Rays vs. Royals, 6/26/12 (starting lineup included)

‘Los pulls a Sean Rod. Carlos Pena collides with Brayan Pena in the first inning. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)

Ugh. Two more errors, 0-5 wRISP, four left on base…SSDD. I’m not quite sure what to say. The Rays really need to win today, limp back to the Trop, and try to put something together in their upcoming seven game home stand against the Tigers and the Yankees. The errors, again, bit the Rays in the ass last night. They have now committed more errors than any other team in the AL with 64. However, the lack of offense inevitably took the wind out of their sails.

But that’s nothing new.

Tampa Bay started June on a positive note. But, it’s become obvious that the peak in production at the beginning of the month has leveled out. That the Rays have a higher OBP than their opponents, in June, seems to be the only real positive production stat. All that really tells me is that the Rays are reaching base more often. They’ve out walked their opponents by 19. However, they’ve been outscored, out hit, out slugged, and generally bested across the line.

June has given us flashes of what the Rays are capable of. However they have cooled down considerably. And the addition of Luke Scott and Matt Joyce to the DL has only exacerbated the lack of production conundrum. It would be easy to point the finger of blame on the big boppers on the roster. Consider though that Jennings, Pena, Upton, Johnson, and Zobrist have accounted for over 48% of the RBI and over 60% of the runs scored in the month of June. It’s more of a problem that the team, as a whole, cannot consistently produce…especially in those pivotal situations with men in scoring position.

Note: You may want to press play on the Soundcloud player (below) prior to reading the next paragraph.

[soundcloud url=”http://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/16480666″ iframe=”true” /]

The errors have again hampered the Rays. Consider that the starters have given up 17 unearned runs while the defense has committed 15 errors. See the chart for the breakdown. Four of those errors alone have counted for Archer’s three unearned runs. Imagine if half of those errors were never committed, and half of those unearned runs were never given up. We could be talking about a different story.

In short, Moore has got to give the Rays a good start today, and the Rays will have to give him some run support.

Rays 6/26/12 Starting Lineup

Upton CF
Pena 1B
Keppinger DH
Conrad 3B
Zobrist RF
Rodriguez 2B
Jennings LF
Molina C
Johnson SS
Moore LHP

 

A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words, Rays vs Royals 6/26/12 (starting lineup included)

The outcome of last night’s tough 8-0 loss at the hands of Luke Hochevar, a career 5.33 ERA pitcher, who was also 1-2 with a 7.25 ERA against the Rays prior to last night, was heartbreaking. However a few people quelled my worried mind by reminding me of a few things.

First, the offense went 0-7 wRISP while leaving six on base. That being said, would it really have mattered whether the Royals scored one or one hundred runs? Not really. Also, with the exception of his five run, seven hit third inning, Cobb did a good job holding things down. And you’ve really got to give it to Cobb for taking one for the team. Cobb gave a tired Rays bullpen some well needed rest by going the distance…even when getting hammered for eight earned runs. The Rays ultimately played like a team that was very tired, and can you blame them? They played 27 innings of baseball in the span of 30 hours, then arrived in KC early yesterday morning.

Yesterday brought at least some good news for the Rays. In his Rehab stint in Durham, Luke Scott drove in four runs and scored three times in a 14-10 victory against the Buffalo Bison. Scott hit two homers and a sacrifice fly on the day. Scott could be back as early as tomorrow. I wonder where that would find Hideki Matsui upon Scott’s return? Onward to tonight’s game.

Bruce Chen (6-6, 4.81 ERA) will take on Chris Archer (0-1, 1.50 ERA) in what could be the young right-handed pitcher’s last start for the Rays for the foreseeable future. It would be criminal if the Rays could not give Archer any run support tonight. Chen is 4-2 with a 3.75 ERA against the Rays in 11 starts. Beyond that, what is Chen capable of? Well my friends, take a gander at a few charts and graphs below.

Chen’s numbers (courtesy of ESPN.com)
Chen by situation (courtesy of ESPN.com)
Horizontal movement by pitch type vs. lefties (courtesy of Fangraphs.com)
Horizontal movement by pitch type vs. righties (courtesy of Fangraphs.com)

In conclusion, with fairly equal splits between righties and lefties, plus his propensity to give up three or more runs per game (Chen’s given up three or more runs in eight of his 15 starts), the Rays have an opportunity to take their frustrations out on a pitcher that tends to leave fastball’s and slider’s up in the zone.

