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PECOTA projections are in, and the Rays should contend in 2019

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SS Willy Adames is projected to regress according to the 2019 PECOTA projections.

A little more than a week before the start of Spring Training, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2019 season. The Rays have been active this offseason, adding a bevy of new players to the fold, such as Yandy Diaz, Avisail Garcia, and Charlie Morton. Because of the acquisitions, PECOTA forecasts Tampa Bay as the fifth best team in the American League, and the third best team in the AL East with a mean average of 86 wins against 76 losses. Should the Rays end the season as the fifth best team in the AL, they would find themselves in the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Here are a few highlights, as the full projection is available at the Baseball Prospectus site (linked above) with a paid subscription. Note: Any additions or subtractions to or from the roster will affect the mean projection.

Projected 2019 American League Standings. (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the Rays to be, well…the Rays in 2018. Their projected 710 runs are fewer than they plated in 2018, yet three runs better than the Royals, who are projected to end the upcoming season 20 games under .500. The projected .246 BA/.319 OBP/.399 SLG slash line is similar to that of the .258 BA/.333 OBP/.406 SLG line collected by the team last season.
  • PECOTA projects Tampa Bay to allow the fourth fewest runs in the American League at 661 ― 25 fewer than the reigning World Series champions, and one more than the Yankees, Tampa Bay’s closest competitor in that category.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

PECOTA sees Matt Duffy spending the most time at third base, with Joey Wendle getting the majority of reps at second base, Yandy Diaz at first, and Willy Adames at shortstop. Ji-Man Choi could be the primary designated hitter (45% of the time) with Daniel Robertson also slated to see a significant amount of time at the position as well as all over the infield.

Rays player position summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • Not surprisingly, Mike Zunino will get the majority of playing time over Michael Perez (65% vs 35%) behind the plate.
  • Kevin Kiermaier is projected to post the highest position player WARp (2.9) in center, and could slash a .252 BA/.322 OBP/.414 SLG line with 14 home runs and 68 runs across 516 plate appearances. His projected WARp, however, is down from a projected 4.0 a season ago.
  • The ever consistent Matt Duffy is projected to be the best hitter on the team, just ahead of Yandy Diaz and Avisail Garcia, who looks to bounce back from a lackluster 2018 campaign.
  • Tommy Pham and Mike Zunino are projected to combine for 39 homers.

Rays pitching summary (Credit: Baseball Prospectus)

  • PECOTA projects the starting rotation to be Blake Snell (165 IP, 3.3 WARp), Charlie Morton (148 IP, 2.5 WARp), Tyler Glasnow (130 IP, 2.1 WARp), with a casting call of “openers” ahead of Ryan Yarbrough (118 IP, 0.6 WARp), Jacon Faria (71 IP, 0.2 WARp), and Jalen Beeks (70 IP, 0.8 WARp) among others.

  • PECOTA projects the key Rays bullpen pieces as the following: Jose Alvarado (closer), Chaz Roe and Diego Castillo (setup), Oliver Drake, Adam Kolarek, Hunter Wood, Emilio Pagan, Austin Pruitt, Ian Gibaut, Andrew Moore, and Colin Poche — in some variation of the Durham Taxi — as middle-relief.

  • There is one category that I haven’t touched upon yet, and that’s FRAA — fielding runs above average. According to  Baseball Prospectus, FRAA is an “individual defensive metric created using play-by-play data with adjustments made based on plays made, the expected numbers of plays per position, the handedness of the batter, the park, and base-out states.” In other words, the biggest difference between FRAA and similar defensive metrics is the data and philosophy used. While other metrics analyze zone-based fielding data, FRAA focuses on play-by-play data, focusing on the number of plays made compared to the average number of plays made by a player at said position.

  • PECOTA (by way of FRAA) pegs Tampa Bay’s defense to save 20 runs above average — third best in the American League. When compared with the other teams in the AL East, the Rays sit in second place behind the Red Sox (27.6 FRAA). Look on the bright side, the Baltimore Orioles and are projected for a -28.2 FRAA — worst in the American League.

