Looking Backward While Moving Forward: The “Yeesh” Edition

Alex Cobb pitches against the Oakland Athletics. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Alex Cobb pitches against the Oakland Athletics. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

For the moment, everything is coming up Milhouse for the Rays. Not even a dazzling 2 R/5 H complete game outing by Alex Cobb was good enough Saturday night, as Tampa Bay’s anemic offense couldn’t muster more than a run in the 2-1 loss to the Athletics. Even then, that run came in a late game rally off former Ray Grant Balfour. It certainly doesn’t take into account all of the squandered opportunities leading up to that point.

The peripherals are staggering: Tampa Bay went 1-10 w/RISP, stranding nine men on the bags. Desmond Jennings alone stranded three men in scoring position, four overall. James Loney was the only Ray to put together a decent night in the box, reaching base safely on a pair of singles and a walk, while the big boys — Longo, Joyce, Zo, and Myers — combined to go 3-for-15, striking out five times. Tampa Bay ended the night four-and-a-half games behind the Boston Red Sox in the East, while maintaining a three-and-a-half game lead over the Yankees in the wildcard standings. Though the odds off the Rays making the playoffs are still good — a 69.2% chance according to Fangraphs, I cannot think of a worse possible time for Tampa Bay to go into a slump… One that found them scoring only 3.4 runs per game in the month of August. Thank god it’s a new month.

Moving forward Jamey Wright will get the nod today over Roberto Hernandez — effectively starting a parade of relievers against the Athletics batters. Expect reinforcements as well. With the September roster expansion, Tampa Bay have added Delmon Young, Chris Gimenez and Josh Lueke to the roster, while Luke Scott has been activated from the 15-day DL.

Rays 9/1/13 Starting Lineup

DeJesus LF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Joyce DH
Loney 1B
Myers RF
Jennings CF
Molina C
Escobar SS
J Wright RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Delmon Young isn’t in the lineup vs. the RHP Griffin.
  • “We haven’t been coming thru. That simply can’t happen or we’re going to be going home at the end of September.” — Evan Longoria in the post game presser.
  • Marc Topkin brought up a good point, “What’s a clutch hit or two worth? The Rays have lost 4 one-run games in the last seven days, and another by two.”
  • Tampa Bay transferred Jeremy Hellickson from Class-A Charlotte to AA Montgomery, which allows him to be recalled Tuesday after Biscuits season ends.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Drop Fifth in Six Games, September Call-ups Part One

Kelly Johnson argues with home plate umpire Brian Gorman after being called out on strikes in the eighth inning. A pictorial metaphor of the Rays at the moment. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)
Kelly Johnson argues with home plate umpire Brian Gorman after being called out on strikes in the eighth inning. A pictorial metaphor of the Rays at the moment. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images)

It was a long night — the first of ten. I woke up this morning with a sickening feeling in my gut — and to be honest, I’m not certain if it had more to do with the booze I steadily consumed for six or so hours yesterday, or the Rays 4-3 loss to the A’s. Perhaps it was the unholy combination of both. Whatever the case, both happened, and both left me feeling empty. Adding insult to injury, Tampa Bay fell three-and-a-half games behind Boston in the AL East, and a half game behind Oakland for the first wild card slot. Bright side: The Rays have two more games against the A’s today and tomorrow.

David Price tweeted, “I have GOT to be able to step up for us and make pitches when it matters most…I’ll take that one rays fans…stick with us!!” following the game. However, it’s a bit unfair to expect Price to shoulder all the responsibility for the loss. After all, the Rays did go 3-9 wRISP, while stranding eight men on the bags — including four in scoring position. Home plate umpire Brian Gorman complicated things with a pretty liberal and/or inconsistent strike zone.

fastmap.php-pitchSel=all&game=gid_2013_08_30_tbamlb_oakmlb_1&sp_type=2&s_type=7
Called balls and strikes (vs. LHH) by home plate umpire, Brian Gorman. Each pitch is represented by a single dot. Green dots are balls and red dots are strikes. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Called balls and strikes (vs. RHH) by home plate umpire, Brian Gorman. Each pitch is represented by a single dot. Green dots are balls and red dots are strikes. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Called balls and strikes (vs. RHH) by home plate umpire, Brian Gorman. Each pitch is represented by a single dot. Green dots are balls and red dots are strikes. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

The New What Next

Losing five out of the last six a’int so grand, is it? Tampa Bay will attempt a bounce back tonight against Sonny Gray and the Athletics.  Getting the start for the Rays is Alex Cobb, who’ll play the part of stopper once again. You can read about tonight’s pitching match-up here.