Rays 6/26/12 Starting Lineup

Upton CF
Pena 1B
Keppinger 3B
Matsui DH
Zobrist RF
Rodriguez SS
Jennings LF
Conrad 2B
Lobaton C
Archer RHP

Goodbye Philly, Hello BBQ Country (6/25/12 starting lineup included)

This best illustrates the Rays doubleheader sweep of the Phillies Sunday. Sean Rodriguez collides with Philadelphia Phillies catcher Brian Schneider as he scores in the sixth inning. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr)

Watching the Rays bounce back from a three game losing streak, with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies Sunday, was a thing of beauty. Those two huge wins offered so much to be excited about. Let’s break it down a bit.

All told, 24 Rays reached base safely on 10 hits and 14 walks, including three off of Cole Hamels and three off of Cliff Lee. That also includes five consecutive walks in the top of the eighth in the second game. Those five walks drove in two insurance runs.

Tampa Bay went 3-10 wRISP in the second game. But, it was very encouraging to see the Rays drive in three runs with two outs, while not giving up any two out runs to the Phillies. And though you’d like to see more production out of the batters in the top of the lineup, the batters at the bottom of the lineup should be applauded for going five-for-nine with four walks. They also drove in six runs while scoring five.

I’ve also got to hand it to the pen for holding things down in the second game. Cesar Ramos, Brandon Gomes, and JP Howell, combined, posted a 6.1 IP/1 H/0 R/4 BB/4 K line. Going without a formal starter, especially up against Cliff Lee, seemed like a rather bold move on Joe Maddon’s part. It, however, worked out for the best. Not only did Ramos, Gomes, and Howell shut down the Phillies offense, but the Rays were able to BABIP Lee and Co. to death. A part of me has to chuckle that the Rays were able to stave off two Phillies victories, even though the odds were (literally) against them.

The Rays went 5-5 in intraleague play this year, having an especially hard time with the Nationals and the Mets. Suffice to say, I’m glad that’s over. They’ll match up against the Royals for the next three games, in Kansas City.

The Royals pitching hasn’t been very sharp of late. Their opponents have posted a .291 BAA/.383 OBP/.452 SLG/.835 OPS against, while scoring 43 runs on 76 hits, including eight homers in the last seven games. What’s more, the Royals pitching has given up 241 runs on 174 hits and 87 walks, while their opponents have posted a .272 BAA/.361 OBP/.394 SLG/.755 OPS line against with men in scoring position. If they Rays can carry the momentum over from yesterday’s victories, as well as apply offensive pressure on the Royals, there’s a good chance that they’ll be able to drive in runs. This series could be just what the Rays struggling offense needs to snap them out of the production rut they’ve been in lately.

Rays 6/25/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Pena 1B
Upton CF
Matsui DH
Zobrist RF
Conrad 3B
Rodriguez 2B
Molina C
Johnson SS
Cobb RHP

Rays vs. Phils, 6/24/12 (Updated for game numero dos)

I won’t indulge you in all of the gory details of last night’s game, I think we’re all familiar with what happened and how. Today is another day. However, there are a few good things and a few not so good things that need to be focused on before we move on to today’s double-header.

The Good

-Jeff Keppinger going five-for-five, scoring a run and driving in three certainly didn’t suck. Kepp was practically responsible for half of last night’s offense. What a way to make a mark following his stint on the DL. Can you imagine how helpful his bat could have been hadn’t he been hit by that errant, yet fateful, foul ball?

-Jose “The Wolf” Lobaton had another good day at the plate, reaching base safely three times and scoring a run. I’m really starting to like Lobaton, especially with how he’s performed at the plate of late. Just look how well he’s done at the plate in May (though he only had six official at bats), June, and the last seven days. More on him later.

The Wolf! (courtesy of ESPN.com)

-I don’t care that Ben Zobrist has a .234 batting average, that will improve. I’m a big fan of his OBP, as well as his ever improving slugging percentage. I’m also a big fan of BenZo going two-for-five at the plate last night, scoring two of the six runs.

-Chris Archer, can do no wrong this week. Not only did he have a solid start Wednesday, but Maddon put him in as a pinch runner for Lobaton, and he eventually scored the tying run in the ninth.

-Papelbon blew a save!

The Not So Good

-Carlos Pena (1-5, 2 K), Desmond Jennings (0-4, 2 K), BJ Upton (1-4, 2 K)

-The Rays were horrendous wRISP, going 5-15 while stranding 12 on the base.

