X-Rays Spex – Page 542 – A Below fWAR Rays Fan Site

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The “Beware the Ides of May” Edition

Well, three homers in one night, including a one run blast by Matt Joyce, was pretty good. Pitching? Hmm…

Another night, another Rays loss that didn’t need to be. The Rays pitching staff once again gave up an early lead, only to leave Tampa Bay on the wrong side of the win/loss column.

This time it was Jeremy Hellickson’s turn to crap the proverbial bed after the offense jumped out to an early 5-0 lead thanks in part to a pair of back-to-back Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist solo shots in the first inning. The Rays have now fallen to 12-15 on the season, and seven games out of first place.

Ultimately posting an attenuated 5.0 IP/9 H/4 R/4 ER/1BB/5 K/1 HR line on 91 pitches (58 for strikes), Hellickson started off the game off well, allowing two base runners on a pair of weakly hit balls in the front two innings. The Royals couldn’t convert those base runners, and the Rays looked like they were in command of things. And then the third, fourth, and fifth innings happened.

Hellickson would go on to give up four runs on six hits — three singles, a double, a triple, and an Elliot Johnson home run — a walk, and a hit by pitch over the course of three innings. Though his unraveling was less immediate than Cobb’s the day prior, it was no less destructive.

The once dependable Jake McGee came on in relief of Helly in the sixth and leant a hand in turning the Rays two-run lead into a three-run deficit. McGee quickly gave up a single to Salvador Perez and then proceeded to give up four more singles and a walk, relinquishing five runs before getting pulled in lieu of Kyle Farnsworth.

On a related note, Michael Valancius of DRaysBay looked at McGee’s outings in 2013 and found,

When a one pitch pitcher gets behind in the count, the batter will have a huge advantage. That has been Jake’s problem this year. Last year, McGee threw the ball in the zone 53.5% of the time. This year, he has hit the zone only 46.3% of the time. The percentage of times batters are swinging has dropped from 54.4% to 46.9%. Batter’s aren’t making more contact with his pitches in the zone; moreover, all of his contact stats are similar to last year. With two strikes last year, batter’s put the ball in play 20.77% of the time. This year, they are putting it in play 19.35% of the time. It is true that batters are fouling off instead of whiffing at pitches more often with two strikes this year, but the difference is not drastic.

Consider this: batters had 78 ABs against McGee last year in a two or three ball count. Of those at bats, 22% resulted in hits. This year, McGee has had 13 ABs in two or three ball counts. Batters are getting hits off of him 23% of the time in those situations. When you fall behind in the count, you are going to struggle. In order for McGee to succeed, he needs to command his fastball. When he does that, the walks will go down and (hopefully) the hits will follow suit.

I’d also imagine that the league has adjusted to him to some extent. His heat maps from the last two seasons look very similar, though he was much more effective last season than he has been this:

Jake McGee vs lefties in 2012 (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Jake McGee vs righties in 2013 (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball) — Jake McGee vs lefties in 2013 (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Jake McGee vs righties in 2012 (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

The combination of missing the zone at certain times, along with the hitters knowing what’s coming, have found a very hittable Jake McGee in 2013 thus far…one that we’re relatively unfamiliar with. Personally, I want back the McGee that was presumably being groomed for the 2014 closer spot; the one that was deadly in 2012.

The very unsure fielding by Yunel Escobar didn’t help the cause either. A pair of misplayed balls easily cost the Rays 2-to-3 runs. Ultimately though, the responsibility for the blown lead lay in the hands of Hellickson and McGee.

On the subject of the Rays blowing a five run lead, Todd Kalas tweeted,

May 1 is not the #Rays favorite day. Last time TB blew a five-run lead was 2 years ago today 5/1/2011 vs. ANA

Though we’re still relatively early into a young season, something has got to change if the Rays are going to be a plus .500 team, much less one vying for a playoff berth come September. Moving on.

