Looking Backwards While Looking Forward: the Tough Loss Edition

Baltimore Orioles catcher Matt Wieters, left, tags out Tampa Bay Rays’ Rich Thompson to end the top of the ninth inning of a baseball game in Baltimore, Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2012. Baltimore won 3-2. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

With any and all momentum from their last home stand all but lost, the Rays dropped their second straight game to the Orioles by a score of 3-2. Tampa Bay has now scored only four runs in their last 41 innings in Baltimore. My opinion? This team isn’t playing like a play-off contender, and the frustration is palpable.

I’d love to stand here and give props to the Orioles pitching staff for throwing a hell of a game. However that wasn’t the case, as they handed the Rays opportunity after opportunity to win the game. In the end, Tampa Bay squandered almost every opportunity handed to them.

Finding themselves on base 16 times on nine hits and seven walks, Tampa Bay had men in scoring position in the first, second, third, sixth, seventh, and ninth innings. Sadly though, they would end the night going 2-10 wRISP, stranding 11 on the bags. The Yankees won, the Orioles are surging, (as are the Athletics) yet the Rays find themselves floundering…waiting for some steering current to send them in the right direction.

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times: it really doesn’t matter if the Rays give up three runs or three-hundred runs. When they score only two runs, a win probably isn’t in the cards. They are now 3-20 when they score twice in a game. I’m not so confident that you can expect success, when you butt heads against a team that is 45-2 when they give up two (or fewer) runs in a game. Please, allow the screen shot (below) to baffle you. If it speaks to anything, it’s the sheer amount of opportunities that the Rays had.

No friends, this isn’t the box-score of a little league team.

No, this is straight up horrible baseball. Tampa Bay now find themselves 20-25 in one run games…in games they should have won no less. And to think that halfway through September, the Rays have better combined power numbers than they did in August; a month when they went 17-11, while playing their best baseball since April.

Let’s not pretend that the game wasn’t terribly mismanaged, because it was. Joe Maddon made some very questionable choices which ultimately sank the Rays. Most notably, I can recall three really big situations that could have ended differently, had Maddon acted accordingly.

1. With the bases juiced in a tie game, Maddon allowed Jose Molina to hit. It bears mentioning that Molina’s power numbers are terrible, as is his batting average. Posting a chilly .201 BA/.265. OBP/310. SLG/.575 OPS/.257 wOBA line, what more could Maddon expect out of the swarthy catcher? Then factor in that there were seven left handed options sitting on the bench, with Sam Fuld and Luke Scott being the best of them, and that we are talking about a high leverage situation in a tight game where runs were at a premium. And what did Molina have to show for his at-bat? A slow grounder to first for the easy out. It makes the blood boil, doesn’t it?

2. The game was still tied in the seventh with the Rays were threatening to score the go ahead run, with BJ Upton on second and no outs. Ahem…another situation where pinching one of those left handed batters would have greatly increased the odds of a hit against the tough righty, Darren O’Day. Maddon, instead, allowed the right handed Ben Francisco to step into the box against a pitcher who righties have posted a .201 BA/.273 OBP/.343 SLG/.266 wOBA against. Also, Francisco had never faced O’Day either. O’Day ultimately schooled Francisco, who struck out swinging. And to add insult to injury, Sam Fuld replaced Francisco in left field in the bottom of the inning.

3. Then the ninth inning happened. With one out, Jeff Keppinger singled to center. Maddon replaced Keppinger with the speedy Rich Thompson, who promptly stole second on a very close play. Evan Longoria stepped to the plate in a very Longo situation. He hit a dribbler up the third base line, forcing Manny Machado to charge the ball. Machado couldn’t get Longoria at first, so he turned and fired the ball to third where Thompson had taken too wide of a turn. Machado caught Thompson in a run down, ending not only the inning, but any other threat the Rays may have had in a very Willy Aybar like running gaffe.

Dustin, of the blog, Rays the Stakes said it best,

Yeah. Molina should never have come up to bat with the bases loaded in the 6th, Fuld (or any of the lefties) should’ve pinch-hit for Ben Francisco against (former Gator closer and righty killer) Darren O’Day, plus why not use Rodney in the 9th? Why not let Davis go more than one inning, so you can use guys like Peralta later? Whatever. The Rays had their chances and failed to cash them in. Doing so dropped their odds of making the post-season from about 50% to 39.3% according to Coolstandings. For the record, the odds coming into this series were up around 70%.

This brings us to the third game of this three game set. The Rays will try to salvage things before they head to the Bronx for another three game series. Buck Showalter announced that Wei-Yin Chen (12-9, 4.06 ERA) will toe the rubber for the O’s against Jeremy Hellickson. Chen only lasted 4.2 innings in his last start against the Yankees, relenting seven earned runs on the backs of six hits, including three homers. The Rays have beaten the O’s with Chen on the mound twice before, and will hope to pounce on him tonight.