Rays 8/31/13 Starting Lineup

DeJesus LF
Escobar SS
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Joyce DH
Myers RF
Loney 1B
Lobaton C
Jennings CF
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Friday’s loss meant the Rays will have their first losing August since 2006, Maddon’s 1st season — and that’s after a 21-5 July.
  • Jennings is hitting .114 since returning from DL — he’s been dropped to ninth tonight.
  • The Rays may not have a starter for Sunday’s game until postgame tonight, so it may have do with how bullpen is used.
  • Reinforcements are on the way. Brandon Gomes has been recalled from Triple-A, replacing Jake Odorizzi on the roster. Three more players are set to be added Sunday, when rosters can be expanded: Delmon Young, Chris Gimenez and Josh Lueke will join the team in Oakland Saturday in preparation for the move. Luke Scott, who was placed on the DL due to back spasms, will also come to Oakland to be evaluated and possibly activated.
  • Marc Topkin reports, “The Rays have big plans for Young, who has been playing his way back into form at Double-A Montgomery since being signed last week following his release by the Phillies, slating him for DH duties vs. all lefties and some right-handers, Maddon said Young hit .236 (6-for-26) in his first six games for Double-A Montgomery, with no extra-base hits and one RBI.”
  • Looking a down the road, Jake Odorizzi should be back soon. Both he and Jeff Believeau were optioned (in a procedural move) to Double-A Montgomery. The move allows him to be called back up Tuesday after the Biscuits’ season ends, as opposed to having to wait 10 days or until the Durham Bulls are done with the playoffs. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are likely to be activated  Tuesday as well.
  • The highlight of the game came in the eighth inning, when Fernando Rodney was freed from a small dugout bathroom after 15 hot minutes stuck inside. The door handle had to be broken off to get him out. Of the experience, Rodney said, “The door locked, I don’t know how,” he said. “I’m yelling, “Hey unlock this, someone’s in the bathroom.” … It was hot inside, I could only hear the crowd with the game, I can’t see what’s going on. “It was weird.”
Fernando Rodney is rescued from a dugout bathroom when a staff member in Oakland manages to pry the door open. Click the screen shot for video of the, ahem...incident.
Fernando Rodney is rescued from a dugout bathroom when a staff member in Oakland manages to pry the door open. Click the screen shot for video of the, ahem…incident.
  • The Process Report’s Jason Collette took a stab at explaining the problems of Jeremy Hellickson.
  • As if the trip from San Francisco to Oakland wasn’t complicated enough, after the Bay Bridge was closed for the weekend for construction purposes ahead of the opening of a new span, according to a late night tweet from Marc Topkin, the trip across the bay was equally harrowing. “Okay, so BART is not always the answer either; we’re being held between stations back to SF due to what announcement said was an earthquake.” An hour later he went on to note, “Made it across the bay on BART train with no further seismic issues. So that’s a good thing. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.”

The New What Next: Rays vs A’s – The Battle of the Bays

Wil Myers loses his helmet during a first inning at bat against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
Wil Myers loses his helmet during a first inning at bat against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The good news: Tampa Bay has won nine of its last 15 with the pitching staff relinquishing only 2.6 runs, on average, per game. The bad: They’ve dropped four out of their last five, averaging only 2.6 runs per game in that stretch. Thursday’s game followed a familiar pattern; the pitchers put together a good enough start, yet the offense couldn’t muster anything. Rather, they were able to get eight runners on — but moving them over or driving them in? Not so much. You’ve got to love streakiness — one moment you’re feeling the highest of highs, and the next you feel like you’ve gotten punched in the stomach.

