It’s up to debate whether the Rays would/could have eked out a 2-0 win against the White Sox Sunday — that is, assuming the five run, four error sixth inning, and the four run seventh never happened. For one thing, David Price sailed, efficiently, through the front five innings. And though the offense failed to tack on more than two runs — that is, when they had opportunities to do so in three other innings — they seemed in line for another one of their patented one or two run victories (see: the games on April 8, April 11, and April 12). Overall, they went 1-5 wRISP, stranding six men on the bags. Instead, they were embarrassed by the soft tossing, 29 year-old rookie (and the rest of the south-siders for that matter), falling 9-2.
Hell, even Fangraphs gave the Rays a 71.8% chance of winning with only one run up to the sixth inning. Go ahead, run your cursor over the graph, and watch as the odds of a Rays’ win plummeted from the sixth inning on.
Source: FanGraphs
One hiccup, a rare error by Ben Zobrist, turned into a defensive miscue. Then a two-run, two error play by David Price and Wil Myers (both throwing) on a bunt up the third base line preceded a two-run blast to deep left, by Jose Abreu. That then — stop me, oh oh oh stop me, stop me if you think that you’ve heard this one before — preceded another run scoring error, this time by Yunel Escobar. Previous to the sixth, Price threw only 69 pitches. The Rays ace tossed 31 pitches in that inning alone. The seventh inning wasn’t any better. Price and Josh Lueke combined for four runs on two hits and a walk.
If I may, the idea is to put a dependable pitcher on the mound in a high leverage situation — one you that you trust can, and will, mop up any mess the previous pitcher may have gotten himself into. I’d hardly qualify Josh Lueke as that pitcher. Lueke has now given up five hits (to eight batters) in medium and high leverage situations, while striking out only one. He’s okay in low leverage situations — batters have slashed .254 OBA/.310 OBP/.377 SLG/.303 OPS against the Rays’ righty. However, the quality of his outings plummet when the pressure is applied. Furthermore, with a .474 OBA/.500 OBP/.632 SLG/.488 OPS slash line with runners in scoring position, relinquishing six earned runs and striking out only two, I’d argue that Lueke is the last pitcher that should see time on the mound when the Rays are down by a manageable three or four runs, with runners on second or third.
The Rays put together the ugliest two-inning tandem I’ve ever seen. Moving Forward.
The New What Next
Tampa Bay will try it’s chances at a split series tonight, in the final game of this four game set. Jake Odorizzi will get the start against Andre Rienzo and the White Sox… That is, if the game even takes place — rain is expected. In any case, you can read about the pitching match-up, and oh so much more, in our series preview.
Rays 4/28/14 Starting Lineup
Zobrist 2B
Jennings CF
Joyce LF
Longoria 3B
Loney 1B
Myers RF
DeJesus DH
Escobar SS
Hanigan C
Odorizzi RHP
Noteworthiness
- If you didn’t already know, Mike Montgomery and Brad Boxberger threw a combined no-hitter for Durham last Saturday. Watch the video (below) of that no-no… Just make sure you turn down the volume — The music leaves a lot to be desired. If any of you caught the interview with Marc Topkin on WDAE this morning, you heard about the distinct possibility of Mike Montgomery, Nate Karns, or Enny Romero (in that order) joining the Rays if the Erik Bedard experiment continues to sputter, and ultimately fails.
- Tampa Bay has allowed nine-plus runs five times this season. They’re tied with Houston for the most such games in the AL.
- The Rays had the fewest number of errors in all of baseball, going into Sunday’s game, at seven. At four errors in the sixth, they set a franchise record for the most errors committed in one inning, previously three (set in 2007). An achievement of non-distinction if there ever was one.
- A shorter summary of the game? Hatfield of DRaysBay summed things up perfectly, “Between Price’s ineffectiveness, the mind-numbing defensive miscues, Josh Lueke being Josh Lueke and the quiet Rays bats against a career minor leaguer, there weren’t too many positives today. Not too many at all.”
- It’s well documented that Jake Odorizzi pitches well the first time through the order (allowing a .121 OBA), yet can’t quite make the proper adjustments the second and third times through allowing a .452 OBA). Marc Topkin writes that he’s working on the imperative to keep himself, and his team, in the game. “Just be more aggressive,” Odorizzi said. “I’m losing aggressiveness. I’m trying to make the perfect pitch and instead that puts me in a bad spot if I miss it. I’m trying to work on getting some early count outs and I’ve been having trouble getting them the last couple games, so that’s going to be my focus. Get some early count outs, put the ball in play, let the defense work, try not to do everything myself.”
- Jeremy Hellickson threw off the mound for the first time since arthroscopic elbow surgery Sunday — a step toward his projected early June return. “Hellickson, working out at the Trop,” writes Marc Topkin, “threw 20 pitches, all fastballs, and was said to feel good.”