LBWMF: Snell, Rays end 2017 campaign on a high note, blanking the O’s 6-0

The Rays picked up a new ballboy on Sunday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays ended the 2017 season on a hight note, handily defeating the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday, 6-0. They collected just their second series sweep of the 2017 campaign, while finishing the year in the midst of a four-game win streak. Blake Snell set a single-game career high in strikeouts at 13, and Tampa Bay’s hurlers fanned a combined 18 batters.

Prior to his start on Sunday, Snell hadn’t struck out more than nine batters in a Major League game. However, that all changed during his matinee masterpiece, as the southpaw fanned at least two batters in every inning but the sixth. Snell didn’t allow a single free pass and struck out 13 — the most by a Rays pitcher this year.

Snell put down the first 12 batters before Trey Mancini led off the fifth inning with a single to right-center. After wild pitching Mancini into scoring position, Snell struck out Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis before he got J.J. Hardy to pop out to left, ending that threat.

Mancini was the only base runner until the seventh inning, when he reached on a strikeout wild pitch. Trumbo moved him up to second on an infield hit before Davis grounded out to second, ending the frame and the day for Snell at 100 pitches.

This outing could be seen as his arrival. It clearly was the best start of Snell’s young career, and it’s exciting to think what he can do moving forward, especially without the services of Alex Cobb and potentially Jake Odorizzi. The southpaw’s talent is there in spades, and contrary to his early season numbers, he has shown how well his stuff plays at the big league level, especially of late.

Curt Casali put Snell on the winning of the ledger with a solo homer to left in the fifth off Orioles’ starter Kevin Gausman.

It was the catcher’s first homer of the season, and — as Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted — came in just his eighth at-bat with the Rays.

Tampa Bay extended the lead with a five-run eighth after Brad Boxberger collected a perfect top of the inning, including a pair of strikeouts. Corey Dickerson got the rally started with a one-out single to left off Brad Brach. Lucas Duda followed with a base hit to right-center, putting runners at the corners. Evan Longoria joined in on the fun with a double to right, before Logan Morrison pushed the lead to three runs with a single to center. Brach allowed a pair of free passes to Steven Souza Jr. and Trevor Plouffe, which forced home a run to the Rays up by four, spelling the end of his night.

Mike Wright entered the ball game and promptly walked Casali for another run, then Mallex Smith hit a sacrifice-fly to center, pushing the lead to 6-0.

Finally, Chaz Roe worked around a two-out single to complete the team’s second shutout in the final three games of the season, and the ninth overall.

All in all it was bittersweet ending to a season overflowing with promise, because the Rays fell shy of a postseason berth by just four games. Sadly we also must to say our goodbyes to one of the best pitchers in franchise history, Alex Cobb … although we saw that coming months ago. That doesn’t make it any easier, as he undoubtedly would be the one starting Tuesday night against the Yankees in the AL Wildcard game. Sour grapes.

Then again, the Rays outscored the Orioles 17-3 over the span of the weekend. And if you believe in moral victories of any sort — and if BaseRuns was a determining factor in the postseason — the Rays should have ended the year with an 86-76 record, while the Twins should be sitting at 82-80.

As it was written elsewhere, here’s to hoping for an offseason of progress in player development and personnel.

Noteworthiness

— We’ll be rooting on the Minnesota Twins in the Wildcard game on Tuesday (preview to come), as well as moving forward throughout the postseason. From there, we’ve got Cleveland, assuming the Twins fade away. Expect coverage of either team (or both) after a quick breather on Monday.

— Aside from the fact that Sergio Romo had a dominant second half, performing to a 1.47 ERA/2.96 FIP over 30-2/3 innings of work, the Rays should re-sign him for another reason: He’s a damn good ballboy.

The New What Next: one last game before a long, cold offseason

Adeiny Hechavarria swiped third base in the eighth inning of Saturday night’s ball game. (Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Although we’ve come
to the end of the road,
still I can’t let go.
It’s unnatural…

— Boyz II Men

At 3:10 this afternoon, the Tampa Bay Rays will take the field one last time, in search of their 80th win of the season and the fourth in as many days. For the Rays, it’s an inglorious and begrudgingly settled upon goal — one that comes after they started the final month of play with postseason aspirations. Yet their desire was officially dashed about a week back, on October 26, resulting in the ultimate de facto goal.

