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The New What Next: Enter the Red Sox

Sam Fuld makes a catch at the top of the wall against the San Diego Padres. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

Come Tuesday, the 19-18 Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the 22-16 Boston Red Sox into the Trop, for the first game of a three game set against their AL East rivals. The surging Rays look to make up some ground in the East against a struggling Red Sox team who have gone 2-8 over a 10 game span. If Tampa Bay can take the series, they’ll waltz into Baltimore at least three games over .500, and tied with the Red Sox for third place. This promises to be a big series.

Rays and Red Sox offensive production at home, away, and over the last 10 days

Rays Hitters Vs. the Red Sox Series Starters

John Lackey: Per Rotowire, “Lackey took the loss Thursday, giving up five runs (one earned) and six hits with eight strikeouts over seven innings.” God bless John Lackey. You’ve almost go to feel sorry for the Red Sox RHP. He is 12-6 against the Rays overall, but 3-5 with a 7.27 ERA over the last eight meetings. We all know the old adage well, Lackey loses 5 MPH of velocity every time he pitches with his mouth open. The current Rays have posted a .277 BA/.358 OBP/.462 SLG/.820 OPS slash line against the Red Sox gape-mouthed starter, with five homers and nine doubles in 150 combined at-bats. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (5-11, 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Matt Joyce (4-13, HR, 3 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (7-25, 3 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-5), Luke Scott (6-16, 3 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (8-20, 2 RBI, 3 2B, 5 BB).

Jon Lester: Per Rotowire, “Lester was brilliant Friday night, firing a one-hitter in a 5-0 win over Toronto. He struck out five and did not walk a batter.” The dangerous Jon Lester posted a 7 IP/5 H/1 R/1 ER/1 BB/5 K slash line against the Rays back in April; but that was against a less productive Rays team, and Lester has cooled off somewhat following a torrid start to the season. Lester has given up 11 cumulative runs in three of his last four starts, not that that makes him any less potent. His splits against the Rays speak for themselves, as does Tampa Bay’s .214 BA/.299 OBP/.301 SLG/.600 OPS slash line against Lester. Key Match-ups: Yunel Escobar (8-26, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Matt Joyce (2-5, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Jose Molina (6-18, 2 BB).

Felix Doubront: Per Rotowire, “Doubront’s next start will come next Thursday against Tampa Bay, the Providence Journal reports. He’ll be working on seven days rest.” Doubront is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA against the Rays over the last three years, with Tampa Bay posting a combined .301 BA/.402 OBP/.452 SLG/.854 OPS slash line in 73 at-bats. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (4-10, BB), Desmond Jennings (2-5, 2B, 2 BB), Kelly Johnson (3-11, 2 RBI, 2 BB), Matt Joyce (1-2, BB), James Loney (1-3, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-6, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Sean Rodriguez (3-9, 3B, BB), Luke Scott (2-6, 2 HR, 2 RBI), Ben Zobrist (3-12, 2 RBI, BB).

Noteworthiness

The Rays have gone 7-3 in their last ten games, while the Red Sox have cooled off significantly, going 2-8 in the same span.
The Rays relievers have posted a 1.15 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 15-2/3 innings during the current winning streak, including three shutout innings against San Diego on Sunday. In addition, Cesar Ramos has quietly become one of the more potent relievers on the staff, going nine consecutive innings without giving up a run or an earned run.
Tampa Bay is averaging 6.4 runs in their last 14 games, while the Red Sox are averaging just under four runs per game in the same span.
The Red Sox have lost 8 of 10 after a 12-4 loss to the Blue Jays on Sunday, distancing themselves from a 20-8 start.
Tampa Bay is now eight in total runs with 175, a mere six runs behind the Red Sox who started the season on a tear.
Per Tommy Rancel of the Process Report, “After a horrific start to the week, the Rays are riding a five-game win streak as the Red Sox come to town. Evan Longoria (.333/.403/.610) and James Loney (.376/.429/.560) are leading the way while the bullpen closed the week with 13 2/3 scoreless innings.”
The Red Sox are hitting .163 with runners in scoring position the past 10 games.
Boston won the first three meetings this year at Fenway Park in an April. They lead overall 153-109, including 67-63 at Tropicana Field.
It’s the Sox turn to have a shaky bullpen. Boston lost closer Joel Hanrahan to season-ending surgery on his right arm,while Andrew Bailey (strained right biceps) still on the disabled list.
Evan Longoria has been named the AL Player of the Week after posting a .464 BA with five doubles, three home runs, 11 RBI, eight runs scored and four walks over the last seven days.
Per MLB Trade Rumors, “The Rays have signed Cory Wade to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A Durham.” MLB Trade Rumors also noted that Wade, who turns 30 at the end of the month, spent the 2011-12 seasons pitching out of the Yankees’ bullpen. He posted a 4.23 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in that time, but the two seasons were wildly different. In 39 2/3 innings for the Bombers in 2011, Wade posted a pristine 2.04 ERA. That number rose by more than four runs in 2012 as he finished with a 6.46 ERA in an even 39 innings. Wade was previously with the Rays organization in 2011.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Sweep the Padres

