X-Rays Spex

A Below Average Rays Fan Blog

Rays finalize deal with platoon OF/DH Avisail Garcia

By Leave a Comment

The Rays finalized a one-year, $3.5-million (plus incentives) deal with OF Avisail Garcia on Friday.

On Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays finalized a one-year, $3.5-million (plus incentives) deal with OF Avisail Garcia. To make room on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay designated RHP Oliver Drake for the second time this offseason.

With the acquisition of Garcia, the Rays are thought to have completed the offensive construction of their roster with less than one month remaining until pitchers and catchers report to camp.

Tampa Bay has been in the market for a right-handed bat to pair with DH/1B Ji-Man Choi and Garcia fits that description to a large extent. The outfielder was plagued with knee and hamstring issues last season, limiting him to just 93 games in which he slashed a disappointing .236 BA/.281 OBP/.438 SLG/.719 OPS line over 385 plate appearances, with a -4 DRS in the outfield, leading to a modest 0.3 fWAR in spite of his power profile. In 2017, however, Garcia enjoyed a breakout campaign, performing to a .330 BA/.380 OBP/.506 SLG/.886 OPS line across 561 plate appearances, with 18 home runs, 80 RBI and a 4.6 fWAR.

The question begs: which Garcia are they getting? Let’s dig into that.

The known known: Avisail Garcia hits the ball hard.

Garcia has posted average exit velocities of 90.2 MPH, 90.3 MPH, and 90.2 MPH since 2016. Moreover, Garcia hit the ball +95 MPH on 43.2% of the balls he made contact with. His hard-hit rate finds him ranking 55th (2016), 22nd (2017), and 57th (2018) in all of Major League Baseball.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

He hits it how far?!

A post shared by Tampa Bay Rays (@raysbaseball) on

He not only has the ability to barrel up the balls, but his peripherals also suggest that he has lots of success on balls in play. Over the span of his career, Garcia has a 45.8% GB rate (over 50% since 2016 and just under at 48.6% last season). Jason Hanselman (The Process Report) wrote about Garcia’s ability to scorch the ball, especially vs. left-handed pitchers:

…all that incredibly hard contact even at those downward trajectories and he has seen a good deal of even the lower angles go for base hits solely due to how very hard he hits the ball. Hard contact is always the first step, and while many will think all he needs to do is lift the ball more, it doesn’t look like he actually has much success via that route other than when he’s pairing ideal angles with very hard contact. Something you could tell every player to do more often. Looking at lefties you can see how much of his production came on line drive like contact including many of his homers that were utterly scorched piss missiles clearing low walls. Like with Yandy Diaz, many would like to see more elevation leading to celebration, but it’s an approach that is already working. Unlike Diaz, Garcia’s inability to control the zone means he has no margin on this type of contact. If he isn’t hitting the ball hard then he’s not going to have the kind of success necessary for his role. Luckily, that looks like something you can project going forward.

Garcia has slashed .304 BA/.358 OBP/.457 SLG/.815 OPS/121 wRC+ against southpaws over his career, including a .279 BA/.333 OBP/.477 SLG/.780 OPS/119 wRC+ last season — one of the worst campaigns of his career.

Garcia is expected to play right field or DH against left-handed pitchers and compete for playing time against some right-handers.

Superlatives aside, Garcia saw his K% balloon from 19.8% in 2017 to 26.5% just one season later. Meanwhile, his BB% has been in a steady decline since 2016. Meanwhile, his launch angle increased from 5.4% in 2016 to 9.7% last season, and he began to pull the ball more than ever before (43.6% in 2018). Garcia attributed all of this to an injury-marred campaign 2018 campaign.

I had been feeling something, something, something (in my knee) and then I started feeling my hammy because I think I was (favoring it), Garcia told Manny Randhawa (MLB.com). Especially because it’s my right knee, and that’s where all my power is.

The outfielder ultimately underwent the knife to surgically repair his knee in October, which Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about on Saturday.

…with his hamstring healed, his knee surgically repaired in early October and the resulting bad habits eradicated from his swing, Garcia is confident he can return to his old form with his new Rays team.

“One hundred percent, Garcia said Friday night,” after his deal for $3.5 million, plus up to $2.5 million of plate-appearance based incentives, was finalized. “For sure. I know what I can do. I know my swing. I’ve just got to be healthy and ready to go. And that’s how I am right now.”

Garcia has been “working on hitting more to right-center,” writes Topkin.

His outfield play has gotten mixed reviews, which Darby Robinson (DRaysBay) wrote about below, although he has a strong arm.

