The Power of the Zimm Bear Compels Thee, Rays vs Le Tigre

Desmond Jennings up close and personal with the fans after catching a foul fly ball during the third inning. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

The Rays certainly aren’t up to snuff yet, offensively speaking that is. But if last night’s 4-2 win against Verlander and Co. is an indication of things to come, the clouds may be parting. It wasn’t only the showing at the plate that had me feeling encouraged, it was the overall performance. Don’t get me wrong, besting Justin Verlander for the second time of the season is rad. Yet there was more to this win than just bashing the ball. The Rays had a Joie de vivre about them last night…some extra pep in their step.

First, David Price looked great. Price gave up two runs (both earned) on five hits while walking one. He, sadly, exited the game in the seventh with lower back tightness, after throwing 78 pitches, 55 of which for strikes (71% strike to ball ratio). Jake McGee came on in the eighth and Fernando Rodney in the ninth in relief of Price. They both preserved his win in dominant fashion, with neither allowing a hit or a walk, while striking out three. “Thanks for all the good wishes…I’ll be fine!! I’ll be back on the mound in 5 days!!!” said Price in a tweet following the game.

The Rays defense also looked stellar…god, it feels good to say that! The “D” was able to turn three crisp double plays behind Price, while Desmond Jennings made two incredible catches in foul territory. One of those plays found him flipping over the wall into the Game 162 party deck.

Ben Zobrist continued to be a monster at the plate, reaching base safely three times on two hits and a walk, including a one run blast to right, in the fourth. If hitting is contagious, then Jennings has caught what Zobrist, Elliot Johnson, and Jeff Keppinger has. Jennings went 2-4, smashing two blasts to section 141 in left-field. That infection will hopefully spread to ‘Los and BJ Upton. Though the Rays went 1-5 with men in scoring position, it was encouraging to see Pena beat out an error in the first, then get moved over to third on a Upton single. Pena was finally driven home on a Luke Scott ground out. It would have been nice to see the Rays drive in Elliot Johnson who was on third with no outs, following a lead-off double and a wild pitch in the seventh. Against Verlander and Octavio Dotel, an extra run would have been huge.

Verlander threw a good game. Yet similar to the Tigers with Price, the Rays were able to pounce on three fastballs that he left in the zone. Subtract those three meatballs, and we’re talking about a different story. Verlander pounded to outside corner with his fastball and changeup, while peppering the zone with his Slider and curve. Verlander was able to induce 17 swinging strikes, primarily on his changeup.

The Rays have two more games against the Tigers in their season series, tonight and tomorrow. Tonight’s game marks the return of three Rays pitchers; Jeremy Hellickson and Kyle Farnsworth from the DL, and Joel Peralta following his eight game suspension. Yes kids, the Rays killer pitching staff just got even better. Good god, think how deadly the back end of the pen will be with McGee, Peralta, Farnsworth, and Rodney.

Tonight, Jeremy Hellickson (4-3, 3.45 ERA) will take the mound against Rick Porcello (5-5, 4.71 ERA). Porcello is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in three career starts against the Rays. A fairly dependable pitcher, Porcello has given up four or more earned runs in six of his 15 starts this season. Porcello has given up the lot share of runs and RBI when he’s behind, so the Rays are going to have to get ahead of him early in the count. As a fastball/slider/changeup pitcher, I’d imagine that the Rays would be aggressive early in the count. Here’s to hope that his precautionary stint on the DL has done Helly some good. He’s going to need to put up a David Price-like start tonight.

Rays Starting Lineup 6/30/12

Jennings LF
Pena 1B
Upton CF
Scott DH
Zobrist RF
Conrad 3B
Lobaton C
Johnson SS
Rhymes 2B
Hellickson RHP

Rays 6/29/12 Starting Lineup

The Rays will try to snap a four game losing streak tonight at the Trop. The pitching matchup? Verlander vs. Price. Oof.

Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF
Pena 1B
Upton CF
Scott DH
Zobrist RF
Conrad 3B
Molina C
Johnson SS
Rhymes 2B
Price LHP

In unrelated news, outfielder extraordinaire, “Super” Sam Fuld took on field batting practice for first time today. Fuld mentioned that it felt great, and that he might start a rehab assignment in a week. There still isn’t a timetable for Longo’s return, nor has he returned to baseball activities yet. He has accelerated his workouts over the past few days though and noted that rest was right thing.

Oh Rays…Why You No Produce More?

The game last was hard to watch. It was another one of those games, where you were nervous when the opposing team had men on first and third, because you had that gut feeling that a run was going to cross the plate. That same nervous feeling was felt when Rays had men on first and third, because you had the sickening feeling that they’d do nothing with the opportunity. Those fears are well placed.

Coming off of the Royals series where the Rays went 4-28 with men in scoring position, Tampa Bay again couldn’t get men across the plate when given the opportunity. The Rays went 1-6 wRISP on Thursday, stranding seven on base. I’d argue that Carlos Pena was responsible for some of the most frustrating doing nothing wRISP situations, by striking out twice with men in scoring position and two outs. Let’s speak hypothetically a bit, shall we? Had ‘Los gotten a base hit in the fifth, Elliot Johnson would have easily scored from second, and the difference is cut by one. Then had ‘Los gotten an extra base hit, or even a single, in the seventh, both Conrad and Jennings score, inevitably tying things. Now, I’m hesitant to put all of the blame on Pena. After all, Jose Lobaton went 0-2 with men in scoring position as well. However, let’s be honest; who really expects Lobaton do be productive? I mean, the sheer fact that Lobaton is producing more than he was projected to, is a miracle in and of itself. The Rays passed on Kotchman, and re-signed Pena, for production purposes. And in the last month and a half, ‘Los hasn’t been so hot. Then again, Desmond Jennings and BJ Upton haven’t been too hot in their own rite, especially lately.

The numbers speak for themselves, so let’s take a peak at those for a moment. For this, we’ll take a look at who could, or should, be considered the most the most productive players on the active roster: Brooks Conrad, Jeff Keppinger, Carlos Pena, Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Elliot Johnson, BJ Upton, Desmond Jennings, and Luke Scott. We’ll look at their production over the last seven days, and in high leverage situations.

Rays Production Over the Last Seven Days

The Rays in High Leverage Situations

In short, with the exception of Ben Zobrist, the players that have kept the Rays afloat over the last seven games, by driving in, and scoring runs, are the ones that more typically get on base to set things up for Pena, Upton, Jennings, and Scott. Yet, with the exception of Luke Scott who just returned from the DL, the trio above have been fairly quiet over the last seven games, if not longer. I say fairly, because Pena hit homers in the Philly and Washington series. He was also more productive, reaching base safely and scoring runs up until last week.

Brooks Conrad, Jeff Keppinger, and Ben Zobrist should be given gold medals for stepping up and putting the ball in play. Without them, and Elliot Johnson who has consistently put the ball in play over the long run, I fear that we’d see more shutouts or less competitive games. Please, don’t get me wrong, I love me some Carlos Pena. But, when you look at the May and June drop off compounded with how non-clutch he has been, you have to wonder how or if things might be different had the Rays made an off-season trade for Mark “19 HR/36 R/53 RBI” Trumbo.

 

Well, Someone’s Gotta Go…Right? Who Are We Going to Say Goodbye to When Joyce, Farnsworth, and Scott Return?

It goes without saying that with the imminent return of both DH Luke Scott, and reliever Kyle Farnsworth in the very near future, some folks have got to go in order to make room for them on the roster. The question begs: who will be optioned or designated for assignment? What’s more, are there any players that might just be released all together? This may just be the best problem that the Rays front office has been faced with this season.

I’d think that it’s pretty much a given that Brandon Gomes will be sent back down to Triple-A when Matt Joyce is reactivated. True, Gomes has put up decent numbers with the Rays, but he is here to “fill in” for Joel Peralta while he serves out the rest of his eight game suspension. Besides, he’s filling Joyce’s spot on the roster. In the end, Gomes has performed exceedingly well in Triple-A this year, and his numbers have, undoubtedly, improved between this year and last. However, he certainly isn’t an essential cog in the pen…at least at the moment. I’d assume that he’s aware of why he’s on the roster, and I doubt that he’s sweating a move back to Durham.

