Here we go. The second leg of the Rays 11-game road gauntlet commences in the Bronx, Monday, where Tampa Bay will take on the Evil Empire in a three-game set. The Rays are riding a massive wave of momentum following their big series victory against the Orioles, not to mention a pretty damn good second half of June — since June 15th, Tampa Bay has gone 9-6, outscoring their opponents 67-53 in that span, while averaging 4.46 runs per game. Tampa Bay is finally showing what they should have looked like right out the gate, while the Yankees are playing sluggishly of late — proving that $400 MM in offseason acquisitions may not necessarily equal a great team.
Consider this for a moment. Masahiro Tanaka (who the Rays won’t be facing in this series) is 11-3. The Yankees are 41-39 on the season, with a .476 Pythagorean Expectation. Of those $400 MM worth of offseason acquisitions, only one, Tanaka, has made them an above average team.
What’s more, the Yankees are 41-39 (.476 PE, or 37-43) on the season, while the Rays are 35-49 (.473 PE, or 38-46). PE, or Pythagorean Expectation, is an estimation of how many games a baseball team “should” have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. That is, the Yankees have been incredibly lucky/advantageous this season, whereas the Rays have not.
Since there really hasn’t been a startling difference in offensive production between the Rays and Yankees — especially over the last 14 days — the one thing that’s pushed them over has been Tanaka. When he’s not on the mound, the Yankees are indeed a pretty beatable team.
The Yankees dropped the final two games against the Boston Red Sox over the weekend and are losers of six of their last eight contests. New York pitching surrendered 12 hits in Sunday’s finale, while the staff has allowed an average of 6.5 runs in the last six losses, needing to burn through five relievers on Sunday, including two innings from top setup man Dellin Betances.
David Phelps: Phelps was rocked for six runs on eight hits in five innings in Toronto on Tuesday. Prior to that, he yielded a total of two earned runs over 13-2/3 innings in his previous two outings. As in previous seasons, Phelps has racked up strikeouts as well as walks, and doesn’t have an apparent second skill — like an ability to coax ground ball outs. That could bode well for Tampa Bay. The Rays last faced the 27 year-old RHP on June 21, 2013, when he surrendered two runs in 5-2/3 innings to earn a win. Key matchups: Yunel Escobar (4-10, BB), James Loney (3-10, 2B, RBI), Jose Molina (1-3), Sean Rodriguez (1-4, RBI), Ben Zobrist (5-12, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB).
Hiroki Kuroda:The Rays have been good against Kuroda over in his last 29-1/3 innings of work, tagging the 39 year-old RHP for 26 runs (24 earned) on 34 hits, including an abbreviated 5-2/3 inning outing in April. Kuroda was okay in his last start Wednesday, allowing three runs on eight hits with four strikeouts, in a 6-1/3 inning start against the Blue Jays. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-4, BB), Desmond Jennings (3-11, RBI, BB), Matt Joyce (6-16, 3 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (7-17, 2B, HR, 5 RBI), Ben Zobrist (5-15, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB).
Vidal Nuno: Let’s review Nuno’s two starts against the Rays this season. In his first outing, back in April, Nuno blanked Tampa Bay over five innings, giving up only three hits. But the Rays came back to hammer the 26 year-old lefty for four runs on five hits, including a Desmond Jennings two-run shot, in a 10-5 routing of the Yankees. Overall, Nuno has given up an average of 4-3/4 runs in half of his 16 starts, with six of those eight starts culminating in a loss. Key matchups: Logan Forsythe (1-3, 2B, RBI), Desmond Jennings (2-6, 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Evan Longoria (2-7, 2B, 3B), Jose Molina (1-4, 2B).
Noteworthiness
- Matt Joyce went 5-for-6 with a pair of home runs as the Rays slugged out 11 extra-base hits on Sunday.
- Chris Archer (4-5, 3.29 ERA) is the second pitcher in the last 30 years to win his first four starts against New York (41-39), joining Ervin Santana in 2005-06. The last pitcher to go 5-0 in his first five games against the Yankees franchise is Johnson, who did it with the Washington Senators in 1907-08 against the New York Highlanders.
- Archer has struck out 15 in his last two starts, and the Rays need nine strikeouts to break the 2002 Chicago Cubs major league record of 286 in a month.
- Tampa Bay, 4-3 in the season series, took two of three in the Bronx from May 2-4. The Yankees lead 168-114 overall, 91-49 in New York, 26-23 at the new stadium.
- The Yankees are 17-3 when leading after the first inning, 24-35 in all other games.
- Meanwhile, the Rays are 26-14 when they score four or more runs.
- Per Marc Topkin, “The Yankees have been muddling along, winning 12 of 21 going into Sunday night, but have stayed near the top of the mediocre AL East. Like the Rays, a lack of offense has been their primary problem. SS Derek Jeter, who turned 40 on Thursday, has been hot, along with 1B Mark Teixeira. Aside from Masahiro Tanaka, whom the Rays won’t face, their rotation has been pedestrian, still missing injured CC Sabathia. Middle reliever Dellin Betances has been the best in a solid bullpen.”
- The Rays have claimed Cory Burns off waivers from the Texas Rangers. Per Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors, “The right-hander has spent parts of the last two seasons in the majors but has been with Texas’ Triple-A affiliate for 2014. Burns, 26, owns a 7.44 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 19 relief appearances and one start this season. In a combined 27 appearances for the Padres and Rangers between 2012 and 2013, Burns posted a 4.60 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9. The Rays will assign him to Double-A Montgomery; they DFA’d RHP Angel Sanchez to make room on the 40-man roster.