At first glance, Garcia seems like somebody who isn’t a very good defender. I’ve seen that written in comments and tweets so far.

But is he?

DRS sure doesn’t look very kindly on him; however, Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric paints a different picture.

In 2018, Avisail Garcia was worth 4 Outs Above Average, which is more than Kevin Pillar (2) and Mallex Smith (-2) to put into some perspective. By this metric, his past few years he’s ranked 33rd (2018), 76th (2017), and 67th (2016).

Garcia is also faster than he might appear with his 6’4” 240 LB frame. He has a sprint speed (ft/second) of 29.0 f/s, where a sprint speed of 30 f/s is considered Elite. Again, for some perspective, Garcia’s 29.0 ranks equal to Dee Gordon (29.0) and slightly ahead of Kevin Kiermaier (28.9).

Avisail Garcia does not seem like a terrible outfielder. He isn’t going to dazzle like Pham and KK in the field, but Garcia has the versatility and ability to fill in nicely in the corners. With the injury histories of Kiermaier, Pham, and Meadows, it’s useful to have contingency plans in place.

Garcia might not be Nelson Cruz, yet he is a solid buy-low on an above average hitter who fits the team’s needs and he seems like a worthy gamble. If he can overcome his injury derailed 2018 campaign, the $3.5-million acquisition will be justified. If, on the other hand, Garcia puts together a season like Carlos Gomez, his predecessor, the budget conscious Rays could always peruse the other options ready and willing to run with the opportunity, given the chance.

Noteworthiness

— Topkin writes that the most glaring need for the Rays is a veteran closer.

As much as the Rays like Alvarado, Castillo and Roe and want to give them chances, they could benefit from someone with some “been there, done that” experience. They should be able to wait out the market, with opportunity a part of their pitch. Then again, with Cody Allen getting $8.5 million, plus $2.5 million in incentives, from Anaheim coming off a bad year, there may not be any bargains to be had.

— Catcher Mike Zunino was ranked ninth on MLB Network’s annual Top 10 Catchers Right Now!, finishing one spot ahead of the Kansas City Royals’ Salvador Pérez and one spot behind the New York Mets’ Wilson Ramos. Joey Wendle was previously ranked seventh on Top 10 Second Basemen Right Now! last week.

The complete ranking for MLB Network’s top-10 catchers is listed below:

1. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
2. J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins
3. Yasmani Grandal, Milwaukee Brewers
4. Gary Sánchez, New York Yankees
5. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
6. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
7. Kurt Suzuki, Washington Nationals
8. Wilson Ramos, New York Mets
9. Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays
10. Salvador Pérez, Kansas City Royals

Rays to sign Avisail Garcia; interested in Matt Davidson

By Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays reportedly came to a one-year agreement with outfielder Avisail Garcia on Monday.

The Tampa Bay Rays dipped into the offseason free-agent market on Monday, reportedly coming to terms with outfielder Avisail Garcia on a one-year, $3.5-million deal. The deal is pending a physical and includes an addition $2.5-million in incentives.

The Rays have been in the market for a right-handed bat to pair with DH/1B Ji-Man Choi and Garcia fits that description to a large extent. The outfielder was plagued with knee and hamstring issues last season, limiting him to just 93 games in which he slashed a disappointing .236 BA/.281 OBP/.438 SLG/.719 OPS line over 385 plate appearances, with a -4 DRS in the outfield, leading to a modest 0.3 fWAR in spite of his power profile. In 2017, however, Garcia enjoyed a breakout campaign, performing to a .330 BA/.380 OBP/.506 SLG/.886 OPS line across 561 plate appearances, with 18 home runs, 80 RBI and a 4.6 fWAR.

Aside from the fact that Garcia is a low-risk, low-cost player, it is difficult to know what to make of him. He was clearly the recipient of the good luck dragons in 2017, posting a .392 BABIP which was an anomaly when compared to his career numbers. As Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors) writes, Garcia largely defied the odds.

Garcia struck out at a career-low 19.8 percent clip that season, but he also hit the ball on the ground at a 52.2 percent clip — hardly a trend that is conducive to success for a plodding player who is listed at 6’4″ and 240 pounds.

True to projections, Garcia regressed in 2018, although there are some silver linings, which Adams also noted.

Garcia hit the ball in the air at a career-high 34.4 percent rate, resulting in a clear power surge. Despite having just 385 PAs last season, he clubbed a career-high 19 home runs, and his .202 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was easily a career-high mark as well. Moreover, Garcia’s hard-hit rate jumped from 40.7 percent in 2017 to 43.2 percent in 2018, per Statcast. At the same time, though, Garcia also punched out in a career-worst 26.5 percent of his plate appearances.

