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The New What Next: Enter the Rangers

Yunel Escobar catches Eduardo Escobar stealing second base during the third inning of the game on September 15, 2013. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

You’d think a series victory would leave us feeling some sense of calm, after all Tampa Bay took two out of three from the Twins. But, at this point in the season, a series victory isn’t enough — especially when the Rays start the day with a half game lead over the Indians in the Wildcard race. No, the Rays should have swept the Twins. Sunday’s loss left a bitter taste in the collective mouths of every Rays fan.

In the post game show following Sunday’s finale, Neil Solondz brought up the point that our ire shouldn’t be pointed solely at Joel Petalta — after all David Price allowed base runners in the seventh, and Jake McGee allowed those inherited runners to score. Furthermore, the Rays offense did nothing with a pair of bases loaded opportunities. However, I’d also argue that Peralta allowed three runs in the eighth — all with two outs, and all when the bases were empty.

The job of the relief staff isn’t to continue where the previous pitcher left off. Rather, their job is to clean up the mess, or hold the game over for the offense. Peralta had no mess to cleanup, other than his own. This loss should be placed firmly on his, and Maddon’s, shoulders. JoMa should have put a fresh Alex Torres in the game. In the end, a team in the midst of important baseball should not be losing games like this.

The only consolation: Texas, who is tied with Tampa Bay for the top Wildcard spot, comes in to town for a four game battle, starting Monday. Like the Rays, the Rangers haven’t found much success of late, having won only three of their last 15 games. Also like the Rays, the Rangers offense has been strapped — Texas has averaged only 3.6 runs per game over that stretch.

In short, this is an incredibly important series. If the good guys can win, they can take sole possession of the top Wildcard spot, giving them a little breathing room. If they lose? Well, the opposite is true. If one thing is true, it’s that there is little to no margin of error — with a half game lead over the Indians, Tampa Bay has scant wiggle room at best.

Rays and Rangers offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.

Matt Garza: Per Rotowire, “Garza was ejected from Friday’s game in the eighth inning after arguing balls and strikes from the dugout, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.” Welcome home Matt, it’s good to see you’re still a head case. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (6-20, 3B, 3 RBI, 4 BB), Matt Joyce (1-2, 2B), Luke Scott (4-16, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 5 BB), Delmon Young (2-5, RBI).

Nick Tepesch: Per Rotowire, “Rangers manager Ron Washington said Tuesday that Tepesch is the team’s tentative No. 5 starter, Anthony Andro of FOXSportsSouthwest.com reports.” Tepesch gave up one run on four hits in his sole start against Tampa Bay, back in April. The Rangers RHP has given up four or more runs in seven starts since his last meeting with the Rays. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (1-1), Desmond Jennings (2-4, 2 2B), James Loney (1-3).

Derek Holland: Per Rotowire, “Holland allowed six runs on eight hits, walking one and striking out two while lasting just three innings in a 9-8 loss to Oakland on Friday night.” The Rays have put up some good numbers against the Rangers lefty, tagging Holland for 25 runs (22 earned) on 34 hits — including seven homers — in six starts. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (2-5, 2B, RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (2-3, RBI), Evan Longoria (9-24, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 3 BB), Delmon Young (6-15, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (8-25, 3 2B, 3B, HR, 7 RBI, BB).

Yu Darvish: Per Rotowire, “Darvish went seven strong innings against the A’s on Saturday, allowing just one run on four hits and one walk while striking out 10, but he was stuck with the loss in the Rangers’ 1-0 defeat.” Darvish has given up one earned run in 15 innings of work against the Rays. Oof. Key match-ups: Sam Fuld (3-6, RBI), Desmond Jennings (1-4).

Noteworthiness

In their series preview, ESPN noted, “Texas (81-67) entered this month with a two-game lead over Oakland in the AL West, but a 2-11 slide has turned that into a 6 1/2-game deficit with 14 games remaining. The Rangers’ tailspin includes losing all six games of a homestand and never leading in any, including a three-game series sweep to the A’s, capped by Sunday’s 5-1 defeat.”
The Rangers have gone 1-for-14 wRISP over the last two games (Cough, that sounds familiar). The Rangers stranded 10 runners Sunday and failed to get an extra-base hit.
Matt Garza is 0-3 in four starts, losing his last two while surrendering nine runs in 11 innings. He gave up three runs with four walks in four innings of Wednesday’s 7-5 loss to Pittsburgh, turning in his shortest outing since being acquired in a trade from the Chicago Cubs two months ago.
The Rays are 1-2 against the Rangers this year, with a -5 run differential.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Handcuff Twins, 7-0

Jose Lobaton is greeted in the dugout after scoring on Evan Longoria's two-out double in the third inning. (AP photo) — Jose Lobaton is greeted in the dugout after scoring on Evan Longoria’s two-out double in the third inning. (AP photo)

Going into last night’s rain lengthened game, you were given the impression that Tampa Bay were a mere inches from putting together a stretch run. Eight of their last 14 games were determined by one or two runs, and because of it one thing was certain; the pieces were there, it just came down to putting them together. Still, we waited with baited breath for a sign that they were on the other side of their malaise. If last night’s 7-0 handcuffing of the Twins did anything, it’s offer that sign… That glimmer of hope the Rays are ready to move forward. Tampa Bay starts the day tied with Texas for the first Wildcard spot, primed to pounce going into the last 15 games of the season.