The New What Next

The Rays will try to steal a game from the Royals, in an afternoon match-up with Roberto Hernandez on the mound. You can read about today’s match-up here. We’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

Rays 5/2/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Joyce RF
Zobrist 2B
Lngoria 3B
Loney 1B
Scott DH
Escobar SS
Molina C
Johnson LF
Hernandez RHP

Noteworthiness

All was not lost, the Rays offense looked pretty good. Three Rays went yard — back-to-back homers by Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist in the first, and a Luke Scott solo shot — extending the Rays streak to 16 consecutive games with a home run.
Per Marc Topkin via Twitter, “Umpire Tom Hallion, tweeting #Rays players (Price, Hellickson, Moore) will be fined by MLB stemming from Sunday incident. No suspensions” The fine for Price, Moore, and Hellickson was $1,000, while Halion was also fined for his actions and reaction. Cobb was not fined. We’ll talk more about this following today’s game.
The Royals are saying that every effort will be made to play today’s game — in part because the makeup possibilities are especially unappealing.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: “The Great Unraveling” Edition

Last night was James Shields’ night, plain and simple. Forget the fanfare surrounding the three players who returned to the lineup Tuesday — including Luke Scott who was playing his first game of the 2013 season. And forget that Alex Cobb seemed like a reasonable replacement for Big Game James. No, this was all Shields’ game. And to be fair Juego G deserved that W. With the exception of a shaky first inning, Shields dominated Tampa Bay, while the Rays pitching and defense relinquished yet another early lead.

Shields was, well…the Shields we all know so well; the Shields who is so good at collecting himself after a rocky inning only to right the ship, the bulldog that isn’t afraid to challenge hitters. More confounding however, was The Great Unraveling that was Alex Cobb’s start.

To say that Cobb sailed through the first five innings is like saying concrete is hard. Cobb was outstanding early on. Giving up four hits in the front five innings while striking out five, Cobb retired nine batters in a row at one point. But the bottom fell out with two outs in the sixth. Cobb gave up six consecutive hits (three singles, two doubles, and a two-run Mike Moustakas home-run to right field) and four runs. And with the Rays down 4-2 in the sixth, Joe Maddon made the decision to pull Cobb for Jamey Wright.

So what happened?

If you listened to the Big Dog Steve Duemig, a pair of theories were pounded into your head: A) Cobb was Tipping his pitches, and/or B) Shields relayed insider information to the Royals hitters.

Granted Cobb had been known to tip his pitches in the past, I really don’t think that to be the case last night. Nor do I think it’s reasonable to assume that Cobb’s unraveling was solely predicated on Shields insider information. Sure, I’ll give credence to the thought that the Royals knew what was coming as BA noted, however I think they knew what was coming because he became too predictable with his curveball, not because of Duemig’s theories. Enter Robbie Knopf of Rays Colored Glasses,

Through 5 innings, Alex Cobb had been rolling, allowing no runs on 4 hits, striking out 5 while walking none. A major part of that was his curveball. He was able to use it to continuously to keep hitters off-balance, using it 6 times in the first 5 innings to get called strikes, all on the first pitch or second pitch of at-bats. Then Cobb started Alcides Escobar with a curveball for a strike in the 6th on his way to forcing him to groundout. At that point, the Royals had seen enough. Cobb was keeping Kansas City hitters off-balance with his curveball, but it really was not that great of a pitch, being left in hittable zones far too often. They only couldn’t hit it because they weren’t expecting it. But they had a trick in their back pocket to counteract that–sitting curveball on first pitches and on 0-1.