Tampa Bay Rays James Loney in congratulated in the dug out after hitting a home run to make the score 4 to 2 against the San Diego Padres during the 8th inning at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg Sunday afternoon. (Photo courtesy of Dirk Shadd/Tampa Bay Times )

What a difference a few days make. Five days ago, we were looking at a Rays team that had dropped two games after holding a pair of sizeable leads. And though the offense was strong, the pitching was shaky at best — especially the bullpen. Fast forward to Mother’s Day. The Rays completed a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres and are over .500 for the first time this season. What’s more, they look primed to to do damage against their AL East Rivals this week, the Boston Red Sox.

Backed by a stellar defense, above average pitching, and timely hitting, the Rays looked like the Rays of old Sunday afternoon. Though starter Roberto Hernandez had a pair of shaky innings in the fourth and fifth, he was good overall, throwing six innings of two-run baseball. Hernandez limited the Padres’ offense to a pair of two one-run innings, giving the Rays a chance to stay in the game. The veteran righty posted a 6.0 IP/5 H/2 R/2 ER/2 BB/4 K/1 HR slash line, working primarily off his sinker which he threw for strikes 66% of the time, while generating seven ground outs.

The much maligned Jake McGee would come on in relief of Hernandez in the seventh inning, putting together his second solid 1-2-3 inning of the last three days. Here’s to hope that this is the mark of a trend for the Rays left handed reliever. After Joel Peralta handled the eighth inning, the plantain wielding Fernando Rodney came on to close out the game in the ninth. Rodney still hasn’t put together a clean inning this season after giving up a two-out walk to Jesus Guzman. He, however, struck out two Sunday and has — by all accounts — regained his velocity and control. Though purely anecdotal, I’m a firm believer that his placement on the rubber has had a drastic effect on the location of his pitches. He recently shifted back to the first base side of the the rubber, and his last few outings have been vastly improved.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge the Rays outstanding glove work. Sam Fuld made an excellent leaping catch at the wall in the first inning, easily robbing Will Venable of a double. Not to be outdone, Yunel Escobar made a diving stop — ranging to his left — to end the sixth inning. And Matt Joyce made his best Willie Mays impersonation, making an over the shoulder basket catch, robbing Chris Denorfia of at least a double in the ninth.

The Rays offense was held largely in check by the soft tossing Eric Stults, who did a good job of inducing weakly hit ground-outs and pop-outs in his 5-1/3 innings of work. Tampa Bay was able to take advantage if him, scoring the bulk of their runs in the second and sixth innings. With the bases loaded and one out in the second, Jose Molina hit a sac fly to plate the Rays first run of the day. In the sixth inning, Evan Longoria lead things off with a double to deep left center, and was moved to third on a James Loney fly-ball. Sean Rodriguez plated the tying run, hitting a soft single into center field to. Yunel Escobar followed that up with an RBI double off the right field wall. James Loney added an insurance run in the bottom of the eighth inning, blasting a 392 ft. homer to right field — his second home run in as many days.