Conclusion

Projecting an upcoming season is not an exact science. Neil Paine (538 blog) said it best:

There’s a statistical limit to how accurate any projection about a team can be in the long run. Years ago, sabermetrician Tom Tango researched the amount of talent and luck that go into team winning percentages and found that chance explains one-third of the difference between two teams’ records. That makes it hard to predict how many times a team will win over a season. The smallest possible root-mean-square error (a mathematical way of testing a prediction’s accuracy) for any projection system over an extended period of time is 6.4 wins. In a single season, forecasters can — and do — beat an RMSE of 6.4. But whenever that happens, it’s due to luck. The amount of random variance that goes into team records makes the 6.4 barrier literally impossible to beat over a large number of seasons. Over time, no forecaster’s system can ever do better.

The Rays ended last season with 90 wins and 72 losses. Their projected 86 win season — 92 or 80, thanks to a six-game margin of error — has got to make us incredibly optimistic for a postseason run.

Tommy Pham wins $4.1-million in arbitration, Rays 2019 promo schedule, Noteworthiness

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Tommy Pham is set to earn $4.1-million in his first time through the arbitration process.

Outfielder Tommy Pham won his arbitration case against the Tampa Bay Rays and is set earn $4.1-million rather than the $3.5-million figure that the team had submitted. This marks the fifth consecutive arbitration case the Rays have lost after going 6-0 under the ownership of Stu Sternberg.

Tampa Bay took a chance on Pham at the trade deadline, and the late-blooming outfielder did not disappoint upon joining the Rays, slashing .355 BA/.452 OBP/.623 SLG/1.075 OPS with seven home runs and 22 RBI in the final 37 games (174 plate appearances) of his 2018 campaign. All told, he has now posted a .279 BA/.375 OBP/.482 SLG/.857 OPS line across 1,458 MLB plate appearances.

Pham was clearly pleased with the outcome of the arbitration case, tweeting:

He, however, acknowledged the difficult nature of the arbitration process in a later tweet.

The team previously lost to Drew Smyly, Jake Odorizzi (twice), and Adeiny Hechavarria, and now are 6-5 overall in arbitration.

Rays release 2019 promotional schedule

On Tuesday, the Rays released their 2019 promotional schedule.

Daniel Russell (DRaysBay) did a bang-up job listing all the Saturday and Sunday promotional items, which you can read below:

Saturday promotional items this year are available to all fans, and include:

  • Blake Snell Cy Zilla Bobblehead (March 30 vs. Astros) presented by DEX Imaging
  • Ryne Stanek Bottle Opener (April 20 vs. Red Sox) presented by Republic Bank
  • Tropical Shirt (May 11 vs. Yankees) presented by TradeWinds Island Resorts
  • Tommy Pham Bobblehead (June 1 vs. Twins) presented by DEX Imaging
  • Short Sleeve Hoodie (June 15 vs. Angels) presented by Tampa Bay Times
  • Umbrella (June 29 vs. Rangers) presented by the Florida Department of Transportation
  • Blake Snell Replica Jersey (July 20 vs. White Sox) presented by Suncoast Credit Union
  • DJ Kitty Mini Speaker (August 3 vs. Marlins)
  • Willy Adames Bobblehead (August 17 vs. Tigers)
  • Tote Bag (August 31 vs. Indians) presented by MLB Network
  • Pajama Pants (September 7 vs. Blue Jays).

