Rays vs Rangers, 9/9/12 (Starting lineup included)

ST PETERSBURG, FL – SEPTEMBER 08: : Pitcher Chris Archer #22 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the Texas Rangers during the game at Tropicana Field on September 8, 2012 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Following a disappointing 4-2 loss last night, Tampa Bay will try to bounce back and take the series from Texas in the last game of this three game set. The Rays, arguably, have the upper hand today with Roy Oswalt (4-2, 5.85 ERA) on the mound in place of Matt Harrison. A couple pieces of ephemera before the starting lineup and Noteworthiness.

  • As much as I don’t want to give Carlos Pena credit, especially after the abomination he’s put together this season, he deserves some credit in his caught looking strikeout to end the game. As my buddy Nicky put it, “Put two (hot) dawgs end to end and that is how far outside that pitch was last night.” I’d reckon that that pitch was more like three hotdogs, end-to-end, off of the plate. See the Pitch F/X below:
I can’t hate on that take.
  • But with even the above taken into consideration, it bears mentioning that with next strikeout Pena will tie the team record he set in 2008 of 166. His 165 are the third most in majors. Ouch.
  • You’ve got to hand it to Chris Archer. The kid absolutely dealt last night, posting a 7.0 IP/4 H/2 ER/2 BB/11 K line, though he was sadly left with a no-decision to show for his outing. Archer is the second pitcher in the last 25 years to have 25 strikeouts in his first three career major league starts. Strasburg was the other, in 2010. Archer is the first in the AL, since Leiter accomplished the same feat in 1987 with the Yankees.
Rays 9/9/12 Starting Lineup

Upton CF
Keppinger 3B
Zobrist SS
Longoria DH
Francisco LF
Joyce RF
Roberts 2B
Pena 1B
Molina C
Shields RHP

Noteworthiness: The Rays have posted a .379 BA/.424 OBP/.379 SLG/.804 OPS line against Oswalt in 29 total at-bats. Key Match-ups: Jeff Keppinger (6-15, RBI), Evan Longoria (1-3, BB), Carlos Pena (1-2, BB), BJ Upton (1-3, BB). Desmond Jennings is again out of the lineup due to back tightness, finding Ben Francisco in left field and hitting fifth. With Longoria as DH, Keppinger is back at third and Pena is in at first. Let’s Go Rays!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward, Rays vs. Rangers 9/8/12 (Starting lineup included)

Click the photo above, for video of Ben Zobrist’s huge 11th inning walk-off blast. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times)

Perhaps you were one of the 19,545 paid attendees at last night’s Rays vs. Rangers game. Maybe you watched it in the comforts of your living room. Whatever the case may be, shame on you if you didn’t see Ben Zobrist provide the offensive oomph to end the game; a two run blast to right. I know I’ve said it before and under different circumstances, but the walk-off Rays are indicative of a team that is hungry for a playoff berth. And with that win and an Orioles loss, Tampa Bay is a game closer to where they need to be. Both Jeremy Hellickson and Derek Holland were beasts on the mound last night, as were both the Rays and Rangers bullpens. But ultimately a pair of Mark Lowe mistakes would be the difference between a loss and a huge win.

It bears mentioning that the Rays defense was incredibly solid thanks to Hellickson, Kyle Farnsworth, and Fernando Rodney who largely kept the ball on the ground, and the infielders who incidentally turned a pair of big double plays in the first and second innings respectively. And who was in the mix for both of those pivotal double plays? Ben Zobrist. Can you say team MVP?

With less than 20 games to go, I’m inclined to call Zobrist the team MVP. Zo started the season on a cold streak, posting a .199 BA/.329 OBP/.377 SLG/.706 OPS/.305 wOBA/96 wRC line back in the beginning of June. However since, he’s put up great numbers, posting a .313 BA/.404 OBP/.527 SLG/.931 OPS/.406 wOBA line, with 10 homers. He’s also drawn 43 walks, while striking out only 46 times. Along with Jeff Keppinger, Zobrist has easily been one of the Rays most consistent hitters in 2012. And though he’s bounced around the middle infield and the outfield, which could be the reason he struggled with his fair share of errors prior to the All-Star Break, Zobrist has really settled in at short. Overall, Zobrist has a 4.6 WAR and a .977 fielding percentage. That is to say, he’s more than dependable on the left side of the infield.