Wei-Yin Chen over the last 14 days.

Then again, the Rays have put up some terrible numbers against Chen in 62 total at-bats. Posting a .194 BA/.286 OBP/.210 SLG/.495 OPS line against, only Sam Fuld (2-5, BB), Jeff Keppinger (3-6, RBI), Luke Scott (1-3, 2 RBI), and Ben Zobrist (3-8) have had much success off of Chen. One one hand, Tampa Bay is 2-1 with Chen on the mound. Then again, they were shut out the last time they faced the rookie LHP. Cough, perhaps the reintroduction of Desmond Jennings at the top of the lineup will offer the Rays some sort of a spark. We’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 9/13/12 Starting Lineup

TBA

Looking Backward While Moving Forward…the Oof Edition (Rays 9/12/12 Starting Lineup Included)

I’d like to use this picture as a metaphor for last night’s atrocious two run, five hit game. It seems fitting.

On the heels of the news that Matt Moore has been tipping his pitches, the young lefty went out last night and gave it his all…which really wasn’t much. I think it’s safe to say that with the exception of Cesar Ramos, the pitching staff looked like garbage. Then again, so did the rest of the team. The Rays, behind some pretty crappy plays by Matt Joyce, as well as an anemic offense that could only squeeze out two runs on five hits, were terrible. I won’t bore you with the gory details. If a picture is worth a thousand words, checking out the box score should be more than enough to illustrate the point.

I’ve got to hand it to the Orioles. They looked like, well…the Rays last night. Baltimore was aggressive on the base-paths with Machado and McLouth steeling a pair of bags, as well as Andino, Hardy, and Weiters legging out three doubles, among other things. They also took advantage of any opportunities the Rays gave them, ultimately going 4-9 wRISP. Look at the bright side: with the Yankees loss to the dreadful Red Sox, at least the Rays are in second place.

Alex Cobb will be tasked with righting the ship, and the Rays will be depending on a good start from him. He seems like the perfect guy for the start tonight.

Tampa Bay has won the last seven games that Cobb has started. To that end, Cobb hasn’t given up more than three runs in six out of seven of those starts, which is important; Tampa Bay is 70-28 when their opponents have scored four runs or fewer against. On the flip side of things, the key number for the Rays is four. If Tampa Bay can eek out at least four runs tonight, the odds of a victory are in the Rays favor.

See, they’re 63-11 this season when they score at least four runs in a game. Granted the Orioles have the worst run differential of any team in in contention, they just happen to be the kings of winning one run games. And it bears mentioning that the O’s haven’t lost a game when they’ve scored five or more runs while allowing four runs or fewer in the same game. That said, it’s incumbent on the Rays to put up at least four or five runs tonight. In short, this not putting up crooked numbers stuff doesn’t suit Tampa Bay well, especially in this series. We’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 9/12/12 Starting Lineup

Upton CF
Keppinger DH
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Francisco LF
Pena 1B
Roberts 2B
Joyce RF
Molina C
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness: Roberts left last night’s game with a forearm strain, following an injury incurred while he attempted to tag out McLouth on a stolen base. Thankfully the X-Rays that were taken following the injury came back negative, and he’s in the lineup at second, hitting seventh. Evan Longoria is back in there at third, hitting fourth. Accordingly ‘Los will get the start at first tonight, hitting fifth and bumping Jeff Keppinger to the DH spot. Desmond Jennings, surprisingly, will be on the bench. Ben Francisco will get the start in left instead, though I’m not sure why when there’s someone on the roster that actually makes contact. (ahem, Fuld)

Rays 9/11/12 Starting Lineup

Rays 9/11/12 Starting Lineup

Upton CF
Keppinger 3B
Zobrist SS
Longoria DH
Joyce RF
Francisco LF
Scott 1B
Roberts 2B
Molina C
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness: The Rays start a huge series in Baltimore tonight. Ben Francisco will get the left field duties, hitting sixth. Though Desmond Jennings said he feels well enough to play, Joe Maddon is playing it cautiously, putting Francisco in there instead. Jeff Keppinger will get the start at third, finding Evan Longoria at DH, and Luke Scott at first. In other news, Sean Rodriguez threw without a splint today, and expects to be activated Saturday. He’ll be eligible to pinch-run, play defense, and bunt then. Also, Maddon announced that David Price will get the start Friday following a successful bullpen session. Oh yeah, if you haven’t read the series preview, what’s the holdup?!