Sunday promotional items are for fans 14 years and under and include:

  • Kevin Kiermaier Replica Jersey (March 31 vs. Astros) presented by Tampa General Hospital
  • Daniel Robertson Wristbands (April 21 vs. Red Sox) presented by Moffitt Cancer Center
  • Snapback Hat designed by St. Petersburg multimedia artist Chad Mize (May 12 vs. Yankees) presented by FOX Sports Sun
  • Arm Sleeve (June 2 vs. Twins) presented by FOX Sports Sun
  • Fanny Pack (June 16 vs. Angels) presented by tampabay.com
  • Jedi Joey Wendle Socks (June 30 vs. Rangers) presented by Crown Automotive Group
  • Playing Cards (July 21 vs. White Sox); Backpack (August 4 vs. Marlins)
  • Raymond Bendable Keychain (August 18 vs. Tigers)
  • Toy Truck (September 1 vs. Indians) presented by W.B. Mason
  • Pillowcase Set (September 8 vs. Blue Jays)

Noteworthiness

— With Spring Training just around the corner, Marc Topkin (Tampa Bay Times) listed the 64 players that have been invited to camp, starting next week. The non-roster invitees are marked with an asterisk:

Pitchers (34)

46 José Alvarado (L)
53 Anthony Banda (L)
68 Jalen Beeks (L)
63 Diego Castillo
72 Yonny Chirinos
87 José De León
47 Oliver Drake*
34 Jake Faria
62 Wilmer Font
76 Mike Franco*
92 Ian Gardeck*
58 Ian Gibaut
20 Tyler Glasnow
59 Brent Honeywell Jr.
36 Andrew Kittredge*
56 Adam Kolarek (L)
71 Ryan Merritt* (L)
60 Hoby Milner* (L)
82 Dalton Moats* (L)
49 Andrew Moore
50 Charlie Morton
15 Emilio Pagán
70 Ricardo Pinto*
37 Colin Poche* (L)
45 Austin Pruitt
52 Chaz Roe
73 Casey Sadler*
75 Luis Santos*
4 Blake Snell (L)
55 Ryne Stanek
74 Cole Sulser*
77 Curtis Taylor*
44 Hunter Wood
48 Ryan Yarbrough (L)

Catchers (6)

67 Anthony Bemboom*
19 Nick Ciuffo
78 Mac James*
7 Michael Perez
83 David Rodríguez*
10 Mike Zunino

Infielders (16)

1 Willy Adames
22 Christian Arroyo
64 Emilio Bonifacio*
84 Mike Brosseau*
26 Ji-Man Choi
81 Jake Cronenworth*
2 Yandy Díaz
5 Matt Duffy
86 Lucius Fox*
8 Brandon Lowe
79 Nate Lowe*
28 Daniel Robertson
85 Nick Solak*
11 Andrew Velazquez
18 Joey Wendle
80 Kean Wong*

Outfielders (8)

24 Avisaíl García
54 Guillermo Heredia
39 Kevin Kiermaier
61 Joe McCarthy
17 Austin Meadows
29 Tommy Pham
65 Jesús Sánchez
9 Jake Smolinski*

— Baseball America suggested that while teams are raking in hundreds of millions (yes, even the Rays) — in the very least — they are only committing a fraction of the earnings to the on-field product? shocker, I know.

Rays invite five players to MLB Spring Training including Emilio Bonifacio

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The Rays signed Emilio Bonifacio to a minor league deal on Monday.

On Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays announced invitations for five non-roster players to MLB Spring Training, including veteran utilityman Emilio Bonifacio. The other four are right-handers Ricardo Pinto, Casey Sadler, Luis Santos, and Cole Sulser.

Emilio Bonifacio

Bonifacio did not appear in the majors last year, opening the season on the indie ball circuit with Long Island (Atlantic League) and later joining the Brewers organization — playing five games for Colorado Springs. The MLB veteran slashed a modest .256 BA/.313 OBP/.333 SLG/.646 OPS line with 13 home runs across 2,894 plate appearances, with 165 RBI and 166 stolen bases over parts of 11 seasons in the majors. Bonifacio has spent of his career at second base (201 starts) and centerfield (170 starts) but also has plenty of experience at shortstop (100 starts), third base (135 starts), and both corner outfield spots (106 starts). He has played with the Arizona Diamondbacks (2007-2008), Washington Nationals (2008), Miami Marlins (2009-2012), Toronto Blue Jays (2013), Kansas City Royals (2013), Chicago Cubs (2014), Atlanta Braves (2014, 2016-2017) and Chicago White Sox (2015).

