After dropping two of three to the Cardinals, the Tampa Bay Rays look to rebound against the Guardians when they open a three-game set on Friday. Cleveland is coming off a series split with the Blue Jays.
At 69-48 on the season, the Rays enter play 21 games over .500 with 45 games left to play.
Suffice it to say, Tampa Bay dropped a winnable series against the Cardinals. Rays’ hurlers couldn’t keep the ball in the park, while the offense couldn’t get much to anything started in the final two games of the set. The Rays had been in a very good spot, offensively speaking, over the last week, slashing .295 BA/.352 OBP/.464 SLG/.816 OPS with a 132 wRC+ and a 5.9 wRAA. If you’re a Rays fan, you hope that the team will flush this and bounce back; after all, now is not the time for a July-like poor spate of play.
Meanwhile, the Guardians struggled over the past week and they’ve lost four of their last six games. They have now dropped 3.5 games behind Minnesota in the AL Central. Overall, the light-hitting team from Cleveland is averaging 3.99 runs per game, yet they averaged two runs fewer than that over the life of their most recent series against Toronto. Over the last week, the Guardians have slashed .199 BA/.251 OBP/.296 SLG/.547 OPS, with a 49 wRC+, and a -12.7 wRAA.
The Rays enter play with an overall 3.79 ERA and 3.89 FIP (3.69 ERA and 3.52 FIP for the starters, 3.91 ERA, and 4.32 FIP for the relievers). Over the last seven days, Tampa Bay maintains a combined 3.68 ERA and 3.56 FIP (2.82 ERA and 2.73 FIP for the starters, 4.57 ERA and 4.22 FIP for the relievers).
Meanwhile, the Guardians’ pitching staff has been solid overall, pitching to an overall 3.77 ERA and 4.13 FIP (3.92 ERA and 4.21 FIP for the starters, 3.53 ERA, and 4.00 FIP for the relievers). They’ve been even better over the last seven days, putting up a combined 2.50 ERA and a 3.41 FIP (2.50 ERA and a 4.15 FIP for the starters, 2.50 ERA and a 1.93 FIP for the relievers).
Tampa Bay went 2-4 against Cleveland last season, with a -4 run differential.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash is expected to turn to Aaron Civale (5-3, 2.55 ERA, 3.43 FIP), Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 3.15 ERA, 3.18 FIP) pending the status of his back, and Zach Eflin (12-6, 3.34 ERA, 2.92 FIP). Terry Francona will counter with Xzavion Curry (3-1, 2.95 ERA, 4.13 FIP), Gavin Williams (1-3, 2.90 ERA, 3.79 FIP), and Tanner Bibee (8-2, 2.92 ERA, 3.74 FIP).
Aaron Civale allowed three earned runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings against the Tiger on Saturday. He struck out four. Civale allowed a leadoff single in each of the first four innings, which led to one run coming across for Detroit in the second, followed by two more in the fourth. He was then relieved by Kevin Kelly in the fifth after allowing a one-out double, marking the first time that Civale has failed to make it through at least five frames since June 14. He had given up two or fewer runs in six consecutive starts coming in, and the nine hits he allowed Saturday matched his season high. All told, Civale owns a 2.55 ERA and a 3.43 FIP, with a 1.09 WHIP, and a 2.82 K/BB across 81.1 innings.
Xzavion Curry allowed two runs on four hits over five innings. He struck out four. In an efficient outing, Curry worked through five innings on just 65 pitches (45 strikes, 69% strike rate). He allowed a pair of runs in the opening frame before dealing four scoreless innings and exiting with a one-run lead. A reliever for most of the season, Curry has now made four starts and appears likely to stick in the rotation. Overall, he owns a 2.95 ERA and a 4.13 FIP, with a 1.16 WHIP, and a 2.65 K/BB across 64 innings on the season. Curry relies primarily on a 93 mph fourseam fastball and an 86 mph slider that has some two-plane movement, also mixing in a 75 mph curveball that has sharp downward bite.
Tyler Glasnow allowed one run on three hits and two walks over seven innings against the Yankees. He struck out eight and threw 94 pitches (61 strikes, 65% strike rate, 18% SwStr%). Glasnow now has eight or more strikeouts in six of his last seven starts while pitching to a 2.08 ERA in that span. He has returned to elite form after missing the first two months of the season with an oblique injury. Overall, Glasnow’s ERA is down to 3.15 with a 3.18 FIP, a 1.08 WHIP, and 4.36 K/BB across 12 starts (68.2 innings) this season.
Gavin Williams allowed one hit and one walk while striking out 12 batters across seven scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The rookie allowed just a first-inning double to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. then retired the final nine batters he faced. Remarkably, this wasn’t the first seven-inning, one-hit, scoreless performance in Williams’ first nine MLB outings, he pitched another in his second career start. He maintains a 2.90 ERA and a 3.79 FIP, with a 1.19 WHIP, and a 2.23 K/BB through 49.2 innings. Williams relies primarily on a whiffy 96 mph fourseam fastball and an 85 mph slider that has some two-plane movement, while also mixing in a 77 mph worm-killer curveball that has exceptional bite.
Zach Eflin allowed one run on four hits over seven innings against St. Louis on Tuesday. He struck out eight. Nolan Arenado’s second inning solo homer accounted for the lone run against the right-hander. Eflin’s held opponents to a run or fewer in four of his last five starts, turning in a 2.25 ERA while issuing just two walks over that span (24 innings). Overall, Eflin owns a 3.34 ERA and a 2.92 FIP, with a 0.97 WHIP, and a 7.59 K/BB through 22 starts (129.1 innings).
Tanner Bibee struck out six while allowing six hits and no walks over seven scoreless innings Tuesday against Toronto. Bibee has been nothing short of spectacular since the start of July, posting a 1.70 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP across 42.1 innings. Overall, he owns a 2.92 ERA and a 3.74 FIP, with a 1.22 WHIP, and a 2.89 K/BB across 101.2 innings. Bibee relies primarily on a 95 mph fourseam fastball and an 85 mph slider that has exceptional depth and sweeps across the zone, while also mixing in a whiffy 84 mph changeup, and a 78 mph curveball that has sharp downward bite.
Noteworthiness
— Andrew Kittredge watch. Tampa Bay could receive reinforcements this week in one, Andrew Kittredge. The right-hander has been with Triple-A Durham for each of his last 10 appearances (10.1 innings). He’s allowed seven earned runs across 13.1 total innings — six of which came in just one-third of an inning in an outing on July 23, and one run five days later, resulting in a bloated 6.41 ERA, but a 3.41 FIP.