In all fairness, those aspirations were all but a pipe dream back on September 1 when the team started a stretch of 22-games against clubs that either were ahead of them in the AL Wildcard rankings, or in the AL East standings. Back then Tampa Bay was just 3-1/2 games back of Minnesota for the last playoff spot, and four-games behind the slumping Yankees. But when you go 9-14 over a 23-game stretch, culminating in a loss on September 26, the most you can hope for is an 80 win season.

We’ll dig deeper into what went wrong later, but first things first.

Today we say our goodbyes to eight players that will be free-agents after the 27th out is recorded. Some of them meant a lot to the organization, while others probably never should have donned a Rays’ jersey in the first place. They are RHP Alex Cobb, 1B/DH Logan Morrison, 1B/DH Lucas Duda, RHP Steve Cishek, RHP Tommy Hunter, RHP Sergio Romo, OF Peter Bourjos, INF Trevor Plouffe.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote that the most likely of the Rays’ eight pending free agents to return is Sergio Romo, which we here at X-Rays Spex would be over the moon for. We also hope with the highest of hopes that Stu Sternberg will open the coffers, and allow the front office to make some bold moves in the off-season.

We, however, aren’t naive and we know what the future likely holds. That’s what makes the season finale so gut wrenchingly tough.

I’m not looking forward to Cobb’s “BJ Upton circa 2012” moment, and it sounds like he isn’t either. In an ideal world, Cobb, like Evan Longoria, would be with the Rays for the entirety of his career. But this is not an ideal world, rather it’s a business built on the frugality of any given owner — Sternberg not precluded.

The right-hander told Topkin that while he is excited for the future, he isn’t excited for what will be an emotional goodbye:

Saying my goodbyes to everybody has been real tough. That’s been really difficult. You don’t realize how many relationships you formed over the years.

We’ll have an elegy for Alex Cobb in the forthcoming weeks.

Here we are fans of a small market team. Because of it we have become numb to both losses on the field and in the clubhouse. Familiarity of this feeling, however, doesn’t make things any easier. So here is to one last win before we watch 10 other teams battle it out in the playoffs, starting Tuesday.

The New What Next

The Rays look to sweep a three-game series, and win a fourth straight, to conclude the year. Tampa Bay (79–82) has won the season series against Baltimore 10-8, and is looking for its first sweep since doing so against Detroit April 18-20.

A victory today, as Neil Solondz (Rays Radio) noted, also would give the Rays 80 wins, matching their high under Kevin Cash set in 2015 — a 12-game improvement over last season.

Blake Snell (4-7, 4.27 ERA, 4.46 FIP) will get the start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Kevin Gausman (11-11, 4.81 ERA, 4.56 FIP).

Snell suffered a loss on Tuesday (his first since July 24) when the Yankees chased him after just one inning — snapping a 10-start unbeaten streak (the longest of his career). The poor start came on the heels of his best outing of the season, a 7 IP/2 H/0 ER/5 K outing against the Cubs.

Gausman wasn’t slated to start again this season, however, with Jeremy Hellickson unavailable due to a back issue, Showalter will hand him the ball for one final outing. He’s coming off a loss to Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs in just four innings of work, but prior to that he performed to a 2.25 ERA in four September starts. The 26-year-old right-hander, that owns a 4.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 179-2/3 innings this season, Blanked the Rays over six innings on July 24 while fanning eight. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-8, 2B, RBI), Lucas Duda (1-4), Trevor Plouffe (4-9, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Cesar Puello (1-2, RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-8, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 3B, BB), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 10/1/17 Starting Lineup

Dickerson LF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza Jr RF
Plouffe 2B
Casali C
Smith CF
Robertson SS
Snell LHP

Noteworthiness

— We’ll be rooting on the Minnesota Twins in the Wildcard game on Tuesday (preview to come), as well as moving forward throughout the postseason. From there, we’ve got Cleveland. Expect coverage of either team (or both) after a quick breather on Monday.