Welcome to Consternation Station: A place where unfounded rumors fly. Reinforcements are rumored to be on the way, and none too soon — Wil Myers, Desmond Jennings, and (to a large extent) Evan Longoria haven’t been nearly as dependable as they could, or should. When it matters — that is, when runners are in scoring position — Longo has posted a .252 BA/.372 OBP/.383 SLG/.755 OPS slash line, but that’s at least something. Wil Myer has been absolutely atrocious in the month of August, hitting .207 BA/.320 OBP/.305 SLG/.624 OPS while striking out 27.8% of the time. Furthermore, he’s hitless in his last 19 at-bats and is 5-for-43 (.116) over his last 12 games, with no extra-base hits. Simply put, the league has adjusted to Myers, yet he hasn’t made the proper adjustments on his end. And Jennings? He’s is mired in a 2-for-24 slump, while Evan Longoria and Wil Myers have gone hitless in their last 36 at-bats combined.

Per Cork Gaines at Rays Index, Tampa Bay could be calling up Tim Beckham as early as Sunday, asserting, “Yunel Escobar is the only true shortstop on the team. While both Ben Zobrist and Sean Rodriguez can play shortstop, neither is ideal. When Zobrist plays shortstop, all that does is create a hole someplace else. And Rodriguez should only be in the game if a lefty is on the mound. Beckham would give Maddon another true shortstop as well as the added flexibility of also being able to play second base. In addition, while Beckham does hit lefties better than righties, his OBP is almost evenly split (.344 vs LHP, .345 vs RHP).” I’m not certain how credible his sources are, but if what the asserts is true, this move: A. Represents a make or break moment for the Rays 2008 number one draft pick, and B. Could bolster a streaky offense. But that’s neither here or now.

The Rays will slunk into Oakland for a three game series against the closest contender in the wildcard race, the Athletics. From a statistical point of view, both Tampa Bay and Oakland have all but clinched a postseason berth. However, with the Orioles and Indians nipping at the heels, some distance between the Rays and A’s would be nice.

Tampa Bay swept Oakland back in April in a three game series at the Trop, though they’re 24-23 in the years the Rays have been relevant, extending back to 2008. Similar to the Rays, the Athletics have cooled significantly following the All-Star Break — having gone 19-18 (.514 WP) with a paltry 10-run run differential. And though the Rays have a higher WP since the break, a negative run differential of six runs doesn’t bode too well for a team that was fourth in the league in runs scored in June and July. Then again, the A’s are 12-13 in the month of August with two games remaining. They need to win their next two games to keep their streak of consecutive months with a winning record alive, which dates back to last June.

Don’t expect much run support from either team Friday, as David Price and Jarrod Parker are slated to face one another in the first game of the series. Price is 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 62 strikeouts in his past 11 starts. Likewise, Parker has been very good, going 8-0 with a 2.48 ERA and .202 opponents’ average over his last 16 outings. It should be noted that three of the six starters below (Hernandez, Gray, and Griffin) are, as of now, tentative.

Rays and A's presumed series starters.
Rays and A’s presumed series starters.
Rays and A's offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and A’s offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and A's, by the numbers.
Rays and A’s, by the numbers.

Jarrod Parker: Per Rotowire, “Parker was fantastic Saturday against the Orioles, earning the win while allowing only one run in eight innings.” A handful of Rays have had success against the A’s most consistent pitcher, and the team has put together a respectable .250 BA/.328 OBP/.481 SLG/.808 OPS slash line against Parker, with five extra base hits — three homers, a triple, and a double. It should be noted the sample size against the 24 year-old righty is incredibly small — a mere 52 at-bats. Key match-ups: Desmond Jennings (2-7, 3 BB), Kelly Johnson (1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (2-6), Jose Molina (3-9, 2B), Ben Zobrist (3-9, 3B, HR, RBI).

Sonny Gray: Per Rotowire, “Gray was clobbered Sunday to the tune of six runs on eight hits and two walks, while striking out three in 3.1 innings, as the Athletics lost at Baltimore.” According to Scoutingbook.com, presumed starter Sonny Gray, ” Is a small, stocky pitcher with big stuff. His 95mph fastball has great natural movement, and he’s already complementing it with a quality curve. As can be said of 99% of all amateurs (and new professionals), though, his changeup isn’t really all there yet, and that’ll be what matters most to his future. Until now, his stuff has been good enough to allow him to succeed even when pitching up in the zone.”

A.J. Griffin: Griffin is a 25 year-old RHP who works with an 88-92 MPH fastball, mixing in a curveball, slider, and changeup. The changeup is arguably his best secondary offering, thought he isn’t afraid to use his breaking pitches, and he’s aggressive with the fastball. A fly ball pitcher, he can get touched for home runs if he makes a mistake up in the strike zone, but his command is generally very solid. This shows up in his excellent K/BB ratios, and despite his average velocity, his strikeout rates are generally good, which testifies to the quality of secondary pitches.

