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The New What Next: Rays vs Twins — a series preview

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The Rays head home for a three-game home stand, starting Monday. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays return home from a 5-4 road trip (but also a series loss to the worst team in the American League) on Monday, where they will face their biggest challenge of the season — the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are coming off a two-game series loss, yet one with a +15 run differential, thanks to a 17-0 shutout of the Royals on Saturday.

(Stats: ESPN)

After a rough and less-than-inspiring weekend, the Rays have reached the point where it’s time to — if I may — put up or shut up. It’s crunch time … a sink or swim moment … abandonar a su suerte.

The Twins are the surprising leaders in the race for the second AL Wildcard spot, and as it was written elsewhere, this series will be the point of demarcation for the Rays.

They still see themselves in the thick of things in spite of the fact that they trail Minnesota by four games, while their chances of a postseason berth, per FanGraphs, are down to 6.3% as of Monday.

I’m not going to lie, I wouldn’t have thought the Twins were going to be the biggest series of our season in September, but they are, Alex Cobb told the Tampa Bay Times. That really kind of is our season in a series.

If the Rays have any plausible playoff aspirations, they have got to break out of this rut that keeps them from making up the ground they lost after the Rays dropped 12 of 15. Even more challenging, they are slated to face contenders with winning records over the final 24 games of the season.

Cobb continued,

I get that the chances mathematically, whatever the computer program puts out, only has us at a low percentage. “But when we look at those standings and we see the teams in front of us, we really feel like there’s no way that we shouldn’t be in that playoff scenario. We feel like we have a good enough ballclub to at least be in there.

Tampa Bay relished these kinds of opportunities under the tutelage of former manager Joe Maddon. The question begs, do the Rays still have the verve and cool needed to weather this storm?

Tampa Bay took 2-of-3 from Minnesota in their previous meeting this season.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

The Rays have played much better of late, however, so have the Twins. They’ve gone on a 21-12 streak since the trade deadline, with a +72 run differential, thanks to solid defense, timely hitting and a pretty good pitching staff. And while Tampa Bay’s hurlers have pitched well of late, so has Minnesota, which has bested the Rays … at least over the last 14 days.

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will throw Alex Cobb (9-9, 3.72 ERA, 4.26 FIP), Jake Odorizzi (7-7, 4.85 ERA, 5.97 FIP), and Blake Snell (3-6, 4.02 ERA, 4.37 FIP). Paul Molitor will counter with Jose Berrios (12-6, 3.80 ERA, 3.81 FIP), Bartolo Colon (4-2, 4.09 ERA, 5.08 FIP), and Aaron Slegers (0-0, 2.84 ERA, 5.19 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Cobb went six innings and allowed three runs in his last start against the Royals. He struck out six. The right-hander allowed a run over five innings against the Twins in May — a 15-inning affair resulting in a Rays win.

Berrios tied a career high with 11 strikeouts against the ChiSox in his last start, tossing seven scoreless innings while scattering four hits. His last six starts, however, have been a mixed bag, as he has allowed one run or fewer in three starts, but five or more in the other three. Berrios did not face the Rays earlier this season. The right-hander has relied primarily on a whiffy 94mph four-seam fastball, a hard 82mph curveball with slight glove-side movement, and a 93mph sinker with slight armside run. He also has mixed in a fly-ball inducing 84mph changeup.

Odorizzi allowed three runs over five innings while notching a win against over KC in his last start. He, however, has struggled to pitch deeply into games as of late, tossing at least six innings in just one of his last six starts. On the bright side, all of the Royals’ runs came on one swing — a three-run homer by Whit Merrifield in the third inning. More concerning though, his the lack of command, paired with the inability to keep the ball in the park, has plagued Odorizzi this season. In his last 10 outings, the right-hander has given up 34 runs in 48 innings — good for a 6.38 ERA.

Colon gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision against Chicago his last time out. He was solid over the month of August, performing to a 3.40 ERA over six starts, yet he wasn’t nearly as good over the first half of the season, performing to a 8.14 ERA/5.07 FIP over 63 innings of work. Colon is 9-6 with a 4.07 ERA in 24 career starts against the Rays. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (5-15, 2B, 3B, RBI, 2 BB), Corey Dickerson (3-3, 3B, RBI), Lucas Duda (1-4), Adeiny Hechavarria (4-13, 3 2B, RBI), Evan Longoria (5-14, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 3 BB), Mallex Smith (1-4)

Snell pitched well in his last start, tossing 6-2/3 innings of one-run ball on an efficient 85 pitches. At times he worked ahead of batters, and at others he fell behind. However, he did a good job to battle and get back into those at-bats. Snell took advantage of an aggressive White Sox lineup, although he wasn’t dominant per se. In all fairness, the southpaw was helped in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings by ground ball double plays — each of which was started by Adeiny Hechavarria.

