X-Rays Spex – Page 508 – A Below fWAR Rays Fan Site

The New What Next: Rays vs Mariners, A Series Preview

David Price throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

Another day, another disappointing performance on both sides of the plate. Tampa Bay continues its 10-game road trip Friday, making the trek north to Seattle to take on the Mariners in a three-game set following a 6-2 loss against the Angels in the series finale. The latest late night loss hurt, but the opportunity to bounce back against Seattle is promising. The Mariners are another sub .500 team, and a series win would give Tampa Bay an opportunity to come home on a wave of momentum. Then again, the Angels also are rocking a sub .500 record, and we all saw that that series went.

Winners of four of their last 10, the Mariners are succeeding at one thing, and one thing only: Tanking. Cough, I’d imagine that they might be vying for one of the coveted ten spots designated for bottom of the barrel teams that would benefit from non-compensatory free agency. I digress. Then again, if the Rays record in the last ten games is indicative of anything, it’s that they have actually played worse than the Mariners over that stretch — winning a lowly three games, while averaging 2.8 runs per game. Ouch. At least the Mariners are hitting homers.

Rays and Mariners offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.

Hisashi Iwakuma: Per Rotowire, “Iwakuma (12-6) got the win Wednesday, holding the A’s to three runs over seven innings, striking out four.” Tampa Bay has faced Iwakuma once back in 2012, in an outing where he relinquished two earned runs in six innings of work. Iwakuma is a consistent pitcher, though that’s not to say he hasn’t given up his fair share of runs — Iwakuma’s given up four or more runs in seven different outings. However, with a 2.92 ERA and a .222 OBA, the Rays don’t have an easy task ahead of them. Key match-ups: Yunel escobar (1-2, BB), Kelly Johnson (2-4, 2B), Matt Joyce (1-3), Luke Scott (1-3), Ben Zobrist (2-3, 2B).

James Paxton: According to Scouting Book, recent call-up James Paxtons “mid-nineties stuff and sick breaking ball hasn’t yet translated to many overpowering performances, but he looked solid enough in a full season of AA ball in 2012, striking out 110 in 106 innings while posting a 3.05 ERA. His 54 walks (and concomitant 1.411 WHIP) should give touts pause, however: he needs to rein in that control if he’s going to excel in MLB anytime soon.”

Erasmo Ramirez: Per Rotowire, “Ramirez allowed 10 baserunners (seven hits, three walks) in 6.1 innings Tuesday against the Royals, but limited the damage to three runs. He struck out three and didn’t receive a decision in the eventual loss.” Tampa Bay beat Ramirez back in August, in a 5.1 inning outing where he gave up four runs on seven hits and a walk. Ramirez has looked good since that fateful outing, averaging two runs per game in his last four starts. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (3-5, 2B, RBI), Matt Joyce (1-3), James Loney (1-3, RBI), Evan Longoria (1-3), Ben Zobrist (3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI).

Noteworthiness

The Mariners have gone 8-12 since they faced the Rays in August. The Rays have gone 9-11.
Bright side: Tampa Bay doesn’t have to face King Felix in this series — he’s out due to back spasms.
Oof. Evan Longoria’s next strikeout with be his career-high 141st of the season.
The Mariners have scored six runs in each of their last two games after totaling seven over their previous four contests.
Seattle leads the major leagues with 25 first-inning home runs. Then again, the Rays have a pair of ground-ball pitchers on the mound Friday and Saturday — keep the ball down, boys.
Per DRaysBay, “The Mariners bullpen leads all of major league baseball in K/9 at 9.74. Danny Farquhar ranks 3rd (13.50), Oliver Perez ranks 7th at 12.73, and Charlie Furbush ranks 12th at 11.62. Carter Capps has inherited 22 runners and only allowed 2 to score giving him the 4th best strand rate at 90.9% (minimum 20 inherited runners).”

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Hellickson Sharp in His Return to the Mound

Jeremy Hellickson pitches against the Los Angeles Angels on September 4, 2013. (Photo Courtesy of Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Suffice to say, at this point in the season Jeremy Hellickson needed to string together a good start. With all of the external factors effecting the probability of the Rays finding a postseason berth, compounded with the fact that Boston absolutely blew out the Tigers in an earlier game, the pressure was on Hellickson and the Rays to win. After a six start stretch where Hellickson relinquished (on average) 4.1 earned runs, while averaging only 4.1 innings per outing*, it would be safe to say that no one knew what we’d see out of Jeremy upon his return to the mound. But Hellickson came out of the fog Wednesday night, putting together a solid 5.1 inning shutout outing.