With the recent acquisition, and success, of Brooks Conrad, the Rays have been put in a precarious position. The Rays have seven or eight (counting Ben Zobrist) infielders on the roster at the moment. With the exceptions of Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria, the remaining six infielders are multifaceted, in that they (obviously in an ideal world) can play anywhere on the diamond. With more infield depth, something tells me that one of those players will be sent back down when either Scott or Farnsworth are reactivated. We can assume with 99.99% certainty that Zobrist, Pena, and Longoria aren’t going anywhere. I also don’t see Elliot Johnson, Sean Rodriguez, or Jeff Keppinger going anywhere, especially with the offensive output that Johnson and Keppinger have offered the Rays. That leaves Conrad and Will Rhymes.

Prior to the acquisition of Conrad, it was assumed that Rhymes would be sent back down to Triple-A at some point. Recall that Rhymes was called up from Durham when Longoria was sent to the DL. In his time with the Rays, Rhymes has posted a .221 BA/.286 OBP/.242 SLG/.528 OPS with seven RBI and runs in 95 at-bats. Yet, Rhymes has committed seven errors split between his time spent at second and third. I would add however, that Rhymes has a .970 fielding percentage, which is 11 percentage points higher than Brooks Conrad. The beauty of Rhymes lies within his ability to hit right-handed pitching, posting a .284 BA/.333 OBP/.245 SLG/.533 OPS line. It also bears mentioning that the lot share of Rhymes production has come against righties, including all of his hits, runs, and RBI.

Conrad, on the other hand, has received a fair amount of fanfare in the few games that he’s played with the Rays, and for good reason. Conrad has driven in six runs on five hits, including two doubles and a home run. Yet the question begs, is his success fleeting? Over his career, Conrad has posted a .218 BA/.292 OBP/.418 SLG/.710 OPS line. Those numbers aren’t very good.

When comparing Rhymes and Conrad over their career, we see that they have played an equitable number of games in the bigs; Rhymes with 110 and Conrad 102. Rhymes has put up better numbers in that time, both offensively and defensively. But Conrad is a switch hitter who does better from the right side, and he has a bit more pop in his bat. Rhymes hits more grounders and line drives. Conrad has a significantly higher strikeout percentage (29.7% vs 10.3%) than Rhymes. But, he also has a higher walk percentage (8.8% vs 7.5%) and a higher extra base hit percentage (9.2% vs 5.1%) than Rhymes.

With all of that said, I think Rhymes will be sent back to Triple-A, but could be a Ray over the long-term. Conrad seems like he’ll be here until he’s no longer needed. With Joyce’s reactivation looming, I’d think that Zobrist would be spending more time at second with Keppinger at third. In the meantime, it would be assumed that Maddon is going to squeeze as much production out of Conrad as he can while he’s hot.

Then there’s Hideki Matsui. I respect Matsui for what he’s done in the past, but I’m not certain if there’s much left in the well. To put it bluntly, he’s hit like crap in his 80 at-bats with the Rays. Matsui has posted a .162 BA/.225 OBP/.257 SLG/.522 OPS line with 12 hits, six runs and RBI, one double, and two home runs. He’s also striking out almost three times more than he’s walking. Those, uh…aren’t very good numbers for a DH. Hideki has seen much more playing time since Scott was placed on the DL, yet his production hasn’t increased. Plus, who knows how long his knees can stay healthy. With Brandon Allen doing exceedingly well in Durham, there really isn’t a place for Matsui when Scott returns. I’d imagine that Matsui would be, in the least, sent back to Triple-A. There are those that think he should be released from his contract. And to be honest, I totally see the validity in giving Matsui the old heave-ho.

In the end, this is just speculation by someone with access to Baseball-reference.com and Fangraphs.com. We won’t know what’s going to happen until, well, it happens. Nevertheless, I’d love to hear what you all have to say on the subject. Comment away.