The New What Next: Rays vs. Tigers — the Gauntlet Continues

Brad Boxberger and Ryan Hanigan celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees. (Photo courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Brad Boxberger and Ryan Hanigan celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees. (Photo courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Rays’ 11-game road gauntlet has gone well so far, and they’ll attempt to continue their success this weekend, when they head to Detroit for a four game wrap around series against the Tigers. For the Rays, they are currently 6-1 on the road, coming off a huge three-game sweep of the New York Yankees. Tampa Bay has found a way to remain relevant, thanks in large part to a productive offense that has averaged just under five runs per game (over the last 14-days).

At 12-6 since June 15th, Tampa Bay has improved its overall win/loss record to 38-49 for a .437 WP — or, 40-47 for a .460 Pythagorean Expectation if you prefer. Despite the sub .500 win/loss record, when you factor in the Rays’ pitching and defense — especially over the last three weeks — one thing becomes glaringly obvious: They should be a formidable opponent for the Detroit Tigers.

In kind, the Tigers have always been a formidable opponent for Tampa Bay, and it would be frankly stupid to assume that they won’t pose a hurdle for the Rays over the next four days. Much like the Rays, the Tigers have been hot over a 10-game span; going 8-2, while averaging five runs per game. And in those 10 games, the pitching staff has held opponents to three runs or fewer five times, including two shutouts by Rick Porcello, who the Rays will face Sunday.

Neil Solandz said it best in the post-game show following the series finale Wednesday; if the Rays can split the series with the Tigers, they’ll return Monday with an impressive 8-3 road-trip under their belts. In the end, they’ll need to win between 66%-75% of their upcoming games if they have any hope of remaining relevant, and an 8-3 road-trip completely fits those parameters.

Rays and Tigers series starters.
Rays and Tigers series starters.
Rays and Tigers offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Tigers offensive production at home, away, and over the last 14 days.
Rays and Tigers, by the numbers.
Rays and Tigers, by the numbers.

Max Scherzer: Scherzer has always been tough on the Rays, and there’s no reason to expect anything different out of the Tigers’ 29 year-old RHP. Then again, the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has had a rough go of things of late, surrendering a career high-tying 10 runs over four-plus innings in an 11-4 defeat to Kansas City on June 17. For Scherzer, it was the fifth time in six starts he allowed at least four runs — something he had done just four times in his previous 33 games. However, he boasts a 2.70 ERA during during a three-start winning streak against the Rays, striking out 25 and walking five over 20 innings while allowing just 12 hits. In the Rays favor, opposing hitters have been able to make more contact on pitches off the fastball/curve ball/slider/changeup throwing pitcher. For a team that likes to force pitchers over the plate, this may offer a glimmer of hope.

Drew Smyly: Per Rotowire, “Smyly, who gave up four runs over 2.1 innings in Sunday’s start against Houston, is dealing with an upper respiratory infection, MLive’s James Schmehl reports.” The Rays have had a measured amount of success against Smyly in his last two starts, tagging the lefty for four runs on eight hits, including a homer in 11 innings of work — measured being the operative word. Those 11 innings have come over two starts in which the Rays slashed a combined .174 BA/.269 OBP/.391 SLG/.661 OPS line. If anything holds true for Smyly: 1. He is try tough on lefties, 2. He is prone to giving up home runs (his 1.19 HR/9 speaks to that), 3. His +4 FIP is largely predicated on the 10 homers he’s given up, and 4. Smyly strands a lot of runners on base. Key matchups: Evan Longoria (1-1, 2B, BB), Jose Molina (1-2, 2B, RBI).

Anibal Sanchez: The Rays have had success against Sanchez over the last few years, extending back to when he was a Marlin. Despite that, he’s been good this season. The Tigers are on a four game winning streak when Sanchez is on the bump, and Sanchez ceded all of 12 earned runs in his six June starts. Key matchups: Matt Joyce (4-12, 2B, 2 3B, HR, 3 RBI), James Loney (4-10, 3B), Jose Molina (2-4, HR, 2 RBI).

Rick Porcello: And your marque pitching matchup of the series, Rick Porcello vs. David Price. Porcello is on a run of three consecutive shutout starts. Overall, Porcello has given up two earned runs or fewer 10 times this season. Porcello throws both a two-seam and four-seam fastball — both of which can reach the mid-90s (although the four-seamer is a bit faster). His heavy two-seamer/sinker has plenty of life down in the zone and induces ground balls (his 47.4 GB% speaks to that). Key matchups: Desmond Jennings (3-10, RBI), James Loney (2-7, 2B, RBI, BB).