Make no mistake, Jeremy Hellickson was good. Helly pitched out of the stretch in the second and third innings, however he did something that he seemed incapable of doing in the previous six starts — he got out of those jams unscathed. Helly attacked the zone with his fastball, throwing it for strikes 77% of the time, inducing a good number of weak hits (4 GB/8 FB) off the ends of the Angels bats. He also used his fastball to set up his secondary pitches nicely, of which he got six swings and misses on the change-up. Though Hellickson was pulled 71 pitches into his outing, I can’t help but feel this move was Maddon’s Seinfeld/Costanza “When you hit that high note, you say goodnight and walk off,” moment.

And though McGee allowed the Angels sole run on a Chris Ianetta blast in the seventh, the bullpen was on lock-down mode — limiting the damage while impressively closing the door on LA.

I’ve been live blogging these late night games, because it’s easier to post a link to the summary, rather than writing a game summary during my few spare moments in the course of the workday. You can read that blow-by-blow summary of the game at our Tumblr site. Just click the screenshot below to be redirected.

Click the screen shot to be redirected to a blow-by-blow summary of Wednesday night's Rays/Angels game. — Click the screen shot to be redirected to a blow-by-blow summary of Wednesday night’s Rays/Angels game.

The New What Next

Tampa Bay starts the day 2.5 games ahead of the Yankees in the Wildcard standing. The Yankees and Red Sox will go toe-to-toe tonight, to which we say go Yankees. And yes, I feel horrible about myself after uttering those two words. David Price will take the mound against Jerome Williams in the series finale tonight. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 9/5/13 Starting Lineup

DeJesus CF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Joyce LF
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Johnson DH
Molina C
Escobar SS
Price LHP

Noteworthiness

Tonight’s starting lineup finds David DeJesus leading off and in centerfield in lieu of Desmond Jennings.
Home plate umpire Todd Tichenor made a few questionable calls against the Rays last night, with the most egregious calls coming against the lefties in the lineup. To be fair, it’s nothing new — the umps have been doing as much throughout this series.

Umpire strike zone pitch F/X vs RHH. Each pitch is represented by a single dot. Green dots are balls and red dots are strikes.

The Rays performed mildly better wRISP last night, going 2-for-9. However, none of those runners scored — they simply moved from second to third. I’ll take them moving runners, that’s a plus. However, they could have really broken the game open against Weaver, yet they ended the night by stranding six men on the bags.
Is Wil slipping out of his slump? After going 2-for-31 prior to Tuesday night, Wil Myers has put up some beefy numbers, going 5-for-8 with two doubles, two homers, three runs, and three RBI.
An interesting stat, it’s September 5th and only six players in MLB have at least 30 HR.
Bay News Nine questions, “So, how are those talks between St. Pete and the Ray going?” Per Mayor Foster, things aren’t going so well.

*Culminating in a nine day stint in the minors.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Strike Back Against LA, 7-1

Matt Moore pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the sixth inning. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Don’t call the EMT’s just yet. Tampa Bay showed signs of life Tuesday night in the 7-1 win, and return to the mound of Matt Moore. The Rays All-Star lefty spent the better part of 36 days on the DL with a sore elbow, prior to his 5-1/3 inning start. And granted this may not have been his sharpest start (with Moore posting a 57% K%) of the season, Moore helped ignite the spark that allowed the Rays offense to explode — ultimately tagging Jason Vargas and Anaheim for seven runs on 15 hits and seven walks. Roberto Hernandez came on in relief in the sixth and put together 3-2/3 innings of perfect baseball, striking out seven along the way.

As with the night previous, I live blogged the game over at our Tumblr site. You can read my witty repartee, musings on the game, and a (relatively) in depth blow-by-blow account of the game by clicking the screen shot below. You can consider it a game summary in greater depth; the product of three hours worth of baseball watching into the wee hours of the night.

Click the screen shot to be redirected to our Tumblr site.

The New What Next

Jeremy Hellickson will get the start Wednesday night following his stint in the minor leagues. Hellickson was optioned to Single-A last week as a means to clear the cobwebs from his mind. Try to say that five times without sounding new-agey. We’ll see how the effect of the paid sabbatical when he takes the hill against Jered Weaver and the Angels. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 9/4/13 Starting Lineup

DeJesus LF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Joyce RF
Loney 1B
Jennings CF
Myers DH
Molina C
Escobar SS
Hellickson RHP

Noteworthiness

Home plate umpire Bill Miller certainly had a liberal strike zone against right handed hitting, especially when Vargas was on the mound:

Each pitch is represented by a single dot. Green dots are balls and red dots are strikes. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

