Sound the Death Knell, A Rays vs. Sox Series Preview, Etc

The face of frustration. Matt Joyce arguing with the home plate umpire over balls and strikes in the eighth inning, after being call out on a David Robertson breaking pitch that looked to be off the plate. Joyce was ultimately ejected from the game.
…And with the end of the Rays final game of the season series against the Yankees, the post-season hopes of every fan of the Rays have become all but dashed. A good friend put things in perspective: “The problem for the Rays, going forward, is that even if they win out, they’re chasing three (or four if you count the Yankees) teams. The Rays need at least two of those teams to lose, often, over the next week and a half. There is cause for hope still, of course, particularly if the Rays can find their bats. After all, they end the season at home against the Orioles, so if they can stay within three games, they’ll have a shot. But that’s a pretty tall order. It’s a 162-game season. There are, I think, 16 games left–against the Red Sox, Jays, White Sox, and O’s–and the Rays margin for error is pretty close to zero.” Enough said.
It’s safe to say that the upcoming series against the Red Sox is critical, even if they are under .500. With the margin of error being slim to none, the Rays cannot afford to lose any more ground to the other play-off contenders. You’ve also got to imagine that Bobby Valentine, and his ramblin’ brigade of rubes, would want nothing more than to serve Tampa Bay a heaping dish of revenge after last year.
Rays and Red Sox starters over the last 14 days.
Rays and Red Sox offensive production at home and away, (respectively) as well as over the last 14 days.
  • All is not lost, Tampa Bay definitely has some winnable games ahead of them. The Rays will play nine straight against sub-.500 clubs beginning with Monday night’s visit from the Boston Red Sox. They will need to BABIP the living daylights out of the Sox and Jays, if only to get back on track offensively.
  • (Lack of) offense; Tampa Bay, had five hits in yesterday’s loss. They’re batting .218 in the last 10 games and .172 with runners in scoring position. Yikes.
  • Could the Red Sox under the big-top be a god send? I have a sneaking suspicion that they could. According to ESPN, “The Red Sox have dropped 14 of 18 and 10 of 13 on the road, but won their first two games in Toronto this weekend before falling 5-0 in Sunday’s finale. They were 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position in that defeat, which put them one shy of the franchise’s first losing season since 1997.”
  • Maybe Bobby V. will entertain us by doing, or saying, something stupid. He is entertaining, if only because he looks like a cross between Sandusky and one of the Klopeks.
  • DRaysBay makes a good point, “The Red Sox have dropped 14 of 18 and 10 of 13 on the road, but won their first two games in Toronto this weekend before falling 5-0 in Sunday’s finale. They were 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position in that defeat, which put them one shy of the franchise’s first losing season since 1997.” Here here!
  • How do the Rays fare against the Red Sox starters? Let’s see.
  1. Aaron Cook: Cook is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in three games against the Rays, with Tampa Bay posting a .118 BA/.167 OBP/.324 SLG/.490 OPS against. It bears mentioning that the Rays have not faced Cook since 2009, so the numbers are reflective of most of the Rays (on the current roster) having never faced seen him. Key match-ups: Evan Longoria (2-4, HR, RBI), Carlos Pena (2-5, 2B, HR, RBI, BB)
  2. Felix Doubront: Tampa Bay has had a lot of success against Doubront, posting a .338 BA/.434 OBP/.585 SLG/1.019 OPS line against. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (2-3, 2 2B), Desmond Jennings (2-4, 2B), Matt Joyce (1-2, BB), Jeff Keppinger (3-5, 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (2-4, 2 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Sean Rodriguez (3-8, 3B), Luke Scott (2-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI), BJ Upton (2-6, 2B, 3B, BB)
  3. Daisuke Matsuzaka: The Rays have also hit Matsuzaka pretty well, posting a .266 BA/.442 OBP/.523 SLG/.965 OPS line against, with seven homers and doubles, and 25 RBI. They’ve also got a nice collection of 33 walks. I reckon the question should be which inning will the Rays knock Matsuzaka out of the game, not how long will he last. Key match-ups: Ben Francisco (1-3), Sam Fuld (1-2), Evan Longoria (4-12, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB), Carlos Pena (6-25, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 10 BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-6, 2B), Luke Scott (4-13, 2B, HR, 5 RBI, 9 BB), Ben Zobrist (5-14, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB
  4. Clay Buchholz: Buchholz has been the Sox most consistent pitcher, though that’s not saying much. The Rays have posted a .231 BA/.319 OBP/.357 SLG/.676 OPS line against in 182 at-bats. Key match-ups: Sam Fuld (1-2, 2B, RBI), Desmond Jennings (1-4, BB), Matt Joyce (5-12, 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Jose Molina (5-12, 2B, 3 RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (3-10, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), BJ Upton (6-20, 2B, HR, RBI, 3 BB)
  • According to Mark Topkin, “In theory, all the Rays have to do is get within three games of the O’s and then at least they would have a chance. This would appear to be a good week for the Rays to make up some ground, as they host the two lagging AL East teams, the last-place Red Sox for four games and the Blue Jays for three. The Orioles have similar foes, but are on the road, playing at Seattle and then Boston. The Rays also trail the Angels, who host the Rangers and White Sox. And right behind the Rays are the Tigers, who have the easiest finishing schedule of all the contenders; this week they play the wild-card leading A’s and the Twins.”
  • Cool Standings has the Rays with a 16% chance of making the playoffs at the start of Monday, down from 26% prior to their loss in New York. The percentages will undoubtedly change as games are played.
  • No word on whether Sam Fuld will be available for any of the Rays/Sox series following a hamstring strain yesterday.