Ricardo Pinto

Pinto, 25, split time last season in the White Sox organization at Triple-A Charlotte and Class-A Winston-Salem, going 3-2 with a 5.95 ERA across 30 appearances including six starts. The right-hander made his big league debut with the Philadelphia Phillies two seasons ago, going 1-2 with a 7.89 ERA/6.36 FIP across 29-2/3 innings (25 outings).

Per Brooks Baseball, Pinto’s four-seam fastball (96 mph) has well above average velocity and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ four-seamers. His changeup (88 mph) is much firmer than usual and has a lot of backspin. His sinker (95 mph) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has well above average velocity and has slight arm side run. His slider (87 mph) has primarily 12-6 movement, generates fewer whiffs/swing compared to other pitchers’ sliders and has less than expected depth. His curve (80 mph) is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers’ curves, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ curves, has a sharp downward bite, is slightly harder than usual and has slight glove-side movement.

Casey Sadler

The 28-year-old Sadler pitched for the Pirates in 2014 and 2015, yet suffered an elbow injury which required Tommy John surgery in November 2015. After a long recovery, the right-hander made it back to the big leagues last August. Over the three seasons, he has pitched in nine Major League games having gone 1-1, with a 6.86 ERA. Sadler remains one out away from hurling his 20th inning. He most of his 2018 campaign at Triple-A, working to a 3.39 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 across 77 innings.

Per Brooks Baseball, his sinker (93 mph) results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has slight arm side run and has some natural sinking action. His cutter (90 mph) is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ cutters and has slightly above average velocity. His curve (82 mph) is much harder than usual, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ curves, has little depth and has slight glove-side movement. His changeup (87 mph) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ changeups, is much firmer than usual, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ changeups, has slight arm side fade and has some natural sink to it.

Luis Santos

Santos, 27, spent parts of the last two season in Toronto, going 1–2 with a 5.15 ERA/50.4 FIP over 25 appearances (36-2/3 IP). Last season, the right-hander pitched in 15 games (one start) in three stints with Toronto, going 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA, notching 20 strikeouts. Santos spent the remainder of the season in Triple-A, going 2-3 with a 2.74 ERA (42-2/3 IP) with 40 strikeouts across 20 appearances (two starts).

Per Brooks Baseball, Santos’ four-seam fastball (94 mph) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ four-seamers, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ four-seamers and has slightly above average velocity. His curve (84 mph) is thrown extremely hard, has very little depth, has primarily 12-6 movement and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ curves. His changeup (87 mph) generates a high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ changeups, is much firmer than usual, has slight armside fade and has some natural sink to it. His sinker (94 mph) generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ sinkers, has slight armside run, has slightly above average velo and has some natural sinking action.

Cole Sulser

The 28-year-old Susler went 20-26 with a 4.02 ERA (378-1/3) in 176 appearances (37 starts) across five minor league seasons in the Cleveland organization. Last season, Sulser split his time between Triple-A Columbus and Double-A Akron, going 8-4 with a 3.86 ERA (60-2/3 IP), performing to a 14.1 K/9 across 47 appearances.

Tropicana Field to go cashless, Rays host optional workout, and Noteworthiness

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Tropicana Field is set to become the first cashless sports facility in North America.

Following news that the Tampa Bay Rays will reduce the seating capacity of Tropicana Field in 2019, the team announced the stadium will become the first cashless sports facility in North America.

According to the press release below, Tropicana Field’s concessions, team stores, box office, and all other points–of–sale will operate cash–free in 2019:

The Tampa Bay Rays announced today that, in collaboration with hospitality partner Levy and analytics and emerging tech firm E15, Tropicana Field will become the first cash–free sports venue in North America.

