding two base runners along the way. #D’oh!!!

Seventh Inning:
#WadeDavis on in relief of #Badenhop after Burt gets four batters in a row in the fifth and sixth innings.
After #Badenhop retires four in a row, #Davis promptly walks and gives up a hit to the first two batters in the seventh. #JohnnyGomes up now
Now a #Davis wild pitch. All three #Rays pitchers have WP’s on the day.
#Davis gets #JohnnyGomes on a curveball on the inside corner. Runners on second and third with one out.
#BrandonInge with his fourth RBI of the day on a sac-fly to bring home #Reddick. #A’s again with a four run lead, 9-5 in the seventh.
After two walks, a hit, and a sac-fly, #Davis FINALLY gets out of the seventh.
@JoseCanseco humility is your best quality. (In response to a Canseco tweet)
#Pena walks after a 10 pitch battle. #Upton and #Los on first and second with two outs, and Kep up next. #A’s pitching change.
#Keppinger pops out to right-center to end the inning, stranding two base runners along the way. #D’oh!!!

Eighth Inning:
#WadeDavisLooksLikeDogCrapToday.
@TBTimesRays2 Not too shabby, the last two nights. (In response to a TBT tweet about the attendance)
#JoshReddick looks like #HillarySwank. Deep thoughts…
@CorkGaines Apparently you don’t have an affinity for Hillary Swank.
#Davis works his way out of a two on jam. On to the #Rays half of the eighth.
#Rays again strand two two base runners as #ElliotJohnson watches strike three pass him by. On to the ninth.

Ninth Inning:
#CesarRamos on in the ninth.
Cue the #SportsCenter music for that #SeanRod play!
1-2-3 inning for #CesarRamos. Three more outs for the #Rays.
A #Rhymes K and and #Upton foul out…#Rays are down to their last out.
….And a #Pena pop-out to RF ends the game. #Rays lose their third series of the year on a 9-5 loss to the A’s in front of 24,000 @ #Trop.

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Offensive box score, courtesy of Yahoo Sports
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Pitching box score, courtesy of Yahoo Sports

Gomes Out and Ramos In, Rays Vs. A’s 5/6/12 Starting Lineup, Etc.

Brandon Gomes (1-1, 7.71 ERA) was optioned to triple-A Durham after last nights tough 4-3 loss to the A’s. Earlier today is was announced that Cesar Ramos (2-1, 1 Sv, 1.69 ERA in Durham) would get the call up in Gomes place. Gomes posted a 4.2 IP/7.71 ERA/4 H/4 ER line, with six walks and six strikeouts in the five games he appeared in in his most recent stint with the Rays. Ramos has appeared in 12 games, so far in 2012 with the Durham Bulls, and has a very good 1.69 ERA. Ramos has given up seven hits, including three home runs, while striking out 15 in 16 innings of work. It’s not known whether Ramos will be available today.

The Rays go into today’s game 0.5 games ahead of the Orioles with a 19-9 record. They will attempt to take the rubber game of this three game set against the A’s, ahead of their series against the Evil Empire in New York on Tuesday.

Matt Moore (1-1, 4.20) will try to put a tepid April behind him today. Moore gave up 14 runs on 32 hits, including five home runs, in 30 innings of work throughout the month of April. He is a notoriously slow starter in the month of April. Though I’m not certain if only six days removed from the fourth month of the year would really make a noticeable difference in his performance, his past numbers speak for themselves and far be it from me to discredit those stats. Moore is averaged six innings per start throughout April, and he will need to be much more efficient today. To compensate for a taxed bullpen following last nights marathon, Moore will need to work into (at least) the seventh inning.

Rookies starter Tommy Milone (3-2, 3.69 ERA) will toe the rubber for the A’s. Milone has posted some good numbers in the five games and 31 innings he’s appeared this season. He’s given up 13 earned runs on 25 hits, including four home runs and seven walks, while striking out 18. With an almost three-to-one K/BB ratio, and a 0.3 WAR, the Rays may have their hands full today. Milone is primarily a fastball/change-up pitcher. Last night we all saw what well placed fastballs, peppered with a few good change-ups, could do to Tampa Bay. To the Rays credit, they were able to get 11 hits and three walks off of the A’s. However, they left 10 on base last night, including a great many RISP. There is a positive; Milone, like Moore, is averaging six innings per start. That is to say, he hasn’t been the pillar of efficiency in 2012. If the Rays can get to him early while also working the count, they could knock him out early, forcing the A’s to rely on a tired bullpen of their own. Today’s starting lineup is below. Let’s get that sixth series win of the season! As always, Let’s Go Rays!

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Rays starting lineup, 5/6/12: Jennings LF, Upton CF, Pena 1B, Keppinger 3B, Scott DH, Rodriguez SS, Joyce RF, Gimenez C, Johnson 2B, Moore LHP. Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Rays

 

Gomes Expected to Be Sent Back Down to triple-A Durham

As per a series of tweets (below) from Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, it’s expected that Tampa Bay will send reliever Brandon Gomes back to triple-A Durham. It’s speculated that neither Dane De La Rosa or Alex Cobb, will be called back up to help out with a taxed Rays bullpen. Who does that leave; Archer? Lueke? Maybe they could call the Garfoose out if retirement.

“Now Rays do have a decision – Gomes has been optioned to AAA, a fresh arm will be added on Sunday. With bullpen taxed, Gomes optioned to triple-A: With their bullpen taxed, the Rays optioned RHP Brandon Gomes to triple-A Durham. Though Rays (are) not saying who they will call up from Durham, (it) can’t be Cobb, who threw 88 pitches Friday, and likely won’t be De La Rosa (34).”