…And So It Goes, Rays vs. Yanks (9/16/12 Starting Lineup Included)

Tampa Bay Rays center fielder B.J. Upton misses a fly ball after slipping on a banana peel in the eighth inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

I think it goes without saying, the Rays post-season hopes hinge on their final game against the Yankees today. If they win, they can pick up the game that they lost last night to the Bronx Bummers. If they lose, they’ll fall five games behind those carpetbaggers, making it that much harder to make up any ground going into the final two weeks of the season.

In any case, with the probability of the Rays making it to the playoffs back down to 26.7%, the comfort of being able to solely control your own destiny has been all but lost. In short, the Rays are going to have to play solid baseball from here on out, and hope that they catch a break.

It also goes without saying that the Rays offensive production is (yet again) ebbing, which has had a drastic effect on whether they win or lose, especially in the last week. After coming off a surprisingly productive August where they averaged 4.32 runs per game, the Rays are again proving that runs are a commodity, averaging 4.07 per game. Saturday’s game was another hard fought loss. Shields had decent stuff, the difference being two accidents left in the zone that found their way to the seats. The defense was on…well, with the exception of two late inning misplays thanks to Melvin Emmaunel. In the end though, the blame should be put on the Rays at the plate, not in the field. A four run deficit shouldn’t be hard to overcome. However, when you go into the fifth inning with only one hit, the odds of winning are drastically decreased. On that note, Saturday was the 29th time this season they’ve entered the fifth inning with one hit or fewer. They’re 8-21 in those games.

The Rays do like Kuroda, in that they’ve been able to bat him around. And though they lost their last meeting, Tampa Bay has been able to tag Kuroda for eight earned runs on 16 hits, including a pair of homers and six walks in two starts. The key is, again, to score four or more runs today. I guess another goal would be to get more than a hit in five innings, but that goes without saying. Tampa Bay is 17-5 (.773 w-l%) when scoring four runs in a game, jumping up to 14-3 (.824 w-l%) when scoring at least five runs. …And young Matty Moore, limit any damage. The Rays are at their best when they allow four runs or fewer in a game, with a 71-30 record.

Rays 9/16/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Joyce DH
Upton CF
Scott 1B
Keppinger 2B
Fuld RF
Lobaton C
Moore LHP

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward, Rays vs the Bronx Bummers 9/15/12 (Starting lineup included)

NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 14: Fernando Rodney #56 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates after earning a five out save against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 14, 2012 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

CC Sabathia and the Yankees were precisely what the doctor ordered. Following a disappointing series fail at the hands of the O’s, the Rays bounced back and ground out a much-needed win against the Bronx Bummers. Tampa Bay now finds itself three games behind both the Yankees and the O’s, who also lost last night. Tampa Bay is hungry for another win against Ivan Nova who’s coming off the DL.

This victory was a very Rays like victory, one that wasn’t predicated on a huge slug fest. In short, it was the kind of game that they should put together consistently. It was hard-fought game, with the Rays doing all they could to win. Tampa Bay drove in as many runs in nine innings last night as they had in the previous 32 innings against the Orioles.

Granted there were opportunities for the Yankees to defeat the Rays, but they didn’t. And instead of rolling over, the Rays continued to put men on the bags, crossing the plate in the fifth, seventh, eighth, and ninth innings. True, they put up a .267 BABIP last night, lower than what they’ve averaged both on the road and over the last 14 days. But Tampa Bay came up big when it mattered. They scored three runs in the fifth inning after falling behind the Yankees 1-0, and they never looked back.