The Tampa Bay Rays are now 19-18, over .500 for the first time this season. They’re also on a five game winning streak. Tampa Bay will start an important three game set against the BoSox Tuesday, at Tropicana Field. We’ll have a series preview for you Monday, dear readers.

Looking Backward While Forward: The Win That Almost Wasn’t

Thankfully Longo came to the plate with a runner on and two outs in the ninth. Otherwise, the outcome of Saturday's game would have been vastly different. — Thankfully Longo came to the plate with a runner on and two outs in the ninth, otherwise, the outcome of Saturday’s game would have been vastly different. (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times)

Going into the seventh inning Saturday night, Jeremy Hellickson appeared to be on cruise-control. The Rays were up 6-2 and he’d given up only two runs on three hits, while retiring 16 consecutive batters — including six strikeouts. But then Helly did something that he’d done a few times this season: he gave up four or more runs, evaporating the Rays sizable lead.

ESPN’s seventh inning synopsis sums things up well:

The culprit? Hellickson leaned heavily on his changeup because his fastball location was off. As Robbie Knopf of DRaysBay put it,

Helickson’s bread and butter is his fastball and his changeup, and when he stops using one, he’s a vastly inferior pitcher. Hellickson’s changeup is clearly his best pitch, but he has to learn to trust his fastball more or he will be in serious trouble moving forward.

Though the Rays would eke out an 8-7 victory, thanks to an Evan Longoria two-run walk-off homer in the ninth, the ultimate outcome was vastly different than that which was (practically) written in the cards. This should have been a relatively easy victory, and Helly should never have blown a big lead for Tampa Bay. It sounds redundantly familiar.

Joe Maddon was incensed, calling out a faltering Jeremy Hellickson,

“I’m not happy with that,” Maddon said. “I’m not happy with that. I’m going to tell you, I’m not happy with that. Nooooo, I’m not happy with that. That’s inappropriate. That’s got to stop. We’re better than that. We want to play in October, we got to be better than that. That cannot happen. You’re not going to be lucky, you got to be good.”

Maddon went on to say,

“(With) Guzman, he should have been able to do something right there,” Maddon said. “I felt very strongly. … He’s better than all of that. He had it on cruise control. He pitched very well. One walk, eight punchouts, but right there under those circumstances he has the ability to put that hitter away right there and get himself a win.”

On a positive note, every Ray contributed to the win that almost wasn’t. Though neither Luke Scott nor Ben Zobrist had a hit on the night, their walks proved to be big — especially Zobrist’s ninth inning walk which resulted in the Rays tying and winnings runs.

Moving forward.

The New What Next

Roberto Hernandez and the Tampa Bay Rays will take on Eric Stults and and the Padres in the final game of this three game set. Hernandez is coming of his best outing of the year and another solid outing will surely factor into things, as the Rays attempt to get over the .500 hump for the first time this season ahead of the upcoming series against the Red Sox. Plus, a sweep on Mother’s Day would be excellent! Read more on today’s match-up here.

Rays 5/12/13 Starting Lineup

Roberts 3B
Johnson LF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria DH
Loney 1B
Rodriguez RF
Escobar SS
Molina C
Fuld CF
Hernandez RHP

Noteworthiness

Happy Mother’s Day to all the mothers out there, including my own!

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Rally Past Padres, 6-3

Caption contest, anyone? (Photo courtesy of the Tampa Bay Times)

The Tampa Bay Rays took game one of a three game set against the San Diego Padres by a score of 6-3 Friday night, a game that would go down in annals of MLB history. To be fair, it was an odd game to say the least.

On one hand, Alex Cobb only lasted 4-2/3 innings — breaking the streak of Rays starting pitchers lasting at least five innings –throwing 117 pitches (77 for strikes) with 33 coming in the first inning alone. On the other hand, he struck out 13 in his 4-2/3 innings outing, and became the first pitcher in MLB history to strike out 13 while working less than five innings. And though Cobb put the Rays behind early on — thanks to a pair of solo homers and a balk — he was downright whiffy overall, inducing 23 swinging strikes (21 on the changeup, 43% swung at and missed) and striking out 56.5% of the batters he faced. And if that isn’t weird enough, Cobb became the first pitcher in at least 100 years to face four batters in an inning, strikeout all four, and still allow a run. Efficiency aside, Cobb was deadly Friday night.

