The New What Next: Rays vs. Yankees — the Gauntlet Continues

"The Outlaw" Kevin Kiermaier hits a solo home run in the sixth inning during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles on June 29, 2014 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. (Photo courtesy of Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
“The Outlaw” Kevin Kiermaier hits a solo home run in the sixth inning during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles on June 29, 2014 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore. (Photo courtesy of Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Here we go. The second leg of the Rays 11-game road gauntlet commences in the Bronx, Monday, where Tampa Bay will take on the Evil Empire in a three-game set. The Rays are riding a massive wave of momentum following their big series victory against the Orioles, not to mention a pretty damn good second half of June — since June 15th, Tampa Bay has gone 9-6, outscoring their opponents 67-53 in that span, while averaging 4.46 runs per game. Tampa Bay is finally showing what they should have looked like right out the gate, while the Yankees are playing sluggishly of late — proving that $400 MM in offseason acquisitions may not necessarily equal a great team.

Consider this for a moment. Masahiro Tanaka (who the Rays won’t be facing in this series) is 11-3. The Yankees are 41-39 on the season, with a .476 Pythagorean Expectation. Of those $400 MM worth of offseason acquisitions, only one, Tanaka, has made them an above average team.

What’s more, the Yankees are 41-39 (.476 PE, or 37-43) on the season, while the Rays are 35-49 (.473 PE, or 38-46). PE, or Pythagorean Expectation, is an estimation of how many games a baseball team “should” have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. That is, the Yankees have been incredibly lucky/advantageous this season, whereas the Rays have not.

Since there really hasn’t been a startling difference in offensive production between the Rays and Yankees — especially over the last 14 days — the one thing that’s pushed them over has been Tanaka. When he’s not on the mound, the Yankees are indeed a pretty beatable team.

The Yankees dropped the final two games against the Boston Red Sox over the weekend and are losers of six of their last eight contests. New York pitching surrendered 12 hits in Sunday’s finale, while the staff has allowed an average of 6.5 runs in the last six losses, needing to burn through five relievers on Sunday, including two innings from top setup man Dellin Betances.

Rays and Yankees series starters.
Rays and Yankees series starters.
Rays and Yankees offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Yankees offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Yankees, by the numbers.
Rays and Yankees, by the numbers.

David Phelps: Phelps was rocked for six runs on eight hits in five innings in Toronto on Tuesday. Prior to that, he yielded a total of two earned runs over 13-2/3 innings in his previous two outings. As in previous seasons, Phelps has racked up strikeouts as well as walks, and doesn’t have an apparent second skill — like an ability to coax ground ball outs. That could bode well for Tampa Bay. The Rays last faced the 27 year-old RHP on June 21, 2013, when he surrendered two runs in 5-2/3 innings to earn a win. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (4-10, BB), James Loney (3-10, 2B, RBI), Jose Molina (1-3), Sean Rodriguez (1-4, RBI), Ben Zobrist (5-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB).

Hiroki Kuroda:The Rays have been good against Kuroda over in his last 29-1/3 innings of work, tagging the 39 year-old RHP for 26 runs (24 earned) on 34 hits, including an abbreviated 5-2/3 inning outing in April. Kuroda was okay in his last start Wednesday, allowing three runs on eight hits with four strikeouts, in a 6-1/3 inning start against the Blue Jays. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-4, BB), Desmond Jennings (3-11, RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (6-16, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (7-17, 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Ben Zobrist (5-15, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB). 

Vidal Nuno: Let’s review Nuno’s two starts against the Rays this season. In his first outing, back in April, Nuno blanked Tampa Bay over five innings, giving up only three hits. But the Rays came back to hammer the 26 year-old lefty for four runs on five hits, including a Desmond Jennings two-run shot, in a 10-5 routing of the Yankees. Overall, Nuno has given up an average of 4-3/4 runs in half of his 16 starts, with six of those eight starts culminating in a loss. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-3, 2B, RBI), Desmond Jennings (2-6, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-7, 2B, 3B), Jose Molina (1-4, 2B). 