According to Brooks Baseball, Cobb threw his curveball 40% of the time on the first pitch and 36% of the time on 0-1, both more than any of his other pitches. And the Royals were not going to let him get away with getting ahead in the count against them on a mediocre offering. With 2 outs and nobody on in the 6th, Eric Hosmer saw Cobb’s first-pitch curveball coming and smacked it to left field for a double. Lorenzo Cain wasn’t fooled either when Cobb went to the curve on 0-1 against him and laced a single to left field to make it a 2-1 game. And with Cobb forsaking his curveball knowing that it wasn’t fooling anyone, he threw first-pitch fastballs to each of the next three hitters, missing each time, and on 1-0 was forced to resort to the pitch he used the least in that count, his split-change. The results were disastrous. Mike Moustakas drilled a homer to make it 3-2 before Jeff Francoeur doubled and Salvador Perez singled to make it 4-2. Jamey Wright came in to finally escape the jam. The message here is simple: Cobb has to change his approach or hitters will take advantage.

Alex Cobb curveball location (Courtesy of Texas Leaguers)

As you can see in the chart above, good number of Cobb’s curveballs are nestled nicely in the zone. He isn’t particularly deceptive with the location of his breaking pitches. Rather Cobb fools the batter with the decision of when to throw breaking pitches. Cobb initially found a ton of success by leaning on his curveball 76% of the time early in the count (0-0, or 0-1). However, it was inevitable that the league would eventually adjust to Cobb, and that the Royals did in spades last night. Cobb’s task now is to find a way to adjust back. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts in a mere five days from now.

Moving forward.

The New What Next

Jeremy Hellickson will get the start Wednesday night against Luis Mendoza and the Royals, as the Rays attempt to against get within a game of .500. You can read more on the match-up here.

Rays 5/1/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Joyce RF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Scott DH
Lobaton C
Johnson LF
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness

After pulling an 0’fer in his first night back from the DL, Luke Scott is again in the lineup, hitting seventh. I mean, anyone’s better than Shelley Duncan, right? The Rays have Kelly Johnson in LF and Ben Zobrist at 2B (Joyce in RF) with a fly ball pitcher — Jeremy Hellickson — on the mound.
Matt Joyce’s first inning jack Tuesday night kept the Rays streak of (now) 14 consecutive games with a home run alive.
James Loney had his fifth game of the season with three or more hits Tuesday night, tying Jed Lowrie of the Athletics for most in majors.
We LOVE the must read article by DRaysBay’s Daniel Russell titled, The Problem with Assumptions. Here’s a little snippet:

Every year, Tampa Bay fans have to endure article after article slamming the area for its poor attendance, with the not-so-subtle undertone that fans down here just don’t care. Well, we do care. We do exist. And we don’t appreciate our city—our fans—our team being slapped around like this.

Rays 4/30/13 Starting Lineup, Etc

The Rays look to split the first full month of the 2013 season tonight, in the first game of a three game set against the Kansas City Royals. Expect a few familiar faces in the Royals lineup tonight — James Shields will get the start on the mound while Elliot Johnson will be playing second and hitting ninth.

Rays 4/30/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Zobrist RF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Scott DH
Molina C
Roberts 2B
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

As expected, the Rays DFA’d Shelley Duncan in order to make room for Luke Scott who was reactivated from the DL today. Robbie Knopf of Rays Colored Glasses posed the question: With Duncan ostensibly getting ye old heave ho, Could the Rays be interested in Casper Wells? He makes some good points.
Yunel Escobar and Jose Molina are also both back in lineup after a pair of respective minor hamstring injuries.
Haven’t checked out our series preview? Well, what are you waiting for?
So uh…where are you planning on watching the game tonight? Some of us will be at the Old Northeast Tavern, and we’d love to hang out, drink some beers, and have some fun!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: A Kerfuffle and A Win in Chicago, Onward to Kansas City

Evan Longoria pads the Rays’ lead to 8-3 with a ninth-inning double off White Sox reliever Deunte Heath that lands just inside the foul line in left and brings in Matt Joyce from third base. (Photo courtesy of the Associated Press)

The Rays walked away from Chicago Sunday having given David Price his first victory of the season, while also salvaging the last two games of their previous four game set following an 8-3 win against the White Sox.