Matt Moore started the three hour and four minute rain delayed marathon, putting together three innings of one hit, five strikeout ball. Moore was en route to putting together a “high-strikeout/questionable number of walks” outing before he was shutdown by the rain. At times wild, Moore got himself into trouble in the second and third innings thanks to the walk, and a second inning wild pitch which moved runners into scoring position. He, however, came back and induced a pair of inning ending groundouts to preserve his scoreless tenure.

…Then came the deluge

Brandon Gomes took the mound more than an hour later, ushering in a string of five Rays pitchers tasked with closing out the game. And with the exceptions of three hits (including a Pedro Florimon double off Wesley Wright) and a walk, the Rays bullpen was in shutdown mode. Gomes, Wesley Wright, Jamey Wright, Roberto Hernandez, and Cesar Ramos combined to strike out five and induce seven ground-ball outs — closing the door on any hope of a Twins comeback, or a run for that matter.

On the offensive end of things, the Rays hitters didn’t seem too effected by the rain delay, putting crooked numbers on the board both before and after the stop in play. And it all started with Wil Myers’ second inning double…

Wil moved up to third on James Loney’s productive groundout, and was ultimately driven home on a sac-fly to center of the bat of Sean Rodriguez. The Rays struck again in the third inning, after Jose Lobaton reached safely on a lined shot to left. After a pair of outs, Longoria plated a run on a hard hit double to right field — the double strikes again!

With an out in the fourth inning, the birthday boy Delmon Young sent the first pitch he saw to center. SeanRod followed that up with a single to left, moving Young into scoring position. Yunel Escobar and Jose Lobaton joined in on the fun by driving in a pair of runs on a base hit and sac-fly, giving the Rays a commanding four run lead.

…Then came the deluge

Tampa Bay tacked on three more runs in the sixth and eighth innings (respectively), thanks to a pair of huge RBI doubles off the bat of Desmond Jennings. In the end, Tampa Bay did what they seemed incapable of doing over the course of the last month plus — they took advantage of the mistakes and scoring opportunities presented to them.

The New What Next

David Price and the Rays will attempt to put together their twelfth consecutive win (extending back to last season) against the Twins. Minnesota will counter with Pedro Hernandez. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 9/15/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Myers RF
Young DH
Loney 1B
Escobar SS
Rodriguez LF
Molina C
Price LHP

Noteworthiness

At 81-66, Tampa Bay is one victory from their sixth straight winning season.”
Marc Topkin writes, “RHP Jesse Crain indeed came through Friday’s bullpen session feeling good and will throw to hitters Monday at the Trop in what could be the final test of his previously strained shoulder before he is activated and pitches in games. A final decision on his next step will be made Tuesday.”
After putting up some pretty poor numbers, Tampa Bay is 7-18 wRISP so far in the current series with the Twins.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Archer, Rays Blank Twins

Chris Archer delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of the game on September 13, 2013. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)

It may not have been perfect, and the Rays may have left a little to be desired following a pair of seventh inning running gaffes by Yunel Escobar and David DeJesus, but Tampa Bay was able to walk away with a 3-0 shutout victory over the Twins Friday night — increasing their chances of reaching the postseason once more.

According to Marc Topkin, after lasting just 7.2 innings combined over his last two starts, Maddon and Co. “Put Chris Archer on notice, making it known they were watching their 24-year-old rookie closely to see how he would handle both the physical and mental aspects of pitching in his first significant September.” And after coming off a series loss to Boston, the Rays needed to take advantage of playing against the sub .500, and struggling, Twins. The Rays rookie responded to the pressure well, throwing six shutout innings, while striking out seven and impressively walking none. Suffice it to say, Chris Archer was fantastic Friday night.

It all starts with fastball command, and to put it bluntly, Archer had it. Chris was able to get his fastball across 63% of the time, inducing six swings and misses. His secondary pitches were absolutely superb, throwing both his change-up and slider for strikes (plus) 70% of the time. Archer only really got into trouble in the fifth inning when the Rays led by two.

