The New What Next: Rays vs. Jays, A Series Preview of Sorts

Desmond Jennings #8 of the Tampa Bay Rays advances from second base to third base on a fly ball in the first inning of a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on May 5, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Desmond Jennings advances from second base to third base on a fly ball in the first inning of a game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on May 5, 2013 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

The Rays come home from their most recent road trip, to take on the Toronto Blue Jays in a four game series at the Trop, starting Monday. This could be a big series for the Rays who went 4-5 on the road, and could walk into a weekend series against a struggling San Diego Padres with a plus .500 record for the first time this season. Both the 11-21 Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres have struggled handily this season. And though the Rays have struggled as well, Tampa Bay seems primed to use the up coming series as a spring board of sorts to right the ship, especially from the pitching perspective. In short, if ever there was an opportunity to take advantage of a pair of struggling teams, it is now.

Per Brendan Kennedy of The Star,

This series marks the first between Toronto and Tampa this year. Last season the Jays were 4-14 against the Rays, who have always been a tough opponent for Toronto. Since 2003, the Jays are 78-104 against the Rays. The Jays have particularly struggled at Tropicana Field, their so-called “House of Horrors.” Over the last five years at the Trop, the Jays are 10-35 . . . The Rays have struggled to start the season. Their pitchers, usually among the league’s best, have posted a 4.35 ERA, fourth-highest in the AL behind the Astros, Jays and Angels. The Rays’ bullpen has been the biggest problem, faring better than only the Astros . . . Jays fans will notice some familiar faces in the Rays’ middle infield, currently manned by former Jays Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar. Johnson is hitting .231 with four home runs, while Escobar — who is day to day with a bruised hand — is batting .174 with a .237 on-base-percentage . . . Veteran lefty Mark Buehrle has given up six home runs in his last two starts, increasing his rate of home runs per nine innings to 2.31, the highest in the American League . . . Thursday’s game will pit reigning Cy Young award winners against each other, with R.A. Dickey, the NL winner, going up against David Price, the AL champ.

Rays and Blue Jays series starters
Rays and Blue Jays series starters
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days
Rays and Blue Jays offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days
Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers
Rays and Blue Jays by the numbers

Rays Hitters Vs. the Blue Jays Series Starters

Mark Buehrle: Per Rotowire, Buehrle pitched 6.2 innings while giving up five earned runs on seven hits in Wednesday’s loss to Boston. He walked three and struck out just one. Buehrle is 8-3 with a 4.19 ERA in 96 2/3 career innings against the Rays, though the last time the Rays faced Buehrle was in 2010 and they absolutely destroyed him. Buehrle posted a 4.2 IP/9 H/6 R/6 ER/1 BB/4 K slash line in that game, having to be pulled early for obvious reasons. The current Rays lineup has posted a combined .318 BA/.344 OBP/.424 SLG/.768 OPS line against the Jays LHP in 85 at-bats. Key match-ups: James Loney (2-6, 2B), Evan Longoria (4-15, 2 2B), Jose Molina (9-24, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Sean Rodriguez (4-7, 2B, RBI). 

JA Happ: Per Rotowire, Happ (0-1, 8.68 ERA vs the Rays over the last three years) walked a whopping seven batters and failed to get out of the fourth inning Thursday against Boston, though he was charged with just two runs on three hits — as well as the loss. Happ is another Blue Jays starter for whom the Rays have had success against the last few years, granted 55 at-bats is a relatively small sample size. Posting a combined .309 BA/.381 OBP/.564 SLG/.945 OPS slash line against Happ, the current Rays have been able to tag Happ for eight doubles and eight RBI in a little more than 11 innings of work. Key match-ups: Desmond Jennings (2-3, 2B), Kelly Johnson (2-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Jose Lobaton (1-2, 2B), James Loney (3-6, 2B, RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (2-4, 2B, BB), Sean Rodriguez (1-3, RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (3-4, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB).