Noteworthiness

  • The Tigers have won 11 of 13 and are coming off a three-game sweep of Oakland, which owns the best record in baseball. They were losers of 20 of 29 before the current hot spell.
  • Tampa Bay split six meetings with the Tigers in 2013, losing two of three in Detroit.
  • Logan Forsythe is 11-for-21 during a streak of five straight multiple-hit games.
  • The Rays are 4-1 in Erik Bedard’s last five outings, a stretch during which he’s struck out 30 and walked five over 26 1-3 innings.
  • The Rays have recalled IF Vince Belnome from Triple-A Durham, corresponding by optioning LHP Jeff Beliveau back to the Bulls. It should be noted: The 10-day rule (on staying in the minors) does not apply to paternity leave cases; Ramos is expected to leave Saturday.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: How Sweep It Is!

Sean Rodriguez celebrates his sixth inning two run home run against the New York Yankees with Logan Forsythe. (Photo courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Sean Rodriguez celebrates his sixth inning two run home run against the New York Yankees with Logan Forsythe. (Photo courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Sweep! The Tampa Bay Rays are able to exit the Bronx in huge, sweeping fashion on the heels of a huge 6-3 win against the Yankees. Despite falling behind early, Tampa Bay battled back — putting up one spots in the third, fourth, and fifth innings knotting things up at three apiece. Then they pulled ahead in the sixth inning on a huge Sean Rodriguez two-run blast to left-center — the longest homer at Yankee Stadium in two years (445 feet, measuring 102.1 MPH off the bat).

They were able to tack on an insurance run in a gaffe filled ninth inning, thanks to Yangervis Solarte and former Ray Kelly Johnson.

Jake Odorizzi wasn’t dominant in his 5.2 IP/8 H/3 ER/1 BB/4 K/2 HR 101 pitches (66 K, 65% K%) outing, though — credit where it’s due — he was able to work his way out of jams in the first, third, and fourth innings — making the big pitch when he needed to. Brad Boxberger came on in the ninth to close out the game, tallying his first save of the year, after putting down the tough top of the order in, well…order.

For the Rays, they are now 6-1 on their road trip following the three-game sweep of the Yankees. They’ll make their way to the Motor City for a four game set against the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers.

Consider this scant recap, since I’m working on the Rays/Tigers series preview at the moment. I live blogged the game on our Tumblr site. You can check out the (almost) blow-by-blow account of the game there.

Click the screenshot to be redirected to our Tumblr page.
Click the screenshot to be redirected to our Tumblr page.

We’ll have our series preview tomorrow morning.

Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Price Solid, Loney Goes Yard, and the Rays Won 2-1

David Price delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning. (Photo courtesy of Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
David Price delivers a pitch against the New York Yankees during the first inning. (Photo courtesy of Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Grant Balfour made things hairy in the ninth, yet the Rays were still able to win the middle game of the series by a score of 2-1 — also winning the series in the process. David Price may have fallen short of his 10-K goal by one — a fact that’s irrelevant in the scheme of things — but he still walked away with a “W” behind a strong outing. Balfour was credited with the save.

David Price primarily relied upon his fastball/changeup combo, limiting the Yankees to one run over seven innings. He out-dueled Hiroki Kuroda, allowing only four hits (three singles and a double) along with three walks while striking out nine. That one runwas scored on an awkward play, after Price picked Jacoby Ellsbury off first base, culminating in a poorly executed rundown.

Offensively, the Rays’ runs came on a pair of singles in the top of the fourth by Matt Joyce and Evan Longoria, followed by a soft ground ball up the middle off the bat of Logan Forsythe, one out later. The red-hot Forsythe went 2-4 with an RBI last night, this on the heels of a solid .315 BA/.351 OBP/.463 SLG/.814 OPS month of June. Then in the sixth inning, James Loney crushed a hanging curve ball, pulling it 401 feet to the right-center bullpen.