Having gone deep into the game for the second consecutive time, Price posted a solid 7 IP/6 H/3 R/3 ER/2 BB/9 K/1 HR slash line on 119 pitches (69 for strikes). The Rays ace looked shaky in the first and third after a pair of 20-plus pitch innings in which Chicago scored three runs on four hits. However Price settled in in the fourth, and the White Sox managed only a single and walk over the next four innings, while striking out five times. Price noticeably went into attack mode following Paul Konerko’s third inning two run homer, leaning on his fastball with success. Price’s fastball topped out at 96 MPH, and it was good to see it sit around 94 MPH. And even though Price threw his changeup sparingly — just seven times — he did so with success, recording six strikes and four whiffs.

The Rays allowed all the White Sox runs with two outs, giving them the lead twice in the game. But that’s where the Rays offense kicked in.

Trailing 3-1 in the top of the sixth, Desmond Jennings lead the inning off with a ground rule double to center. Matt Joyce quickly followed that up with a 361 foot blast to right-field, tying the game. Tampa Bay took the lead in the eighth when Ben Zobrist singled home Sean Rodriguez who initially reached base on a single, and moved to second on a wild pitch.

With two on and one out, Evan Longoria walked to load the bases. Ryan Roberts came up to face Jesse Crain (who came on in relief of Matt Thornton) after James Loney flied out to center. Roberts hit a pop up to short right field that Alex Rios simply dropped, allowing both Joyce and Zobrist to score. The Rays took a 6-3 lead that they’d never relinquish.

The Tampa Bay Rays would tack on two more runs in the ninth on another late-in-the-game two-out rally (of sorts), and Fernando Rodney closed things out.

The game was not without controversy though. In the seventh inning, with Dewayne Wise at the plate, Price threw a pitch which looked to be right over the plate for what would’ve been strike three. Home plate umpire Tom Halion didn’t see things that way, and called the pitch a ball.

This pitch doesn't look outside to me. — This pitch doesn’t look off the plate to me.

Price shook it off and got Wise to hit a come-backer to end the inning. Visibly upset, Price marched straight to the dugout when something caught his attention in the direction of home plate.

Click this to be redirected to video of Tom Halion ejecting Jeremy Hellickson.

David Price seemed unhappy with home plate umpire Tom Hallion as he came off the mound. After some words were exchanged, the typically mild mannered Jeremy Hellickson got ejected. Per Mark Topkin, Price said he said nothing to provoke Hallion and the bench was upset because Hallion told him to “throw the ball over the f-in plate.”

A series of accusations and tweets followed the game.

Rays players’ tweets on umpire Tom Hallion, who says Price is lying about him cursing

Someone give me the definition of a coward please

Someone please give me the definition of accountability…

Think our entire dugout would ERUPT cause an ump told me to throw the ball over the plate? No, I’m sorry that wouldnt happen #accountability.

— David Price, @DAVIDprice14

There’s only one person lying about all this and his name starts with a T and rhymes with pom

— Jeremy Hellickson, @JHell58

Unbelievable someone would mis remember so quickly. Stay in your lane. Nobody cares what you have to say. #tom

— Matt Moore, @MattyMoe55

Stephanie Katz of DRaysBay did a little sleuthing and found that this wasn’t Halion’s first bout with controversy,

This also wasn’t the first time that umpire Tom Hallion has been involved in controversy. Per Baseball Reference, Hallion was once ejected in 1999 in which he bumped both a Rockies player and coach after the Rockies pitcher had argued a check-swing call with the third base umpire. Hallion was suspended three games for the incident. Later that year, Hallion and 56 other umpires resigned as part of a strategy to raise umpires salaries. MLB called the bluff and accepted the resignations. Hallion would not return as an umpire with MLB until 2004.