Ricky Romero: Per Rotowire, Romero (5-4, 4.57 ERA vs the Rays over the last three years) allowed three runs on three hits, walking three and striking out four over four innings of a 4-0 loss to Seattle on Friday night. Romero has been a thorn in the Rays side in years past, though he is not the same starter who one hit the Rays back in 2011. Romero V2.0 was sent down to the minors to start the season, and is now making his way back into the Blue Jays rotation thanks to an injury in the rotation. Tampa Bay was able to light him up last season, tagging Romero for 14 earned runs in 13 innings of work. Key match-ups: Jose Lobaton (1-3), Evan Longoria (7-24, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 6 BB), Jose Molina (1-1, RBI), Ryan Roberts (1-1, 2B), Ben Zobrist (9-30, 2 2B, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 5 BB).

RA Dickey: Per Rotowire, Dickey gave up seven runs over six innings in Saturday’s 8-1 loss to the Mariners. Tampa Bay faced Dickey last season, in a game where the Rays were only able to get one lonely hit off the knuckle-baller. Fast forward to 2013, Dickey — like fellow Cy Young Award winner David Price — has been very hittable, giving up 18 earned runs in 36 innings of work. In fact, Dickey has given up three or more runs in five of his seven starts. It will be interesting to see how both Cy Young Award Winners fare against one another Thursday night. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (1-3, 2B).

Noteworthiness

  • Splitsville, USA. When comparing the Rays 2013 L/R splits to 2012, one thing becomes glaringly obvious: though the Rays haven’t deviated from how they hit righties, they have made a killing of sorts against left handed pitching. Tampa Bay has posted a combined .275 BA/.333 OBP/.421 SLG/.754 OPS/.310 wOBA/.146 ISO slash line up to this point. Compare that with their combined .238 BA/.316 OBP/.398 SLG/.714 OPS/.312 wOBA/.158 ISO slash line from 2012. The increase in production is palpable. Tampa Bay has averaged 4.4 runs per game so far this season…a more consistent 4+ runs per game at that.
  • Per Stats Inc, The Blue Jays (11-21) had lost four in a row and 14 of 18 before a 10-2 home win over Seattle on Sunday. It was the most lopsided victory of the year for the team with the AL’s second-worst record, as Toronto matched its highest-scoring game of 2013 and had a season-best 15 hits.
  • Per Marc Topkin, even with Sunday’s win they (Toronto) have lost 14 of 19 and have a run differential of minus-28 in that span.
  • The Jays went 23 innings without a run last week, and scored one or none in four straight games until Sunday’s 10-run outburst.
  • Toronto hasn’t won a series against Tampa Bay since August of 2010, with the Rays going 30-12 in meetings since then. Tampa Bay won last year’s series 14-4. Evan Longoria hit .360 with 14 RBIs in 13 of those games.
  • While the Rays are 6-12 away from home, Tampa Bay 8-4 in St. Petersburg where they’ll kick off a 10-game homestand. They’ve allowed no more than one run in six of the last nine at Tropicana Field.

 

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The “Another Start, Another Loss” Edition

David Price sits in the dugout shortly after Nolan Arenado’s grand slam ends his outing. Price falls to 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)
David Price sits in the dugout shortly after Nolan Arenado’s grand slam ends his outing. Price falls to 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

Well, that certainly didn’t go as planned. Neither David Price nor the Rays could build on their respective previous starts Saturday night, as Tampa Bay got drilled by the Colorado Rockies, losing handily by a score of 9-3. The redundant plot line was the same: Rays take lead, Rays give up lead, Rays lose the game. And though David Price gave up a career worst nine runs — raising his ERA 6.25 — I’d be hesitant to place the blame on he and he alone; sloppy fielding and a quiet offense certainly didn’t help the cause.

David Price is now 1-3 on the season, having given up the lead in five of his six starts. Ideas of what could be hampering the Rays ace swirled once more after Price (again) mentioned that there is nothing is wrong with him physically.