With the Twins threatening, Archer faced Clete Thomas and Eduardo Escobar. Up for the challenge, he only needed 10 pitches (total) to ring up the pair — getting each to strikeout looking at change-ups down in the zone. Archer hasn’t leaned on his change-up of late, favoring his fastball and slider instead. Erik Hahmann of DRaysBay asserted, he, “Uses it the least of his arsenal and nearly exclusively against lefties, but it gets swung at and put in play the most.” Being able to locate that pitch down in the zone will help Archer go a long way. In the least, it’s another weapon in his arsenal going into the postseason.

Maddon shut Archer down early, after throwing only 87 pitches, presumably to preserve the righties arm — his 166 innings pitched between Triple-A and MLB are a career high. Archer got help from the relief tandem of Jake McGee, Joel Peralta and Fernando Rodney. The three relievers were incredibly efficient on Friday the 13th, and as Rays bullpen catcher Scott Cursi pointed out, they threw 13 pitches apiece — combining to strikeout four.

On the other side of things, the Rays batters weren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut. However, the Rays were able to do something they haven’t been able to do of late: Drive in runners in scoring position (the Rays went 4-9 wRISP). Interestingly enough, Wil Myers, Yunel Escobar, and Jose Molina hit four doubles on the night, and each of them were driven home.

This isn’t to say they were perfect, after all, there was an opportunity to blow the game open in the seventh inning after back-to-back doubles by Jose Molina and Yunel Escobar. With a runner on second and no outs, David DeJesus moved Escobar to third on a single. Ben Zobrist attempted to bunt, but instead popped into a double play when an overly eager Escobar was caught off third. DeJesus was then picked off trying to steal second. DeJesus has 62 career steals, though he’s been caught 57 times. Perhaps he should rethink swiping a bag, at least for the time being.

The win, coupled with the Yankees loss, increased the Rays lead to 1.5 games over Cleveland, 2 over New York, 2.5 over Baltimore and 3.5 over Kansas City. Better yet, Oakland’s shellacking of Texas puts the Rays just one game out of the first Wild Card spot.

The New What Next

Matt Moore will toe the rubber against rookie Andrew Albers this evening. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 9/14/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Johnson 2B
Longoria 3B
Myers RF
Loney 1B
Young DH
Rodriguez LF
Lobaton C
Escobar SS
Moore LHP

Noteworthiness

Kelly Johnson will take the place of the struggling Ben Zobrist at second today, hitting second in the lineup.
Tampa Bay has now taken 10 consecutive regular season games from the Twins, extending back to 2012.
The Rays have jumped back up from a 53% chance, to a 68.9% chance of making the playoffs (per Fangraphs). Let’s keep up that momentum, boys!

The New What Next: There’s Still Life in Those Rays, A Rays vs Twins Series Preview

David Price jumps ove the dugout wall after the final out against the Boston Red Sox. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images) — David Price jumps over the dugout wall after the final out against the Boston Red Sox. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

To say the Rays 4-3 win against the Red Sox was important would be an understatement. In the throes of a horrible stretch, Jeremy Hellickson put together a solid outing, while Tampa Bay took advantage of Jake Peavy’s misgivings — coming up with key (I refuse to call them clutch) hits to give them a 3-1 lead and the subsequent one run win.

Tampa Bay heads to Minneapolis to take on the lowly Twins in a three game set — the final leg in the 2013 Knutson Cup. The Rays swept Minnesota in four games back in July while in the midst of a 21-5 stretch. In an ideal world, facing a sub .500 team could be precisely what the doctored ordered following Thursday night’s huge win. A cautionary tale is in order though, Tampa Bay didn’t fare too well against a pair of sub .500 teams on their most recent west coast trip.

Rays and Twins offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.

Kevin Correia: Per Rotowire, “Correia picked up his ninth win of the season Sunday as he gave up one earned run on five hits over seven innings. He walked one and struck out two.” Egad, a pitcher who the Rays have had success against! Tampa Bay last faced Correia in a 5.1 IP/3 ER/1 HR outing, back on July 10th. Since then, the Twins RHP has given up three or more runs in four starts, and 15 overall. Key match-ups: David DeJesus (3-11, 2 2B, BB), Yunel Escobar (4-9, RBI, BB), Kelly Johnson (9-25, 2B, 5 HR, 10 RBI), Wil Myers (1-3), Luke Scott (2-4, 2 BB), Delmon Young (3-9, RBI).

Andrew Albers: Per Rotowire, “Albers gave up four hits over seven scoreless innings Sunday against Toronto. He walked none and struck out five.” Albers has been described as a, “He’s a 6-1, 195 pound lefty, born October 6, 1985. As you may surmise given his background, he doesn’t have a blazing fastball, working at 85-88 MPH and usually at the lower end of that range. He locates it well however, and is adept at changing speeds with his slider and changeup. He’s always thrown strikes, and has succeeded at every level of baseball to which he’s been exposed, including playing for the Canadian national team.”