Slegers will be recalled from Triple-A Rochester to make his second big league start. The right-hander struck out 10 batters in each of his last two outings in the Minors.

The scouting report on Slegers (per Puckett’s Pond):

Fastball (55) – Slegers will work typically around the 90 MPH mark with his fastball, usually working 90-92, touching 94. What makes his fastball effective is the plane he gets from his 6’10” height and the tremendous late vertical movement he gets on the pitch, with a bit of arm side sink. When he “dips” to a traditional 3/4 arm slot, he can get a touch of cut on his fastball as it moves in on lefty hitters.

Change Up (50) – Slegers does not get the same sort of movement on his change as he does on his fastball, which does make the pitch easier to distinguish, but he has excellent arm deception on the pitch. If he struggles in location on a pitch, it seems as if this is the pitch he struggles most on, however, and the more “straight” movement on the pitch allows the ball to get driven hard.

Slider (45) – Many guys get a “sweeping” slider from a tall angle, but Slegers typically has more of a slurvy slider that has a short horizontal break as well as vertical break. While the pitch would be an excellent ground ball pitch in the lower third of the zone, he seems to get better break on the pitch when he works the ball roughly thigh-high to belt-high. Slegers also can get more of a sweeping movement to lefties by “dipping” to a traditional 3/4 arm slot. The fact that the pitch’s movement is fairly gradual and not exceptionally sharp is what keeps the pitch from rating higher.

Noteworthiness

— The Rays designated LHP Adam Kolarek for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot following Sunday’s 6-2 loss, and are expected to add INF Trevor Plouffe back to the roster on Monday.

— It bears mentioning:

LBWMF: Tampa Bay Rays hold on to defeat the ChiSox, 3-1

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The Rays kicked off the month of September with a 3-1 win. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays scored three early runs on Friday, thanks to the tandem of Logan Morrison and Kevin Kiermaier, while Blake Snell put together another solid start. The Rays held on for a 3-1 win over the ChiSox, and got back to the .500 mark for the 21st time this season.

Morrison helped put the Rays on the board, and get off to a good start. Three batters after Kiermaier led off the game with a line drive single into center, the first baseman blasted a two-out two-run homer to right-center off Reynaldo Lopez.

The homer came on the fifth pitch of the at-bat — an elevated 84 mph changeup on the outer edge of the plate. Morrison somehow turned on the pitch, and sent it out of the confines of Comisky Park (or whatever it’s called now) for his 34th home run of the season (his fifth in as many games).

The White Sox answered in the second inning though, after Kevan Smith doubled then came around to score on a two-out throwing error from Morrison to Blake Snell, who was covering first. Leury Garcia charged out of the box as Morrison yanked his throw past first, allowing the run to score all the way from second. The Rays were able to retake a two-run margin a half an inning later.

Kiermaier, Evan Longoria and Morrison all singled — sandwiched around a Lucas Duda foul-out — with the final hit pushing the advantage to 3-1. From there, Lopez and Chicago’s bullpen kept the wolves at bay. Only two Rays reached  on a walk and a hit — Morrison’s third of the game — after the third inning.

Meanwhile Snell also pitched well. At times he worked ahead of batters, while at others he fell behind. He, however, did a good job to battle and get back into those at-bats. Snell took advantage of an aggressive White Sox lineup, although he wasn’t dominant per se. In all fairness, the southpaw was helped in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings by ground ball double plays — each of which was started by Adeiny Hechavarria.

Yet Snell still tossed 6-2/3 innings on an efficient 85 pitches, and was able to hand the ball to three relievers that combined to shut down Chicago.

The south siders had one last shot to overtake the Rays in the seventh inning. With two out and none on, Snell was lifted after a two-out walk Garcia. Steve Cishek, who still has not allowed a run with Tampa Bay, wild pitched Garcia to second, then walked Adam Engel. As if the moment couldn’t get any more tense, Cishek allowed a hit to right to Yolmer Sanchez, who pulled a first pitch fastball into right-field to load the bases. But even though Tim Anderson smoked a liner to short, he did so right at Hechavarria to end the inning.

After that, the White Sox did not have another batter reach.

Tommy Hunter posted a perfect eighth, while Alex Colome did the same in the ninth for his MLB-leading 41st save … of course with a requisite three wild pitches in three at-bats.