“We’re not used to that with David either,” Rays skipper Joe Maddon said. “I really believe it’s going to come back to us. I don’t have a good answer for that. If anything, his velocity is down just a click, and with that, maybe the other pitches aren’t playing the same off that.”

Price admitted that he had trouble getting a grip on the ball in the thin Colorado air. “It was tough, it was a little bit different,” said Price. He noticeably tried licking his fingers throughout the game, rubbing down the balls that felt too slick. Price went on to say,

“I’ve just got to make better pitches, especially in those big spots. And that not what I’m doing right now. It’s frustrating. It is.”

Case in point: The five run, four hit (three singles and a grand slam), one walk seventh inning, where all the damage came with two outs. Sound familiar? It should.

The inning started off innocently enough. Price quickly got Eric Young to ground out to short, following that up with a swinging strikeout. The quick handed Gonzalez slapped a single to right, and Troy Tulowitzki reached on an infield single to third, sending Gonzalez to second. Both runners were able to move up thanks to an Evan Longoria throwing error. Michael Cuddyer then reached on a misplayed RBI infield single to Ben Zobrist. Price would walk the next batter to load the bases, bringing Arenado — who hadn’t hit a homer until the Rays series — to the plate. Arenado crushed a 1-1 hanging curveball to deep center, quickly killing any hope of a Rays comeback in the ninth.

The combination of Price not being able to close things out and sloppy fielding (cough, the two things that the Rays are best at) were enough to sound the death knell last night. To be fair though, going 2-7 wRISP while stranding nine on the bags surely didn’t help the cause either. I digress.

The New What Next

The Tampa Bay Rays will attempt to walk out of Denver with a series win and a 4-5 record on this road trip, Sunday afternoon. Alex Cobb will try to rectify things against Tyler Chatwood and the Rockies, following his train-wreck of a start five days ago. It will be interesting to see how Cobb chooses to mix his pitches. Will he readily rely on his curveball in the thin mountain air? Will he lead with his fastball? We’ll see in a few hours. You can read more on the match-up here.

Rays Cinco De Mayo Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Joyce RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Johnson LF
Roberts 2B
Lobaton C
Rodriguez SS
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

  • With the loss, goes the streak. The Rays streak of 17 consecutive games with a home run came to an end last night.
  • Yunel Escobar is listed as day-to-day after getting hit by a pitch in the second inning of last night’s game. The x-rays came back negative, and he is expected to miss at least 2-to-3 days with a left hand contusion.
  • Per Topkin, Ben Zobrist isn’t in the lineup because his grandmother has passed away. It sounds like the Rays won’t put Zo on the bereavement list, so the plan must be for him to be back Tuesday.

    • Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Take Game One to the Rockies, 7-4

    The Rays’ Kelly Johnson is congratulated after hitting a two-run homer off Rockies reliever Matt Belisle in the 10th inning. (Photo courtesy of the Associated Press)
    The Rays’ Kelly Johnson is congratulated after hitting a two-run homer off Rockies reliever Matt Belisle in the 10th inning. (Photo courtesy of the Associated Press)

    My cousin and I got into a conversation about Coors Field about a week ago. In our conversation, we talked about how the thin air effects pitches, tending to flatten them out. Whereas a well struck pop-fly may find a home in the outfield stands. If ever there was a case where movement and location on pitches were at a premium, while the ball jumped off the bat, it was last night.

    Four home runs were hit Friday night: A pair by Nolan Arenado and Michael Cuddyer for the Rockies, and a pair by Desmond Jennings and Kelly Johnson. And though all four were well struck, none of them looked like homers off the bat. At the same time, there were other well struck fly-balls that seemed to be carrying, but stayed in the park. Confusing and somewhat disorienting? You betcha!