A Rays vs. Orioles Preview of Sorts (9/11/12-9/13/12)

ST. PETERSBURG, FL – SEPTEMBER 09: James Shields #33 of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a two hitter during the game against the Texas Rangers on September 9, 2012 at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Charles Sonnenblick/Getty Images)

Here we go kids. Just 22 games left of this season, and the Rays are about to embark on a very important six game road trip which will take them to Baltimore and New York for a pair of three-game sets. The Orioles are coming off of a two game split against the Yankees, where they attempted to take the top spot in the East. CC Sabathia dealt the O’s a big blow by plunking Nick Markakis and breaking his thumb. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is coming off of a pair of series wins over the Yankees and Rangers. The Rays were able to gain a game on the Yankees, finding them two games out of first in the East. Both the Rays and O’s are primed to gain some ground in this upcoming series.

I say this with all sincerity: I would kill to see the Rays and the O’s end in the season at first and second in the East. I’m certainly not counting either team out. But with the Yankees being the Yankees, it’s going to be a grind for both teams. There’s nothing that I’d like more than to see the Rays take the next two series, while the Orioles remain strong going into the stretch. Who knows, maybe both Tampa Bay and Baltimore can sink the Bronx Bummers. It bears mentioning that the Rays are closing the season out at home against the Orioles. Friends, a battle for first and second to end the season would make for some compelling baseball…much more compelling than watching a team with an bloated budget win the division yet again. Yawn. More below after the stats.

Rays and Orioles series starters over the last 14 games.
Rays and Orioles hitting at home and away, (respectively) and over the last 15 days.
  • Orioles outfielder Adam Jones, is batting .393 with three homers in his last seven games. That’s okay, because BJ Upton has posted a .407 BA/.467 OBP/1.037 SLG/1.504 OPS line in September, with five of his 11 September hits being homers.
  • Matt Moore is 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA in his last four road outings. Moore is also 2-1 with a 1.15 ERA over three starts in this series. That comes with a caveat: Mark Reynolds is batting .343 with nine homers and 17 RBIs in his last 10 games. Also, Matt Wieters is 4 for 7 with two home-runs off of Moore.
  • Miguel Gonzalez gets the start for the Orioles on Wednesday. He was tagged for seven runs over 2 2/3 innings during a 10-1 home loss July 25 against the Rays. He bounced back in his following start against Tampa Bay, allowing only two hits in seven scoreless innings. Gonzalez is coming off a 6.1 inning five run, seven hit loss to Toronto.
  • These teams have split 12 games overall, with six at Camden Yards this year.
  • How do the Rays stack up against the Orioles starters?
  1. Jason Hammel: The Rays haven’t had much success against Hammel. Posting a .189 BA/.318 OBP/.243 SLG/.561 OPS line, Tampa Bay has all of seven hits in 37 at-bats against. The key match-ups are few and far in between: Jose Molina (2-5, 2B, BB), Carlos Pena (1-3), Luke Scott (2-7, 2B, 3 RBI)
  2. Miguel Gonzalez: The Rays have posted a .265 BA/.419 OBP/.471 SLG/.889 OPS line against the rookie RHP, with two homers and 7 RBI in 34 combined at-bats. Key Match-ups: Elliot Johnson (1-2, 2 RBI), Carlos Pena (2-4, RBI, BB), Ryan Roberts (1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB), BJ Upton (2-5, BB)
  • Jason Hammel was hit on the elbow Thursday, but said Friday that he’s “good to go” for his next start, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Could this effect his performance any come Tuesday?
  • Tampa Bay has posted a combined .239 BA/.315 OBP/.387 SLG/.702 OPS line overall, ranked 27th in the majors in batting average. On the other hand, the Orioles have posted a .246 BA/.310 OBP/.416 SLG/.726 OPS line overall, ranked 22nd in the majors in batting average. However the Rays put together numbers that looked, dare I say…decent, in the month of August. Posting a .260 BA/.317/.424 SLG/.741 OPS line, the Rays ended the month with 121 total runs, more than the O’s. They haven’t let down in September, posting a .262 BA/.328 OBP/.473 SLG/.801 OPS line.
  • And with that (above) said, Tampa Bay has the lowest ERA in the majors’ at 3.22. They’ve compiled a 2.64 ERA mark this month, holding opponents to a .185 BAA. Moore, Cobb, and Helly are going to need to be dominant this week. The Orioles are second in the majors’ in run production, (behind the Nationals) during the month of September.
  • Following Sunday’s 6-0 defeat of the dreaded Rangers, James Shields and BJ Upton were tapped as the AL Player’s of the Week.

