The Tampa Bay Rays agreed to a one-year deal with 1B Logan Morrison Tuesday afternoon. To make room on the 40-man roster, the club traded LHP Enny Romero to the Nationals in exchange for minor league RHP Jeffrey Rosa. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released the PECOTA projections for the 2017 season. The projection system likes the Rays’ off-season moves thus far, forecasting the Rays as the sixth best team in the American League, and second best team in the AL East with a mean average of 84 wins to 78 losses. Expect the addition of a few key pieces to the bullpen, as well as a right-handed bat, to increase the mean projection.

How will the Rays fare in the East? Here are a few highlights from Baseball Prospectus. A full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription.

(Photo Credit: Baseball Prospectus)
  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2017. Their projected 690 runs allowed is fourth best in the American League ― just three runs behind Cleveland (their closest competitor) ― for fewest runs allowed.
  • The Nate Silver curated system projects Tampa Bay to score 722 runs — 50 more than they plated in 2016. The projected .245 BA/.310 OBP/.407 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .243 BA./307 OBP/.426 SLG line collected by the team last season ― albeit with less pop.
  • Overall, the Rays true average (Tav; a measure of total offensive value scaled to batting average) of .260 is 17 points higher than last season’s batting average. Of note: their projected slugging percentage is the lowest in the AL East.
(Photo Credit: Baseball Prospectus)
  • Out of Luke Maile and Curt Casali, PECOTA projects Maile to get the majority of playing time behind the plate (55% vs 30%).
  • At first, Brad Miller was projected to get the bulk of the playing time, however, that all changed due to the re-signing of Logan Morrison. Nevertheless, Miller is projected to post a 2.2 WARp. Unsurprisingly, PECOTA likes Kevin Kiermaier for a 5.6 WARp in center — the strongest position for the Rays.
  • PECOTA likes Matt Duffy at short, so much so that he is projected to post a 2.6 WARp — four points higher than former SS, Brad Miller.
  • Colby Rasmus is projected to get 70% of the reps in left field, followed by newcomer Mallux Smith with 20% of the reps. The tandem is projected to combine for a 1.2 WARp.
  • Corey Dickerson’s .277 TAv that is 15 points higher than Wilson Ramos, and because of it he looks to receive the most playing time at DH.
(Photo Credit: Baseball Prospectus)
  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Chris Archer (189 IP, 3.0 WARp), Jake Odorizzi (186 IP, 1.6 WARp), Matt Andriese (160 IP, 1.7 WARp), Blake Snell (122 IP, 1.2 WARp), and Alex Cobb (122 IP, 1.1 WARp). Eddie Gamboa, Chase Whitley, Jacob Faria, Taylor Guerrieri, Jose de Leon, and Jamie Schultz may also factor into the rotation in some capacity.
  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.
  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 27.0 runs above average — tied for fourth best in the AL. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays (tied with Toronto) the others by a fairly negligible margin…unless you’re the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -4.3 FRAA.
  • Overall, the Rays are projected for a total WARp of 32.6 (12.1 pitching and 20.5 non-pitching) — second best in the AL East behind Boston (39.4).

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays could end the season playing relevant ball in October, then again they could go about reconfiguring the roster once more. Still, a projected 84 win season (90 or 78, thanks a six game margin of error) has got to make every Rays’ fan eager for something better than the 68 win 2016 season.

Noteworthiness

— USA Today has a far different perspective on the upcoming season, projecting the Rays to sit at the bottom of the AL East with a 75-87 record.

— MLB Analyst Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports) writes, “The Rays, not the Dodgers, had the high bid for free agent Sergio Romo, according to major-league sources; the former Giants reliever, who grew up in a family of Dodgers fans in Brawley, Ca., took less to stay on the West Coast, according to major-league sources. His deal with the Dodgers, which is pending a physical, is for one year and $3 million, per FanRag Sports.”

His conclusion, the Rays could be a surprise contender if everything goes right. Rosenthal goes on to say,

The pursuit of Romo demonstrated that the Rays still want to add a late-inning reliever to a mix that already includes right-handed closer Alex Colome, righty Brad Boxberger and lefty Xavier Cedeno. The team also would like to acquire a right-handed hitter either through free agency or trade, sources said, with first baseman Byung Ho Park — recently designated for assignment by the Twins — among the possibilities.

Do not confuse the Rays with the Reds, Brewers or any other rebuilding club with zero designs on contention; Tampa Bay is putting together a team that, if everything goes right, could emerge as a surprise contender. FanGraphs currently projects the Rays to finish tied for third with the Yankees in the AL East at 82-80 — and another addition or two could push that projection higher.

If anything, it’s an interesting national perspective on the Rays.

— The Rays agreed to a one-year deal with 1B Logan Morrison Tuesday afternoon. To make room on the 40-man roster, the club traded LHP Enny Romero to the Nationals in exchange for minor league RHP Jeffrey Rosa.

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