    Neither Matt Moore nor Jeff Francis had particularly good stuff on the mound. Both pitchers had their own issues with command, and both only lasted five innings. Batters weren’t missing Moore’s fastball, and the thin air made it hard to locate his curveball. Moore walked four and only struck out three, while giving up a season high four earned runs. And even though Francis gave up fewer hits and only walked one Tampa Bay batter, exited the game early with the score tied at four.

    Jamey Wright, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, Brandon Gomes, Kyle Farnsworth, and Fernando Rodney would all come on in relief, and hold a very potent Rockies to the four runs they scored in the front five. That doesn’t mean there weren’t opportunities for them to break the game wide open though. In the bottom of the eighth inning, the Rockies put up a serious threat against Jake McGee, something that we Rays fans are very familiar with this season.

    McGee struck out Arenado to start the inning, but then promptly gave up a pair of singles to give Colorado a chance to score the go ahead run with runners on first and third and one out. Troy Tulowitzki was sent in to pinch hit in the pitchers spot. Joe Maddon chose to intentionally walk Tulowitzki and let McGee pitch to Eric Young, ultimately getting a strikeout swinging. Gomes came in to face Jordan Pacheco, striking him out looking on a 2-2 breaking pitch and escaping the bases loaded jam. Farnsworth handled the ninth inning to send the game into extra innings.

    With the game tied at four a piece, Ben Zobrist lead off the Rays half of the inning by stinging a low liner up the third base line for a double. Evan Longoria promptly followed that up with an RBI single to center, handily scoring Zo from second. With a runner at first and one out (following a Matt Joyce pop-out to center), Kelly Johnson connected for a 406 ft. homer to center, giving Tampa Bay a three run lead. Enter Fernando Rodney.

    Rodney gave up a 1-0 single to Arenado to start the inning, but quickly got two outs; a fielder’s choice to erase Arenado, and a Jonathan Herrera strikeout looking. Reid Brignac came in to pinch hit, jumping all over an 0-2 high fastball for a hard hit single to right. With runners at the corners and the tying run at the plate, Rodney struck out Eric Young looking on a 3-2 pitch up in the zone.

    The New What Next

    David Price will look to get his second win of the season against Jon Garland, in an 8:10 game at Coors Field Saturday. You can read more on the match-up here.

    Rays 5/4/13 Starting Lineup

    Jennings CF
    Joyce RF
    Zobrist 2B
    Longoria 3B
    Loney 1B
    Johnson LF
    Escobar SS
    Molina C
    Price LHP

    Noteworthiness

    • My eyes were not deceiving me, Fernando Rodney threw a 79 MPH breaking pitch last night.
    • Matt Moore hit a sacrifice grounder in the fifth, moving Jose Lobaton to third. DesJen would plate a pair of runs in his next at-bat on a 422 ft homer to center.
    • Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria combined to go 3-8 with a pair of runs and a pair of runs batted in. Have I mentioned how much I like seeing them clumped together in the lineup?
    • The Rays were 4-9 wRISP Friday night, driving in a pair of two-out runs, while holding the Rockies to 0-9 wRISP.

    Rays 5/3/13 Starting Lineup

    Rays 5/3/13 Starting Lineup

    Jennings CF
    Roberts 2B
    Zobrist RF
    Longoria 3B
    Rodriquez 1B
    Johnson LF
    Escobar SS
    Lobaton C
    Moore LHP

    Noteworthiness

    The New What Next: Rays vs Rockies, A Series Preview of Sorts

    Snow falling at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)
    Snow falling at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City (Photo courtesy of Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

    The Rays left one winter wonderland yesterday for another, landing in a cold Denver for a three game set against the Colorado Rockies. Some have espoused the thought that Thursday’s rain-out/snow-out may have been the best outcome for the Rays who struggled mightily in Kansas City. Look at the bright side: The game was postponed in the fourth inning, so nothing counted, including Tampa Bay’s one run deficit going into the Royals half of the inning.