Sternberg doesn’t anticipate an enormous payroll dropoff for the 2018 Rays

(Photo Credit: Will Vragovic/Tampa Bay Times)

Any astute follower of the Tampa Bay Rays could tell you that principal owner Stu Sternberg typically opens up to the media, around the same time every year, to give his autopsy of the season. In fact a quick internet query would find that Sternberg has done as much every year since he took over as the principal owner, and this season is no different.

More often than not, a similar theme runs through every autopsy: the Rays don’t have enough money because they were not able to generate enough revenue — thanks a lot, fans — and because of it, they must reduce the payroll by massive proportions …  despite the fact that the team’s value has steadily increased each season since Sternberg took over. Again, this season is no different.

On Thursday and Friday of this week, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) published the most recent Q&A autopsy with Sternberg — although to be fair, we cannot be 100% certain that his responses weren’t cut-and-pasted from those of the previous nine seasons. I kid of course.

Bulleted highlights from the Q&A autopsy follow:

— The Rays principal owner is disappointed by the team’s late fade from playoff contention, although he doesn’t regret going all in and dealing prospects for midseason upgrades.

We’d do it 10 times out of 10 again…I’d love to be in that position every year to be able to do that with the kind of team we thought we had, and the team we had up until the All-Star break, Sternberg said.

Going all in this season, however, could come at a cost, as it may impact next season’s plans. The payroll will “absolutely” drop from its current $80MM range said Sternberg, although he doesn’t “anticipate” an enormous payroll dropoff or a shift towards a rebuild. Be that as it may, he also didn’t entirely rule out the possibility:

The team is good enough clearly, and we have confidence in the guys, but we’ll see how the offseason goes. Who’s available to us? What’s available in trade for us? We try to react to what the market is going to bear.

…We try to react what the market is going to bear. Last off-season we were fortunate we needed a first baseman back at a time when first basemen weren’t at a premium and we hit beautifully with Logan (Morrison). We added a shortstop (Adeiny Hechavarria) who has been just enormously helpful for us. You never know what is goign to available and why. Last year we picked up (Colby) Rasmus and maybe things would’ve been different if he had stuck it out, if (Kevin) Kiermaier stayed (healthy). If, if, if.

“But you’re not going into the off-season thinking this is the year to cut back to like $30-million?” asked Topkin.

No. It could always happen; I don’t anticipate it happening.

— Don’t expect any management changes in the forthcoming season, as Sternberg expressed confidence in the front office and in Kevin Cash’s work in the dugout.

— The Rays continue to lag in the financial resources department. This season saw more low attendance numbers despite the fact that they were playing relevant baseball for most of the 2017 campaign. Sternberg cited lower-than-expected attendance numbers from the Red Sox and Cubs series, not to mention the two-week impact on attendance due to Hurricane Irma — including the unexpected shift of a home series to Citi Field.

We’ll get revenue but the games are very expensive to put on, and they were attended, but not like 40,000, 50,000 people showing up, it was a $25 set price. And we had to house and transport people for four extra days on the road in New York. And a lot of other expense like overtime (for staff at the Trop) and buttoning the place up and some damage to the stadium. All in all, it was a minus-minus-minus. However, having said that, we’re incredibly fortunate for what could have been.

— The Tampa Bay Times again found a way to give a taciturn endorsement of a new stadium in Tampa, by way of Topkin’s line of questioning, “With the season ending, how soon could there be an announcement of a stadium site selection, given the reported Ybor City option?”

We’re ready. Whenever Hillsborough or Tampa make their pitch, we’re ready. We’ve worked with them a bunch, and we’re waiting to hear the pitch. There’s nothing more for me to do at this point.

It was a fair answer to a rather misleading question which implied that a stadium in Ybor City is all but certain. As Noah Pransky (Shadow of the Stadium) pointed out, maybe we’ll finally get to hear all the taxpayer subsidies our elected leaders have been offering up behind closed doors the last few years.

I digress.

In my opinion, a clearer line of questioning on the part of Topkin — one takes both Pinellas and Hillsborough counties into consideration — would have been preferable. Then again, that wouldn’t really fit the Times’ single issue focused mold.