Just look at the strikezone plot of his at bat results:

Think back to the Rays/Yankees game last season, when David Price was lauded for his five inning heavy-lifting outing. I’d reckon that Cobb may have bested him last night.

The bullpen handily picked up where Cobb left off, with Josh Lueke, Jake McGee, Joel Peralta and Fernando Rodney combining for 4-1/3 innings of no hit, two walk, five strikeout ball. Lueke was on fire. Having been called up from Durham for the injured Brandon Gomes, no one expected Lueke to take the hill Friday night due to a 29 pitch outing the previous night. Low and behold, Maddon called him into the game with two outs in the fifth. Leuke threw 1.1 innings of perfect ball, striking out two along the way. Jake McGee followed in the seventh with a bounce back performance, looking like the Jake McGee of old. Perhaps a couple days of boded well for the left handed reliever.

Offensively speaking, the Rays kept on it’s torrid pace. Consider that Tampa Bay posted a combined .292 BA/.355 OBP/.477 SLG/.832 OPS slash line over the last 14 days, scoring 73 runs and driving in 68 RBI going into last night’s match-up. The Rays now lead MLB with 124 runs scored in their last 22 games.

Runs were at a premium in the first six innings, with the Rays scoring only two runs on three hits, a few walks and a wild pitch. Then in the seventh inning — with the team down by one — the offense came alive.

If a picture speaks a thousand words, this one should speak volumes:

Rays seventh inning summary (Courtesy of ESPN)

The New What Next

Tampa Bay will try to extend its winning streak to four against the hard throwing Burch Smith and the San Diego Padres. Hellboy is scheduled to take the hill for the Rays. You can read more on the match-up here.

Rays 5/11/13 Starting Lineup

Joyce RF
Johnson LF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Scott DH
Fuld CF
Lobaton C
Escobar SS
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness

Desmond Jennings is out of the lineup again today. He is reportedly experiencing some soreness.
Put this in your pipe and smoke it: Evan Longoria is hitting .524 with 9 RBI five games into the 10-game home-stand.

The New What Next: Bring on the Friars!

The Tampa Bay Rays will welcome the San Diego Padres to Tropicana Field Friday night for a three game set, following a pair of big wins against the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday and Thursday. The Rays are again just a couple of games under .500, and look primed to change that this weekend against a suddenly hot Padres team.

Allow me to hand out a few kudos before I move on to the series preview:

Pricey looked like Pricey Thursday night. Though the Rays ace didn’t get the win, he prevailed in the matchup against friend R.A. Dickey, in what was the third-ever meeting of reigning Cy Young Award winners. Price was aggressive, attacking the Jays with his fastball, and his velocity was closer to normal, hitting 94 mph regularly and 95 mph multiple times. Working eight innings for the second time this season, Price allowed four runs (two earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out eight, on 117 pitches (82 for strikes).
Fernando Rodney and Kyle Farnsworth looked, gasp… good! Even though Rodney didn’t have a clean inning — allowing two base runners — his location was much closer to his 2012 norm, and his fastball was crisp. Topping out at 100 MPH several times, Rodney struck out Melky Cabrera on a 100 MPH fastball to end the ninth with two Jays on base. As for Farnsworth, I’ll gladly take his contribution of a 1-2-3 inning.
Considering that Tampa Bay could only get one hit off Dickey last year, that they were able to tag him for three runs (two earned) on five hits and five walks almost seems like a minor miracle. Though the Rays gave up a two-run lead, they were able to scratch out runs in the third and the seventh innings to tie the game. They were also able to eke out the game winning run on a Luke Scott two-out bases loaded walk-off walk in the 10th, off an erratic Brad Lincoln.

