More than 20 Rays arrive early to camp; Trop to get new playing surface

More than 20 Rays players worked out early in Port Charlotte. Pitchers and catchers officially report to camp next week. (Photo Credit: Marc Topkin/Tampa Bay Times)

On Wednesday, more than 20 Tampa Bay Rays players arrived to camp early and worked out in Port Charlotte. Pitchers and catchers officially report to camp next week.

Among the early attendees (both big and minor leaguers) were Matt Andriese — who PECOTA projects to crack the starting rotation — Curt Casali, Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome, Matt Duffy, Ryan Garton, Luke Maile, Steven Souza Jr., Jose Alvarado, David Carpenter, Dana Eveland, Eddie Gamboa, Taylor Guerrieri, Ryne Stanek, Chase Whitley, Hunter Wood, Ryan Yarbrough, Willy Adames, Ryan Brett, Nick Ciuffo, Casey Gillaspie, Jake Hager and Adrian Rondon.

Both Souza and Duffy underwent surgery toward the end of the season, yet they are expected to be ready for Opening Day. Another critical part of the Rays, Jim Hickey, also found himself under the knife for shoulder repair surgery, though his recovery hope is modest — he aims to throw batting practice in the playoffs.

In other news, the Rays added depth behind the plate to their spring roster, acquiring Jesus Sucre from the Seattle Mariners for cash or a player to be named later.

According to Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) over his last four big league seasons (totaling 90 games), Sucre collected a .209 batting average and a .522 OPS. In 2015 he appeared in 50 games (43 starts) and hit .157. Sucre played only nine major league games last season after breaking his leg in winter ball.

Sucre is considered a solid catcher with a strong arm. Since he is not on the 40-man roster, having been designated for assignment by Seattle, the Rays do not have to make space on the roster for the backstop.

Finally, after years of internet mockery (see here, here, and here), the Rays are planning to install new turf at the Trop prior to Opening Day.

The new, and presumably improved, Shaw Sports Turf is expected to be easier on the players by providing a firmer and truer surface, which also should look better. Unlike what currently is in place, a hard foam pad will be laid between the concrete base and the turf, with fiber blades and a rubber in-fill system.

Unsurprisingly, turf technology has evolved in the last five years and we think the new turf wil be better for our players’ bodies and play a little truer, and aesthetically will be an improvement on TV and in person, team president Brian Auld said.

After viewing samples from four companies, the ball club went with Shaw, who will install the fifth different playing surface in 20 years of play at Tropicana Field.

We continue to invest in Tropicana Field, Auld said.It’s our home and we want to make it the best venue we can for Major League Baseball.

The team will continue with the all-dirt base paths with turf on the infield and outfield. The new turf is said to be a touch darker, with a shallower fill which should keep the blades standing up and create less “splash” when a ball hits the surface.

 

The 2017 PECOTA projections are in; Rays make official Logan Morrison deal

The Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a one-year deal with 1B Logan Morrison Tuesday afternoon. To make room on the 40-man roster, the club traded LHP Enny Romero to the Nationals in exchange for minor league RHP Jeffrey Rosa. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released the PECOTA projections for the 2017 season. The projection system likes the Rays’ off-season moves thus far, forecasting the Rays as the sixth best team in the American League, and second best team in the AL East with a mean average of 84 wins to 78 losses. Expect the addition of a few key pieces to the bullpen, as well as a right-handed bat, to increase the mean projection.

How will the Rays fare in the East? Here are a few highlights from Baseball Prospectus. A full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription.