The New What Next

Chris Archer (9-7, 3.66 ERA, 3.17 FIP) will take the mound for the Rays in the second game of the series, pitching opposite of Carlos Rodon (2-5, 4.27 ERA, 4.74 FIP).

Archer limited the Cardinals to one run on five hits over seven innings on Sunday. The only blemish on the right-hander’s ledger was a seventh-inning home run by Kolten Wong. Part of his recent spate of dominance has to do with the fact that Archer is walking fewer batters and striking more of them out, posting a 69/9 K/BB in his last 50-1/3 innings of work over his past seven starts. He is 2-0, but with a 5.40 ERA in four games (three starts) on the south side of Chicago, and 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts against the White Sox.

Rodon gave up five runs on seven hits over five innings against Detroit in his last turn, his shortest start since July 25. The southpaw held the Tigers scoreless over the first two frames before allowing all five of his runs over the next two, leading to his fifth loss of the season. The outing snapped a string of five consecutive starts in which he had allowed two earned runs or fewer, although it’s difficult for him to pick up any wins with the White Sox offense. This season he has relied upon a whiffy 94mph four-seam fastball, a hard 85 mph slider, and a 93mph sinker, while also mixing in an 83mph changeup with natural sinking action. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-3, 2B, HR, RBI)

You can read about the series in our preview.

Rays 9/2/17 Starting Lineup

Kiermaier CF
Souza DH
Longoria 3B
Morrison 1B
Puello LF
Bourjos RF
Hechavarria SS
Sucre C
Espinosa 2B
Archer RHP

Noteworthiness

— INF Taylor Featherston, designated for assignment by the Rays on Monday, cleared waivers and was outrighted back to Triple-A Durham.

The New What Next: Rays vs White Sox — a series preview

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The Rays have gone 4-2 thus far on their nine-game road trip. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays return to action Friday night in Chicago, where they’ll square off with the White Sox in a three-game weekend series. The Rays are coming off a pair of mid-western series wins against the Cardinals and Royals (respectively), while the White Sox dropped three straight to the Minnesota Twins.

(Stats: ESPN)

Tampa Bay just took two of three games from the Royals, after taking two of three in St Louis. They are now 7-3 over their last 10 games, while averaging 5.22 runs per game over that stretch. They still have their sights set firmly on a Wildcard berth, having moved to within 3-1/2 games of Minnesota for the last playoff spot, as well as four games behind the slumping Yankees, who will be taking on the Red Sox over the weekend.

The Rays have a excellent shot at closing that gap even more this weekend, not to mention a chance to move above the .500 mark for the first time since August 11. And while their offense has been an issue at times for Tampa Bay, they’ll be taking on a far weaker White Sox team. Dare I say they could primed to make a run* at things on the south side of the windy city?

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Over the next three days Kevin Cash will lean on Blake Snell (2-6, 4.29 ERA, 4.44 FIP), Chris Archer (9-7, 3.66 ERA, 3.17 FIP), and Matt Andriese (5-1, 3.54 ERA, 4.64 FIP). Rick Renteria will counter with Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 6.97 ERA, 6.61 FIP), Carlos Rodon (2-5, 4.27 ERA, 4.74 FIP), and Lucas Giolito (1-1, 2.77 ERA, 6.05 FIP).

(Stats: FanGraphs)

Pitching Matchups

Snell is coming off one of his best outings of the season, as he allowed just two runs on four hits over seven innings. He struck out seven. The southpaw has thrown six or more innings in four consecutive starts, and though his season numbers are still unsightly, Snell appears to have figured some things out in the second half, performing to a 3.66 ERA/3.69 FIP.

Lopez had been on the disabled list with a back strain since mid-August. Prior to the injury, Lopez made two starts but allowed eight runs on nine hits over 10-1/3 innings. The 23 year-old right-hander — who this season has relied upon a 95mph four-seam fastball with natural sinking action, and a whiffy 85mph changeup, while also mixing in an 81mph 12-6 curveball with little depth — has never faced the Rays.

Archer limited the Cardinals to one run on five hits over seven innings on Sunday. The only blemish on the right-hander’s ledger was a seventh-inning home run by Kolten Wong. Part of his recent spate of dominance has to do with the fact that Archer is walking fewer batters and striking more of them out, posting a 69/9 K/BB in his last 50-1/3 innings of work over his past seven starts. He is 2-0, but with a 5.40 ERA in four games (three starts) on the south side of Chicago, and 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in six starts against the White Sox.

