BA and Dewayne Staats made a good point in last nights telecast: the over abundance of errors committed by the Rays this year is putting unnecessary stress on the pitching staff. In short, the errors are extending the starters innings and pitch counts. Extended innings inevitably force the Rays to rely on their relievers for more innings than they should, putting unnecessary stress on the pen.
I wanted to see how the errors might be effecting the starters, so I compared their 2011 and 2012 numbers. I looked at a few things to see if anything jumped out at me: the average number of innings pitched per game, the number of runs (earned or unearned) given up, the total number of pitches thrown, and the average number of pitches that Rays starters have thrown per start. I compared apples to apples, by looking at the first 11-12 starts of this season and the first 11-12 starts of last.
First, let’s take a look at a where the errors are coming from, and how many runs those errors are responsible for. Tampa Bay has committed 49 errors so far this season. Those 49 errors are directly responsible for 24 runs. 59% of those 49 errors have come from the left side of the infield (SS and 3B) and from behind the plate. 79% of the aforementioned errors have accounted for 19 of those 24 runs. That’s uh, really bad.
Now, let’s see what the numbers tell us about the effect that the runs have had on the pitchers.
A big indicator that the errors have plagued the starters, is the number of unearned runs the pitchers have given up. The Rays starters (not including Cobb) have given up a total of 146 runs, 26 of which being unearned. It bears mentioning that not every unearned run is is indicative of an error. However, there is a significant differential between earned and unearned runs this season over last.
Another indicator is the average number of innings that any given pitcher chews up per start. The average number of innings per start has fallen anywhere from a third of an inning to a whole inning for Shields, Hellickson, and Price. Niemann has, on average, gone deeper into games, and Moore doesn’t have a big enough sample size to compare to. The starters are also throwing a greater number of pitches, yet they’re not going as deeply into games. That Shields had already thrown three complete games at this point of last season, yet has only gone past the ninth one time this season is telling.
It would be easy to say that the starters aren’t as efficient this season. And to an extent, that would be true. However, the reasons why they’re not as efficient should also be taken into consideration. I’m hesitant to simplify things, by saying it’s one thing or another. But what’s glaringly obvious is the effect that errors are having on the team as a whole; from the inability to compensate for those errors offensively, to the stress that is applied to the pitching staff overall.