The Yankees would rally back in the fifth and eighth innings (respectively) on a pair of Granderson and Rodriguez taters, but the Rays met their rally, scoring three more runs and ultimately suppressing the Yankees, while never relenting the lead. Bulleted highlights and low-lights after the scoring synopsis.

You know, why not use ESPN’s scoring synopsis? I mean, it’s so colorful…
  • How we wish that David Price could start every game against the Yankees. Price, now 7-3 against the Yankees, posted a 7 IP/5 H/2 ER/2 BB/6 K/1 HR line, while throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Yankees. He didn’t look particularly sharp in the first inning, though he eventually tightened things up, inducing 10 ground balls while looking pretty damn whiffy on his off-speed pitches where he produced swings and misses just over 20% of the time.
  • Upton bashed his 23rd homer of the year, driving in his 68th RBI, and giving the Rays a 5-2 lead.
  • Okay Elliot Johnson, you royally biffed things up on a misplayed ball off the bat of Derek Jeter. BUT you made a pretty great play an out later off the bat of A-Roid to end the inning. Plus, you went 1-3 with two runs and a run batted in. So yeah, uh…thanks for not sucking.
  • Fernando Rodney locked down his 43rd save of the year, just two shy of he who now pitches for the Yankees. Let the arrow fly.
  • We’ll be following Cool Standings for the next 18 games. You should too!
Sure, the Rays have a 32% chance of making the playoffs at the moment. However, they increased their odds by 6% following their win and the Orioles loss. Let’s pray to the baseball gods, for more of the same today! (Courtesy of coolstandings.com)

We’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 9/15/12 Starting Lineup

Jennings LF
Zobrist SS
Longoria DH
Upton CF
Keppinger 3B
Joyce RF
Roberts 2N
Pena 1B
Molina C
Shields RHP

Noteworthiness: With Roberts back at second and Longo at DH, Keppinger gets the start at third while Peña handles the first base duties. Joyce is back in the lineup since there’s a righty (Nova) on the mound. Tampa Bay has also reactivated Sean Rodriguez from the DL.

Rays 9/14/12 Starting Lineup

Rays 9/15/12 Starting Lineup:

Jennings LF
Zobrist SS
Longoria DH
Upton CF
Keppinger 3B
Francisco RF
Gimenez C
Pena 1B
Johnson 2B
Price LHP

Noteworthiness: The Rays will try to bounce back from a disappointing series against the O’s, with a three game set against those dreaded Bronx Bummers. If Tampa Bay hopes to make it to the post-season, they are going to need to step to the plate, (literally and proverbially) starting tonight. Joe Maddon’s put together an interesting lineup, finding DesJen, Zo, and Longo at the top of the order, bumping Upton down to the fourth spot. Elliot Johnson is back in the thick of things at second with Roberts, presumably, on the mend. I mean, it’s not like he’s got to worry about making too many long throws there. We’ll just hope he doesn’t have to throw home. Why Ben Francisco is in there instead of Fuld, is beyond me. Ho hum…Oh well, as always, Let’s Go Rays!

A Rays vs Yankees Series Preview of Sorts

If the way we Rays fans feel at the moment could be captured in picture form, it would look something like this.

Riddle: What team has bashed out 26 hits over the course of their last 32 innings of play, yet could only muster six runs in that span of time? Yup, you guessed it…your Tampa Bay Rays. You know, the same team that was only a game behind Baltimore prior to the start of the last series, yet currently sits four games back of the AL East leading Orioles. Ouch.

I suppose you could look at the Rays woes from either an optimistic or pessimistic point of view.

On one hand, Tampa Bay still has 19 games left, with 10 coming against post-season contenders. The Rays also have a lot of winnable games ahead of them. As a wise man once put it, “Their starting and bullpen pitchers are good enough, and it’s not entirely crazy to think that their streaky hitters might get hot all at once and stay hot for a week or two. That could still happen. If the Rays win something like 15 of their next 19 – and with 11 games against a bruised Yankees squad, a scuffling Red Sox team, and a Blue Jays team that lacks both pitching and Bautista (even though E5 has been great this year), that’s within the realm of possibility – their final tilt against Baltimore might be relevant after all.”

Then again, press the panic button folks, the end could be nigh. The same wise man (referenced above) also said, “That sound, I fear, was the death knell for the Rays this year. I know they finish the season with a three-game set against the O’s at the Trop, but I have a hard time imagining the Rays winning often enough in the meantime to make that series relevant.”