(Photo Credit: Baseball Prospectus)
  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2017. Their projected 690 runs allowed is fourth best in the American League ― just three runs behind Cleveland (their closest competitor) ― for fewest runs allowed.
  • The Nate Silver curated system projects Tampa Bay to score 722 runs — 50 more than they plated in 2016. The projected .245 BA/.310 OBP/.407 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .243 BA./307 OBP/.426 SLG line collected by the team last season ― albeit with less pop.
  • Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .260 is 17 points higher than last season’s batting average. Of note: their projected slugging percentage is the lowest in the AL East.
(Photo Credit: Baseball Prospectus)
  • Out of Luke Maile and Curt Casali, PECOTA projects Maile to get the majority of playing time behind the plate (55% vs 30%).
  • At first, Brad Miller was projected to get the bulk of the playing time, however, that all changed due to the re-signing of Logan Morrison. Nevertheless, Miller is projected to post a 2.2 WARp. Unsurprisingly, PECOTA likes Kevin Kiermaier for a 5.6 WARp in center — the strongest position for the Rays.
  • PECOTA likes Matt Duffy at short, so much so that he is projected to post a 2.6 WARp — four points higher than former SS, Brad Miller.
  • Colby Rasmus is projected to get 70% of the reps in left field, followed by newcomer Mallux Smith with 20% of the reps. The tandem is projected to combine for a 1.2 WARp.
  • Corey Dickerson’s .277 TAv that is 15 points higher than Wilson Ramos, and because of it he looks to receive the most playing time at DH.
(Photo Credit: Baseball Prospectus)
  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Chris Archer (189 IP, 3.0 WARp), Jake Odorizzi (186 IP, 1.6 WARp), Matt Andriese (160 IP, 1.7 WARp), Blake Snell (122 IP, 1.2 WARp), and Alex Cobb (122 IP, 1.1 WARp). Eddie Gamboa, Chase Whitley, Jacob Faria, Taylor Guerrieri, Jose de Leon, and Jamie Schultz may also factor into the rotation in some capacity.
  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.
  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 27.0 runs above average — tied for fourth best in the AL. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays (tied with Toronto) the others by a fairly negligible margin…unless you’re the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -4.3 FRAA.
  • Overall, the Rays are projected for a total WARp of 32.6 (12.1 pitching and 20.5 non-pitching) — second best in the AL East behind Boston (39.4).

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays could end the season playing relevant ball in October, then again they could go about reconfiguring the roster once more. Still, a projected 84 win season (90 or 78, thanks a six game margin of error) has got to make every Rays’ fan eager for something better than the 68 win 2016 season.

Noteworthiness

— USA Today has a far different perspective on the upcoming season, projecting the Rays to sit at the bottom of the AL East with a 75-87 record.

— MLB Analyst Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports) writes, “The Rays, not the Dodgers, had the high bid for free agent Sergio Romo, according to major-league sources; the former Giants reliever, who grew up in a family of Dodgers fans in Brawley, Ca., took less to stay on the West Coast, according to major-league sources. His deal with the Dodgers, which is pending a physical, is for one year and $3 million, per FanRag Sports.”

His conclusion, the Rays could be a surprise contender if everything goes right. Rosenthal goes on to say,

The pursuit of Romo demonstrated that the Rays still want to add a late-inning reliever to a mix that already includes right-handed closer Alex Colome, righty Brad Boxberger and lefty Xavier Cedeno. The team also would like to acquire a right-handed hitter either through free agency or trade, sources said, with first baseman Byung Ho Park — recently designated for assignment by the Twins — among the possibilities.

Do not confuse the Rays with the Reds, Brewers or any other rebuilding club with zero designs on contention; Tampa Bay is putting together a team that, if everything goes right, could emerge as a surprise contender. FanGraphs currently projects the Rays to finish tied for third with the Yankees in the AL East at 82-80 — and another addition or two could push that projection higher.

If anything, it’s an interesting national perspective on the Rays.

— The Rays agreed to a one-year deal with 1B Logan Morrison Tuesday afternoon. To make room on the 40-man roster, the club traded LHP Enny Romero to the Nationals in exchange for minor league RHP Jeffrey Rosa.

Sights and sounds of Rays Fan Fest; Stu Sternberg on the stadium search

It was a beautiful day to be indoors Saturday. The Tampa Bay Rays hosted their annual Fan Fest at Tropicana Field. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

The Tampa Bay Rays hosted their annual Fan Fest on Saturday, giving players and team staff the opportunity to mix with the fans at the crowded Tropicana Field.

If you have followed this blog for any substantial amount of time, you already knew that any number of X-Rays Spex staffers would be on hand Saturday. What follows are a few things we documented here and there, among others.

A healthy crowd was on hand for manager Kevin Cash, Rays VP of Baseball Operations James Click, and DeWayne Staats’ Q&A panel. (Photo Credit: Anthony Ateek/X-Rays Spex)

During a Q&A session between Rays manager Kevin Cash, Rays VP of Baseball Operations James Click, and Rays TV broadcaster DeWayne Staats, the topic of the Logan Forsythe/Jośe de Leon trade came up. Click, tasked with answering the question, noted the difficulty of trading the team favorite in a move that we fans have become all too familiar with.

Cash also handled the topic of player buy-in during the Q&A session.

It has become an annual tradition for Rays Principal Owner Stu Sternberg to host a State-of-the-Rays conversation with the local media during Fan Fest, and he did so again yesterday.

During an on-air interview with 620 WDAE, Sternberg said the Rays will whittle down a list of a half-dozen potential sites down to a “pin-perfect” choice before then end of the 2017 season. It remains a hope of his not to pit Pinellas County versus Hillsborough County.