The New What Next

Now that the Rays have now won the series, and Jake Odorizzi will go for the sweep against Vidal Nuno and the Yankees. Odorizzi is coming off an impressive one run/five inning start against the Orioles. On the other side of things, Nuno blanked Tampa Bay over five innings in his first start against the Rays in April, giving up only three hits. But the Rays came back to hammer the 26 year-old lefty for four runs on five hits, including a Desmond Jennings two-run shot, in a 10-5 routing of the Yankees. Overall, Nuno has given up an average of 4-3/4 runs in half of his 16 starts, with six of those eight starts culminating in a loss. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview.

Rays 7/2/14 Starting Lineup

Jennings CF
Zobrist DH
Guyer LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Forsythe 2B
Rodriguez SS
Hanigan C
Kiermaier RF
Odorizzi RHP

Noteworthiness

  • Many have questioned why Grant Balfour closed out the game, especially following his two-walk tightrope act. I submit to you this:
  • With his scoreless eighth inning, Jake McGee now has a 1.21 ERA — the lowest among AL relievers.
  • ESPN never misses an opportunity to get a dig in on the Rays:

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  • Per Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors, the Rays have agreed to sign teenage über prospect, INF Adrian Rondon. Todd writes, “The Rays have agreed to sign international prospect Adrian Rondon, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com (via Twitter). He will earn a $3.3MM bonus, per Deportes’ Dionisio Soldevila (via Twitter).”
  • Looking Backward While Moving Forward: Rays Beat Yanks in Extra Innings, 4-3

    Kevin Kiermaier and Ben Zobrist celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees. (Photo courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
    Kevin Kiermaier and Ben Zobrist celebrate after defeating the New York Yankees. (Photo courtesy of Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

    It certainly wasn’t the offensive onslaught of the previous game, and the more productive bats in the lineup may have been held to 2-15 on the night, but the Rays were able to walk away from New Yankee Stadium with a 4-3, extra innings win under their belts. Chris Archer was pretty damn good, and Logan Forsythe was inarguably the hero of the game for his play on both sides of the field — playing a solid second base while also driving in the go-ahead run in the 12th.

    Despite cooling down significantly toward the end of the game, Matt Joyce gave the Rays an early lead after he hammered a two out home run to right center. Evan Longoria followed with a single, but Loney struck out swinging to end the inning. Tampa Bay was able to double the lead in the top of the third inning, when The Outlaw Kevin Kiermaier hit a full count, leadoff homer right. Kiermaier has now gone yard in three consecutive games, becoming only the second Rays’ rookie to do so, alongside Evan Longoria.

    Unfortunately the Evil Empire got both runs back in the bottom of the third, starting when Ichiro Suzuki reached safely on a Chris Archer HBP. The next batter, Brett Gardner, hit a triple up the right field line, driving in Ichiro from first. It bears mentioning: The hit got past Kiermaier in right field. If it was fielded cleanly, Gardner would have been held to a double at best. The Captain was next, driving in the tying run on a groundout to second base. Archer showed signs of spiraling out of control after he walked the next batter, Jacoby Ellsbury, who promptly stole second base — giving the Yankees another threat. But Archer managed to retire the next two batters, keeping the tie intact.

    Archer settled down though, and allowed only three other Yankees to reach. He forced weak contact, including a huge inning ending double play in the seventh. All told, the Rays righty slashed 7 IP/5 H/2 ER/2 BB/4 K while coaxing eight ground ball outs — six to Logan Forsythe at second base.

    The Rays came up empty handed in the sixth and seventh, despite mounting major two-out rallies in each inning. The rally in the sixth chased starter David Phelps from the game and brought in Adam Warren. The Yankees righty got Brandon Guyer to ground out to end the inning with a pair of runners on the bags. Then in the seventh, Warren gave up a two out single to Kiermaier before walking Desmond Jennings and Ben Zobrist to load the bases, bringing Joyce to the plate. The Rays DH grounded out to second, ending the threat with the bases loaded.

    Tampa Bay finally broke up the tie in the eighth inning, this time cashing in on a two out rally. Dellin Betances mechanics broke down with two-outs and…well, we’re all better for it. As BA pointed out in the telecast, Betances’ frontside flew open before he could get his arm out front, and as a consequence he walked both Guyer and Logan Forsythe, ending his night. Yankees skipper Joe Girardi put in David Robertson with hopes of squelching the fire, yet Ryan Hanigan had a different plan — he singled to left and drove in the go-ahead run, giving the Rays a 3-2 lead.