Noteworthiness

  • Matt Joyce went 5-for-6 with a pair of home runs as the Rays slugged out 11 extra-base hits on Sunday.
  • Chris Archer (4-5, 3.29 ERA) is the second pitcher in the last 30 years to win his first four starts against New York (41-39), joining Ervin Santana in 2005-06. The last pitcher to go 5-0 in his first five games against the Yankees franchise is Johnson, who did it with the Washington Senators in 1907-08 against the New York Highlanders.
  • Archer has struck out 15 in his last two starts, and the Rays need nine strikeouts to break the 2002 Chicago Cubs major league record of 286 in a month.
  • Tampa Bay, 4-3 in the season series, took two of three in the Bronx from May 2-4. The Yankees lead 168-114 overall, 91-49 in New York, 26-23 at the new stadium.
  • The Yankees are 17-3 when leading after the first inning, 24-35 in all other games.
  • Meanwhile, the Rays are 26-14 when they score four or more runs.
  • Per Marc Topkin, “The Yankees have been muddling along, winning 12 of 21 going into Sunday night, but have stayed near the top of the mediocre AL East. Like the Rays, a lack of offense has been their primary problem. SS Derek Jeter, who turned 40 on Thursday, has been hot, along with 1B Mark Teixeira. Aside from Masahiro Tanaka, whom the Rays won’t face, their rotation has been pedestrian, still missing injured CC Sabathia. Middle reliever Dellin Betances has been the best in a solid bullpen.”
  • The Rays have claimed Cory Burns off waivers from the Texas Rangers. Per Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors, “The right-hander has spent parts of the last two seasons in the majors but has been with Texas’ Triple-A affiliate for 2014. Burns, 26, owns a 7.44 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 19 relief appearances and one start this season. In a combined 27 appearances for the Padres and Rangers between 2012 and 2013, Burns posted a 4.60 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9. The Rays will assign him to Double-A Montgomery; they DFA’d RHP Angel Sanchez to make room on the 40-man roster.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Look For the Series Win Sunday

Steve Pearce watches a solo home run hit by Desmond Jennings in the first inning. (Photo courtesy of Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
Steve Pearce watches a solo home run hit by Desmond Jennings in the first inning. (Photo courtesy of Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

The eighth inning in Saturday’s may not have been pretty, but the Rays picked up their second win of the series against the Orioles by a score of 5-4, behind solid pitching and timely home runs to earn the victory. Credit where it’s due, Erik Bedard pitched seven solid, efficient innings and earned the win for Tampa Bay. Tagged with the loss, Wei-Yin Chen was knocked out of the game in the fourth inning. Jake McGee stopped a late charge by the Orioles and was credited with a four out save — his third in as many opportunities.

Desmond Jennings got things started early, hitting a leadoff home run, and setting the tone for the rest of the game. That particular homer was the 11th relinquished by Chen, who ended the day with numbers 12 and 13 under his belt. Of those 13 homers, nine have come from the leadoff spot. Tampa Bay struck again in the second inning, after Sean Rodriguez hit a one out single to left to give the Rays a baserunner. With the well primed, Logan Forsythe finally hit his first home run as a Ray, crushing a misplaced pitch to center, and giving the Rays a 3-0 lead.

Forsythe, once again, reached safely in the fourth on a leadoff single, before Kevin Kiermaier went yard to right, extending the lead to five. Chen faced one more batter (Jennings, BB) before Brad Brach came on in relief. Brach ended the inning without yielding any more runs.

Bedard was excellent most of the day, blanking the Orioles until the sixth inning when Nick Markakis was able to pull in his hands and turn on a well located, inside curveball that was down and off the plate.

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That blue dot represents Markakis’ sixth inning solo shot. (Courtesy of Brooks Baseball)

Frenchy owned the O’s up to that point — tossing an efficient 68 pitches through six (only 14 balls), while striking out six. Bedard  changed speeds and locations, keeping the Orioles hitters off balance, and coaxing weak contact all along.

He, however, encountered day ending trouble in the bottom of the eighth. JJ Hardy led off the inning off with a base hit to right before Manny Machado drove him in on a home run off of the foul pole in left. A game of inches — had Machado pulled to ball a few inches to the left, we’d be talking about a foul ball instead.

The Rays made a valiant effort to tag on an insurance run when Ben Zobrist hit a one out triple to deep right. The next batter, Brandon Guyer, hit a ball hard, but right at a drawn in Jonathan Schoop to bring up Evan Longoria. But Longo struck out looking on a center-center change up to end the inning.

Grant Balfour, who has been pitching better of late, came on in relief and quickly induced a fly ball from Jonathan Schoop. But Delmon Young took him to center on a pinch hit single, bringing up the top of the order. For Delmonster, he’s now 7-13 in pinch hit opportunities. Markakis was next, singling to right and moving Young to second. The tension was high, and the fans at Camden yards were on their feet. Steve Pearce was next in the box, but the maligned reliever was able to pop him up for the second out of the inning.