Whatever the case, it will be interesting to see how Major League Baseball handles this situation, though we may not see anything publicly; discipline against umpires is often — but not always — handled internally.

Per Marc Topkin,

MLB officials are looking into Sunday’s incident and accusations between Price and Hallion. The ultimate decision on any discipline would come from Joe Torre, along with input from Peter Woodfork and Joe Garagiola Jr.

Disciplining Hallion is one possibility – based on the initial accusation of cursing at Price, and then if that is found to be true for then calling Price a liar.

But Price and several other Rays players, such as Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore, could also be disciplined for violating MLB’s social media policy given their tweets after the game.

The MLB policy, introduced last year, specifies that players may not display or transmit “content that questions the impartiality of or otherwise denigrates a Major League umpire.”

Moving forward.

The New What Next

Following an off-day Monday, Tampa Bay will be in Kansas City for a three game set against the Royals, including the heavily anticipated match-up between James Shields and Alex Cobb on Tuesday. Tampa Bay will try to continue their winning ways of the last third of April, though it won’t be easy: the AL Central leading Royals are 13-9 (as of Monday) and seem to be a vastly improved team after, ahem, a few key off-season acquisitions.

Rays and Royals offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days. *Note: That should read 44 wRC*

Rays and Royals by the numbers. Note: That should read + — Rays and Royals by the numbers. *Note: That should read +2.4*

How the Rays Hitters Fare Against the Royals Series Starters

James Shields: Per Rotowire, Shields struck out eight batters and allowed one run over six innings against the Red Sox on Saturday. Only a handful of Rays have faced Shields, and those that have haven’t fared well. Those Rays have posted a .247 BA/.298 OBP/.371 SLG/.669 OPS slash line in 97 official at-bats, with a grand total of eight extra base-hits; six doubles and two homers. Luke Scott accounts for four of the doubles and one of the homers, as he could play an integral role Tuesday night with an imminent return from the DL being nigh. We all know what Shields is capable of, and we’d be foolish to expect any less from Juego G. We still love you Shieldsy…just not when you face the Rays.

Luis Mendoza: The Rays haven’t seen much of Mendoza (0-1, 4.15 ERA against the Rays over a three year span), 4.1 innings of work in the last three seasons to be exact. Tampa Bay has been able to beat up on Mendoza in a limited number of at-bats, posting a combined .286 BA/.378 OBP/.464 SLG/.843 OPS slash line. Key match-ups: Kelly Johnson (2-3, RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (2-3, 2B, BB), Sean Rodriguez (1-1, 2B).

Ervin Santana: Per Rotowire, Santana threw seven scoreless innings against the Indians on Saturday to earn his third win of the season. Tampa Bay has been a thorn in the side of Ervin Santana (1-2, 6.61 ERA against the Rays over a three year span) the last few seasons, posting a combined .279 BA/.336 OBP/.519 SLG/.855 OPS slash line, with eight homers and 22 RBI’s in 129 at-bats. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (7-17, 2B, 4 RBI, BB), Desmond Jennings (1-3, HR, RBI), Matt Joyce (4-14, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), James Loney (5-14, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (5-12, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB), Luke Scott (8-21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB).

