With Grapefruit League underway, the long, not-so-cold, and frankly pretty damn weird offseason has transitioned into an abbreviated Spring Training — a time of optimism and high expectations. For the Tampa Bay Rays, the ultimate goal will be to get back to the postseason for the fourth consecutive season in a row, and ultimately win it all.
Yet, the Rays haven’t won any of the four games they’ve played thus far, and clearly, it’s time to panic … right? Pump the brakes, friend. There’s truly no need to panic. What follows is our annual guide to Spring Training, which includes a healthy dose of look-fors.
Sample sizes are so small that any meaningful conclusion about a player’s performance cannot truly be determined
Everyday starters, and players getting serious roster consideration, typically get around 60 at-bats during the spring. Yet, given this year’s abbreviated schedule, even a 60 at-bat sample size won’t be enough to give an accurate depiction of what to expect out of a batter. Why? Among other things, the first statistic to stabilize for hitters is strikeout percentage, and it takes at least 60 plate appearances to do so. Hitters ultimately aren’t worried about looking for the perfect pitch to clobber, rather they are trying to get their timing down. Anything above and beyond that is the icing on the cake.
Conditions for hitting in south Florida are vastly different than in the Trop
The Rays play in a dome where there is less air resistance on the ball in flight and because of it, wind resistance is not as much of a factor. Compare that with Charlotte Sports Park, where a stiff breeze blowing in can turn a home run into a routine fly ball.
For example, this afternoon Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, and a player on the Pirates came about a biscuit away from driving the ball out of the park if not for the stiff breeze blowing across the field, from left field to right field.
Pitchers aren’t worried about setting up a batter for a punch out, rather they are concerned with staying healthy and building up arm strength
Pitchers are focused on getting ready for the season, not getting batters out. It takes time for pitchers to build up their arm strength. Dips in velocity are going to happen, homers are going to happen, and a pitcher might look like, well…crap prior to Opening Day.
Bear in mind that a handful of poor spring outings likely is not indicative of a pitcher’s regular-season performance.
Pitchers use Spring Training to work on pitches
The time for trial and error is now. Pitchers know that they should not spend their time experimenting with a different variation of a changeup or a slider, for example, during the regular season. That tinkering is generally reserved for side and bullpen sessions, and exhibition games that do not count.
Spring Training offers pitchers a stress-free environment to try out some changes that could be beneficial to their future performance.
Pitchers will often throw a particular pitch on the outside corner to work on their command over the outer half of the plate. Sometimes a pitcher will only work inside and give up a couple of bombs because he missed his spot. At the end of the day, it’s only Spring Training.
Players are going to make errors, and that’s fine
Cloudless skies turn poppers into doubles, and errors from players playing out of position likely would not happen during the regular season. Just today, Randy Arozarena (who had himself a day in the batter’s box) misjudged a popper that eventually bounded away from the outfielder for a Little League triple.
Spring Training is a time for players — many of whom are untested at the Major League level — to prove their worth. Instead, watch how a player jumps on the ball. Is he quick? Does he have good range? Do his movements seem fluid or stilted? What about his arm?
The win-loss record at the end of Spring Training is meaningless
Last season, the Miami Marlins went 14-5 in the Grapefruit League, while Rays went 13-15. I’ll let you guess which team missed the playoffs, and which one earned a spot in the postseason. At the end of the day, the Spring Training record is indicative of nothing.
Make note of who plays where and for how long
The Rays typically experiment with player positioning in exhibition games to see how it works. Who will get more reps on the infield — Taylor Walls or Vidal Brujan? To that end, how much of a competition for playing time at first will there be between the right-handed hitters Yandy Diaz and Luke Raley, and Ji-Man Choi?
Watch for injuries
Less than a week into the Spring Training game action and the injury bug already claimed its first victims: Kevin Kiermaier (stiff back) and Shane Baz (arthroscopic surgery for loose bodies in his throwing elbow).
Baz will be shut down for two-to-three weeks, which would allow him to return to games sometime in May.
There’s never a good time, but if you’re going to pick one, it’s probably right now unless it’s in the off-season. I know he’s frustrated, I know he’s disappointed just because what he accomplished last year and how he helped us at the end of the season, and was looking forward to the beginning. But he’s going to be just fine.
— Kevin Cash
With Baz out of the season-opening rotation mix, the Rays will likely rely on some combination of Shane McClanahan, Corey Kluber, Luis Patiño, Ryan Yarbrough, Josh Fleming, and Drew Rasmussen to start games over the first few weeks.
Pay attention to players coming back from injury
Jalen Beeks took the mound Monday for the first time in 19 months. His fastball sat between 93-95 miles per hour, and he had a sharp changeup in his lone inning of work — collecting both punchouts on that pitch.
That’s where I want to be. Still some things I can get better on, obviously. I got behind on two out of three, only got one first-pitch strike, which I want to get that higher. I want to be 70 percent, which is a goal. I know that’s high. But that’s kind of our motto with the Rays, so I’d like to work on that. But other than that, I mean, went good.
— Jalen Beeks
Meanwhile Colin Poche, Jeffrey Springs, and Corey Kluber — all of which are coming back from their own injuries — looked sharp in their respective turns throwing live batting practice.
Poche, like Beeks, is coming back after missing last season due to Tommy John surgery. He is pleased with where he’s at physically.
It’s great. I’m fully cleared now, so feeling like a normal guy. It’s good to just kind of be on the normal schedule for pitchers instead of the rehab schedule. It’s just great to be back out. Looking to get into games this week, too, so excited for all that.
— Colin Poche
Springs pitched very well for the Rays last season before an ACL injury. He is optimistic about pitching for the Rays at the start of the regular season.
As long as they think my stuff’s good enough, yes sir. That’s the goal. I’ll let them make the decision on that, but my personal goal is, yeah, to be there for Opening Day. Out of my control, obviously, but I’m going to do everything I can do to be ready.
— Jeffrey Springs
Given that he suffered a lower-body injury, Springs is expected to undergo some tests next week, such as jumping off the mound and fielding bunts, which are the remaining hurdles.