Ben Zobrist’s 2012 offensive charts/graphs. (Courtesy of Fangraphs)
I’m excited to see this kid on the mound tonight

Moving forward, tonight should be interesting. David Price has been shelved because of shoulder soreness, so the recently recalled Chris Archer will get the start. I have no qualms with Archer in there. We all saw what kind of stuff he has in his first two major league starts, prior to the All-Star Break. Though he went 0-2 in those two starts, his record had more to do with the lack of offense than anything else. Archer was impressive in those starts, posting a 3.86 ERA/.186 BAA/.250 BABIP/2.34 FIP/10.80 K9/1.54 BB9/7.00 KBB line. He’s also got that the Rangers have never seen him on his side. With Yu Darvish toeing the rubber against, I suspect that this game could be another low scoring affair.

9/8/12 Starting Lineup: Fuld LF, Upton CF, Zobrist SS, Longoria 3B, Joyce RF, Scott DH, Keppinger 1B, Roberts 2B, Molina C, Archer RHP

Noteworthiness: Desmond Jennings was shelved tonight because of lower back stiffness, though we could see him later in the game. Luke Scott will get the DH duties, batting sixth.

Rays 9/7/12 Starting Lineup, Price Injured?! Not Cool

Rays 9/7/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Upton CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Keppinger 1B
Francisco DH
Roberts 2B
Gimenez C
Fuld RF
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness: News just broke that Rays ace, David Price, will miss at least a start because of shoulder soreness. The number of starts he could miss is unknown at the moment, though Rays beat writer, Marc Topkin, has suggested that he shouldn’t miss more than one. Price also tweeted in response to another tweet regarding the injury, “I’m good felt great today!” Chris Archer will get the start in his place tomorrow.

Rays vs Rangers Series Preview, the Ballad of Elliot Johnson, and Other Random Nuggets

The Nostradamus Effect…don’t say we didn’t warn you.

Last night’s game certainly didn’t have the outcome it could or should have, did it? By all accounts, the game would still have been close, but the Rays should have won it by a run. There is a bright side; Tampa Bay took two out of three, and a series win at this point of the season is a must. Those creeping feelings over what should have happened, or could have been, are hard to suppress, aren’t they? Had the Rays won, they’d have ended the night only a half game out of first, not two and a half.

…And so it goes.

I posed the question in yesterday’s Noteworthiness: Why was Elliot Johnson in the game? Sure, understand the logic behind Joe Maddon going with EJ. After all, Roberts needed an off day. However, that’s what today was for. Considering that Johnson made a poor play on Monday, and that this was a rather important game, the choice of Roberts over Johnson seemed simple. I can already imagine what Joe Maddon would say, I’m not going to allow Elliot to be a lightning rod for criticism, yadayadayada. And true, hadn’t they gone 2-7 wRISP, stranding seven on the bags, we may not be having this conversation. Then again, the Yankees went 2-8 wRISP and still won the game. Which brings us back to Elliot Johnson.

Johnson committed 13 errors coming into last night’s game. Too, I think it’s safe to say that he doesn’t turn the best double plays, nor does he consistently throw on line. Johnson made two bumbling plays on the field and showed poor judgment at the plate with two on and one out. Johnson attempted a fateful sac bunt that didn’t advance the runner on second, or bring home Jeff Keppinger who was on third. He was however able to get the second out of the inning. Bunting is a calculated risk in any situation. If you’re attempting to lay down a bunt to the right side of the infield, you’d better make damn sure that you get it past the pitcher. That he didn’t do. It didn’t help that his two atrocious fielding plays (one a throwing error) were directly responsible for three runs. I’ll make it simple: EJ’s fielding numbers are down across the board. He doesn’t need to be in high leverage games, especially in a pennant race. Period.

Credit where it’s due, Johnson did own up to his mistakes,

“I knew Ichiro was running and the ball wasn’t hit particularly hard. I heard Luke [Scott] yelling [to throw home] and I saw him coming down and did my best to get rid of it as quickly as I could and get it there as fast as I could. It was one of those plays where you don’t want to throw it to the first base side of the plate because that just gives them an open lane to throw to, so I went to the third base side and went too far. It wasn’t a good throw and two runs came in…It was the play that cost us the game. You never want to be in one of these situations and you never want to be that guy, but I’m a grown man, I can handle this sort of stuff. It’s not something you ever want to do but you prepare for. I’ve done this sort of thing in the minor leagues and it’s nothing in comparison to this type of stage and this type of situation playing in September against the Yankees, who we are chasing.”

The fact remains, he never should have been in there. I’m still opining for what could have been, but it’s also time to move on. The Rangers come into town tomorrow for yet another big three game series between two potential contenders. More on the series after the stats.