    The Yankees mounted a threat of their own with Jake McGee pitching the eighth inning. Ellsbury, who was on base three times, reached on a one-out, seeing eye single to right. After McGee struck out Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann hit a double that fell just in front of a diving Brandon Guyer. Guyer’s fielding gaffe could have proven costly, however Ellsbury’s two-out running gaffe saved a run for the Rays. The Yankees center fielder should have scored easily, but Ellsbury was not running hard as he rounded second — possibly believing the ball would be caught. And though the Yankees third base coach emphatically waved him around, Ellsbury ended up on third. Carlos Beltran popped out to end the inning.

    With the lead in hand, Joel Peralta came on to close things out in the ninth inning. He, however, was not able to nail down the game, blowing his fourth save of the season. Brian Roberts teed off on a good splitter on the inside corner of the plate — again tying the game, this time at three apiece. For Peralta, the problem wasn’t the pitch, it was the sequencing. He sped up the bat of Roberts on three consecutive fastballs, then threw an off-speed pitch which Roberts dug out and hit off the facing of the second deck.

    The Rays found themselves in another bases loaded situation in the top of 11th inning, but it was for not. Forsythe led off the inning with a single to right, and Kiermaier followed with a single of his own, moving the runner to second. Jennings loaded the bases after being hit by a pitch for the second time, bringing Zobrist to the plate with one out. However, Zobrist and Joyce ended the inning with a whimper — both struck out swinging.

    Brad Boxberger entered the game for the Rays and pitched a perfect bottom of the 11th.

    The 12th inning proved to be decisive for the Rays. In a bout of deja vu, Guyer walked with two outs and stole second to get into scoring position. Forsythe responded in kind, hitting a soft liner into shallow center to bring Guyer home.

    Boxberger remained in the game and pitched a perfect bottom of the 12th to end the game. Rays win, 4-3.

    The New What Next

    David Price will get the start for the Rays tonight, butting heads with Hiroki Kuroda. The Rays have been good against Kuroda over in his last 29-1/3 innings of work, tagging the 39 year-old RHP for 26 runs (24 earned) on 34 hits, including an abbreviated 5-2/3 inning outing in April. Kuroda was okay in his last start Wednesday, allowing three runs on eight hits with four strikeouts, in a 6-1/3 inning start against the Blue Jays. You can read about the pitching matchup in our series preview, and I’ll post the starting lineup when it becomes available.

    Rays 7/1/14 Starting Lineup

    Jennings CF
    Zobrist SS
    Joyce LF
    Longoria 3B
    Loney 1B
    Forsythe 2B
    Figueroa DH
    Molina C
    Kiermaier RF
    Price LHP

    Noteworthiness

    • It looks like Yunel Escobar is headed to the DL, retroactive to June 25. He is eligible to come off the DL on July 11th. Rather than calling up an infielder to take Escobar’s place, the Rays chose to bolster the bullpen — at least over the short-term — by adding reliever Jeff Beliveau. Beliveau has pitched in two games this season for the Rays, retiring all six batters he’s faced.
    • Since June 11, the Rays have the second-best record in the AL (12-7) behind the A’s (12-4). Tampa Bay no longer owns the worst record in MLB, now just ahead Arizona.
    • Logan Forsythe tied the team record with 10 assists last night.
    • The Rays struck out nine, closing out the month of June with 287 strikeouts — making MLB history for the most strikeouts by any team in a single month.
    • Despite the slow start, the Rays ended the month of June on a 10-6 run, extending back to June 15th.
    • Tampa Bay is now 27-14 when it scores four or more runs, 4-3 in extra innings games, and 13-10 in one-run games.
    • Your tweet of the day:

    Rays 6/30/14 Starting Lineup, Etc

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    Rays 6/30/14 Starting Lineup

    Jennings CF
    Zobrist SS
    Joyce DH
    Longoria 3B
    Loney 1B
    Guyer LF
    Forsythe 2B
    Hanigan C
    Kiermaier RF
    Archer RHP

    Noteworthiness

  • Don’t forget to read up on the upcoming Rays/Yankees series in our preview.
  • The last pitcher to win his first five career games against the Yankees was Walter Johnson in 1907-08. Tonight, Chris Archer will try to join him.
  • In non-Rays related news, 10 months of Houston Astros’ internal trade talks have been released. Amongst the revelations, the Miami Marlins were willing to trade Giancarlo Stanton for prospects Carlos Correa and George Springer, and the Red Sox were willing to part ways with Xander Bogaerts for Bud Norris. In true Astros fashion, they really crapped the bed.