The Rays have a crowded outfield chock full of strong defenders like Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows who are slated to receive the bulk of the regular work. This suggests that Garcia will likely see more time at DH and play in the outfield corners only sparingly.

If Garcia can cut back on his strikeouts, while maintaining his hard-contact and fly-ball gains, he could prove to be a cheap source of power next season.

Noteworthiness

— In a tweet, Saturday Ken Rosenthal (The Athletic) noted Tampa Bay’s interest in free-agent corner infielder Matt Davidson as a potential two-way player.

Davidson is most known for his offensive prowess. The former top-100 prospect combined for 46 homers with the ChiSox between 2017 and 2018, during which he slashed .224 BA/.291 OBP/.345 SLG/.636 OPS/94 wRC+ across 939 plate appearances. He did fare better last season, posting a 104 wRC+ across 496 PAs and walking a career-high 10.5% (up from 4.3% the season previous), with a .228 BA/.319 OBP/.419 SLG/.738 OPS/.321 wOBA/104 wRC+.

More interestingly though, Davidson factored into Chicago’s bullpen, tossing 3-1/3 innings of one-hit ball in three appearances from June through August.

Davidson has reportedly worked to become a better option on out of the ‘pen since the end of the season, and the White Sox liked what they saw out of the right-hander’s 92 mph fastball. He also displayed a nasty breaking ball, which he used to strike out Rougned Odor and Giancarlo Stanton (seen above). Even so, Chicago chose not to tender Davidson’s projected $2.4-million contract via arbitration.

Davidson’s likely purpose would be to platoon first base with Ji-Man Choi, the projected starter at the position. The left-handed Choi logged tremendous production last season in 221 plate appearances, slashing .280 BA/.372 OBP/.536 SLG/.908 OPS/146 wRC+ with nine homers, 22 runs, 23 RBI and a .256 ISO. Yet Choi played sparingly left-handed pitchers, while Davidson destroyed southpaws, suggesting a platoon at first.

Rays come to terms with Zunino, Duffy, and Roe; Pham headed to arbitration

By Leave a Comment

Three out of four ain’t bad. The Rays came to terms with all of their arbitration-eligible players but Tommy Pham on Friday.

The arbitration deadline passed on Friday, as the Tampa Bay Rays were able to agree to terms with three of their four eligible players: Mike Zunino, Matt Duffy, and Chaz Roe. The Rays, however, were unable to come to terms with outfielder Tommy Pham. The two sides will now go to an arbitration case, on an unspecified date, in February.

Zunino, who was acquired in the trade for Mallex Smith with Seattle, is entering his second year of arbitration eligibility. The catcher was projected to earn $4.2-million in 2019, according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Also in his second year of arbitration eligibility, Duffy was projected to earn $2.6-million. Roe — who is entering arbitration eligibility for the first time — was projected to earn $1.4-million.

Pham, who boasted a .343 BA/.448 OBP/.622 SLG/1.070 slash line across 39 games with the Rays (while performing to an overall 4.0 fWAR) after he was acquired from the St. Louis at last season’s non-waiver trade deadline, earned $570,100 in 2018 as a pre-arbitration eligible player. The outfielder turned down a two-year deal from the Cardinals and reportedly wasn’t happy with the figures he was being offered for the season, but eventually signed in order to play, writes Adam Sanford (DRaysBay).

Pham had not been shy about his treatment by the Cardinals’ front office during his time with St. Louis. He, most recently, made headlines for criticizing the Rays’ fanbase support — or lack thereof — in an interview with SiriusXM on December 27, saying the team has “really no fan base at all.”

It isn’t yet known how far apart the two sides are.

Noteworthiness

— Per Steve Adams (MLB Trade Rumors), the Rays are one of six teams still in on catcher J.T. Realmuto. It, however, appears the Dodgers may be (the) most motivated to land the backstop.

— Consider this our annual open call for writers and contributors to X-Rays Spex! Do you have writing chops that, in the very least, can be honed, a love of the Rays, and an urge to geek out on a new hobby? Are you familiar with WordPress, or open to learning how to use this incredibly simple platform? If you answered yes to those questions, then please get in touch with a sample of your writing at belowaverageraysfansite@gmail.com.

Rays re-acquire Oliver Drake; designate Jamie Schultz for assignment

By Leave a Comment

The Rays re-acquired right-hander Oliver Drake from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations on Friday.