Rodon gave up five runs on seven hits over five innings against Detroit in his last turn, his shortest start since July 25. The southpaw held the Tigers scoreless over the first two frames before allowing all five of his runs over the next two, leading to his fifth loss of the season. The outing snapped a string of five consecutive starts in which he had allowed two earned runs or fewer, although it’s difficult for him to pick up any wins with the White Sox offense. This season he has relied upon a whiffy 94mph four-seam fastball, a hard 85 mph slider, and a 93mph sinker, while also mixing in an 83mph changeup with natural sinking action. Key Matchups: Peter Bourjos (1-3, 2B), Evan Longoria (2-3, 2B, HR, RBI)

Andriese pitched the final three innings of the Rays’ win over the Royals on Monday to earn a save. He will be making his first start since June 10. Andriese is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one start (5-2/3 IP) against the White Sox.

Giolito tossed a gem in his second start with the south siders, throwing seven scoreless innings and allowing just three hits in a win over Detroit. Despite recording 12 swinging strikes, he collected just four strikeouts. Beware of the luck dragons! Over his two starts Giolito has performed to a .171 BABIP with a 100% LOB, but a 6.05 FIP. That is, he has been incredibly lucky. The righty has relied primarily upon a 93mph four-seam fastball this season, while also mixing in a 79mph 12-6 curveball, an 82mph cut-action changeup, a whiffy 92mph sinker, and an 85mph slider.

*  … Cough, sweep them.

Noteworthiness

— Alright kiddos, it’s make or break time!

— Something to ponder: Over the second half, the Rays bullpen has performed to a 3.27 ERA/4.10 FIP over 140-1/3 combined innings. The White Sox? 5.28 ERA/5.88 FIP over 150 innings. If Tampa Bay cannot feast on Chicago’s starters, there’s a fairly good chance the team will have a shot of breaking things open against the ‘pen. #SweepThem

— Reinforcements are on the way. Tampa Bay’s initial call-ups, with rosters expanding on Friday, are slated to be LHP Adam Kolarek and RHP Ryne Stanek, and C Curt Casali.

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about the call-ups, as well as the prospective additions expected later in the month.

Kolarek made his big-league debut, at age 28, in late June and stuck around for a month, posting a 5.87 ERA in 11 games. He has been impressive at Triple-A Durham, with a 1.65 ERA in 41 games. Adding Kolarek gives the Rays a second lefty in their bullpen and more freedom in how they use top option Dan Jennings.

Stanek, the hard-throwing, long-haired 2013 first-round pick, made his debut this season and in two stints with the Rays posted a 6.39 ERA over 13 games. But he has been dominant at Durham, allowing two earned runs in his past 23 outings and a 1.21 ERA overall with eight saves in 37 games. He gives the Rays a high-velocity option with the ability to work multiple innings if needed.

Casali played parts of 2014-16 with the Rays, hitting a combined .195 with 18 homers and a .658 OPS. He has spent all 2017 with Durham, hitting .263 with five homers, 48 RBIs and a .698 OPS in 85 games. He isn’t likely to get much playing time but gives manager Kevin Cash more freedom to pinch-hit or pinch-run for the other catchers.

Additional callups are expected later in the month, as Durham wraps regular season play Monday then advances to the playoffs. OF Mallex Smith, INFs Trevor Plouffe and Daniel Robertson and additional pitchers, such as LHP Jose Alvaradoand RHPs Diego Castillo, Jaime Schultz and Chase Whitley, seem likely candidates.

— The Rays continued their waiver wire talks into Thursday night, but they did not make any waiver claim trades — either to add to or subtract from the roster — in advance of the midnight deadline for postseason eligibility.

LBWMF: Rays beat Royals, 5-3, and win third consecutive series

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Meatloaf at Kauffman Stadium, for the Rays’ first series win in Kansas City since July 2009. (Photo Credit: Tampa Bay Rays)

The Tampa Bay Rays took two multi-run leads in Kansas City on Wednesday, then held on to beat the Royals, 5-3, for their first series win at Kauffman Stadium since 2009. The Rays ended the night one game under .500 (67-68) and having won both series on their current road trip, thus remaining relevant in the Wildcard chase with 27 left to play. They now are 15-3 in series wins when they’ve won the first game of a series (83.3% winning percentage).

Tampa Bay took a 3-0 lead in the third against Jason Vargas, a pitcher that’s had his way with the Rays in recent years. Adeiny Hechavarria got the rally started with a solo-homer to left-center field with one out.

It was Hechavarria’s fourth homer with the Rays and fifth overall.