— Because a new television contract is “way down the road,” although and he wouldn’t say when, the Rays could end up receiving less than they currently do for broadcast rights given what’s gone on with cord-cutting and the value of cable. Sternberg also hinted that the organization could explore starting their own TV network:

If it’ll even be a contract – we might end up starting a network at some point. When the time comes and we can negotiate a TV contract there will be a lot of parties to talk to. .. Unfortunately it’s not the environment for that given what’s gone on with cord-cutting and the value of cable, so I don’t expect it or anticipate it to be nirvana. Ideally when and if something gets done it could move the needle. By the same token it might end up being less than where we are now. It’s way down the road.

The New What Next: Rays Vs. Orioles — one final series preview

Corey Dickerson and the the Rays took the final game of the series with the Yankees on Thursday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After salvaging a win in the series finale with the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays return home on Friday, where they will kick off their final series of the season. Enter the Baltimore Orioles.

(Stats: MLB.com)

Dubbed the Battle For Third Place in the AL East, the Rays must win these last three games to end the season with 80 wins, and in third place … this after falling out of contention on Tuesday, as well missing an opportunity to end the campaign with a better than .500 record. Baltimore is coming off a two-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates.

This dynamic duo of under performing ball clubs split a four-game set last weekend, and are knotted up at eight-games apiece in the season series — the Rays are 2-3 vs. Baltimore at home.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

When comparing pitching staffs over the last 14 days, one could assume that Tampa Bay has a major advantage over Baltimore, and they should be able to close out the season on a high note. The team also had a legitimate shot at sweeping the O’s last weekend, yet they couldn’t get the job done. The rest, as they say, is history; they dropped the next two games against the Yankees and consequently fell out of contention, relevancy, and favor with Bay Area sports fans that are now focused on the Bucs and Lightning.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the final three days Kevin Cash will turn to Jake Odorizzi (10-8, 4.26 ERA, 5.52 FIP), Chris Archer (9-12, 4.18 ERA, 3.43 FIP), and Blake Snell (4-7, 4.27 ERA, 4.46 FIP). Buck Showalter will counter with Wade Miley (8-14, 5.52 ERA, 5.22 FIP), and presumably Miguel Castro (3-2, 3.29 ERA, 4.87 FIP) and Kevin Gausman (11-11, 4.81 ERA, 4.56 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Odorizzi has enjoyed a strong finish to his 2017 season, which should build his trade value going into the off season; there already are trade rumors surrounding the lanky right-hander. In two of his last four starts, Odo carried a no-hitter through at least five innings. He is 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA in September — a 22-1/3 inning run that has included 26 strikeouts. He’s allowed just three earned runs over four September starts, allowing him to lower his ERA from 4.85 to 4.26. In his last turn, Odorizzi allowed a first-inning run, but silenced Baltimore’s hitters bats the rest of the way.

Miley has been awful throughout most of the season, yet he is looking to finish strong in his final start. In his last three outings, Miley has performed to a 13.94 ERA over 10-1/3 innings. He has performed similarly against Tampa Bay this season, allowing seven runs on nine hits and nine walks over 13 innings of work. If I may, that’s no way to throw if you’re looking to have the remaining option on your contract picked up this winter. I digress. Key Matchups: Lucas Duda (1-3), Adeiny Hechavarria (4-12, 2B), Kevin Kiermaier (4-15, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB), Wilson Ramos (3-7, 2B, 3 RBI), Mallex Smith (1-3, RBI), Steven Souza Jr. (6-22, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB)

Archer lost in Baltimore on Sunday after he allowed five earned runs on eight hits over just 3-2/3 innings of work. He looks to right the ship, and end the season on a high note, after dropping five consecutive decisions for the first time since June 11-July 15, 2016 (6). Over that span he has allowed 21 runs over 16-2/3 innings, making for a discouraging stretch.