The Tampa Bay Rays announced that they re-acquired right-hander Oliver Drake from the Toronto Blue Jays for cash considerations on Friday.

The Rays initially claimed Drake off waivers in November, yet designated him for assignment a couple of weeks later. Meanwhile, after being claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays, Toronto designated Drake for assignment last week in order to open a spot on the roster for southpaw Clayton Richard. In order to open a spot for Drake on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay announced that right-hander Jaime Schultz has been designated for assignment.

Drake, 31, hasn’t had much success in his brief big league career, however, there are reasons to believe he could succeed in the near future. The right-hander has been rather unlucky over the past couple of seasons, having been staked to a .353 BABIP, albeit with an exceptional 47% swinging strike percentage. Drake worked to a 2.21 ERA with an impressive 3.3 K/BB ratio and a 50% ground-ball rate across 20-1/3 innings with the Twins — the only team with which he found real success.

Drake also saw MLB action with four other teams in 2018 (Blue Jays, Angels, Indians, Brewers), and he’s seen time with six Major League clubs over the past two seasons. Drake is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to break camp with Tampa Bay (or another club) next spring or else be exposed to waivers yet again.

Schultz, 27, was once considered one of Tampa Bay’s most promising MiLB arms. However, he struggled to a 5.64 ERA in 30-1/3 innings last season. Even though he racked up 35 strikeouts in the time, struggled mightily with command, issuing 17 walks and hit three batters. The right-hander also underperformed in Durham last season and hasn’t been able to consistently avoid a bloated walk rate in the upper minors.

Rays to reduce seating capacity at Tropicana Field; announce stadium improvements

By Leave a Comment

The Tampa Bay Rays will further shrink the capacity of Tropicana Field ahead of the 2019 season.

Less than a month after the Tampa Bay Rays made it known they would abandon their plans to build a stadium in Ybor City, the team announced its intent to reduce the seating at Tropicana Field to about 25,000 to 26,000 under a renovation plan aimed at improving fans’ experience.

In a statement, Rays President Matt Silverman said the plan would create a more “intimate” atmosphere.

These renovations mark our continued commitment to providing a first-rate fan experience at Tropicana Field. Together, in concert with the reduction in seating capacity, these investments will help create a more intimate, entertaining and appealing experience for our fans.

The team also announced plans to create more social gathering spaces with the creation of the Left Field Ledge, which will include premium seating for small groups, a full-service bar, ledge tables, and seated drink rails, as well as the elimination of the upper-deck 300 level.

Here’s a full look at the renovations planned for the Trop this season:

  • Offering more social gathering spaces with the creation of a new common area, the Left Field Ledge.
  • Redesigning and enhancing two primary fan entrances (Gate 4 and 5) to improve the flow of fans through increased access points and wayfinding features.
  • Exchanging the current turf for a new Shaw Sports Turf product, designed to withstand the myriad events held at Tropicana Field throughout the year.
  • Adding access from the Budweiser Porch and Ballpark & Rec areas to the Outfielder bar behind center field, as well as creating an external entrance to the food and beverage space.
  • Redoubling the organization’s commitment to sustainable energy practices by replacing the existing field lights with energy-efficient LED lights, improving overall on-field playability and entertainment lighting throughout the ballpark.
  • Elimination of the upper deck, which reconfigures the ballpark seating areas to include the first, mezzanine and second seating levels, as well as the new GTE Financial Party Deck. This will bring all fans closer to the field of play.

This marks the second consecutive year that the Trop has undergone renovations. Prior to the start of the 2018 season, the team created new concession concepts that reflected the surrounding community, while also renovating the team store, theRays Republic.

According to a team press release, the Rays have invested more than $50-million in Tropicana Field renovations since 2005, including more than $15-million in the last two years.

Noteworthiness

— One cannot help but wonder if this is a step toward a complete overhaul of Tropicana Field, which would be far cheaper than building a new facility? There is nothing structurally wrong with the stadium, which begs the question, might the team eventually propose a massive renovation of the stadium, something similar to the design of the $892-million proposed facility in Ybor City?

According to the terms of their use agreement, the Rays stand to collect 50% of the development rights at the Tropicana Field site should the team stay put, which includes the construction of a new facility on the Trop’s 86 acres.

— On a related note, St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman spoke with Janelle Irwin Taylor (WMNF) on the potential for a light rail system that would connect the proposed Brightline-Virgin Rail Service station in downtown Tampa to the Tropicana Field site, among other things.