 

 

 

 

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: King Archer Strikes Again

Chris Archer starts against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
Chris Archer starts against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

The stats spoke for themselves; going into Wednesday night’s game, the Rays were 9-1 when Chris Archer pitched six or more innings.  And after being in the throes of a three-game losing streak, what better pitcher to throw on the mound than King Archer? Suffice to say, the presumed rookie of the year put together another outstanding outing, going seven strong innings and leading the Rays 4-1 win against the Angels.

In short, Archer has been on fire, going 6-2 in his last 10 starts, averaging 6-2/3 innings and 1-1/2 earned runs per start. He was just as predictably good Wednesday night, giving up only one run on five hits and no walks, while striking out five (three with an excellent slider). Archer got ahead of batters with his fastball, throwing it for strikes 73% of the time, then leaned on his put-away pitch — a deadly mid 80’s slider in which he was able to induce seven whiffs. In fact, Archer was — for all intents and purposes — a two pitch pitcher, throwing only two change-ups on the night. In retrospect, Archer really didn’t need to throw his change-up. And when he wasn’t getting swings and misses down in the zone, Archer got the Angels to hit weak grounders and fly-ball outs, including an Eric Aybar double play to end the sixth.

Chris began to show signs of fatigue in the seventh, ultimately allowing two base runners to reach safely while relinquishing his only run of the night. Mike Trout led off the inning by reaching first on a slow roller to short, subsequently getting moved to second on a hard hit single to right off the bat of Josh Hamilton. Mark Trumbo moved the runners up to second and third (respectively) on a fielder’s choice — a play which should have been an easy double play, hadn’t James Loney bobbled the ball. With runners in scoring position, Kole Calhoun plated the Angels sole run on a sac-fly to deep left-field, but Archer got Chris Nelson to ground out to short to end the inning while limiting the damage.

Joel Peralta and Fernando Rodney came on in relief, combining to post a pair of excellent 1-2-3 innings.

On the offensive end of things, the Rays weren’t nearly as bad wRISP on this fine eve. However, they still stranded seven runners on the bags, including four in scoring position. Tampa Bay struck early after David DeJesus leadoff the inning with a double, and was moved to third on a Ben Zobrist single to left. Matt Joyce followed, plating the first run on a sac-fly to left. The Rays threatened to break the game open in the bottom of the second with the bases loaded and two outs. Much to the chagrin to every Rays fan far and wide, Ben Zobrist put an end to the threat by lining out to center on the first pitch he saw.

The Rays eventually took the lead in a three-run fourth inning. Desmond Jennings and Jose Lobaton quickly reached base on a pair of back-to-back singles to center, and Yunel Escobar took a calculated risk by laying down a beautiful two-strike sacrifice bunt, moving Jennings and Lobaton up to second and third. David DeJesus gave the good guys the lead when he sent a shot off the shin of Garrett Richards for an RBI — his first as a Ray. BenZo followed with an RBI base hit to center, while Longo drove home the fourth run on an error to short, capping the Rays scoring.

The New What Next

The recently recalled Jake Odorizzi will get the start in the rubber match of the series against Jason Vargas. Note: The getaway game starts at 1:10.

Rays 8/29/13 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Myers RF
Rodriguez 1B
Escobar SS
Johnson DH
Lobaton C
Fuld LF
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Archer’s averaged seven innings in his last three starts while relinquishing only four earned runs total.
  • Yeah, this happened before Wednesday night’s game:
David Price: The next Deion Sanders.
David Price: The next Deion Sanders.
  •  The question begs: Does Friedman make a bullpen move for the stretch, now that Crain is reportedly no closer to pitching for the Rays?
  • Per Roger Mooney of the Trib, “Maddon said he has seen video of DH Delmon Young batting for Double-A Montgomery and said he looked good. Young is expected to join the Rays on Sunday. … DH Luke Scott began a minor-league rehab assignment Tuesday in Durham.”