Pedro Hernandez: Per Rotowire, “Hernandez did not record a decision Monday against the Angels as he pitched 4.2 innings and allowed three runs, eight hits and one walk to go along with three strikeouts.” The scouting report on Hernandez, “Hernandez is er solidly built at 5’10″ and 210lbs and throws a hittable fastball that will touch 90 but requires precise location to be effective. When Hernandez is at his most effective he locates his fastball early, gets ahead of hitters and brings his decent change into play. Hernandez will throw a looping curve, but he can neither locate or disguise it well so experienced hitters will just watch it bounce and wait on his hittable fastball. He is notorious for losing composure on the mound and that, along with his lack of an effective breaking pitch, may have sabotaged him as he moved up the chain in both the White Sox and Padre systems.”

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The “This Is Getting Tiresome” Edition

Mike Napoli beats Evan Longoria to third base in the 2nd inning. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

It all came down to one pitch. If executed properly, the Rays — who battled back from a 3-0 deficit to tie things up in the bottom of the eighth — would have found life in the bottom of the tenth. One pitch. But as fate would have it, Roberto Hernandez lobbed a very hittable slider over the plate to Mike Carp, a pitch that found its home over the wall in center field. Roberto’s errant pitch gave the Red Sox a four run lead they’d never relinquish.

I’d imagine that Hernandez’s 2/3 inning outing would a suitable metaphor of Wednesday night’s game. The ground ball specialist came into the game with one out in the 10th, tasked with inducing a double play. Instead he walked the bases loaded, then gave up a grand slam — Boston’s first pinch hit grand slam in a decade. Chronically scratching at the eight-ball, the Rays had opportunities a plenty for that extra run and that pivotal out all night. But they just couldn’t get either. The Rays postseason probability dropped from 53% to 45.6% in a matter of innings. And thanks to the Yankees 5-4 win against the O’s, Tampa Bay now holds a minute one game lead over New York in the wildcard race. Ouch.

The Peripherals

While I’m on the subject of Roberto Hernandez, a little internet sleuthing finds that batters have posted a .338 BA/.343 OBP/.662 SLG/1.005 OPS against his slider. On top of that, 10 of the 23 hits he’s given up on the slider, have been homers (six, including last night’s grand slam) or doubles. In light of his lack of success with the pitch, perhaps it’s time to shelve it.
Surprise surprise, Tampa Bay went 1-for-10 wRISP, stranding 10 men on the bags. Furthermore, the Rays worked two bases loaded opportunities, and they did absolutely nothing to take a commanding lead. Rather, Desmond Jennings (0-4, 3K) did nothing with a pair of bases loaded opportunities. Instead of silencing detractors by mashing the ball in a pair of play the part of the hero scenarios, Jennings walked away with a pair of whimpers — grounding into a fielder’s choice in the third and striking out in the fifth.
Dempster was sloppy at best, yet he was still able to make the big pitch to keep the Rays down. Tampa Bay threatened with runners on second and third in the second inning, but Dempster got Lobaton swinging to put them away. Then there were the third and fifth innings discussed above.
The folks at DRaysBay put things into perspective well,

The Tampa Bay Rays are absolutely reeling. With their grip on the final AL Wildcard slot slipping and in desperate need of a win, the Rays turned to Alex Cobb to right the ship and inject some life into a clubhouse that is on the verge of collapse.

Cobb, for his part, performed well. He lasted just 5.2 innings and surrendered three runs but gave his team a chance to win. Unfortunately, it seems like any mistake by a Rays starter is the deathknell as the offense continues to mired in a month-long offensive malaise.

I honestly don’t put too much credence in what the Big Dog Steve Duemig has to say. However, I fully agree with his assessment of Wil Myers in the field — the kid looks like a dear in the headlights. Myers completely misplayed Mike Napoli’s two RBI double in the third, diving when he didn’t need to, and losing the ball in the turf which allowed Napoli to advance to second. The once solid outfield is in shambles following Myers and Jennings’ inconsistent play of late.
At least the staff at the Trop tried to break up the monotony of the seemingly hopeless game. When David DeJesus drew a walk to leadoff the fifth, Kanye West’s “Jesus Walks” blared over the PA as he made his way to first.
Per Marc Topkin, Joe Maddon said one morning-after thought was that he should have started inning with Hernandez.
Maddon was quoted as saying, “My eyes are firmly planted on going to the World Series.”

The New What Next

Hellickson will attempt to continue the solid starting pitching of the last few days. He’ll be opposed by Jake Peavy. You can read about the pitching match-up here. C’mon Joe, light a fire under their asses!

Rays 9/12/13 Starting Lineup

DeJesus LF
Zobrist 2B
Loney 1B
Longoria 3B
Joyce DH
Myers RF
Jennings CF
Lobaton C
Escobar SS
Hellickson P