I know, the song below (Gainesville by, Dillinger Four) is about Gainesville and the Fest. However, I feel like the lyrics are applicable to the pennant race as we march toward October. This time of the year is what it’s all about!

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xETS1FXGyUc]

Because It Bears Mentioning…

Marc Topkin of the Times posted something interesting regarding the Rays and the post-season on the heater blog. I’ve re-posted it below. Give it a gander:

* EASTERN VIEW: The Rays have the toughest schedule of the AL East contenders this week, but also the most control, playing three games at the Orioles and three at the Yankees. While the Rays are in Baltimore, the Yankees, who just found out they will be without 1B Mark Teixeira for 10-14 days, are in Boston. And when the Rays go to New York, the Orioles head out to Oakland, then go to Seattle and Boston.

* GETTING WILDER: The wild-card leading A’s just started a treacherous 17-game stretch that could definitely make or break their season, playing at the Angels, going home for 3 games with the O’s, then heading out to play the Tigers, Yankees and Rangers on the road. The Angels are playing the A’s and then the Royals. The Tigers are playing the Central-leading White Sox and then the Indians.

* ODDS ON: Coolstandings.com, which uses computer simulations to play out the remaining schedule 1-million times, seems to like the Rays chances. Here are the sites playoff chances for the contending teams going into play today:

*Rangers       98.4
A’s                  85.3
*Yankees       81.1
*White Sox    80.2
RAYS              61.3
Orioles           40.1
Angels           32.2
Tigers            21.7
* division leader

Tampa Bay Takes Its Second Consecutive Series

I love seeing this. Texas Rangers’ Josh Hamilton reacts after striking out during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays in St. Petersburg, Fla., Sunday, Sept. 9, 2012. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

The last two series against the Bronx Bummers and the Rangers should serve as a good reminder to all of the numbskulls in America, (I’m looking at you Fox Sports and ESPN) that the Rays are indeed a contender in this pennant chase. Don’t count the out just yet fools! The Rays will get a day off tomorrow, then they’re off to Baltimore for a three game set against the Orioles.

What better way to close out the home-stand, than a two-hit complete game shutout, thanks to Juego G. Shields posted a killer 9.0 IP/2 H/0 R/0 BB/8 K line, on 101 pitches (71 for strikes) including 22 out-of 29 first pitch strikes. Shieldsy kept the ball down, inducing 11 ground balls, and at one point retiring 19 in a row. I do believe that he is deserving of his Big Game James nom de guerre after the way he’s pitched in his last seven starts.

Let’s not forget that the offense did their part, stepping to the plate and knocking in six runs on 13 hits. Oh yeah, did I mention that BJ Upton went yard three times? Upton had his first career three homer game, tying the Rays teams record also done by Evan Longoria in 2008, and Johnny Gomes in 2005. The thought that Tampa Bay would have absolutely demoralized the Rangers hadn’t they gone 1-6 wRISP, while stranding seven on the bags.

Bulleted stuffs below.

  • Carlos Pena was fairly impressive today, going 2-4 while driving a pair of base hits to the opposite field. Why can’t he do this consistently?!
  • Matt Joyce, (2-3, RBI, BB) it took you long enough to come back to form. Joyce doubled to left, driving home Ben Zobrist in the first and putting the Rays up 3-0 following BJ Upton’s first pitch tater.
  • Wha? Jose Molina (1-4, R, 2 RBI) was productive?! J Molina crushed a two run homer to left, driving home Pena who reached base on an opposite field base hit.
  • BJ Upton, (3-5, 3 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI) need I say more?
  • Roy Oswalt showed why the Rangers only committed to signing him to a minor league contract. Oswalt left the game early after giving up four runs on six hits. He ultimate lasted only two innings, getting pulled because of soreness in his elbow.
  • At the end of the day, Tampa Bay is a game behind the Orioles in the East and in the wild-card standings. The upcoming series in Baltimore will be huge, and not only determines the second place team in the East, but how solid of footing they may have. The Orioles were dealt a huge blow today, thanks to the human personification of Grimmace. CC Sabathia plunked Nick Markakis, breaking his thumb. I know, the Orioles stand between the Rays and those overpaid blowhards in the Bronx. However, I’ve opined all season that an AL East with the Rays and O’s at the top would be incredible. I honestly think it’d be better for baseball. I hope this doesn’t set them back far enough that they will no longer be in the race. I’d kill to have the Yankees suffer another injury instead of the O’s.
  • The Rays took two series from two big teams, ending the home-stand with a 4-2 record.

So cherish this victory, dear readers. After all, they’ve only six games of the gauntlet, that ends on game 162 against the O’s, under their belts. I reckon a little Celebration Rock is in order!

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoa7dBSdJxc]