Noteworthiness

The Rays have now hit home runs in 14 consecutive games.
Per MLB.com, Since June 20, 2011, Evan Longoria has 49 homers and 149 RBIs in 188 games. During this span, he leads the Majors with 4.69 at-bats per RBI, and ranks third with 14.16 at-bats per home run. Only Toronto’s Jose Bautista (12.44) and Colorado’s Wilin Rosario (14.11) have more.
Tampa Bay will likely get back Luke Scott, Yunel Escobar, and Jose Molina Tuesday. Scott looks to be fully healed from a strained right calf that’s kept him out this season. Neither Escobar nor Molina were in the lineup Sunday, with Escobar last suiting up on Wednesday. Molina was available in an emergency. Maddon hopes to have both back in the lineup against the Royals.
In the Royals first 21 games, the starters have gone six or more innings 17 times.
Royals lowered their team ERA to 2.96 — the best in the Majors — following a shutout in the first game of the doubleheader on Sunday.
Also per MLB.com, Tuesday’s start marks Cobb’s third career start against the Royals, all at Kauffman Stadium. He is 1-1 with a 4.80 ERA (15 innings, eight earned runs). In his last outing on June 25, 2012, he threw his first career complete game, and was the first of its kind in 16 years. Cobb allowed a career-high 13 hits and eight runs over eight innings, while the Rays were shut out, 8-0; it was the first complete game with 13 or more hits and eight or more runs since Tim Wakefield did it in 1996 with the Red Sox.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Crush the White Sox, 10-4

Ben Zobrist gets a pat on the back and a smile from Matt Joyce after hitting a two-run homer in the first inning. (Photo courtesy of Associated Press)

I wrote yesterday, “If anyone on the staff is capable of pulling the Rays out of this funk, it is Moore.” Holy moly, those words held true, in spades, Saturday night!

A sputtering Rays offense snapped back to life, scoring a season high 10-runs on 19 hits, while Matt Moore absolutely dominated the White Sox, posting a 6 IP/3 H/1 R/1 ER/1 BB/9 K/1 HR slash line on 101 pitches (61 for strikes).

You can read a bulleted highlight reel of sorts below. If you want a fairly detailed account, check out DRaysBay game recap. You can also see a blow by blow account via the X-Rays Spex Tumblr page.

Matt Moore…what else can I say about the young lefty that hasn’t already been said? After walking the first batter of the game, Moore struck out the next six hitters in a row and carried a no-no into the fourth. Moore also retired 11 batters in a row at one point. He got ahead of the hitters and effectively located his pitches, throwing his fastball and a deadly curve for strikes. Moore became the third American League pitcher under age 24 to go 5-0 in April, along with Greg Swindell (1988) and Babe Ruth (1917).
A season high 10 runs, on a season high 19 hits! Everyone in the Rays lineup contributed in some way. Every batter reached base safely at least one time, while all but Shelley Duncan, Jose Molina (pulled from the game early), and Sam Fuld crossed the plate. Furthermore, everyone but Matt Joyce, Duncan, Molina, and Fuld drove in runs.
After hitting only five homers as a team going into Boston a few weeks back, the Rays have become a home run mashing team, hitting at least a homer in each of the last twelve games. Ben Zobrist and Desmond Jennings were the lucky recipients of distinction Saturday, cranking a pair of homers accounting for three of the Rays 10 runs. Zobrist hit his second homer of the year, a two run blast off Gavin Floyd in the first inning, while Jennings went yard for the third time this season, hitting a solo opposite-field shot in the third.
Kelly Johnson had a huge night at the plate, going 4-for-5 with a run and a pair of RBI’s. He also hit the Rays second triple of the year up the right-field line off Hector Santiago in the seventh.
The 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup — Zobrist, Longoria, and Loney — went a combined 9-for-16 with five runs, five RBI’s, a walk, three doubles, and a home-run Saturday night.
Tampa Bay went 7-for-18 wRISP, converting nearly 40% of runners into runs.
Per Topkin, The big night allowed the Rays to show off their new team gesture, players who get a big hit doing a modified version of the arrow shot by closer Fernando Rodney at the end of games.
Rays catcher Jose Molina was removed from the game early after being hit in the knee by a pitch in the fourth inning. He was later diagnosed with a right hamstring contusion and is day-to-day.

The New What Next

David Price (0-2, 5.40 ERA) will take another stab at the coveted first win of the year Sunday against Dylan Axelrod (0-1, 3.80 ERA) and the White Sox. You can read more on the match-up here.

Rays 4/28/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Joyce RF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Roberts 2B
Johnson DH
Lobaton C
Rod LF
Price LHP