Sternberg later told Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) he has been watching a state bill that would kill public stadium funding, as well as Bill Edwards and the Rowdies’ pitch to expand Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg to accommodate a bid for an MLS expansion team:

We, I believe, firmly put our best foot forward every day and our intentions are as pure as possible to get something done. However, if because the soccer team is here helps or doesn’t, if someone in Tallahassee helps or doesn’t, or interest rates change, those are things completely out of my control.

Among other revelations, Sternberg attempted to quell the concerns of others, saying he has “no thoughts of selling,” the ball club, although he gets regular inquiries about investing in, buying or relocating the Rays.

I have not engaged in any of it…That’s a no.

Noteworthiness

— In a piece titled Another Way Kevin Kiermaier is Underrated, Jeff Sullivan (FanGraphs) found that both Kiermaier and Logan Forsythe are tied for the toughest pitchers faced in Major League Baseball last season — lending credence to the idea that the Outlaw is due a breakout season at the plate.

— Despite the deals with Logan Morrison and Rickie Weeks, Tampa Bay still intends to remain involved on Chris Carter, Matt Wieters and now Byung Ho Park, who was just designated for assignment by the Twins. Others still under consideration are Mike Napoli and Franklin Gutierrez (who would spend time in the outfield).

Rays re-sign Logan Morrison; ink minor league deal with Rickie Weeks

The Tampa Bay Rays re-signed Logan Morrison to a one-year, $2.5-Million deal Friday afternoon. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

The Tampa Bay Rays made a pair of deals Friday afternoon, agreeing to a one-year, $2.5-Million contract (including $1-Million in incentives) with first baseman/designated hitter Logan Morrison, and inking a minor league deal with INF Rickie Weeks.

It would appear, with Morrison returning, the team will move Brad Miller off first and over to second base. The newly acquired infielders should put to rest any remaining whispers surrounding the Rays and National League co-home run champion Chris Carter, although they could still add a right-handed bat tweets Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times)

Tampa Bay will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move to make Morrison’s re-signing official. As for Weeks, in the 2003 draft the Rays were forced to choose between he and Delmon Young for the top pick. They took Young, and the rest is history.

Finally, the team officially announced the previously reported signings of right-handed pitchers David Carpenter and Cory Rasmus — both of whom received minor league deals. All earned invitation to Spring Training.

We will update this piece shortly, keep checking back.

Rays sign RHP Cory Rasmus; reconnect with RHP David Carpenter

Rasmus squared. The Rays signed RHP Cory Rasmus, younger brother of OF Colby Rasmus, to a minor league deal on Wednesday. (Photo Credit: Unknown)

With less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to camp, the Tampa Bay Rays inked a minor league deal with right-hander Cory Rasmus — the younger brother of outfielder Colby Rasmus — reports Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times). They also brought back David Carptener, who spent Spring Training with Tampa Bay last season.

After a brief MLB debut (and stint) with the Atlanta Braves in 2013, Rasmus spent the majority of the past four seasons with the Angels organization, where he found success in both 2013 and 2014. However, he struggled the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 5.56 ERA in 45-1/3 innings. Between 2013 and 2016, Rasmus amassed a 4.17 ERA/4.49 FIP in 84 games (eight starts) across 123 innings.

Despite below-average velocity and some control issues, Rasmus is a fly ball pitcher who has racked up 121 strikeouts. He also boasts a pristine Triple-A track record, while posting a 10.5/4.5 K9/BB9 in parts of three seasons at that level.

As mentioned above, Carpenter spent time with the Rays in Spring Training last season. Yet in spite a strong spring campaign, he was released in late March. The righty spent the remainder of the season in the Angels organization, although he never reached the major leagues. Be that as it may, Carpenter has accumulated a 3.66 ERA/3.63 FIP over the course of 218 major league games (211 combined innings).

Noteworthiness

— The search for a right handed bat continues. Per Topkin, the Rays are said to be in discussions with Chris Carter. He also noted that as recently as Tuesday night, Carter’s agent Dave Stewart said they were “not close to anything” with Tampa Bay.

The ever intrepid Ken Rosenthal also checked on the status of talks with the Rays, and Stewart told him, “We’ve had enough conversations – I know what they’re thinking. We just haven’t advanced in that direction yet.”

It’s Rosenthal’s opinion that “The Rays appear to be Carter’s best major-league possibility, according to Stewart and major-league sources.” ESPN’s Jim Bowden added to the discussion, tweeting that Carter would rather play in MLB than in Japan.

Another intriguing, albeit potentially unrealistic, option is Matt Wieters — the switch-hitting catcher/1B from Baltimore, who also could be used at DH.

With several teams in on Wieters, it’s difficult to gauge the likelihood of he signing with the Rays at the moment.