Rays and Padres offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days

Edinson Voloquez: A Former pitcher on the Reds staff, Volquez throws about 60% fastballs along with a substantial number of change-ups and curveballs. His sinker, and especially his curveball, induce a lot of ground balls. Voloquez gets lots of whiffs on his pitches. Per JinAZ of the Red Reporter, “All except his curve have above-average swing-and-miss %’s, and his change-up is particularly amazing (almost double the typical whiff rate of the other pitches).” The right-hander won at Tropicana Field in 2011 in his only career start against the Rays, giving up three runs and four hits over 6 1-3 innings in a 4-3 victory while with the Reds. Tampa Bay has posted a .240 BA/.387 OBP/.460 SLG/.847 against Voloquez (1-0, 4.26 ERA vs the Rays over the last three seasons), though te current Rays haven’t much experience against him, just a mere 50 at-bats. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (3-11, 2B), Kelly Johnson (4-12, 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Evan Longoria (1-3, 2B, 2 RBI), Jose Molina (3-6, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, BB).

Burch Smith: Per Rotowire, “Smith will be called up from Double-A San Antonio to start Saturday against the Rays, the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.” Scouts have noted Smith’s lighting quick arm, and he has touched 100 MPH in favorable conditions. Per the scouting report, “(Smith’s) delivery shows a decent amount of deception and is capped off by low arm slot; employs a “drop and drive” style in delivery which is somewhat concerning for future control and currently causes him to pitch up in the zone; decent secondary offerings including a changeup with sink and a looping curveball. Smith has been nothing short of fantastic in his Double-A debut, striking out 10.73 batters per nine innings and walking just 1.38. While he continues to pitch up in the zone, Smith has only allowed one home run in 26 innings of work. There is legitimate concern that as he faces more advanced hitters Smith’s pitching style will become less effective, but his mix of deception and velocity will carry him into the Padres rotation at some point in 2013.”

Eric Stults: Per Rotowire, “Stults tossed 6.1 innings of one-run ball Tuesday, yielding seven hits and two walks while tallying four strikeouts, as San Diego fended off Miami.” The current Rays have only accrued 10 total at-bats against the veteran left-hander. A journeyman of sorts, Stults pitched 63 games over four years with four different teams: Dodgers, Rockies, Blue Jays and White Sox. He was picked up by the Padres in 2012 because he could be plugged into the rotation or be slotted as a long reliever in the bullpen. The soft throwing lefty probably won’t get a lot of strikeouts Sunday as he’s want to get a lot of contact. Key Match-ups: Kelly Johnson (1-3), Ryan Roberts (2-6).

Noteworthiness

San Diego owns an identical 16-18 record as the Rays, having won six victories in its last seven contests, including four straight.
The Padres have given up only two runs in the last four games and their pen ranks near the top of the National League in ERA (2.87).
Since going 0-3 with an 11.68 ERA over his first three starts, Edinson Volquez is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA over his last four.
The Rays have scored 72 runs over its last 11 games while batting .301 with 15 homers.
Per Marc Topkin,

“The Padres are coming off a sweep of the Marlins and have won 11 of their past 14 after a 5-15 start. 3B Chase Headley is the key to their lineup, hitting .320 with a .935 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. OF Carlos Quentin, a former Stanford teammate of Rays OF Sam Fuld, is known for hitting and getting hit. He was hit an MLB-most 17 times last season. 1B Yonder Alonso leads the team in homers (four, with Will Venable) and RBIs (22). The pitching has improved, with a 3.19 ERA over the 14-game run after a rough start. LHP Clayton Richard and OF Cameron Maybin are among the Padres on the DL. Manager Bud Black is a friend and former Angels colleague of Rays manager Joe Maddon.”

Chase Headley is on a 13-game hitting streak, and has a .400 average in that stretch.
The Rays are tied with the Padres in their series at six games a piece, though San Diego took two of three at the Trop in 2007 and 2010.
Roster move: RHP Brandon Gomes has been placed on the 15-day DL with right lat strain. In kind, Josh Lueke has been called up from Durham to fill the hole. Lueke has done well in Triple-A, going 2-0 and posting a 0.95 ERA with 29 Ks in 19 innings of work. He’s also accrued seven saves and a .176 BAA.