In need of a right-handed power bat, the Tampa Bay Rays have shown interest in Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar. According to MLB.com reporter Mark Feinsand, a deal would likely require a player that can help Milwaukee now in order to move the big slugger.
Aguilar was acquired off waivers from Cleaveland before the 2017 season. He spent that campaign in a platoon with Eric Thames at first base, slashing .265 BA/.331 OBP/.505 SLG/.836 OPS with 16 homers and a 113 wRC+. He followed that up with an All-Star 2018, hitting .274 BA/.352 OBP/.539 SLG/.891 OPS with 35 home runs and a 134 wRC+. That production, however, looks like a faint memory.
For his 2019 campaign, Aguilar has hit a meek .230 BA/.328 OBP/.385 SLG/.713 OPS with eight homers, a subpar 83 wRC+, and a major drop in his ISO — from .264 to .155. Still, the 29-year-old has gotten toasty in July, registering above-average production at the plate to the tune of a .342 BA/.395 OBP/.684 OPS/1.079 OPS line across 43 plate appearances with three homers.
Connor Byrne (MLB Trade Rumors) noted another reason to be hopeful for a sustained bounceback from Aguilar.
For all the faults in Aguilar’s bottom-line production, there are reasons for hope. For one, he remains something of a Statcast favorite. There’s a wide chasm between Aguilar’s weighted-on base average (.312) and expected wOBA (.351). He ranks in the league’s 72nd percentile in xwOBA and checks in similarly well in expected slugging percentage (65th) and exit velocity (66th). And contrary to many other power hitters, Aguilar’s not overly prone to striking out. He has fanned a reasonable 22.9 percent of the time (with a better-than-average 12.3 percent walk rate), posted a decent 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate and chased out-of-zone pitches less than most hitters.
— Connor Byrne
Should Milwaukee part with Aguilar, the Rays would land a player that’s cheap now (he’s currently on a near-minimum salary), under team control until 2023, and is slated to take his first of three potential arbitration trips during the upcoming offseason. Tampa Bay has the depth to offer, as the farm system is the deepest in baseball, with eight prospects sitting on MLB Pipeline’s top-100 list.
The Rays have also shown interest in other right-handed hitters in the Rangers’ Hunter Pence and the Tigers’ Nicholas Castellanos.
Noteworthiness
— Along with a right-handed power bat and a relief pitcher, it would appear that the Rays could be in the market for a starter. Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell is set to undergo arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow, on Monday. A corresponding move for Snell is to be determined.
The procedure will remove a loose body from the left-hander’s elbow and will cost the southpaw at least four weeks on the Injured List. The procedure is not considered to be season-ending, and he is expected to return to the mound in September.
We will have more on the situation as it unfolds.