Peter Bourjos followed by working a free pass, then went to third on Kevin Kiermaier’s single to center. Following suit, Steven Souza Jr. also singled up the middle — making it a two-run game — with the Outlaw moving up to third. Evan Longoria capped the scoring with his MLB leading 11th sacrifice fly.

Yet Kansas City immediately answered against Jake Odorizzi, who had been spotty all night. Odorizzi started the inning with a walk to the number eight hitter, Cheslor Cuthbert, before Alcides Escobar reached on a beautifully placed bunt single on the left side of the infield. Two pitches later, Odorizzi did what he has done all season — give up a home run, this time to Whit Merrifield, tying the game.

Although he would ultimately leave the game early, Odorizzi tightened up and retired six of the next seven batters.

Tampa Bay moved back in front in the fifth inning on homers by Souza (No. 29) and Logan Morrison (No. 33), putting the Rays ahead 5-3.

Morrison now has four homers in as many games.

Odorizzi was relieved of his start in the sixth inning after he allowed a leadoff single to Melky Cabrera — the absolute right call by Kevin Cash, who managed the game as though it was critical to the Rays short-term future … which it was. Odo was credited with the win, his first since July, after he allowed four hits and three walks over five plus innings. The right-hander fanned three.

From there the A bullpen took control.

Steve Cishek entered the game and retired the next three batters, two by strikeout, to end the frame. Cishek took the mound the following inning and pitched a perfect seventh. The right-hander now has a sub 1.15 ERA since May, a sub 2.00 ERA overall, and hasn’t allowed an earned run since the late July acquisition which sent Erasmo Ramirez to Seattle.

Cishek said the secret to his success is keeping it simple:

Tommy Hunter took over in the eighth and notched a perfect eight pitch frame, all on three ground outs.

Finally, Alex Colome worked around a one-out single in the ninth inning and fanned the side for his 40th save. El Caballo became the sixth player in franchise history to reach that milestone in a single season.

After an off-day Thursday, the Rays will head to the south side of Chicago for a three-game series against the basement dwelling White Sox. The ball club maintains they are just a hot streak away from taking over the reins in the Wildcard race … and in an ideal world, the previous series win against the Royals should be a springboard for that. However, the question begs: Do the Rays become ‘sellers’ at the waiver wire deadline at midnight Thursday?

Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) wrote about that very subject on the Heater blog, saying:

Meanwhile, Rays officials may not wait, deciding — and, crazy as it sounds, maybe even factoring in Wednesday’s result as a tipping point — whether to sell off any of the pending free agents who were either claimed on waivers this week or, less likely, cleared waivers, in advance of tonight’s midnight deadline for postseason eligibility.

… Cobb is in his own category, given his importance to the team, and any deal would not only be accompanied by a white flag of surrender but also prompt a major mutiny in the clubhouse.

Beyond Cobb, first baseman/DH Lucas Duda and reliever Steve Cishek would present the two most interesting decisions for the Rays from a group that also includes relievers Tommy Hunter and Sergio Romo, first baseman Logan Morrison and outfielder Peter Bourjos.

With all this in mind, we could see a team depleted of talent when it starts the series Friday in the Windy City, or one with a bolstered roster because of September call-ups and/or waiver wire acquisitions.

Houston Astros games likely to be moved to the Trop

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4:20 Update: The Astros indeed will come to town to face the Rangers, starting Tuesday and running through Thursday.

Per Marc Topkin, tickets would be $10 (open seating) with an option to donate $5 more to the Hurricane Harvey relief fund. The game times look to be 7:10 Tuesday and Wednesday, and 1:10 on Thursday.

Scheduled to play a three-game sets in the Magnolia City, yet effected by the floods in the surrounding region, Major League Baseball has floated the idea of moving Houston’s upcoming series against the Rangers to Tropicana Field this week while the Rays are out of town.

Per Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times), MLB officials have inquired about the availability of Tropicana Field as a neutral-site venue for the three-game series, which is slated to start Tuesday. The Rays have said they are ready to help if needed.

It’s also possible that the two rival ball clubs could instead shift the series to Arlington, home of the Rangers. However, as Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports) opined that option is unlikely given that it would be difficult for Rangers and Astros fans with tickets already.

A decision is expected later today, and any details — game times, ticket prices, etc — will be worked out and announced prior to the start of the series.

Should flood waters not recede in time for the upcoming series that follows against the Mets, Tropicana Field will be made available for that series as well. If both series were to be moved out of Houston, the Astros would end up on an 18-game road trip — away from their families currently dealing with the damage and flooding associated with the storm.

We will post any updates pending detailed confirmations.