Maddon pulled Balfour in favor of Jake McGee to face the red-hot Adam Jones. A game of inches — Jones hit a seeing eye single just out of the reach of the dive of Logan Forsythe, bringing Young around to score, and cutting the Rays’ lead to one. McGee managed to get an inning ending fly ball out from Nelson Cruz.

McGee came back out in the ninth, and locked down things down with a 1-2-3 inning. Of note; he earned a tip of the cap from Machado, who struck out swinging on an excellent curveball after an extended at-bat.

The Rays were fortunate with their early, timely hits. Baltimore’s relievers shut down the Rays after Chen’s departure, striking out eight while allowing four base runners in 5-2/3 innings — holding Tampa Bay to 0-7 wRISP.

The New What Next

Alex Cobb and the Rays will close out the series against Miguel Gonzalez and the Orioles this afternoon. Cobb is looking for redemption following his last start, and the Rays are looking for the series win. Gonzalez wasn’t very sharp in his last outing against Tampa Bay, lasting only five innings while relinquishing four runs on eight hits, including a pair of homers. The only thing that saved the O’s in that game were the seven runs they scored. Gonzalez is averaging just over 5-1/2 innings pitched per start, and went just five in his last two. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 6/29/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist SS
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer DH
Forsythe 2B
Molina C
Kiermaier RF
Cobb RHP

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays pitchers need 19 strikeouts in the remaining two games in June to set the all time record for strikeouts in a month.
  • Marc Topkin writes, “If the Rays have any hope of salvaging this season and making a run at a playoff spot – or even respectability – they have to start winning series to do so. So after they beat the Orioles Saturday to win two of the first three in what became a four-game series due to the makeup of the April 15 rainout, manager Joe Maddon – who almost never says any one game is more important than another – pretty much said today’s game is very important, about as much of a must-win as there can be on June 29 anyway.”
  • Your tweet of the day:

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Split Double Header with the O’s

Tightrope walker, Jake Odorizzi. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Tightrope walker, Jake Odorizzi. (Photo courtesy of AP Photo/Gail Burton)

The Tampa Bay Rays split the difference with the Baltimore Orioles Friday, taking the first game of their double header by a 5-2 margin, while dropping the second 4-1. The Rays hitters, who were able to put together good at-bats in the first game, looked listless and lethargic at the plate in the second game. For me, the story of the night surrounded Jake Odorizzi. He certainly didn’t have his A-stuff, in fact Odorizzi missed his spots all night, especially up in the zone. We’d later find out that the Rays righty had a fingernail issue on his throwing hand, which made it hard for him to throw — much less command — anything but his fastball (which he threw 92 times). And despite the fact that he left his pitches in very hittable locations, the Orioles’ big boppers couldn’t tag him for more than one run. The O’s comically whiffed at 12 letter high fastballs — some that were put there intentionally, some which were accidents that the Orioles couldn’t pounce upon. In the end, Odorizzi was able to induce a 14% swinging strike rate, which is very good for a fastball.

A friend and I discussed Odorizzi’s outing last night, and we came to the consensus that it felt like David Price’s 2012 start against the Yankees. Price lasted only five innings in that game, but he held the Yankees down, and allowed the Rays to be competitive throughout. Similarly, Odorizzi was in trouble from the get go in his 100+ pitch outing, yet he walked away in the fifth after relinquishing only one run. His start was even more remarkable considering that Odorizzi was essentially a one pitch pitcher. The tight rope walker somehow held the O’s to only one run on six hits and four walks, striking out six along the way. In the first five innings, Baltimore was 1-9 wRISP, having stranded nine base runners — including six in a pair of bases loaded situations in the second and fifth innings.

Odorizzi has now given up two runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. It’s rather comforting that a bad outing from Jake Odorizzi now means two runs or fewer over five innings.

Unfortunately Odorizzi’s tight rope antics were for not; Juan-Carlos Oviedo quickly gave up a solo shot — and the lead — to Nick Hundley in the sixth, while Joel Peralta followed by giving up a leadoff double to Adam Jones, and a two-run shot to Nelson Cruz in the seventh. After a streak of 22 consecutive home run free outings, Oviedo has been hammered for three long-balls in his last 5-2/3 innings of work.