Rays and Rangers series starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Rangers hitting at home and away, (respectively) and over the last 14 days.
  • Look at the bright side, the Rays picked up a game on the Yankees…that’s a plus.
  • RHP prospect Chris Archer will join the Rays Friday. Archer gives the team a potential spot starter for the last month of the season. We probably won’t see him in this upcoming series, though it’s nice to know that the Rays have another quality pitcher in their back pocket just in case.
  • The Rays have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, averaging 4.1 runs per game. The Rangers, on the other hand, have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games, averaging 5 runs per game.
  • Taking the bulleted point above into consideration, the Rays offense is looking competitive…especially when you compare the Rays over the last 14 days, with the Rangers numbers away from Arlington. With the exception of the smaller sample size, dare I say that Tampa Bay might actually pose an offensive threat to the Rangers?
  • Mike Napoli and Ian Kinsler are both on the DL or are day-to-day…not that their absence has really effected the Rangers offensive productivity.
  • The Rays have split six season meetings with the Rangers, all in Texas, and most recently lost two of three Aug. 27-29.
  • Derek Holland is part of a streak of five starts by the that have ended in Texas wins. He’s 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA in that stretch, getting 8.37 runs of support per nine innings.Holland got much more help than he needed Sunday in an 8-3 victory at Cleveland. He allowed two runs and scattered seven hits in seven innings. Then again, he also gave up five earned runs in his last start against the Rays, leaning on six runs by Beltre and Co to win the game. The Rays have notoriously beaten up on Holland (see the match-ups below) in the past.
  • Josh Hamilton is hitting .167 with one homer and 12 RBIs in 20 career games, five of which have come over the last two postseasons.
  • Beltre is still hot…yikes. It also bears mentioning that has a .341 average with six homers and 17 RBIs over his last 22 visits to Tropicana Field.
  • Yeah yeah, they played one another a little more than a week ago. And true, the Rays are facing the same pitchers. However, the Rays numbers against Holland, Darvish, and Harrison have changed if only slightly. So how do they match-up with the Rangers pitchers this time around?
  1. Derek Holland: The Rays have posted a .301 BA/.358 OBP/.593 SLG/.951 OPS line against, with 20 extra base hits including six homers, and 22 RBI in 123 total at-bats. Key match-ups: Matt Joyce (2-3, RBI), Jeff Keppinger (4-11, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (8-19, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI), BJ Upton (8-17, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 3 RBI), Ben Zobrist (6-18, 2 2B, 3B, HR, 6 RBI)
  2. Yu Darvish: The Rays faced Darvish for the first time last week, posting a .240 BA/.296 OBP/.280 SLG/.576 OPS line. Oof. A few guys had some good at-bats against him though: Sam Fuld (2-2), Ryan Roberts (1-3), Luke Scott (1-2, 2B), Ben Zobrist (1-2, BB)
  3. Matt Harrison: The Rays have had a lot of success against Harrison in the past. In 96 combined at-bats, Tampa Bay has posted a .383 BA/.442 OBP/.617 SLG/1.059 OPS line, with five homers, five triples, and a double. They’ve driven in 17 and  walked 10 times. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (3-6, 2 BB), Sam Fuld (1-3, 3B), Chris Gimenez (3-5, RBI), Desmond Jennings (4-6, BB), Elliot Johnson (3-6, 2B, HR, RBI), Jeff Keppinger (6-10), Evan Longoria (6-9, 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI), BJ Upton (4-8, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (4-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB)

Rays vs. the Bronx Bummers, 9/5/12 Starting Lineup, etc

Alright Tampa Bay, let’s make this happen!

The Rays will attempt to offer up a knock-out blow (of sorts) to the Yankees tonight at the Trop. The once mighty and untouchable team that’s sat atop of the AL East for the majority of the 2012 season has all but lost their dominance over the both the O’s and the Rays. The Rays could sit a half game behind the Yankees with a win tonight. Should any of us discount the potential power up and down the Yankees lineup? Of course not…they’re still dangerous. However, they are a team on the ropes, being held to six or fewer hits in the last five games.

That said, tonight should be a fun one, with Matt Moore on the mound. Moore had a killer month of August, going 3-1, posting a 2.19 ERA, while striking out 40 and walking only 12. That’s a 3+:1 K/BB ratio for anyone that’s counting.

Oh yeah, before I get to the starting lineup, (below) Bobby Valentine opened his yapper again.

Rays 9/5/12 Starting Lineup

Fuld CF
Jennings LF
Zobrist SS
Longoria DH
Joyce RF
Scott 1B
Keppinger 3B
Lobaton C
Johnson 2B
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness:Elliot Johnson at second? Oof. I understand where you’re coming from Joe, but Roberts can get the day off tomorrow…this game is too important. You saw what he did at third the other night, right? Maddon also mentioned that Evan Longoria needed another day at DH and should be back at third by Friday. A very hot hitting BJ Upton and Carlos Pena are  getting the day off as well, finding Sam Fuld and Luke Scott in center and first respectively. Let’s stick pins in our O’s and Yankees voodoo dolls! As always, Let’s Go Rays!