Tropicana Field’s concessions, team stores, box office, and all other points–of–sale will operate cash–free in 2019. The move follows extensive pilot testing engineered and led by E15 at Tropicana Field and venues nationwide to measure the effects of cash–free transactions. These tests found that transitioning to cash–free environments results in an average transaction time of up to half that of traditional environments that accept cash, resulting in faster moving lines and increased fan satisfaction.

Forms of payment accepted at concession stands and retail stores inside the ballpark will include major credit cards, Rays gift cards, NFC mobile payments such as Apple Pay and Samsung Pay, and Season Ticket Holder Rays Cards. For fans without electronic forms of payment, cash can be exchanged for gift cards in any amount at all retail locations and in $10 or $20 increments through roaming gift card vendors. Tropicana Field’s parking operations will also be cash–free, as they were for the 2018 season.

“We have made significant investments each year to improve the ballpark experience for fans, including an overhaul of our approach to food and beverage since the beginning of our partnership with Levy,” said Rays Vice President of Strategy & Development William Walsh. “This change will increase speed of service and reduce lines throughout the ballpark.”

“Throughout our testing last season at Tropicana Field, we saw thatfans quickly adapted to cash–free environments and loved the resulting benefits to the game–day experience,” said Jaime Faulkner, CEO of E15. “By offering fans a variety of forms of electronic payment, coupled with the ability to exchange cash for gift cards, we can ensure that fans are having frictionless experiences and getting back to enjoy the game.”

Fan Fest on February 9 will be the first cash–free event at Tropicana Field in 2019. A free event, fans are invited to shop at the Rays Baseball Foundation’s Yard Sale, as well as the Rays Republic Team Store and auxiliary shops during Fan Fest. Several concession stands will also be open and will accept digital payments.

Concerned fans have been quick to push back on the new policy. And while the team intends to create a frictionless experience that allows fans to get back the game, the decision ignores how restrictive this can be for low-income households that do not have access to credit cards or are not in a position to load cards with cash they won’t get back later.

Or, in the words of John Romano (Tampa Bay Times), “Going cashless at Tropicana Field carries the unmistakable whiff of arrogance.”

It’s a bold idea, and the Rays say plenty of research indicates it will lead to a better, more streamlined fan experience at the stadium. That may be true in theory. And it may be the wave of the future.

But it ignores the reality that a lot of people, for whatever reason, prefer to use cash. Even worse, this unilateral decision carries an unmistakable whiff of arrogance.

We know what’s best for you.

Essentially, that’s what the Rays are saying. And that’s a horrible message to send when you’re in the business of trying to attract more customers. Especially when you’re the worst in the league at that skill.

Rays have reported interest in utility player Josh Harrison

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The Rays have shown reported interest in free-agent utility player Josh Harrison.

The Tampa Bay Rays are one of five teams that have reported interest in utility player Josh Harrison, tweeted Jon Heyman (Fancred) on Saturday.

The Dodgers, Giants, Angels, and Phillies are also said to be in on the versatile defender.

The 31-year-old Harrison is coming off a below-average season with Pittsburgh, which declined his $10.5-million club option in favor of a $1-million buyout. Yet Harrison has typically been a good offensive player and a solid defender over the span of his career.

Harrison is a .277 BA/.317 OBP/.408 SLG/.725 OPS.98 wRC+ hitter across 3,012 plate appearance. Harrison broke out with a 4.8 fWAR campaign four seasons ago, however, he has averaged a 1.3 fWAR over the past four seasons. Harrison slashed .250 BA/.293 OBP/.363 SLG/.656 OPS with 8 home runs over 374 plate appearances, performing to a 0.3 fWAR in 2018.

The utility player has spent time at second, third and in the corner outfield, although the vast majority of his playing time last season came on the right side of the infield.

While it is uncertain how Harrison could fit into the mix, it is thought he could offer the Rays further protection behind infielders Joey Wendle, Matt Duffy Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, Daniel Robertson, Christian Arroyo, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz, as well as corner outfielders Tommy Pham, Avisail Garcia, and Austin Meadows. It isn’t known whether he can learn first base for the purpose of platooning the position with Ji-Man Choi.