    The 12-15 Rays are 5-5 in their last 10, while the 17-11 Rockies are 4-6 in the same span of time. Tampa Bay sits seven-and-a-half games out of first going into Friday’s game, while the Rockies have a one game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the NL West. Oddly enough, if you compare the Rays and Rockies over the last 14 days (below), both teams production numbers are fairly similar.

    Rays vs Rockies series starters
    Rays vs Rockies series starters
    Rays and Rockies offensive production at home, away, and over the lat 14 days
    Rays and Rockies offensive production at home, away, and over the lat 14 days
    Rays and Rockies by the numbers
    Rays and Rockies by the numbers

    How the Rays Hitters Fare Against the Rockies Series Starters

    Jeff Francis: Per Rotowire, Francis (0-1, 5.25 ERA vs the Rays over the last three years) held the Diamondbacks to two runs on four hits over five innings Saturday but did not factor in the decision. Francis has an upper 80’s MPH fastball, a sinker that he tends to lean on when he’s ahead in the count, a cutter, a changeup, and a curveball that he tends to use when he’s ahead of left-handed hitters. A handful of the current Rays have put up some decent numbers against, posting a combined .303 BA/.370 OBP/.515 SLG/.885 OPS slash line in 66 official at-bats. Key match-ups: Desmond Jennings (3-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Kelly Johnson (7-15, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (4-6, 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Luke Scott (1-3, HR, 3 RBI), Ben Zobrist (2-5, 2B, RBI).

    Jon Garland: Per Rotowire, Garland lasted six innings Sunday, yielding four runs (three earned) on eight hits and two walks while striking out four, as Colorado fell again to Arizona. The Rays have never officially faced the 33 year-old RHP as a team, though a handful of players have experience against the fastball/sinker-ball pitcher. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (2-7, HR, 3 RBI), Jose Molina (3-6, 2B, RBI), Ryan Roberts (2-6), Luke Scott (6-13, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB).

    Tyler Chatwood: Per Rotowire, Chatwood (0-1, 7.36 ERA vs the Rays over the last three seasons) struck out five batters over six scoreless innings in Monday’s 12-2 thumping of the Dodgers. The 23 year-old hard throwing RHP tends to induce a lot of ground balls, especially with his sinker and his curveball. He has given up a few homers (18) in his short career on fastballs and sinkers left in the zone, and the Rays could have some success if they’re patient at the plate. Key match-ups: Matt Joyce (3-5, 3 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (1-4, 2B, BB).

    Noteworthiness

    • The Colorado Rockies have cooled off since a 13-4 start, having lost seven of 11 overall. Their productive offense will get tested Friday night against Matt Moore who’s seeking his sixth victory of the season. The Rockies lead the majors in batting average and hits while recording an NL-best 148 runs.
    • Matt Joyce’s bat has come alive, homering in three straight games for Tampa Bay, which has scored 28 runs in the last four contests. Joyce also hit a double in Thursday’s game, though that statistic was erased upon postponement of the game.
    • Tampa Bay has hit at least one home run in 16 consecutive games, belting 29 in that span.
    • Colorado has a solid bullpen, having allowed only three runs — none earned — in 24 1/3 innings on the seven-game road trip that just ended.
    • Colorado is 7-2 at home against Tampa Bay all-time in interleague play.
    • Unlike the Rays match-up against James Shields, I seriously doubt that anyone is going to get wistful when Reid Brignac comes to the plate this weekend. Good old Louisiana Lightning is posting a robust .250 BA/.308 OBP/.306 SLG/.614 slash line with a whopping three RBI.
    • The Rockies have been especially tough in Denver, winning nine of 12 while batting .311 with runners in scoring position.
    • Rockies starter Jeff Francis is 0-2 with a 12.60 ERA in his previous three starts before allowing two runs and four hits in five innings of a 3-2, 10-inning loss at Arizona on Saturday.
    • James Loney is 1 for 17 against Francis, though he’s 22 for 42 with a homer and nine RBIs in his last 14 games.