The New What Next

BA confirmed what I made mention of in the series preview; no one has run away with things in the AL East, making an 85 win playoff berth seem reasonable. But there isn’t any wiggle room. Because of it, I’d imagine that Erik Bedard will be watched very closely in his outing this afternoon against Wei-Yin Chen. The Rays were able to cull their only other win against the Orioles when Chen took the mound on the 16th. Much like Erik Bedard, Chen tends to operate on a pitch count, and the Rays will have an opportunity to see a lot of pitches and knock Chen out of the game early. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 6/28/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist SS
Guyer LF
Longoria DH
Loney 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Forsythe 2B
Hanigan C
Kiermaier RF
Bedard P

Noteworthiness

  • Kevin Kiermaier bunted twice in the second game. His first attempt bounded up the third base line, but Manny Machado, who sniffed out the bunt, was playing in and threw him out comfortably. “That wasn’t a smart play,” mentioned BA in the telecast. Kiermaier dragged the second bunt up the first base line. He was initially called out, but upon review the call was reversed and he was given the hit.
  • Longoria didn’t have a bad day, going 3-4 in the second game.

Rays 6/27/14 Starting Lineup(s), Etc

"It's a beautiful day for baseball, let's play two!" -- Ernie Banks
“It’s a beautiful day for baseball, let’s play two!”
— Ernie Banks

Rays 6/27/14 Starting Lineup (Game 1)

Jennings CF
Kiermaier RF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer LF
Joyce DH
Rodriguez 2B
Molina C
Colome RHP

Game one game peripherals

The Rays came from behind an early deficit to take down the Orioles in the first game of the day/night double header, by a score of 5-2. Alex Colome was credited with the win, and Jake McGee culled his second save of the year. Bulleted highlights follow.

  • Ultimately Alex Colome wore the run he gave up in the sixth inning — after all, he gave up the base hit and the walk. However, had Jośe Molina put more effort in blocking the first of two wild pitches — which were black-able, the first run never would’ve scored.
  • “Two wild pitches, that under ordinary circumstances would have been block-able.”– DeWayne Staats, on Jośe Molina’s inability to block pitches in the dirt.
  • Interesting; the Rays have turned three efficient double plays since Yunel Escobar has been out with a sore throwing arm (two today). I’m not implying it’s telling…but, I’m certainly not implying it’s not.
  • Though not dominant, Alex Torres is in line for the win after putting together a good 5.2 IP/2 H/1 ER/4 BB/3 K outing on 104 pitches (63 strikes). Colome got better as the game progressed, especially with his slider. After he walked Crush Davis with two-outs, Boxberger came on in relief and quickly rung up Nelson Cruz (swinging) on three pitches. Despite the solo shot off the bat of Manny Machado, Boxberger retired four Orioles via the strikeout.
  • Nice job by Grant Balfour to put the O’s down in order in the eighth; coaxing three ground-ball outs — two to the right side, and one to Longo who was protecting the line.
  • The bulk of the offensive production came from the six-through-nine hitters. Brandon Guyer, Matt Joyce, Jośe Molina, and Sean Rodriguez combined to go 7-14 with four runs and five RBI. Guyer had a huge day at the plate, going 3-3 with three doubles, two runs, and an RBI. Tampa Bay ended the first game 4-8 wRISP.
  • Jake McGee is now 2-2 in the save department, closing out the game with a 1-2-3 ninth including two strikeouts (one swinging).

 

Rays 6/27/14 Starting Lineup (Game 2)

Jennings DH
Kiermaier CF
Zobrist SS
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Guyer LF
Joyce RH
Hanigan C
Forsythe 2B
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

  • The Rays will reached the midway point after the first today; with the win, the Rays put up their worst since first half since 2007 (also 33-48).
  • Tampa Bay will be starting two rookie pitchers for only second time in team history (22 previous double headers). The last time came in Boston in 2013 (Odorizzi and Archer).
  • Since June 9th, the Rays have a 2.75 ERA; the fourth best in the majors. That’s also the day Medicine Man Bobby Henry paid visit to The Trop. Hmm….

 

The New What Next: Rays vs. Orioles — the Gauntlet Begins

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The Rays players and coaching staff meet on the field following the series salvaging, 5-1 win against the Pirates, Wednesday. (Mandatory photo credit Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

If you subscribe to the idea that the Tampa Bay Rays still have a shot at remaining relevant in the second half of the season, the two upcoming series’ against the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are incredibly important. After all, no one has run away with things in the AL East — making an 85 win playoff berth seem reasonable — and the Rays have an opportunity to gain some major ground against their direct competition (to the tune of seven games) over the next six days. It all starts Friday, when the good guys head to Baltimore for a four game set against the Orioles, including a double header in the series opener.