I’m hesitant to say that Hernandez has completely turned things around. However, he has posted some pretty good numbers in his last three appearances — 9.2 IP/8 H/3 ER/3 BB/13 K. He’s proving to be a pivotal piece in a bullpen that’s struggling. Roberto Hernandez is the third Rays pitcher to have a save and complete game in same season. The others? Matt Garza and Joe Kennedy.
Big ups to the offense for tagging the Angels for seven runs on 15 hits and seven walks — it’s about time that they’ve been able to break through. However, going 3-20 wRISP while stranding 13 men on the bags is worrisome. Kudos for keeping the pressure on the Angels throughout, scoring in six of the nine innings. Then again, we easily could be talking about a 12 or 13 run affair had they performed better with men in scoring position. A weird juxtaposition if you ask me.
How about the top six hitters (Jennings/Zobrist/Longoria/Young/Loney/Myers) in the order last night, combining to go 10-for-25 with four runs and three RBI. They all worked good at-bats — also combining for six of the seven walks, while Myers is showing signs of slipping out of his funk. I’d be remiss if I left out Yunel Escobar. He went 2-4 with a homer and a walk. I’ll give him a pass for winging his bat in disgust following a swinging strikeout.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Angels Throttle Rays 11-2

Wil Myers dives for a ball hit by Josh Hamilton, but can't make the the catch in the first inning. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images) — Wil Myers dives for a ball hit by Josh Hamilton, but can’t make the the catch in the first inning. (Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images)

Tampa Bay found themselves on the wrong end of an 11-2 loss against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Monday night. The game was ugly — filled with missed scoring opportunities, bad pitching (especially in the sixth and seventh innings), and lethargic ball play overall. The Rays start the day 5.5 games behind the Red Sox in the East, while maintaining a two game lead over the Orioles in the wildcard standings.

BA and Dewayne made a good point during the telecast. The O’s had to win 93 games last season to clinch the second wildcard spot. Tampa Bay would have to go 17-9 in the month of September in order to reach last season’s 93 win plateau. That’s going to be a tough mountain to climb — especially with the way the Rays have been playing.

Fangraphs still has the Rays with a 66.3% chance of reaching the postseason, however the chances of them winning the AL East is an almost nonexistent 8.4% chance. I seem to recall Orestes coining a phrase last season, “Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.” I certainly hope his saying isn’t applicable to now.

In any case, I live blogged all but the bottom of the eighth and the top of the ninth last night — you can read the fairly thorough blow-by-blow account of the game at our Tumblr site. I Last night’s debacle is also summed up (in a manner of speaking) there. Just click the screenshot below for the game summary, random thoughts, and my semi idiotic ruminations on a team that’s struggling to get by.

The New What Next

Matt Moore will make his return to the mound tonight following his stint on the DL. He’ll be opposed by Jason Vargas who two-hit Tampa Bay last week. It’s not going to be any easier against Vargas, especially when you consider their recent history against Vargas, and that the Rays had more than their fair share of opportunities to beat up on the Angels last night — having gone 1-11 wRISP and leaving 12 men on the bags (including seven in scoring position). You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 9/3/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Young DH
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Johnson LF
Lobaton C
Escobar SS
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness

The Rays 19 runs in the last nine games is the fewest during a nine-game stretch since scoring 19 in nine games during September 6-14, 2009. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has scored seven runs during their five-game losing streak, batting .194 — including .133 with RISP
Sam Fuld became the third position player in team history to pitch in a game Monday night, following Wade Boggs (1999) and Josh Wilson (2007). Fuld hit 86 mph four times and 87 once, getting J.B. Shuck to fly out to end the eighth. As of now, Fuld has a lower career ERA than Sandy Koufax.
“When Winston Churchill was managing the London Fogs in the British Rounder League, I think at one time he said “When you’re going through hell, just keep on going.” … And that’s about all we can do right now.” — Joe Maddon, in his post game presser
The Rays announced that Hellickson will get the start Wednesday.
MLB has announced the AL Wildcard Game will be played Wednesday, October 2nd, and the ALDS will begin Friday, October 4th.

The New What Next: Rays and Angels, A Four Game Set on the West Coast

Wil Myers dives back to touch home plate and gets tagged out by Stephen Vogt in the seventh inning on September 1, 2013. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Jawbreaker, the relatively famous melodic punk band from the 90’s, coined the phrase, “When it pains it roars.” I could be wrong, but I believe Blake, the former singer and guitarist of Jawbreaker, was referring to the Rays with his Nostradamus like prophecy. After all, the pain really is roaring at the moment following their three-game sweep at the hands A’s — a series in which Tampa Bay scored all of five runs (a 1.6 run per game average), converting only 19% of RISP situations. Mind you too, prior to their most recent — ill fated — series, the Rays came off a lackluster series against the Angels — who they’re facing this week. Tampa Bay wasn’t much better in their last series against the Angels, taking only one game while averaging three runs per game.