 

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Drop Third Straight, 6-5

Yunel Escobar holds a throw to first base in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels. Outfielder Mike Trout singled on the play. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)
Yunel Escobar holds a throw to first base in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels. Outfielder Mike Trout singled on the play. (Photo by Al Messerschmidt/Getty Images)

To put it bluntly, after the 11-1 debacle against the Royals Monday, and the subsequent demotion of Jeremy Hellickson Tuesday, Tampa Bay really needed a big performance out of Roberto Hernandez. And with the exceptions of a Mike Trout blast in the fourth, and an unlucky break in the seventh, a solid performance they got.

Sadly, Hernandez’s best outing in some time went to waste after Jake McGee and Fernando Rodney let another save slip away, in the 6-5 loss to The The Angels Angels of Anaheim. The Rays start the day two-and-a-half games behind the Red Sox after Boston crushed the Orioles by a score of 13-2. Bulleted game peripherals are below:

  • I’d imagine the only consolation for Roberto Hernandez might be that he wasn’t charged with the loss. Hernandez looked good Tuesday night, however his 6 IP/8 H/3 ER/3 BB/6 K/2 GDP slash line on 94 pitches (60 for strikes) was for naught. Seriously, dude can’t catch a break — he is still 0-4 against the Angels. Even though the opposing batters reached safely in all but one inning, Hernandez was effective in making that big pitch to get a strikeout or ground out; Roberto struck out three batters to end the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings, while inducing eight ground ball outs — including a pair of big double plays. The key to his success: He was able to command his sinker, fastball, and change-up — largely keeping it down and on the periphery of the strike zone.  The only pitch he had a hard time with was, surprise surprise, his slider — of the 15 he threw, only six went for strikes (one whiff). To Roberto’s credit, the blast Mike Trout hit in the fourth was on a good pitch down in the zone and on the outside corner. And to be fair, color Hernandez unlucky in the seventh — Roberto gave up a lead-off single to Nelson, who was moved to second on a Grant Green bunt base hit that never rolled foul. With two on and no outs, Jake McGee came on in relief and quickly gave up a walk, RBI fielder’s choice, and an RBI single — cutting the Rays lead to an uncomfortable one run.
Roberto Hernandez at-bat results. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
Roberto Hernandez at-bat results. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)
  • Like Hernandez, CJ Wilson was able to make the big pitch to get out of innings relatively unscathed. Unlike the Rays righty however, Wilson pitched out of the stretch for the majority of his 5 IP/8 H/3 ER/5 BB outing. Say what you will about McGee and Rodney blowing the game, I’d argue that going 3-13 wRISP while stranding 12 men on the bags (including eight in scoring position) had an equally negative impact on the outcome of the game. Wil Myers, Desmond Jennings, and Evan Longoria all came up short in big situations, going 0-10 overall and combining for four strikeouts. Granted they collectively walked five times, the Rays could only convert one of those walks into a run.
  • Jose Molina had a huge night, going 3-4 with two doubles and three RBI. What’s more, he gunned down Nelson at second to end the top of the second inning. Yet as with Hernandez, his big night was for naught. A bummer indeed — lord knows when he may put together another career night at the plate.
  • Fernando Rodney blew his eighth save of the year after giving up two runs in the ninth (one earned) on a walk, error, stolen base, and an RBI double. To be frank, Rodney looked like crap. Is Jesse Crain ready yet?
  • Desmond Jennings’ ninth inning error proved costly. Instead of a runner on second with one out, the Angels were primed with two on and no outs, and the winning run at first. That was a play that Jennings has made time and again, and simply misplayed the ball this time around. That error could prove important at  this point in the season with 30 some games left.
  • Let’s be honest, five runs should have been enough to beat a sub .500 team.

The New What Next

Chris Archer will get the start Wednesday, tasked with putting an end to the current three-game losing streak. Archer will take on Jerome Williams. You can read about the pitching match-up here.

Rays 8/28/13 Starting Lineup

DeJesus LF
Zobrist 2B
Longoria 3B
Joyce DH
Myers RF
Loney 1B
Jennings CF
Lobaton C
Escobar SS
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Over last 13 games, Rays catchers Lobaton & Molina have combined to hit .340 BA/.392 OBP/.596 SLG with 2 HR, 10 RBI, 4 2B, 1 3B.
  • Since Desmond Jennings has slumped it up, he’ll be hitting seventh, while David DeJesus hits in the leadoff spot.