The definition of a gauntlet is a severe trial; an ordeal, and I’d imagine the next four games against the Orioles fit that description well. The Rays have won only one measly game against Baltimore this season. And though Tampa Bay has been competitive in six of their eight previous meetings, it’s not going to be easy the next few days. Historically, Tampa Bay has risen to the occasion when faced with a challenge, yet that fight has been largely absent this season.

Rays and Orioles series starters.
Rays and Orioles series starters.
Rays and Orioles offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Orioles offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Orioles, by the numbers.
Rays and Orioles, by the numbers.

Kevin Gausman: Stacey Folkemer of Camden Chat writes, “As for Gausman, as long as he continues to pitch as well as he has been, he isn’t going anywhere. Since his ill-advised start against the Tigers on May 14th, Gausman has put together three straight good games against the A’s, Blue Jays, and Rays. That’s two good hitting teams and the Rays. This will be his first time this season seeing a team for the second time, so it will be interesting to see if the Rays will make adjustments after Gausman pitched six shutout innings against them on June 18th.” It should be mentioned, the Rays were able to tag Gausman for five hits and a walk, so it’s not as though they were facing King Felix. Pair that with the thought that a handful of players have put together good numbers against the Orioles 23 year-old RHP, though that productivity is over an incredibly small sample size. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (4-5, RBI), Kevin Kiermaier (1-3), Evan Longoria (2-6, 2B, RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (4-7, 2 2B, 2 RBI).

Chris Tillman: Since getting knocked out of the game after just one inning against the Texas Rangers at the beginning of June, Chris Tillman has put together decent starts against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees. He pitched reasonably deep into those games, and didn’t give up a lot of runs, though he struggled with walks — walking seven in that span, and striking out five in 20 innings. Those aren’t promising numbers. Evan Longoria has owned Tillman over 30 plate appearances with 11 hits including two doubles and five home runs. He’s also walked five times. Matt Joyce has an OPS of .987 in 25 plate appearances with two homers, a double, and a triple. And Ben Zobrist has only had six hits against Tillman in his career (.188 BA), but three of them are home runs. Key matchups: Ryan Hanigan (1-2), Matt Joyce (7-24, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB), Evan Longoria (11-27, 2 2B, 5 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB).

Wei-Yin Chen: The Rays were able to cull their only win against the Orioles when Chen took the mound on the 16th. Much like Erik Bedard (who will oppose the Orioles LHP, Saturday) Chen tends to operate on a pitch count, and the Rays will have an opportunity to see a lot of pitches and knock Chen out of the game early. Per Folkemer, “Look for a lot of righties against Chen, as they reach base a bit more often against him (.303 OBP vs .314 OBP), but hit for power quite a bit higher (.407 SLG vs .466 SLG).” Key matchups: Brandon Guyer (1-3), Matt Joyce (1-4, 2 BB), James Loney (3-6, 2 2B), Jose Molina (2-5, 2B, RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (10-28, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB).

Miguel Gonzalez: Gonzalez wasn’t very sharp in his last outing against Tampa Bay, lasting only five innings while relinquishing four runs on eight hits, including a pair of homers. The only thing that saved the O’s in that game were the seven runs they scored. Gonzalez is averaging just over 5-1/2 innings pitched per start, and went just five in his last two. Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (6-22, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 4 BB), Matt Joyce (5-18, 2 2B, RBI, 5 BB), Evan Longoria (6-21, HR, RBI, 2 BB), Jose Molina (4-16, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (1-2, HR, RBI).

Noteworthiness

  • Per Marc Topkin, “Since taking two of three from the Rays last week, the O’s have won four of six, two by walkoff over the White Sox, and moved within 1½ games of first place. They lost RHP Bud Norris to injury however, and should find out today if 3B Manny Machado’s appeal reduced his pending five-game suspension and when he’ll start serving. OF/DH Nelson Cruz leads the majors with 64 RBIs and shares the home run lead with 24 as the O’s rank among the AL’s top offenses.” The Orioles have turned a major-league most 93 double plays , while the Rays have hit into a major-league co-leading 73.
  • The Rays on the other hand, have gone 5-5 in their last 10-games, also winning their eight of their last 15, while averaging just under four runs per game in that span.
  • The Orioles lead the season series 7-1; 143-142 overall, 74-65 in Baltimore.