After an abysmal 2-4 start to the 2021 regular season, including three consecutive losses at the hands of the Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays return home to the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, where they will play host to the New York Yankees over the next three days. The Yankees are coming off a series win against the Orioles.
In the span of six ballgames, the Rays have been participants of three blowouts, including two against Boston. Tampa Bay’s vaunted pitching staff couldn’t hold it together against the Red Sox, allowing 26 runners to cross the plate — 11 of which came with two outs. The Rays enter play with a -19 run differential and in the throes of a four-game losing streak.
We just have not been playing good baseball the last couple of days. I think that’s pretty obvious. Offensively, defensively, on the mound at times.
— Kevin Cash
For their part, the Yankees received great work from their pitching staff through the front six games. This, while Tampa Bay has struggled to keep runs off the board. However, no team in the Modern Era has had a perpetual sub-2.00 ERA pitching staff, and while the Yankees have been good thus far, their success is not sustainable. Meanwhile, there have been many teams with a corps of hurlers that have worked to a +5.00 ERA, yet I’d be truly surprised if the Rays are that bad. Put another way, regression is due for both teams at some point … and if you’re a player or a fan, you hope that point is now.
Neither team has been an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, with Tampa Bay slashing just .208 BA/.294 OBP/.337 SLG/.631 OPS/.285 wOBA with an 85 wRC+, and New York slashing .254 BA/.342 OBP/.378 SLG/.720 OPS/.325 wOBA with a 107 wRC+. Interestingly enough though, while they have massively underperformed the Yankees overall, and as it relates to wRAA (weighted runs above average), -4.8 to 2.7, New York has plated just two more runs than Tampa Bay. In other words, if the Rays pitching staff can, somehow, figure out how to keep things together, they will have a fighting chance against the Yankees this weekend.
Last season the Rays went 8-2 in the 10 games against the Yankees and outscored them 47-34. They also won the best-of-five ALDS.
Pitching Probables
Over the next three days, Kevin Cash will turn to Rich Hill (0-0, 9.00 ERA), Chris Archer (0-1, 13.50 ERA), and a hurler or hurlers to be named before the series finale. Aaron Boone will counter with Corey Kluber (0-0, 2.25 ERA), Domingo Germán (0-1, 9.00 ERA), and Jordan Montgomery (1-0, 0.00 ERA).
Rich Hill allowed four earned runs on five hits and two walks across four innings against the Marlins on Saturday. He struck out four. The veteran southpaw worked up to 71 pitches (52 strikes, 73% strike rate) in his planned tandem start with Chris Archer and gave up a run apiece in each of his four frames. Hill allowed a good amount of hard contact — surrendering a pair of doubles and a solo homer — which helped lead to the relatively poor outing. He is 2-2 with a 6.69 ERA in 11 games (three starts) against the Yankees, although he hasn’t faced them since 2016, so take that with a grain of salt.
Corey Kluber tossed four innings on Saturday against Toronto, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks while striking out five. Kluber’s velocity rarely got above 90 mph — down from the average of 92.0 mph he managed in his last healthy season — although it was a decent enough outing in terms of results. He, however, walked two batters in the third inning and uncorked a wild pitch which preceded a throwing error by catcher Gary Sanchez. He later served up a homer to Marcus Semien before being pulled from the game, having thrown 74 pitches. Kluber is 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 10 career starts against the Rays, but 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA in four starts at the Trop. In his injury-marred 2020 campaign, Kluber relied primarily on a 92 mph two-seam sinker and an 84 mph slider, while also mixing in an 89 mph cutter, a 92 mph four-seam fastball, and an 84 mph changeup. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-3), Manuel Margot (1-3), Joey Wendle (2-4, 3B)
Chris Archer entered Saturday’s contest against the Marlins in the fifth inning following Rich Hill and allowed four runs (three earned) on four hits and a walk across two innings. He struck out two. For his part, Archer was able to get first-pitch strikes on eight of the 11 batters he faced, although it took him a whopping 52 pitches to get just six outs. Then again, if his FIP and BABIP against speak to anything, it’s that Archer was the recipient of bad luck due to misplays by the fielders behind him. Yes, he gave up the run-scoring hits and allowed a lot of hard contact, but his final line does not give an accurate depiction of how he performed in his first outing of the season. The right-hander is 6-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 18 career starts against the Bronx Bummers.
Domingo Germán surrendered three runs on four hits and a walk while fanning two across three innings on Sunday against Toronto. Germán tossed nine scoreless frames during Spring Training, striking out 13 and walking just one, yet he wasn’t able to replicate those results in his season debut and lasted just three innings before being lifted. He is 3-0 with a 5.14 ERA in five outings (four starts) against Tampa Bay, and 1-0 with an 8.10 ERA in three outings (two starts) at Tropicana Field. In 2019, his last big league season, Germán relied primarily on an 82 mph curveball and a 94 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 87 mph changeup and a 94 mph sinker. Key Matchups: Yandy Diaz (2-6, HR, RBI), Brandon Lowe (1-3), Austin Meadows (3-6, 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI)
TBA
Jordan Montgomery scattered four hits across six scoreless frames in Monday’s win over Baltimore. He struck out seven. Montgomery was terrific from the jump, retiring the first six batters he faced while allowing just one baserunner through the front four innings. The only time he was in danger was in a first-and-third situation during the fifth inning, although he managed to escape the threat with a timely groundout. The southpaw is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six starts against the Rays. Last season, Montgomery relied primarily on a 93 mph sinker, an 83 mph changeup, an 81 mph curveball, and a 93 mph four-seam fastball, while also mixing in an 89 mph cutter. Key Matchups: Willy Adames (1-2, 2B), Randy Arozrena (1-1, HR, 2 RBI), Mike Brosseau (1-1, HR, 2 RBI), Yandy Diaz (1-2, 2 RBI), Manuel Margot (1-1, 2B), Austin Meadows (2-2)
Noteworthiness
— The Rays announced their food and beverage offerings for the 2021 season, which you can read about here.
— The Rays made a slew of roster moves on Friday, one of which is unfortunate as Pete Fairbanks was placed on the 10-Day Injured List with a right rotator cuff strain.
Fairbanks says he felt the injury the day after pitching in Boston. He hasn’t had a shoulder injury before, but after getting examined doesn’t think it’s severe. Rays skipped Kevin Cash said that Pete Fairbanks would be shut down for two-to-three weeks before the resumption of throwing.
Meanwhile, C Joseph Odom was designated for assignment to make room for RHP Hunter Strickland. OF Brett Phillips activated from the IL, while C Deivy Grullon cleared intake protocols and will report to the alternate training site, in Port Charlotte.