It’s worrisome that the Rays are potentially slipping back into the regression phase of their tenuous relationship with productivity, especially at this point in the season…especially if they’re serious about taking a stab at the post-season.

The Rays and offensive production have been at odds with one another for the better part of the season. Sure, there was April and August…and to some extent the beginning of September. But otherwise, there was that huge black hole from May to July. I fear that if they don’t turn things around in their upcoming series against the Bronx Bummers, it may be too late.

From left to right: Games Played, W, L, At-Bats, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, Batting Average, On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, and On Base Plus Slugging
BABIP, wOBA, and wRC from March until now.

Of course, there are usual subjects; Neither Carlos Pena or Luke Scott have performed up to snuff, Matt Joyce seems incapable of hitting left handed pitching, so on and so forth. And sure, there’s enough time for the usual suspects to turn it around…at least I hope. I guess it comes back to that cliche that we’ve had to depend on for so much of this season, there’s always tomorrow. I just hope that Tampa Bay can take advantage of the remaining tomorrow’s. If they can’t, the next tomorrow won’t be in October, it will be game one of Spring Training. Now, onward to the upcoming tomorrow.

The Rays and Yankees series starters over the last 14 days.
The Rays and Yankees offensive production at home and away, (respectively) and over the last 14 days.
  • The Rays scored two runs in each of its three games in Baltimore, while going 4 for 37 (.108) wRISP in their past six games. SSDD, I suppose.
  • The Rays have lost 10 of 14 in Yankee Stadium, though they’ve gone 9-6 in the season series. Tampa Bay has won five of the last seven against the Yankees, though they’ve hit .215 and scored 18 runs. They’ve also lost four of six in the Bronx this season.
  • Oh Matt Joyce, what have you become? After posting a .294 BA/.368 OBP/.618 SLG/.986 OPS/.341 BABIP/.411 wOBA/14.8 wRC line in his best month, (April) Joyce has cooled considerably. Posting a .231 BA/.355 OBP/.423 SLG/.778 OPS/.313 BABIP/.319 wOBA/6.7 wRC line so far in September. He’s put up a .157 BA with 21 strikeouts in his last 22 games.
  • Grimmace is on the mound for game one of the series. Jeff Keppinger is batting .400 (8 for 20) in his last five games, and .417 (10 for 24) versus Sabathia. Evan Longoria is hitting .378 (14 for 37) with three doubles and five home runs against the left-hander.
  • Is Longoria starting to heat up? After putting up some not so great numbers in August upon his return, Longo seems like he might be turning the corner…and not too soon. He’s posted a .293 BA/.383 OBP/.488 SLG/.871/.303 BABIP/.371 wOBA line so far in September, with two doubles, two homers, three runs, and six RBI.
  1. Sabathia is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in four starts against the Rays this season, including a loss in their last meeting at the Trop on September 3. Sabathia has gone 0-2 with a 4.43 ERA in his last three outings overall, while allowing five runs and three homers in 6-1/3 innings of a  loss at Baltimore on Saturday. Price (17-5, 2.54) is 2-1 with a 3.20 ERA in four starts against the Yankees in 2012, but 1-1 with 4.50 ERA in the Bronx this season. However it should be noted, that Price is 4-1 in starts against the McDonalds like character.
  2. Ivan Nova: The Rays have posted some paltry numbers against Nova, though he did just return from the DL so we’ll see if that works in the Rays favor. Tampa Bay has posted a .185 BA/.252 OBP/.363 SLG/.615 OPS line against Nova, with a few Rays posting decent numbers against: Desmond Jennings (3-10, 2B, 3B, BB), Elliot Johnson (2-5, HR, RBI), Jeff Keppinger (2-5, 2 RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (5-12, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI)
  3. Hiroki Kuroda: We like Kuroda…if only because the Rays have had a measure of success against him. In 68 combined at-bats, the Rays have BABIP’d Kuroda around, posting a .309 BA/.390 OBP/.485 SLG/.875 OPS line, while knocking in 9 RBI. Favorable match-ups: Sam Fuld (1-2, BB), Desmond Jennings (2-6, RBI), Matt Joyce (2-5, HR, RBI, BB), Carlos Pena (2-5, 2 RBI, BB), Jose Lobaton (2-5, 2 2B, BB), Luke Scott (4-6, 2B, HR, 4 RBI), Ben Zobrist (2-5, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, BB)