Castro was handed a loss after he allowed two runs on one hit and three walks over a 1-2/3 inning relief appearance against Boston. He struck out two. The right-hander hasn’t started a game this season, so I wouldn’t expect him to pitch deeply on Saturday. In nine innings of relief work this season against Tampa Bay, Castro has allowed four runs (two earned) on eight hits and and three walks. He has struck out three. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-1, 2B, BB), Adeiny Hechavarria (1-2), Kevin Kiermaier (1-2), Evan Longoria (1-4, RBI, 2BB), Logan Morrison (1-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB), Daniel Robertson (1-3), Steven Souza Jr. (2-5, 2B, RBI)

Snell suffered a loss on Tuesday (his first since July 24) when the Yankees chased him after just one inning — snapping a 10-start unbeaten streak (the longest of his career). The poor start came on the heels of his best outing of the season, a 7 IP/2 H/0 ER/5 K outing against the Cubs.

Gausman wasn’t slated to start again this season, however, with Jeremy Hellickson unavailable due to a back issue, Showalter will hand him the ball for one final outing. He’s coming off a loss to Pittsburgh in which he allowed six runs in just four innings of work, but prior to that he performed to a 2.25 ERA in four September starts. The 26-year-old right-hander, that owns a 4.81 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 179-2/3 innings this season, Blanked the Rays over six innings on July 24 while fanning eight. Key Matchups: Curt Casali (3-8, 2B, RBI), Lucas Duda (1-4), Trevor Plouffe (4-9, 2 2B, HR, 4 RBI, BB), Cesar Puello (1-2, RBI), Wilson Ramos (2-8, HR, RBI), Mallex Smith (2-4, 3B, BB), Jesus Sucre (2-6, 2 2B, RBI)

Tampa Bay Rays 9/27/17 starting lineup and pregame notes

Maybe next year, Evan. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

After dropping the first game of a three-game series with the Yankees, 6-1 — while also officially falling out of playoff contention — the Tampa Bay Rays now focus their sights on ending the season with a .500 record. In order for them to do so, the Rays will have to win their remaining five games of the season, starting tonight in New York.

The New What Next

Matt Andriese (5-4, 4.62 ERA, 4.89 FIP) will start for the Rays, pitching opposite of Luis Severino (13-6, 3.03 ERA, 3.08 FIP).

Andriese is looking to avoid his fourth loss in five starts. After performing to a 3.45 ERA in his first 11 turns, Andriese has posted an unsightly 8.47 ERA, and has allowed five homers in four starts since returning from the DL. He, however, turned in a solid six-inning, three-run start on Thursday, blanking the Orioles from the second inning on after allowing three first inning runs.

Severino was chased after he allowed three runs on five hits over three-innings of work. Be that as it may, he has a chance to climb up the Yankees’ single-season strikeout leaderboard against the Rays on Wednesday. He enters play with 221 strikeouts (fifth most) with a chance to catch David Cone (222) and CC Sabathia (230). Severino has allowed three-runs on 10 hits and four walks over 12 innings of work this season. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-2, HR, RBI), Corey Dickerson (4-8, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB), Evan Longoria (5-17, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI), Logan Morrison (1-4, 2B, RBI, BB), Mallex Smith (1-1), Steven Souza Jr. (3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Jesus Sucre (1-2, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/27/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Duda DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Souza RF
Dickerson LF
Hechavarria SS
Miller 2B
Sucre C
Andriese RHP

Noteworthiness

Thank you for everything, Alex! Rays skipper Kevin Cash confirmed that Alex Cobb indeed will skip his final turn of the season on Thursday. The right-hander made a career best 179-1/3 innings and 29 starts this season, and is slated to be a free agent. We will have a proper goodbye following the season.

— Remember last week when we wrote that Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays?

Rays 9/22/17 starting lineup and pregame notes; Tampa just isn’t that in love with the Rays

As it turns out, a certain other “local” blog has gone out of its way to project its own (contrary) narrative. Don’t get me wrong, this site is great and informative, however, what should be acknowledged is that taxpayer’s opinions are their own regardless whether a survey is scientific or not. Contrary to popular belief, and I know this may be shocking, but maybe — just maybe — the taxpayers of Tampa find things like infrastructure and mass transit to be more important, than something like a new baseball stadium … especially when those citizens are still paying off Raymond James Stadium, as well as other facilities.