-Bases loaded with no outs in the eighth, and…the Rays drive in only one run.

-Three runs given up with two outs.

-Yet another error…sigh.

The New What Next

Today should be particularly interesting with a double header featuring the Phillies two best starters, Cole Hamels (10-3, 3.25 ERA) and Cliff Lee (0-3, 3.48 ERA). Tampa Bay is 9-14 against left-handed starters, and oh yeah…Both Hamels and Lee are lefties. D’oh! The Rays will counter with David Price (9-4, 3.08 ERA) and a starter to be named. It seems as though they’ll rely on the pen to start the second game, with LHP Cesar Ramos getting the call. The Rays brought up Alex Torres who can go deeply into games if needed.

Tampa Bay is hitting all of .245 against Cliff Lee, including six homers. They’ve also had relative success against Hamels, hitting .291. Both pitchers have been post-season thorns in the sides of the Rays, but that isn’t to say that they’re infallible. Both Molina and Pena have had success against Lee, and Zobrist and Upton have had success against Hamels.

David “7.0 IP/4 H/1 ER/3 BB/8 K/112 pitches (76 for strikes)” Price

Game One: Tampa Bay won game numero uno of this double header against the Phillies by a score of 3-2. David Price had a solid seven inning outing, giving up only one run on four hits, while walking three and striking out eight. Ten Rays reached base safely on four hits and six walks, ultimately winning the game thanks to a three run, Carlos Pena, blast to right field in the eighth. It’s a bit frustrating to see the Rays leave four on base, yet it was nice to see them work good at bats against Hamels. Fernando Rodney shut the Phillies down in the ninth for his 21st save of the year. Cesar Ramos (1-0, 2.08 ERA) will butt heads against Cliff Lee in game two. We’re just now waiting on the starting lineup. We’ll post that when it’s available.

Game Numero Dos Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF
Pena 1B
Upton CF
Keppinger 3B
Zobrist RF
Rodriguez SS
Conrad 2B
Lobaton C
Ramos P

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The Minimalist Edition Part Deux (6/23/12 starting lineup included)

Last Three Games

Errors committed: 3
Runs given up because of errors or poor defense: 4
Runs given up with two outs: 7
wRISP: 6 for 28, including two bases loaded situations last night where only one run was driven in
Outscored: 12-9

The Last Seven Days

At bats: 251
Runs: 32
Hits: 57
Doubles: 10
Triples: 3
Home runs: 5
Runs batted in: 32
Total bases: 88
Walks: 34
Strike outs: 63
Stolen bases: 4
Caught stealing: 1
BA: .227
OBP: .324
SLG: .351
OPS: .675
Top run creators: Carlos Pena (6.5), Ben Zobrist (4.0), Elliot Johnson (3.9), Jose Lobaton (3.3), Jose Molina (3.0), Desmond Jennings (2.3), Drew Sutton (1.9), and BJ Upton (1.7).
It bears mentioning: The leader in the SLG column over the last seven days is Jose Molina who hit a double and a homer in eight at bats. Really?! Jose Molina has out slugged Pena and Zobrist?! To be fair, Zo and Pena have come to the plate (more than) twice as many times, and they do reach base on a more consistent basis. Also, how good has Jose Lobaton been? He, not only, went 5-for-15 with two doubles, three runs, an RBI, and three walks, but his defense is finally coming along. Now he just needs to call a better game.

The New What Next

Alright kids, let’s try this again. The Phillies have changed their pitcher for Game One: Part Deux. The match-up is now James Shields (7-4, 3.72 ERA) vs Kyle Kendrick(2-7, 5.29 ERA). Cliff Lee will pitch in the second game of the double header on Sunday. We like this match-up a bit more. Kendrick has a 1.18% GB/FB ratio, and a 1.76 K/BB ratio. His opponents are posting a .301 BA/.370 OBP/.496 SLG/.866 OPS line against Kendrick, with a .305 BABIP. Not that Shields is pitching above and beyond Kendrick when you compare their overall numbers. But, Shields has started to put things back together in his last two starts, where as Kendrick has now given up five or more earned runs in his last three starts, and five of his 15 starts all told.

Rays 6/23/12 Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF
Pena 1B
Upton CF
Matsui RF
Zobrist 2B
Lobaton C
Keppinger 3B
Johnson SS
Shields RHP

Since last nights game was scratched, we thought that the Nils classic Scratches and Needles might be apropos. Enjoy.

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nz4vp-cu7lI]