The Tampa Bay Rays will go from facing one “Sox” ball club to the other Tuesday, when they head to Boston for a three-game series at Fenway. A very disjointed Rays will battle the reigning World Series champs, in the battle for last. That is, at 12-14 and 11-15 (respectively), both teams sit at the bottom of the AL East, behind the Blue Jays. Why disjointed?
Joe Maddon would be (and has been) the first to admit that the pitching has been less than stellar of late. Yet, they haven’t been completely out of the games they’ve recently lost — Monday night’s four run loss to the White Sox speaks to that. Simply put, they haven’t been able to sync up the pitching and hitting when they’ve so desperately needed too. In the end, a three or four run gap is not one that a good team cannot overcome. Consider too, the Rays gave up 11 two-out runs over the course of their four game set against the ChiSox, including six two-out runs (yes, six) Monday night. A weak link? The bullpen, which has given up 16 of 27 total runs over the past seven days. The offense was no better, batting .167 wRISP (6-36) over the course of the series in Chicago. The (little) consolation if there was one the Rays, per their Pythagorean Expectation, should be 12-14. I’d reckon two games under .500 sounds better than four.
Boston, on the other hand, isn’t playing at the highest level either. The Red Sox have struggled in 2014, and have failed to win more than two straight. Furthermore, they’re only 5-8 at Fenway, 3-1/2 back of the first-place Yankee. They (like the Rays) will not be above .500 come May 1st, with two games left in the season’s first month of play.
John Lackey: The mouth-breather has gone 1-2 with an 8.84 ERA while pitching fewer than six innings in his recent starts against Tampa Bay. Lackey also gave up four runs and walked three in 5 1-3 innings of a 7-4 victory in Game 2 of last season’s division series against the Rays. We’re well versed in the ways of Lackey by now — after all, X-Rays Spex has written about him at length for the past few years. You know what to expect out of him: poorly located fastballs and hittable cutters (he’s given up five homers on those pitches alone), and a put away curve-ball. The question begs, how much of an advantage will Bedard give the Sox Tuesday night? Key match-ups: David DeJesus (6-24, 2 RBI), Yunel Escobar (8-15, 2 2B, RBI, 3 BB), Matt Joyce (6-18, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB), James Loney (4-16, 2B, HR, 3 RBI), Evan Longoria (10-31, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-5) Ben Zobrist (11-27, 3 2B, 4 RBI, 5 BB)
Felix Doubront: Simply put, Doubront is the weakest link in the Red Sox rotation, and the Rays will attempt to pounce. He’s put together a lofty 6.00 ERA, with opponents hitting .294 against him — including a .901 OPS for left-handers. What’s more, he’s thrown just 24 innings in his five start, leaving the pen with an incredible amount of stress. Finally, his LOB percentage is an atrocious 58.2%. Doubront could bode well for Tampa Bay. Key match-ups: Yunel Escobar (6-20, 2 BB), Desmond Jennings (4-16, 2B, 4 BB), Matt Joyce (1-3, BB), Evan Longoria (6-17, 3 2BB, 2 RBI, 4 BB), Jose Molina (1-4, BB), Wil Myers (3-8, 3 RBI, BB), Ben Zobrist (5-20, 2 RBI, 4 BB)
Jake Peavy: Peavy was very good in his previous start against Toronto, allowing just one run on five hits, walking two and striking out seven over seven innings of work. The Rays have been able to touch Peavy in the past, cranking four homers off the 31 year-old righty over in his last 20 innings of work against Tampa Bay. Key match-ups: Ryan Hanigan (1-3), James Loney (10-31, 5 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, BB), Wil Myers (1-2, RBI, BB), Sean Rodriguez (2-4), Ben Zobrist (4-13, 2 2B, HR, 2 RBI, BB)
Noteworthiness
- The Sox lead the series 162-116, and are 89-50 in Boston. However, the Rays are 22-15 in Fenway over the past four seasons.
- Boston won 12 of 19 regular-season meetings between the two last season, then won three of four in the ALDS. Boston won. Of the Rays’ 12 losses to Boston last year, six were decided from the ninth on — three on walkoffs.
- Tuesday night will be the team’s 1,000th game since changing from Devil Rays to Rays in 2008, with a 561-438 record after Monday.
- Will Middlebrooks, mixed bag. Middlebrooks has been back in the lineup for a couple of games and has gone 3-for-8 with a home run and a double. However, he has only one walk in that incredibly small sample size. Make quality pitches against this swing happy youngin.
- Telling stat: Rays starters have gone five innings or fewer in 10 of last 14 games.
I’ll write more shortly!