The Rays website features a section where you can reserve your 2014 season tickets, subsequently locking you in for the postseason ticket lottery. However, Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last eight games while playing very un-postseason like baseball. The defense was spotty at best in the series finale against the A’s, and the offense had a hard time of stringing together any runs over the course of the series. A 5-1 loss really wasn’t the best way to start September — a month they traditionally excel in — after an August where they won only 11 games, averaging only 3.42 runs per game. There is hope; The Rays are taking on a pair of sub .500 teams over the next seven days. And hopefully they won’t take the next seven games for granted — Tampa Bay is 3-3 against the Angels and Mariners this season.

Rays and Angels offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.

Garrett Richards: Per Rotowire, “Richards lasted only 3.1 innings and took the loss after allowing four runs on seven hits Wednesday against the Rays.” Fangraphs notes, “Richards has not been able to actually, you know, strike guys out. This despite a good swinging strike rate (10%). Maybe it’s the fact that he’s primarily a fastball/slider guy — lefties had a .389 wOBA against Richards last season.” Key match-ups: David DeJesus (2-2, 2B, RBI, BB), Yunel Escobar (2-4, HR, 2 RBI), Desmond Jennings (1-2), Kelly Johnson (2-3, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB), Jose Lobaton (1-1, BB), Ben Zobrist (2-3, RBI).

Jason Vargas: Per Rotowire, “Vargas was sharp Thursday, pitching seven innings and allowing two hits and no runs while striking out seven in a win against the Rays.” Vargas demoralized the Rays last week on his well located fastball, change-up, and curveball. Can Tampa Bay regroup from that outing, and put some numbers on the board? Key match-ups: Jose Lobaton (2-6), James Loney (2-5, RBI), Jose Molina (3-5, 2B, BB), Delmon Young (5-15, RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (8-20, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB).

Jered Weaver: Per Rotowire, “Weaver picked up his ninth win of the season Friday, as he did not allow a run in six innings against the Brewers.” Tampa Bay is, surprisingly, 2-1 against Weaver over the last three seasons, accruing a 5.18 ERA in four outings. Furthermore, a good number of players on the roster have put up great numbers against the Angels RHP. Attributed to back problems, Weaver’s fastball and sinker velocity have steadily decreased over the last three seasons. Because of it, Weaver has had some pretty inconsistent starts in 2013. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (11-39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB), Yunel Escobar (3-5, 2B, RBI, 2 BB), Desmond Jennings (1-3, 2B, RBI), James Loney (9-26, 2 2B, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (4-10, 3 2B, BB), Jose Molina (4-10, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Sean Rodriguez (2-4, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Luke Scott (1-3), Delmon Young (4-15, HR, 2 RBI), Ben Zobrist (5-15, 2B, 3B, HR, 4 RBI, BB).

Jerome Williams: The journeyman pitcher has reinvented himself, becoming a ground ball specialist of sorts. He won’t blow you away with incredible velocity, however Williams can hurt you if he keeps the ball down. He is apt to leave the ball in hittable locations, so hopefully the Rays can force a mistake. Key match-ups: Kelly Johnson (8-19, RBI, 2 BB), Matt Joyce (3-6, 2B, HR, RBI, BB).

Noteworthiness

Los Angeles has lost four straight in Anaheim and has one win in its last 10 games there.
Yunel Escobar is batting .389 in 21 career games against Los Angeles, his best against any opponent, and is 15 for 35 (.429) during a 10-game hit streak versus the Angels.
Ben Zobrist is batting .385 during an 11-game hit streak against Los Angeles and had two hits off Richards on Wednesday.
Maddon has set the rotation for the next nine games: Monday Chris Archer, Tuesday Matt Moore, Wednesday Odorizzi/Hellickson/Hernandez, Thursday David Price, Friday Alex Cobb, Saturday Chris Archer, Sunday Matt Moore, Tuesday Price, Wednesday Cobb, and Thursday Archer.
Cliff Concoran of Sports Illustrated asserts, “…It’s very possible the Rays recent slump and the Red Sox concurrent surge marks the moment that the 2013 Red Sox iced the AL East title.” Now’s not the time to blow it, Rays.
FWIW, the Rays the A’s split the season series, so if a tiebreaker was needed for the wildcard game home field, it would be the records within their divisions.

We’ll post more shortly.